下半环保行业投资策略.ppt

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1、58,12,100701,100901,101101,110101,110301,110501,2011,6,29,201109021-,S1010510120063,2015,10%,07,10,200,021-68761840,2015,50%,S1010510120066,300,260,2020,80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%,300,P/E,2009,-20.0%,40%/,10,40%,10A,EPS11E,12E,10A,P/E11E,12E,P/B,PEG,2011P/E=30,49.5539.3017.15,0.630.550.41,1.611.310.95

2、,2.751.921.08,797142,313018,182016,11.29.09.6,1.00.90.9,25.63,1.10,1.39,1.73,23,18,15,10.1,1.0,1,23.1345.0919.35,0.500.850.35,0.701.410.54,1.002.190.74,465355,333236,232126,3.216.14.4,1.21.01.0,2,2011,5,2011-05-09,15.14,0.36,0.53,0.72,42,29,21,3.3,1.1,2011,4,.,13.1410.35,0.420.21,0.670.37,0.770.50,3

3、149,2028,1721,5.83.4,1.01.1,3,.2011-04-11,14.29,0.30,0.43,0.58,48,33,25,5.3,1.3,2011-03-24,2011,6,17,200,300,2011,.1,.2,.2,.3.4,.5,.5.6,.8,.12,.12.14.18.19.19,.21,.21.22.24.26.26,.29,.29,.30.32,.33,.34,.34,.34.36,1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,13,14,15,16,18,19,20,21,22,27,28,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,2011.1,28,NPL

4、,3R,.2.2.2.3.4.5.5.6.6,11 198012 2000,.7.7.9.9.9.9,17,SITE,.10,.10.11.12.12.12,23 200924 200925 200926 200929 2005 201130 2005 2011,.13.13.13.13.14.14.16.16.17.21.21.22.25.25.27.27,40,41,42,43,44,47,48,49,2,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,19,20,21,2011,39,/,.27.27MBR+NF/RO.27.27.28.29,45 2006 202046

5、2006 202050 TCL,.30.30.32.32.33.33,51 2011,300,.34,52,2011,6,17,.34,53 2009,P/E,TTM,.35,541 2005,2011,P/E.35.3.3,3,5+1,.4.5.6.7.7,8,2011,.8,.8.9.10.10.11.15.15.16,17 2011,.17,18 2009 2011,BOT,.17.18.19.19,22,23,24,25,27,28,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,2011.20,2010 2

6、011,.20,.22.22,2629 2011,.23.23.23.24.25.25.26.26.26.28.29.29.30.31.31.31.32.33.33.35.36.37.38.40.41,2011,2011,3 4,17,2011,P/E,30,TTM P/E,2009,2012 2013,40%,20111,200,2011,5,300260zzz,z,TCL,2011,6,29,1,2011,Recycle,Reduce,Reuse,-,-,2,3R,4201325.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%,110,SO2,COD,460%50%40%30%20%1

7、0%0%,660,2009,1,2011,6,29,2,20111 20052005.102007.032008.082011.035,2,20,90,2011,6,29,3,20116,1993,20001995199820002000,20012000200120012002,4 4 4 5 5,1994,20002001,2000,200220002000,200420012001,12 4 4,1972199219921999199919981988196819702002196819721997,3,5+1,2011,6,29,4,201150%,18,1.5,3,250200,1,

8、000,200,1,20023.5%,1/10,7,10%2010,14,20118,1 5NPL,7,13%,31%,60%54%50%40%,48%,40%39%38%,37%,51%,46%,35%35%35%33%,30%20%13%10%0%,16%,20%,4DNA,2011,6,29,5,6,6,2011,20,90,2011,2,2003,5200320042006200620082008200920092009201020109,12671691212,/20102010,1,000,2010,10250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000,15,

9、2050,201190,1,600,32,VOC,13,2011,6,29,6,20116,10,9271,2602000,5.4,595,1980,24,11,1980,12,2000,7,20082010,2010,137,48,2,2008 20102012,29,73,52,32010,110,34,20152010,30327,136,20072008,22,4,13,49,3,17,327,2012,105,127,19,21,2009,9,30,13,2010,12,31,2011,2010,10,4,2,7,153,2011,6,29,7,20112009+2011,5,31,

10、130,24.4112,2011,3,8,1,2011,2,325,/,10,0006,5004007752,325,35%23%,U.S.EPA,SVE,1982 2002/,764,9/,/,/,66.66Pa,25%,/,10-3cm/s0.01,2011,6,29,8,),),2011,(150,540,(,150,315,),(,131518016014012010080604020,315,540,141625020015010050,1.2.3.,0,/,0,/,+10m3,2007200720082008,65,000140,0002,0008,000,2011,6,29,9,

11、2011m3,20082009,52,00010,000,2010,6,2010,U.S.EPA,MEP,/,GB5085.3-200711(90%,12,2010,60,1,000,/m3,PH,PH2,13,17,SITE,18,2011,6,29,10,201113ERMSITE1958%30%,2011,6,29,11,201120,21,22,2.9,/,23,/,2007,970,/,2009,1,153,/,/,6.5%,2011,6,29,12,/,/,2011,2310,0008,000,2009,9,052,24400300,2009371,279,6,0002004,00

12、0,2,00002009,2647.6%31,1,153,10%28,100070%,320,20%,24200,186,/,119,/,6,2550%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,2009,6.5%,261,2001,0008006004002000,2009,/,2011,6,29,13,2011,2740%35%,5,40030%,2009,28140%130%120%,40%,24.7%,30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,24.7%,100%80%60%40%20%0%,80%,74%,59%,53%,30%,25%23%22%21%,2%,2011,

13、2011,6,29,14,201114,2005,4,2006,12,2010,5%10%,20,15,20082010200920092009201020102010201020102010,124479478111112,2011,18,2011,1,25,8,2011,2,90%,30%,80%,20112011,44,30%,20112011,45,201540%,75%,2015,90%,2011,6,29,15,/,2011AA,16,A,mg/L,CODBOD5,16.52.0,5010,5010,5010,6010,SS,1,3,10,10,5,5,5,10,15,0.30.1

14、,50.5,1,10,51,2.5,2011,5,6,7.5,40%60%,80%,16,2011,1 3,-5.68%,123,29,2005,2011,30,2005,2011,ROE,60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%,4.54.03.53.02.52.0,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009 2011M3,200601,200701,200801,200901,201001,201101,CEIC2011,2011,6,29,16,-,2011,17,2011,11.03.14,1.4,/,1.6,/,0.4,/,0.

15、6,/,10%,11.03.16,10%,4,20%,10%,20%,5,20%,11.03.17,32011,19,2012,7,1.80,3.00,1.46,1.55,2.50,1.39,11.03.25,2011,4,1,2.42,/,2.84,/,11.03.25,4.3,/,0.95,1.8,10.0,/,6,10,11.04.25,2.7,1.3 3,4,1.3,3,5,10,11.05.03,5,1,0.30,0.80,11.05.26,6,1,0.176,0.1395,11.05.30,31121086420,/,2009 2011,BOT,BOT,60%,BOT,18,200

16、9,2011,BOT,/,/,BOT,5,00030,00030,000100,00030,00030,000,2,0005,28018,3007,50022,33210,000,BMBR/,AA,2009.112009.12010.102010.102010.112011.32011.3,2011,6,29,17,20111/,2011,18,A,20102010,12,23.42015,5.7,25,6.2,19A,CODBOD5SS,204510 15,306515 20,60202030,50101015,10.2,1.50.3,105,5,80.5,zz,1,/,1.5 2,70 7

17、5,/,88,/,20%,A,2006,6,2011,6,29,18,/,/,/,/,2011MBR CMF20,+,2.51.00.4,3.01.50.7,/,0.15 0.421/,21,000,2005,GE,200,150,000100,00050,00050,00050,00030,000600,0001,000,000,MBRMBRCMFCMF,CMF,20092009201020102010201120112011,zz,100,1,000130,7%,15%20%,20%,22%,13%,201523030%35%5,000,25%/,2011,6,29,19,/,5,4,20

18、1122,MBR,350200,/,MBR CMFMBR CMF,70,TOT BOT,2010,700BOT,/TOT,BT,MBRMBR,+,(BOT,MF+ROMBR CMF,2009,7,2011zzz23,5,20102010 2011,10,/,10060126.8,CMFCMFCMFCMFMBRMBR,201020102010201020102010,2011,6,29,20,5,5,5,4,2,2,2,5,2011/,MBRMBRMBRMBR,2010201020102010,32,13%,12%,1,000,33,2.515101530290.3,19%,MBRMBRMBRM

19、BRMBRMBRMBRMBRMBRMBRMBR,20102010201020102010201020102011201120112011,20%,55%,81%,2011,6,29,21,20112434201025,20102010,57,201120112011,345,1002015,50%,2011,6,29,22,201126200527200520062006200720072007200720072008201120112011201128-,2011,6,29,23,20112011,29,2011,t/d,200,10,000,BOT,150-,-,BOT,6,2011,9,

20、200500,5,600-,1,000-,-,2011,2015,7,5,5,11%,zzz,2011,6,29,24,till1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,Averagesizeplants(kTON/y),InstalledCapacity(kTON/y),-,-,201130-,20,70,201/4,35Annual capacityCumulative average capacity6,000,Cumul

21、ative capacity35,36,5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000031JVVOy,Luc De Baere,Bottrop,302520151050,TS30,000t/a,BTATBWBiocomDrancoValorgaKompogas,HelsingorBTA/CarlBroThronhofenBrechtAmiensKompogas,20,000t/a13,000t/a12,000t/a85,000t/a12,000t/a,150m3/t150m3/t130m3/t100m3/t,2011,6,29,25,-,-,-,-,2011323002009,33,36

22、,160,300,/,0.04,50%,-,3636,/,5024,427892,20093636,/,15,73424,4273,090,-3,982,37,759,37,759,1,37862,1862,270,4,77762,1867,867,6,15510,137,36,60%,36,20%,-,40%,10%,36,7376149,36,8565150,158141299,34T/D,-BGB,400,200200167100,5,10023,000,2011,6,29,26,/,3,2011,37,167T/d12.5%13.125Nm3/d1MW,500T/d12.5%39.37

23、5Nm3/d3MW,38,WEHRLE,Umwelt GmbH,Rytec,45,000t,+5,000t,500,m3,39,1,055/,kWh,40,BiowasteMunicipalsolid waste,MechanicalPretreatmentPercolation and hydrolysisMechanical,ValuablesubstancesHamfulsubstancesOff-gasto biofilter,Aeration,Anaerobic digestion,dewatening,Percotrateto biologicalstabizationBiogas

24、,Separationof inert,substances,Aeration,Treatedwater,To percolation,To percolation,41,Denitrification Nitrification Separated,MBR+NF/RONaofiltration unit,42,Waste Water,ultrafiltration unit,Off gas exhaust,First-stage First-stagedenitrification nitrificationUntreated water,Secondaydenitrification,Se

25、condaynitrification,Remaining,Remaining sudgeEffluent drainage,siudge disposal,returned sludgeAeration oxygen,Buffer tank,Concentrated fluid,blast aeration,To secondary settling tankor other clarificating angseparting unit,2011,6,29,27,201143/,Anlieferung undAufbereitung,Fermenter(Garreaktor),Pressg

26、ebaude,Biofilter,Trockenboxen Auslierung,zzz35-BGB-,2011,6,29,28,20113637/44,2011,6,29,29,06A,07A,08A,09A,06A,07A,08A,09A,13E,15E,20E,11E,13E,15E,20E,11E,2011,1.1,2015 20207.2%,4.8,6.8,2009,45,2006,2020,46,2006,2020,80,00060,000,1,000800,60040,000400,20,0000,2000,105.4,2009,55.0%49.0%,162.2,64.2%,35

27、.7%189.5,20032009,2011,1,1,2010382003200620072009201020102010,2011,6,29,30,20113914,000W40,41,1 22011 2013,19 26,5 15,2011E,2012E,2013E,43,58019,80016,11146,41664,493190,400,47,93823,76019,33451,05769,454211,543,52,29627,72022,55655,69974,415232,686,47,06821,38417,40049,20167,718202,770,51,77425,661

28、20,88054,12172,927225,362,56,48129,93724,36059,04178,136247,955,50,83323,09518,79152,15371,104215,975,55,91627,71422,55057,36876,573240,121,60,99932,33326,30862,58382,043264,266,24.0%,20.3%,2011,6,29,31,/,2011,47,48,4%,3%3%,10%,7%11%50%55%40%17%,42,TCL,TCL,/,530,0006,00052,0007,20024.0%,530,0006,000

29、52,0006,09020.3%,2011,1,1,/,/,/,/,zzz,105,57,2020,3,000,/,95,260,2011,6,29,32,/,-,201143,/,3,000,/,/,29510519057,61329531895,963613350105,-257,TCL44,200/,50,000,TCL49,TCL50 TCL,10/5/20/1/,30,00030,0008,000-,5TCL,2011,6,29,33,110104,110201,110215,110301,110315,110329,110412,110426,110510,110524,11060

30、7,110118,2011zzzzzz,2011,6,17,300,8.36%,3 4,5 6,20.69%,12.33,20%,2.38%17,2011,P/E,30,TTM P/E,2009,2012 2013,40%,51,2011,300,52,2011,6,17,10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%,Wind,300,5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%-40.0%-45.0%-50.0%-55.0%,Wind,2011,6,29,34,090109,090313,09050

31、8,090703,090828,091023,091218,100212,100416,100806,100930,110121,110318,110513,101126,100611,2011,53,2009,P/E,TTM,54,2011,P/E,706050403020,TTM P/E,454035302520151050,Wind,Wind,6,17,/zzz,z45,TCL,10A,EPS11E,12E,13E,10A,11E,P/E,12E,13E,P/B,PEG,49.5539.3017.1525.6323.1345.0919.3515.1413.1410.3514.29,0.6

32、30.550.411.100.500.850.350.360.420.210.30,1.611.310.951.390.701.410.540.530.670.370.43,2.751.921.081.731.002.190.740.720.770.500.58,3.703.091.242.031.363.011.250.960.930.650.75,7971422346535542314948,3130181833323629202833,1820161523212621172125,1313141317151516141619,11.29.09.610.13.216.14.43.35.83

33、.45.3,0.980.920.941.031.171.011.051.091.031.081.33,2011,6,17,2011,6,29,35,4,/,201158.3%,1,000,927,595,3,60%,30,20%,2010,EPC BOT EMC3,2011 2013,EPS,1.61/2.75/3.70,2010,0.63,80%,1.2,1.3,PEG,66,2011 2013,P/E,41/24/18,46,2009254,2010289,2011E693,2012E1,159,2013E1,528,YoY%YoY%EPS%PEPBEV/EBITDA,EPSROE%,26

34、.33568.20.530.5325.934.32.069424.160,13.54218.10.630.6326.934.12.447920.351,139.9107157.31.611.4228.212.412.96313.823,67.318471.12.752.3928.218.514.89183.315,31.924734.53.703.4028.421.217.48132.812,2011,6,17,2011,6,29,36,/,/,2011,1,000,350,400,200230MBRB,2011 2013,EPS,1.31/1.92/3.09,2010,0.55,78%MBR

35、MBR,2013,P/E,39/27/17,1.2,PEG,51,2011,47,2009314,2010500,2011E1,206,2012E1,612,2013E2,524,YoY%YoY%EPS%PEPBEV/EBITDA,EPSROE%,6.91076.00.330.3348.133.42.9211913.530,59.617765.10.550.5548.66.019.97722.014,141.0424139.51.311.2149.813.59.70304.121,33.662046.41.921.7750.717.211.14203.515,56.699860.93.092.

36、6850.822.913.45132.99,2011,6,17,2011,6,29,37,/,2011,99%,36.13%,2010,2011,7,1,2009,71%,2015,80%,100,WWAG500T/D,3.5 4.9,2009 20106.9,2009,130%,90%,20112013,2011 2013,0.2 0.7 1.1,1.5,/,IPO,5.7,/,1.4,/,300,2011 2013,EPS,1.41/2.19/3.01,2010,0.85,52%,A,1.2,PEG,53,2011 2013,P/E,38/24/18,48,2009112,2010210,

37、2011E373,2012E564,2013E801,YoY%YoY%EPS%PEPBEV/EBITDA,EPSROE%,126.026116.70.500.5045.231.92.109021.541,87.94570.40.850.8542.438.12.985315.128,77.77565.31.411.5639.87.917.90322.520,51.311655.62.192.2639.711.319.43212.314,42.115937.23.013.0639.114.021.54152.111,2011,6,17,2011,6,29,38,2011,20091126145.2

38、4%344.02%108.71%10.86%03128.20%0031515.53%02623.73%,201021012142.35%694.17%209.39%10.62%05325.37%1054916.22%04521.52%,2011E37322439.78%9164.20%359.50%-2-0.46%08823.57%00881315.00%07520.01%,2012E56434039.74%14244.20%549.50%-5-0.92%013724.24%001372015.00%011620.59%,2013E80148839.14%20344.20%769.50%-5-

39、0.66%018823.40%001872815.00%015919.88%,20095821392113820901114919241962044664029,20107670683124531152240285507530156011111674029,2011E6179016563935144114381971,13220101521730111118353794,2012E624136250961,105151112221861,29220153782510111126253794,2013E6391953551371,326142111221751,50220220110349011

40、1136053794,830149,1180285,94901,132,1,03001,292,1,14101,502,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,26,45,75,116,159,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,0,0,0,0,0,%,2-132,2-271,11-1050,12-87-4,12-109-4,126.090.8116.7,87.969.070.4,77.765.165.3,51.355.655.6,42.137.237.2,17,22,-19,38,59,%,-6,-23,-167,-2,-1,45.2,42.4,39.8,

41、39.7,39.1,000,00-1,000,000,000,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,30.231.723.7,25.926.921.5,23.626.620.0,23.525.720.6,22.924.519.9,-6,-23,-167,-2,-1,%,059,077,778-30,00,00,31.917.8,38.115.8,7.96.6,11.39.0,14.010.6,-11,-11,-22,-35,-48,%,-39921,-392726,2727541,5-307,5-4215,44.215.537.5,58.416.258.7,16.215.030.0

42、,20.315.030.0,24.015.030.0,2011,6,29,39,/,20112009,1,/,5,/,5%,20%,1,500,1,30030%,2009,1.5,/,9,000,/,50%,2011 2013,EPS,0.54/0.74/1.25,2010,0.35,53%,P/E,41/30/18,1.2,PEG,22,2011 2013,49,2009368,2010570,2011E733,2012E879,2013E1,167,YoY%YoY%EPS%PEPBEV/EBITDA,EPSROE%,38.75714.30.230.2334.020.14.05824.815

43、,55.08650.40.350.3535.68.18.69552.218,28.613051.90.540.5933.911.04.88364.022,19.917937.60.740.8935.113.15.62263.417,32.830470.01.251.3639.818.26.88152.812,2011,6,17,2011,6,29,40,/,2011,2007 2010,6,+,20133.53,68%8%10%200,162%,2011 2013,EPS,0.53/0.72/0.96,2010,0.36,40%,1.2,1.3,PEG,18,2011 2013,P/E,34/

44、25/19,50,2009527,2010652,2011E919,2012E1,228,2013E1,633,PEPB,YoY%YoY%EPS%,EPSROE%,49.213266.40.300.3056.7829.611.015115.1,23.516222.20.360.3655.0026.631.374211.1,41.023545.40.530.5254.4314.223.72294.1,33.632136.60.720.7054.5816.634.34213.5,32.942532.30.960.9254.7418.505.16162.9,2011,6,17,2011,6,29,4

45、1,2011,200952822856.8%28115.3%8215.6%142.6%(0)10820.5%4421501510.0%313225.1%,201065229355.0%49714.9%9614.8%111.6%(0)13220.2%481179168.8%116224.8%,2011E91941954.4%513514.7%13014.1%10.2%(1)21423.3%5012632610.0%223525.6%,2012E1,22855854.6%617814.5%16613.5%(5)-0.4%(1)30825.1%5313603610.0%332126.2%,2013E

46、1,63373954.7%822914.0%21213.0%(4)-0.3%(1)42426.0%5514794810.0%642526.0%,200940898193303119049101784815040159250311322828350,201060971166333617105777304640119431423042513383429687,2011E401137160132831311056474141,2452062225307171330337128599,2012E4291832171781,007332055284141,421208328739012132541512

47、8599,2013E5062332802271,245323054183941,6402010535347871320499128599,1990481,2980640,90801,245,1,00601,421,1,14101,640,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,150,179,263,360,479,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,-15,-16,-26,-36,-48,%,0111-227,0208-341,40-20914,47-22311,51-32019,49.2111.366.4,23.521.922.2,41.062.545.

48、4,33.6%43.9%36.6%,32.937.732.3,20,30,82,158,180,%,-25,-15,-478,-200,-130,56.8,55.0,54.4,54.6,54.7,00-1,00-3,-100,-100,-100,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,30.530.525.1,28.928.924.8,28.633.025.6,28.732.526.2,28.731.826.0,-26,-19,-479,-201,-131,%,00,00,846-172,0-42,051,29.616.0,26.616.1,14.212.3,16.614.5,18.

49、515.7,0,0,-36,-47,-64,%,180180174,-50-50-39,-1637240,5-84-126,4-940,47.310.015.1,40.08.822.2,14.310.020.0,13.510.020.0,16.110.020.0,2011,6,29,42,-,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report containedherein hereby certify that:

50、(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analystabout the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this res