METALS&MINING:BASEMETALS:COPPERPRICESTCRCTODRIVECOPPEREARNINGSIN;BUYJXC(A)0125.ppt
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1、,%Up/dow n,Price,January 25,2013China:Metals higher prices and TC/RC boost earnings,Global industrial recovery to spur demand growth in 2013.Our GlobalECS Team estimates 2013 global economic growth of 3.3%(3.1%in 2012).,OUR NEW TARGET PRICES AND RATINGSCompany Ticker Rating 12M TP,We expect growth i
2、n Chinas property market in 2013 will increase copperdemand in downstream industries like home appliances,and overseas,JXC(A)Zijin(A)Zhongjin Gold,600362.SS601899.SS600489.SS,BuyBuyBuy,29.304.4018.70,18.7%14.0%11.8%,demand(US property and emerging markets)will boost global copperdemand.We see 2013 g
3、lobal/China copper demand growth of 3.8%7%.,Shandong GoldTonglingChalco(A),600547.SS Neutral000630.SZ Neutral601600.SS Sell,39.2916.513.30,2.3%-13.0%-36.9%,Yunnan Copper,000878.SZ,Sell,8.30,-45.4%,Demand growth and loose monetary policy will drive higher copper,prices in 2013.In addition to demand g
4、rowth,we believe looser monetarypolicy worldwide will be a factor supporting higher 2013 copper prices.Weestimate copper prices will rise 6.3%in 2013 to US$8,458/t.However,ourGlobal Commodity Team expects copper prices will fall to US$7,250/t in2014 due to additional supply coming on stream and a dr
5、op in demand.,Note:Target prices are in Rmb.*indicates the stock is onour regional Conviction List.Share prices as of January 21,2013.12-m TPs based on EV/GCI vs.CROCI/WACC(Directors Cut).Downside risks:Lower-than-expectedcopper prices.Upside risks:Large-scale economic stimulusfrom the Chinese gover
6、nment.Source:DataStream,Gao Hua Securities Research estimatesKEY GS/GH 2013 COPPER A-SHARE ESTIMATES,TC/RC recovery and a narrower Shanghai-London price spread willbenefit copper company earnings.Refining is a significant portion of,Net profitgrow th,Copperconcentrateself-supplied,PE,PB,ROE,Chinese
7、copper firms revenues.We think refining earnings will be benefitfrom a recovery in copper TC/RC fees and a narrower SH-LME price spread.,TonglingJXC(A)Yunnan Copper,43%22%150%,5%20%15%,20.413.8,2.21.83.1,12%14%1.5%,JXC(A)up to Buy;Tongling at Neutral,Yunnan Copper at SellJiangxi Copper is our top on
8、shore copper pick due to its:1)leading selfsufficiency in copper concentrate,and 2)competitive mine copperproduction costs.This should leave JXC(A)best positioned to benefit fromthe strong copper pricing outlook in 2013.We upgrade JXC(A)to Buy fromNeutral with a Directors Cut-based 12-m target price
9、 of Rmb29.30(19%upside).For more details on JXC(A),please see Post-holiday restocking todrive further rally;favor cement,copper,published on January 25,2013.Tongling:Main beneficiary of 2013 TC/RC rise.In addition to highercopper prices,Tonglings higher imported copper concentrate percentagemeans it
10、 will benefit more from higher TC/RC fees and a narrower SH-LMEprice spread.We resume coverage of Tongling with a Neutral rating and aDirectors Cut-based 12-m target price of Rmb16.51(13%downside).Yunnan Copper:Little room for earnings growth.The firm saw losses in1Q-3Q12,and we see cost pressures c
11、ontinuing through 2014,makingearnings improvements unlikely.We resume coverage of Yunnan with aSell rating and a Directors Cut target price of Rmb8.30(45.4%downside).,Source:Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.RELATED RESEARCHChina:Metals supplydivergence still a key,December 4,2012Metal Detector:
12、Base metals outlook:Copper remains attractive,nickel to underperform,October 15,2012,Jefferson Zhang+86(21)2401-8945 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company LimitedJulian Zhu+852-2978-7367 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.Yi Zhu+852-2978-1370 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Goldman Sachs do
13、es and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decisio
14、n.For Reg AC certification and otherimportant disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analystswith FINRA in the U.S.Global Investment Research,4,5,10,13,19,21,23,30,2,January 25,2013Table of contentsOverview:We are
15、 optimistic about copper in 2013,Buy JXC(A)Demand recovery and QE to support copper prices in 2013Chinas copper industry in 2013:Refining to play bigger roleA-share copper firms:Jiangxi Copper has stable fundamentalsUsing Directors Cut to compare non-ferrous metal valuationsJiangxi Copper(600362.SS)
16、:The best onshore copper play;BuyYunnan Copper(000878.SZ,Sell):Short-term improvement unlikelyTongling(000630.SZ,Neutral):Higher 2013 TC/RC to drive earningsDisclosure AppendixAll prices mentioned in this report are as of market close January 21,2013.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,China:Me
17、tals&Mining:Base Metals38,3,January 25,2013Exhibit 1:Valuation summary for global non-ferrous metals stocks under GS/GH coverage,China:Metals&Mining:Base Metals,GS/GH,21-Jan-13,EPS,P/E(X),P/B(X),EV/EBITDA(X),ROE,Ticker,Rating,Price,Ccy,12M TP,2012E,2013E,2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E,2012E,2013E,2012E,201
18、3E,China-A share,Zijin Mining(A)Zhongjin GoldJiangxi Copper(A)Tongling Non-ferrousShandong GoldYunnan CopperChalco(A),601899.SS600489.SS600362.SS000630.SZ600547.SS000878.SZ601600.SS,BuyBuyBuyNeutralNeutralSellSell,3.8616.7224.6818.9938.4215.205.23,CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY,4.4018.7029.3016.5139.298.303.
19、30,0.230.591.460.651.640.03(0.40),0.300.751.790.931.990.07(0.16),16.528.416.929.123.4,13.022.313.820.419.3,3.04.82.02.57.03.11.5,2.54.01.82.25.33.11.6,8.812.612.215.213.418.851.3,7.110.19.811.511.116.919.7,19%18%12%9%35%1%-11%,21%20%14%12%31%1%-5%,Median-A share metals companies,23.4,19.3,3.0,2.5,13
20、.4,11.1,12%,14%,HK-H share,Jiangxi Copper(H)Zijin Mining(H)Zhaojin Mining(H)China MolybdenumChalco(H),0358.HK2899.HK1818.HK3993.HK2600.HK,Buy*BuyNeutralNeutralSell,21.653.1612.064.183.96,HKDHKDHKDHKDHKD,26.403.6012.803.912.40,1.460.230.620.23(0.40),1.790.300.760.23(0.16),11.910.815.614.8,9.78.512.71
21、4.3,1.41.93.61.40.9,1.31.73.11.31.0,8.96.19.89.042.3,6.94.97.97.916.3,12%19%25%10%-11%,14%21%26%9%-5%,Median-H share metals companies,13.4,11.2,1.4,1.3,9.0,7.9,12%,14%,US,Vale,VALE,Buy,20.02,USD,29.30,1.12,2.50,17.8,8.0,1.4,1.3,8.4,4.9,8%,16%,Freeport-McMoRan Copper&GoFCX,Neutral,33.64,USD,38.00,3.0
22、6,5.15,11.0,6.5,1.8,1.4,5.1,3.2,18%,24%,AlcoaSouthern Copper Corp.,AASCCO,NeutralNeutral,9.0041.26,USDUSD,10.0037.00,0.232.68,0.502.15,38.315.4,18.219.2,0.76.9,0.76.1,8.59.6,7.111.4,2%50%,4%34%,Median-US metals companies,16.6,13.1,1.6,1.3,8.4,6.0,13%,20%,Australia,OceanaGold,OGC.AX,Buy*,2.77,AUD,4.4
23、0,0.05,0.44,61.9,6.7,1.3,1.2,7.6,3.0,2%,19%,Lynas,LYC.AX,Buy,0.63,AUD,0.82,(0.05),(0.04),1.9,1.8,-15%,-13%,Teranga GoldAluminaAlacer GoldIluka Resources,TGZ.AXAWC.AXAQG.AXILU.AX,NeutralSellNeutralSell,2.141.124.519.70,AUDAUDAUDAUD,1.790.823.937.83,0.26(0.02)0.330.90,0.16(0.04)0.440.58,8.714.410.8,13
24、.710.816.9,1.71.10.92.6,1.51.10.82.5,4.621.24.05.6,5.229.83.27.9,16%-2%9%24%,12%-4%8%15%,Median-Australian metals companies,10.8,13.7,1.7,1.5,5.1,6.6,9%,8%,*Indicates the stock is on our regional Conviction Buy/Sell list.Target prices of US stocks are based on a 6-month timeframe.Source:Datastream,G
25、oldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,4,January 25,2013,China:Metals&Mining:Base Metals,Overview:We are optimistic about copper in 2013,Buy JXC(A)Copper prices,TC/RC to drive copper earnings in 2013Global industrial recovery to
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