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1、 Chinas exchange rate policy to the evaluationAbstract: this article from the four aspects of RMB exchange rate policy, that in the past five years, Chinas trade imbalances and exchange rate system is getting worse and worse, no sign of improvement; The existing international organization for its me

2、mbers though exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but have no enforcement; The current Chinese exchange rate policy, no matter to China, the United States, or any other country is bad; For Chinas exchange rate policy, at present there are generally an error, which greatly, rapid appreciation

3、of the RMB not feasible, not suitable for; China should immediately be RMB exchange rate from the current level to rise by 10-15 percent.I. introduction and previewThank you Mr. Chairman gave me the opportunity to speak to me Chinese exchange rate policys views. First of all, in the past five years,

4、 Chinas exchange rate policy reform in the slow progress; Secondly, Id like to say why Chinas exchange rate reform statement to the Chinese economy will slow progress, the American economy, international monetary system, and the global trading system have an important impact on; Again, I mainly expo

5、unds the relevant Chinese exchange rate reform is slow excuse and cant convincing alibi and reasons; Fourth, about Chinas exchange-rate policy of several erroneous zone. At last, I in China in the next one to two years, in promoting exchange rate reform can and should take some action, I will take t

6、his a few problems initiates.First, in the past five years, Chinas trade imbalances and exchange rate system is getting worse and worse, no sign of improvement. In 2006, Chinas current-account surplus soared (soar) to 9% of GDP, at present the RMB against Chinas trade partners of the mean value at l

7、east 30% undervalued currency; Against the dollar, is at least 40% undervalued. From June 2005 to now, up 6.5% against the dollar, but relatively revaluation of the RMB against the dollar was not enough to suspend (halt) Chinas competitive power in the international market of cumulative rises, also

8、did not reduce Chinas trade surplus.Second, the existing international organization for its members though exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but are not enforced. First look at the Chinese government, although China in the past four years have been engaged in a lot of, single direction of

9、the foreign exchange market intervention, the Chinese authorities are still denied currency manipulation. Second look at the Treasury, although a lot of evidence showing China handle the truth in the foreign exchange market, but the Treasury still refused to China defined as currency manipulator. Fi

10、nally see the international monetary fund, although the IMF is one of the original intention was established to promote the development of all countries exchange rate policy, but now it looks, the IMFs senior officials have also would not for a dedicated to the IMF construction supervision and restr

11、aint world international coordinating mechanism of exchange rate policy.The third, and the slowness of the progress of Chinas exchange rate policy reform, no matter to China, the United States, or any other country is unfavorable.In Chinas case, the RMB is undervalued currency manipulation and serio

12、us fact behavior of China to the foreign trade from the balance and consumption Spill-over economic growth target, also on the Chinas monetary policy independence, also interfere with the reform of the Chinese banking system, and improve the international society to China in international currency a

13、nd trade system inside become a responsible stakeholder in doubt. For America, the RMB is the modest rise not promote Asia the positive development of exchange rate system and the role of the U.S. trade deficit and no so and be able to improve and will not reduce the dollar crisis happened U.S. econ

14、omy and the risk of a hard landing. If this situation continues, emerging market countries may follow China in succession, that will give the global currency system brings the serious influence, and even can be caused by the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries of the backlash.Fourth , the Chines

15、e exchange rate policy , the current prevalence of a misunderstanding, that the RMB is substantially rapid appreciation is not feasible , is not suitable . This understanding is incorrect. Large appreciation of the RMB will not give the economic development, employment and social stability in China

16、have devastating effects. Take bolder action on RMB exchange rate in Chinas banking system is not broken, also there is no need to put in further reforms of the financial system. If the United States Treasury to China a currency manipulator, which will be conducive to Chinas exchange rate system ref

17、orm.Fifth, China should immediately from the current level , the RMB exchange rate appreciated by 10-15percent. In view of the exchange rate of the RMB long underestimated, it the adverse effect is difficult to through the modest rise again to eliminate. Only the RMB exchange rate rise sharply to co

18、mpletely disposable, solve the problem. A small revaluation of the RMB against the dollar (such as rising 5% a year), to America, scant effect, because the united himself in the cut trade deficit will be difficult. In order to improve the social stability, China in promoting more bold exchange rate

19、reform (Bolder exchange rate action) at the same time, should be increased government spending, adjust expenditure direction, so as to promote the construction of social security network, reduce the precautionary saving not high. The Treasury should explain to the Chinese government, and from now on

20、 the Treasury will have been to investigate Chinas current account balance, the change of actual and effective exchange rate changes every month and the Chinese government intervening in the foreign exchange market situation, assess external adjustment and reform of Chinas exchange rate effect. The

21、Treasury should the urgent requirement of Chinas exchange rate issues in May 2007 as a china-us strategic economic dialogue on the agenda to pressure the government to China, until achieved effect so far. If the exchange rate of the RMB was not yet increase, in the Treasury report to congress in the

22、 material, it should be defined as China currency manipulator. Finally, the international monetary fund was established to promote global exchange rate is one of the development of the system, but the IMF the problem is it not only to the exchange rate system change provide guidelines, more should u

23、rges countries to exchange rate system to reform, this is all countries promote exchange rate system favorable development of effective way.II. four indicatorsLooking back on the past five years Beijing and Washington issued announcement, you might think that China is moving toward reduce external e

24、conomic imbalance, adjust the exchange rate policy direction. Here I use four index rethinking about the question, will get a different conclusion. The first indicator: Chinas current-account surplus：In the past five years , China s current account surplus has been growing , and 1% of GDP in 2001 ,

25、nearly 9 percent of GDP in 2006 . Calculated in U.S. dollars , China is the largest country in the world on a trade surplus ; the current account balance accounted for the proportion of economies of scale to measure Chinas trade surplus is more serious than the U.S. trade deficit . Compared with the

26、 same period in 2006, the first two months of 2007 , Chinas current account balance increased by 225% . Visible, the external equilibrium of the Chinese economy is even worse. The second indicator: Chinas actual effective exchange rate：Compared with the nominal exchange rate, actual and effective ex

27、change rate is measured economic competitiveness of Chinas more appropriate index. In the past five, six years, against the dollars actual and effective exchange rate increased 2%. Some people think that the RMB against the US dollar was 6.5%, from RMB 1 dollar to 8.28 to 1 dollar to 7.73 RMB (March

28、 22, 2007), the effect is remarkable. In fact, the RMB is still undervalued, RMB against the Chinese trade partner of the mean value at least 30% undervalued currency; against the dollar, is at least 40% undervalued. And relative appreciation against the dollar does not help to reduce trade surplus.

29、 The third indicator: the RMB exchange rate of the market economy：In June 2005, the Chinese government announced on the RMB exchange rate system to reform, realize the exchange rate of the market economy. But in fact the RMB exchange rate and not out of the market economy. In order to maintain the c

30、urrency relative stability, the Chinese government has been manipulating foreign exchange market, every month amount of intervention last year to $20 billion. This and announced that the RMB exchange rate reform of before the first half year of 2005 level is consistent. In the past three years, Chin

31、as foreign exchange market intervention level of 10% of GDP. More seriously, a lot of intervention in the foreign exchange market at the same time, the central bank had a lot of Write-off operation, this kind of behavior circulation at the same time (the domestic money supply increased, inflation ra

32、te growth), foreign exchange reserves will continue to rise, otherwise, even if the RMB nominal exchange rate unchanged, the competitiveness of China can seriously reduce. In fact, the RMB exchange rate is still controlled prospective fixed rate. The fourth indicator: As a member of the IMF, to fulf

33、ill the commitment of the exchange rate policy：As one of the IMF member countries, China should fulfill its commitment to reform its exchange rate policy. A member of the IMF have promised not to currency manipulation, the Chinese government also insisted that no manipulation of the foreign exchange

34、 market. One of the primary means of manipulating the exchange rate of Chinas monetary authorities, continued to intervene in the foreign exchange marketIII. the significance. At some point: the economy of China external disequilibrium state and RMB underestimated conditions improve, whether have im

35、proved speed and what is not important, but I dont think so.The significance of China: Obviously, Chinas exchange rate policy on China, is very important. Chinese authorities say they are willing to from investment and export-led growth strategy to consumption and domestic demand investment-driven g

36、rowth change, also would like to turn to more independent monetary policy, and consolidate their banking systems. As Chinas economy in the world economy in the proportion of growth, China hopes to become a responsible stakeholder. But, the RMB is undervalued and serious interest rate behavior led to

37、 the manipulation of the Chinese is difficult to achieve the goal. If not greatly raise interest rates, it is difficult to keep the existing Chinese investment levels, reduce the uncertainty of growth, because only then can attract a lot of speculative capital inflows, but also to the exchange rate

38、reform brings great pressure. When the RMB is serious underestimate, export and trade surplus production capacity will be difficult to lower down, which show that the situation development is more and more disadvantage. Chinas commercial Banks are right now is: hand holding the central bank to write

39、-off the operation, low yield of; Reserve rate are improving; RMB underestimated the headline foreign exchange reserve climbed, even if a large amount of write-off, part of foreign exchange reserves transformed into the fast growth the commercial bank loan; Many commercial bank loan object and the l

40、oan amount is designated by the central bank. Therefore, the reform of Chinas commercial banks is difficult. In addition, Chinas exports to the industrialized countries and attract foreign investment is difficult to maintain stability.IV. Countermeasures As mentioned above, not too much criticism of

41、 the Chinese exchange rate policy, then if the recent exchange rate system reform in China is not ideal , in order to avoid adverse impact on Chinas exchange rate policy to the parties in the next few years , China can take What measures ? Chinas urgent is the RMB appreciation from the current level

42、 of 10-15 percent. One way is to directly to RMB valuation, another method is to stop intervening in the foreign exchange market, let the RMB to rise. If China in 2003 and 2004 and the realization of the trade surplus reduced gradually, the RMB devalues gradually words, the situation will be better.

43、 Now the situation is: RMB underestimated badly, must carry on stage to RMB exchange rate adjustment. Should make clear of the RMB against the dollar is relatively slow appreciation can not solve the problem. The real effective exchange rate $assumptions in the next three years worth 15%-20%, even i

44、f the RMB against the dollar to rise by 5% a year, and its real effective exchange rate also wont have a big revaluation, that is, the real effective exchange rate by the influence of the dollar. Therefore, cant isolated see the name of the RMB against the dollar exchange rate is in appreciation. Mo

45、re seriously, when the slow appreciation in orbit, the market could expect the RMB has an unexpected rise sharply, this will cause of speculative capital inflows into China. To sum up, Nick Lardy and Ive always thought the RMB to rise sharply, one-time is the right move, is RMB monetary system refor

46、m of the two-step first step. In bold the exchange rate adjustment at the same time, the Chinese government should adjust the direction of expansion of government spending, expenses, including medical, education and perfect pension system, social security system, decreased due to imperfect social se

47、curity caused by the high savings rate. In addition, China should abandon the RMB exchange rate is a national sovereignty ideas, strict compliance with IMF members on the exchange rate policy of the treaty.The United States National Economic Council, March 28, 2007Peterson institute for internationa

48、l economics, Morris Goldstein对中国汇率政策的评估摘 要：本文从四个方面阐述了人民币汇率政策，即在过去的五年中，中国的贸易不平衡和汇率体系在不断恶化，没有好转的迹象；现有的国际组织虽然对其成员国的汇率政策有明确的规定，但都没有强制执行；目前的中国汇率政策无论对中国、美国，还是其他国家都是不利的；对于中国汇率政策，目前普遍存在着一个误区，即人民币大幅度、快速升值不可行、不适合；中国应该立即将人民币汇率从目前的水平上升值10%15%。一、 介绍和预览感谢主席先生给我这个机会来陈述我对中国汇率政策的一些看法。首先，在过去的五年中，中国在推进汇率政策改革方面进展缓慢；其次，

49、我想陈述为什么说中国汇率改革进展缓慢会对中国经济、美国经济、国际货币体系、以及全球贸易体系产生重要影响；再次，我主要阐述有关中国汇率改革进展缓慢的借口和托辞并不能令人信服的原因；第四，关于中国汇率政策的几个误区。最后，我对中国在未来的一至两年内，在推进汇率改革方面能够和应该采取哪些行动，我将就这几个问题逐一论述。第一、在过去的五年中，中国的贸易不平衡和汇率体系在不断恶化，没有好转的迹象。2006年，中国的经常账户余额飙升（soar）到GDP的9%，目前人民币兑中国贸易伙伴国货币的均值至少低估30%；人民币兑美元，则至少低估了40%。从2005年6月至今，人民币兑美元上升了6.5%，但是人民币对美元的相对升值还不足以中止（halt）中国在国际市场上的竞争力的累积性上升，也没有降低中国的贸易顺差。第二，现有的国际组织虽然对其成员国的汇率政策有明确的规定，但都没有强制执行。首先看