TCL集团(000100)百尺竿头更进一步130228.ppt

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1、12,-0,121,-0,122,-0,123,-0,124,-0,125,-0,126,-0,127,-0,128,-0,129,-1,120,-1,121,-1,132,-0,131,-0,2,4.,/,-,TCL,000100,2012,2013,2,28,8.0,TCL,2012-21%,696EPS 0.094,+14%,1.8,3.9,021-,2012,S1010510120019,323,+18.5%,6.5,2012,TCL,1553,2013,021-68761842,1800,+16%,2013,S1010512080009,2012,97.7,+11%,1.7,2011

2、,6.6,300,TCL,1.8,TCLAMOLED,50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%,38.6,3.9,-20%,12%,32,95,2013,4%5%,201355,1.,TCL,000100 2012.2012-10-29,2.,TCL,000100,TCL,2012,.2012-10-18,2013,3,TCL,000100,2012,TCL,2013-14,EPS,.2012-8-10,0.17/0.19,0.15/0.17,TCL,000100 2012,2010,2011,2012,2013E,2014E,.2012-4-27,YoY%YoY%,51,87017.143

3、3-8.0,60,83417.31013134.2,69,62914.5796-21.4,84,34521.131,47284.92,95,48513.211,64011.41,5.6.,TCL,000100,2012-4-16,EPSPEPBEV/EBITDA,ROE%,0.054.2482.020.9,0.129.4201.825.5,0.096.8271.818.5,0.1712141.615.0,0.1912.1131.514.7,.2012-3-21,2013,2,27,TCL,000100,2012,2012,38.6,3.9,2013,12%EBITDA,26%,2013,1,1

4、830,150,23,2012,40%55,50%,42012,a)b),13,30%+c),1,EBITDA,2013,29%46 48 55,d),1,TCL,TCL,2011A3.96.62.8*2.0*0.30.7*-0.20.6*16.7,2012A6.5-1.72.30.50.61.03.2-0.5*12.7*,2013E7.8*-1.0*2.8*0.7*0.4*1.8*10.5*-0.2*22.9*,2014E9.2*0.8*2.9*0.8*0.6*2.8*8.2*-0.2*25.2*,201153.1%48.2%80.0%66.5%55.0%100.0%55.0%,201261

5、.8%49.7%80.0%66.5%55.0%100.0%55.0%,2011A2.13.22.3*1.3*0.20.7*-0.10.6*10.1,2012A4.0-0.81.80.40.31.01.8-0.5*8.0*,2013E4.8*-0.5*2.3*0.5*0.2*1.8*5.8*-0.2*14.7*,2014E5.7*0.4*2.4*0.5*0.4*2.8*4.5*-0.2*16.4*,%,-26%*,84%*,10%*,-21%*,85%*,12%*,-16.7,-10.3*,6.0*28.9*,6.0*31.1*,55.0%,55.0%,-10.1,-8.0*,3.3*18.0*

6、,3.3*19.7*,%,-26%*,132%*,8%*,-21%*,126%*,9%*,*1,TCL,000100,2012,201051,87044,53514.14%1215,1019.83%2,1614.17%330.06%225-156-0.30%1,14521577430038.81%414330.83%0.05,201160,83451,11915.97%4545,4578.97%2,8004.60%-63-0.10%3161,2232.01%9371152,04537218.17%6601,0131.67%0.12,201269,62958,10816.55%4096,5839

7、.45%3,8395.51%3510.50%2942570.37%1,443461,65436727.02%4777961.14%0.09,2013E84,34570,63916.25%6337,5078.90%3,9644.70%3290.39%2001,4461.71%1,300502,69640415.00%8201,4721.75%0.17,2014E95,48580,04816.17%7168,4038.80%4,4884.70%3020.32%2001,7111.79%1,300502,96144415.00%8771,6401.72%0.19,201025,9467,6895,5

8、425,34944,5262,8811,2378943,9418,95253,47813,4586,65310,40630,5171,9292,9394,86935,3864,2385,69410,274,201121,3688,4726,60311,78048,22310,5591,4161,36112,45525,79174,01412,1979,24116,66838,10611,4025,22316,62554,7318,4761,48211,306,201217,79811,9567,85413,57151,17921,3361,9531,7993,47828,56679,74510

9、,15512,69422,39745,2468,2586,00814,26659,5128,4761,55220,233,2013E16,86911,3998,61115,25052,12924,1861,4161,3612,70529,66781,7969,41313,42120,09642,93111,4025,26516,66859,5988,4761,48212,911,2014E19,09712,7599,51016,99658,36323,7201,4161,3612,70529,20287,56410,26415,20921,65147,12411,4024,76516,1686

10、3,2918,4761,48214,110,7,81853,478,7,97874,014,8,48779,745,9,28681,796,10,16387,564,2010,2011,2012,2013E,2014E,433,1,013,796,1,472,1,640,2010,2011,2012,2013E,2014E,41,660,477,820,877,675-167-186,795-429-373,2,264-515893,2,012-248156,2,027-631120,17.1-126.5-8.0,17.3-882.5134.2,14.5-78.9-21.4,21.13495.

11、0684.92,13.2118.3311.41,796,1,666,3,916,4,212,4,033,%,-3,03946219-1,099,-15,841541,824-2,651,-5,497922,578-3,685,-1,5622000-30,-1,5622000-50,%EBITMargin%EBITDAMargin%,14.1-0.11.20.8,16.01.73.01.7,16.51.04.21.1,16.31.94.31.8,16.21.941.7,-3,872,-16,615,-6,512,-1,392,-1,412,%,4,4114,878,09,535,01,403,0

12、-2,591,0350,%,4.20.9,9.41.8,6.81.0,122.1,12.12.2,0,0,0,-239,-441,%,4,08213,37110,295,-7828,752-6,196,-1,252151-2,481,-329-3,159-339,-302-3932,228,%,66.214.30.0,73.913.90.0,74.627.040,72.92525,72.32525,2,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or pa

13、rt of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,relat

14、ed to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produc

15、ed in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,