农产品行业价格双周报：供需报告和天气利空,令国际粮价承压130218.ppt

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1、130105,130107,130109,130111,130113,130115,130117,130119,130121,130123,130125,130127,130129,130131,130202,130204,130206,130208,200901,200904,200907,200910,201001,201004,201007,201010,201101,201104,201107,201110,201201,201204,201207,201210,201301,0.62%CBOT 0.02%CBOT,wwwww1,220,2013 215,210,832.33,832.

2、33,883.54,882.47,852.30,854.38,170,69.92,69.92,55.10,55.25,59.46,60.12,150,190,127.48 127.92 131.79,2013,5 6 7,2013,2,18,2013,2,17,215.66,2000,100,2.73%3.21%,8.82%9.52%,218.35,010-60838274,1.79%,3.92%,1,S1010510120044,0.29%,0.70%,2.47%1.77%CC Index 3281.01%0.04%,0.06%0.02%-0.21%0.25%0.13%3.34%0.04%-

3、5.24%-3.53%-5.13%,010-S1010512080007,-3.49%,NYBOT,1.75%NYBOT 1.22%CBOT中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,1.19%CBOT2.77%1.60%2.88%,3.86%CBOT1.52%COTLOOK A0.25%2.33%,2 2012/210205200,2012/13,2010/11,2011/12,2012/13,08,13,1,13,2,13,1,13,2,13,1,13,2,230,263.59 263.59 238.73 238.73 269.41 269.50中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商6

4、52.24 652.02 696.44 696.64 654.31 131.01 115.99 118.04130197.77 197.94 195.78 196.54 176.64 176.73,251.96849.96654.74,251.96850.31655.11,256.20879.24698.44,256.18879.39698.03,262.67868.11673.45,262.32867.34673.43,2013,2,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14.7,16,17,18,19,13 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,.1.1.1.1.2.2.3.5.7.8.8.1

5、0,.12.13,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商wwwww2,1,4,2000,=100.1,2000,=100.1,.2.2.3.3.4.4.5.5.612.6中国价值投资网 15.7.7.9.9.9,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,1,.9.10.10.11.11.12.12.12.12.14,.14.14.14,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,.15,wwwww3,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,130105,130107,130109,130111,130113,130115,130117,130119,

6、130121,130123,130125,130127,130129,130131,130202,130204,130206,130208,200901,200904,200907,200910,201001,201004,201007,201010,201101,201104,201107,201110,201201,201204,201207,201210,201301,170,150,130,200,205,2.47%,0.06%,1,0.02%,1.52%COTLOOK A,1.60%,2.33%,20132.73%,2,17,8.82%,215.66,2000218.35,100,3

7、.21%,9.52%,1,4,2,2000220215,=100,2000230210,=100,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商wwwww4,1.79%0.29%0.70%-0.21%1.77%CC Index 328 0.13%,3.92%0.25%,1.01%-5.24%,3.34%0.04%-3.53%-5.13%-3.49%,0.04%,NYBOT,1.75%NYBOT,1.22%CBOT,0.62%,CBOT,0.02%,CBOT,1.19%,CBOT,3.86%CBOT,2.77%,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,0.25%2,2012/13,2.88%,1

8、,110406,110606,110806,111006,111206,120206,120406,120606,120806,201110,201204,201012,201102,201104,201106,201108,201112,201202,201206,201208,201210,201212,121006,121206,130206,2013,4600,42000 4500,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商-5.24%-3.53%,-5.13%,-3.49%,wwwww5,15.5,/,3,(,4,/,4800047000460004500044000,5200510

9、05000490048004700,3025201510,43000 5中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,1 2,15,27,10,172,120410,120510,120210,120311,120609,120709,120808,120907,121007,121106,121206,130105,100621,100820,101019,101218,110216,110417,110616,110815,111014,111213,120211,120411,120610,120809,121008,121207,130205,130204,CBOT,2.77%,2.33

10、%0.06%,/6,75%,90%,2 2,7,2013,5,23,3,1,31H1N1,4 1,30,2012,2011,5.6%,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商0.04%wwwww6,5,/,2800260024002200200018001600140012001000,:,:,2600250024002300220021002000,:,:,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商3,200601,200605,200609,200701,200705,200709,200801,200805,200809,200901,200905,200909,201001,2010

11、05,201009,201101,201105,201109,201201,201205,201209,201301,110314,110414,110514,110614,110714,110814,110914,111014,111114,111214,120114,120214,120314,120414,120514,120614,120714,120814,120914,121014,121114,121214,130114,130214,),wwwww7,57.5%,2 13,2,310,76.6%,89.2%,6,7,2 maize,yellow(,/,8900,CBOT,/,3

12、50300250200150100500,USDA,50,800700600500400300,Bloomberg,2013,2%中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,1,2013/14,107.8,9600,972020.7,6.32,144.4,2,2,7,22.54,3,5.93 28.47,7,68%,Nonghyup,195,000,70,000,4 2,9,USDA,8,319.50,USDA,USDA,7250,9,USDA2700,5,2,8,1,540,5,013,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,340370,2,7,2012/13,7,1,2,75.3%,

13、Conab,7279,7600,-4090,5,4,100622,100821,101020,101219,110217,110418,110617,110816,111015,111214,120212,120412,120611,120810,121009,121208,130206,120213,120228,120314,120329,120413,120428,120513,120528,120612,120627,120712,120727,120811,120826,120910,120925,121010,121025,121109,121124,121209,121224,1

14、30108,130123,130207,1,1.1%,25,wwwww8,5000,4800,5000,4800,4600,4400,4200,4600,8795,140,2013,2,3,9,2,5,9,700,7,700,(CongressionalBudgetOffice),10,1,25,11,4895.5,649.1,2,0.25%,CBOT,0.29%,0.02%,3.34%2中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,9,/,10,/,:,:,:,:,400038003600340032003000,4400420040003800,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商5,

15、200609,200701,200705,200709,200801,200805,200809,200901,200905,200909,201001,201005,201009,201101,201105,201109,201201,201205,201209,201301,120214,120314,120414,120514,120614,120714,120814,120914,121014,121114,121214,130114,130214,),25 2012/13,wwwww9,USDA,8350,5300,USDA 2012/13 1%,10.7%2012 196,285,

16、7 1 25,11,1(,/,122000,CBOT,/,700600500400300200100,USDA,18001600140012001000800,Bloomberg,1 2 15(USDA)中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,18.8%,2,2,14,(USDA),2,7,2012-13,109,200,2013-14,344,900,3 2,9,USDA,1.1%,6010,1.25,100,100,4,5000,2,725%,2012/13,5,2,8,3.8%,12,18.8%,1,478,6,2012,2012,3330,2011,3730,中国价值投资网 最多、

17、最好用研究报告服务商,6,263.9,111.3,6,200605,200609,200701,200705,200709,200801,200805,200809,200901,200905,200909,201001,201005,201009,201101,201105,201109,201201,201205,201209,201301,100621,100820,101019,101218,110216,110417,110616,110815,111014,111213,120211,120411,120610,120809,121008,121207,130205,120213,

18、120314,120413,120513,120612,120712,120811,120910,121010,121109,121209,130108,130207,111130,111222,120118,120209,120305,120327,120419,120511,120605,120627,120720,120813,120905,120927,121019,121112,121205,121228,130123,130214,2000,750,650,200,500,400,300,550,2.88%0.04%,CBOT,2.47%,3.86%,13,/,14,/,26002

19、4002200200018001600,:,:,25002400230022002100,:,:,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,15,/,16,/,wwwww10,2(,FOB),CBOT,600,2(,FOB),1050950,1000,USDA,2013/14,450,Bloomberg,5750,2012,5570,7.33,6.91中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,500,7,2,7,6,2,7,408,725,8,2,6,170,2012/13 430,CBOT,1,2,14,(USDA),2,7,2012-13,651,700,2013-14,76%,54,

20、600,83%,2,2013/14,22.7,5750,2012,55707.33,21.96.91,2012/13,3,2,11,ArkadyDvorkovich,3,5%,7,1,4,2,11,(IKAR),2012/13,7,2012,7,2013,1,650,000,2008/09,5 2 中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,835,2012/13,40%,1168,wwwww11,7,FAO,2012/13,3%,1.59,2012/13,70,600,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,1.19%,0.02%,-0.21%,0.25%,2013,2013,8,200

21、609,200701,200705,200709,200801,200805,200809,200901,200905,200909,201001,201005,201009,201101,201105,201109,201201,201205,201209,201301,090226,090427,090626,090825,091024,091223,100221,100422,100621,100820,101019,101218,110216,110417,110616,110815,111014,111213,120211,120411,120610,120809,121008,12

22、1207,130205,120813,120827,120910,120210,120924,120326,120510,121022,121105,121119,121203,121217,121231,130114,130128,130211,121008,120624,120808,120922,121106,121221,130204,19,17,15,1200,wwwww12,2 7 2012-13 93,200 2013-14,1,1,50,132,135,150,2012,12,10,1734002900240019001400,10,/,2013,183400320030002

23、8002600240022002000,/Wind,/,20,/,CBOT(100%B,FOB)中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商161000800 14,6004002000,13121110,USDA Bloomberg20131 2 14(USDA)中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,2 2 8,444,178,12,14.2%,74%,3,220,614,8,85.4%,201331.7%,1,38,22055,929,9,200701,200707,200801,200807,200901,200907,201001,201007,201101,201107,2012

24、01,201207,201301,week5,week8,week11,week14,week17,week20,week23,week26,week29,week32,week35,week38,week42,week45,week48,week51,week3,week6,wwwww13,920,1030,Bloomberg,4 25 2,88,15,20,5,10,66%,591,675,6,204.2,19%,147.6,7,2,5,150,11,2012/13,8,1,25,17,4125.8,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商NYBOT,1.79%,1.75%,USDA,1

25、.77%,922,1.52%,kingsman,2012/13,218000700060005000400030002000,226800660064006200600058005600540052005000,1#,/,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,Bloomberg,10,200704,200707,200710,200801,200804,200807,200810,200901,200904,200907,200910,201001,201004,201007,201010,201101,201104,201107,201110,201201,201204,201207,

26、201210,201301,120827,120906,120916,120926,121006,121016,121026,121105,121115,121125,121205,121215,121225,130104,130114,130124,130203,130213,1 2 USDA 2012/13,3,2,1,kingsman,2012/13,920 1030,6 2013 1 103 3585.3,822.3,428.8,53.9%,23,/,50KG,24,/,NYBOT,11#,50403020100,Bloomberg,2221201918171615,Bloomberg

27、,1,53.9%,14.4,中国价值投资网 8 最多、最好用研究报告服务商2012/13,19.3%,18.7%,wwwww14,2,2,8,2012,2012520,300,kingsman,120,Kingsman,13,820,4,2012/13,2013,1,31,199.16,71.1110.95%,0.05%,167.63,21.81,7.72,5,121.05,1.53,468.98,52.3840.18%,8.18,5.69,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,14.4,103.8,231.3,103.3,11,200601,200607,200701,200707,2

28、00801,200807,200901,200907,201001,201007,201101,201107,201201,201207,201301,200612,200704,200708,200712,200804,200808,200812,200904,200908,200912,201004,201008,201012,201104,201109,201201,201205,201209,201301,120801,120819,120906,120924,121012,121030,121117,121205,121223,130110,130128,130215,week5,w

29、eek8,week11,week14,week17,week20,week23,week26,week29,week32,week35,week38,week42,week45,week48,week51,week3,week6,Bloomberg,wwwww15,70,65,140,90,40,60,NYBOT,1.22%,COTLOOK A,1.60%,3.92%,CC Index 328,0.13%,25,/,26,/,34000,CC Index 328,CC Index 527,CC Index 229,21000,CCIndex(328),29000,180001500012000

30、,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,27240190,COTLOOK A,/,28908580,NYBOT,2,/,55,USDA,150,2,Bloomberg,200,2012,27%,20,4.5%,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,615,12,2,7,中国价值投资网86%,18,2012,699.2,11,0.70%,CBOT 0.62%,1,2,142012-13,(USDA)185,700,2013-14,171,500,2,2,9,902,(NationalCottonCouncil)2012,27%,20,3,2,8,450,1,(USDA),480,2,

31、2012/13,2012/13,34001250,1,33502012/13,2012/13,4261,14001,1,4061,4,1,31,2013,4.5%,5 1 30 2012 6001260 2012最多、最好用研究报告服务商1.01%21,1,67,25,USDA,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商13,200701,200705,200709,200801,200805,200809,200901,200905,200909,201001,201005,201009,201101,201105,201109,201201,201205,201209,201301,wee

32、k5,week8,week11,week14,week17,week20,week23,week26,week29,week32,week35,week38,week42,week45,week48,week51,week3,week6,200805,200903,200609,200702,200707,200712,200810,200908,201001,201006,201011,201104,201109,201202,201207,201212,120213,120313,120413,120513,120613,120713,120813,120913,121013,121113

33、,121213,130113,130213,1450,55,50,45,40,950,700 35,3,2,(USDA),2,7,2012-13,16,600,2013-14,0,29180001500012000900060003000,/Bloomberg,4,30105009500850075006500,/Bloomberg,4,31,Rape oil(Dutch,fob ex-mill)Soya oil(Dutch,fob ex-mill),/,3260,CBOT,/,Palm oil(Crude,cif North West Europe)1200中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报

34、告服务商,450,30,200wwwww17,USDA,Bloomberg,1,2,15,(COPA),2,13,37,455,38,223,2.0%2012/13,861,175,738,909,21.58195,2,1512,1.59899,(NOPA),1,1.42813,中国价值投资网 14最多、最好用研究报告服务商,4,231.2%,8196,12,5,2,8,(USDA),2,2012/13,189.75,1,187,14,6.99,0.07,0.06,11.16,0.17,0.835,0.01,0.45,0.62,66,13,1116,25,18,13.57 0.3 0.55 0

35、.7 0.91 45 31 25 19 15,wwwww18,6,2,8,1,67,8.6%7,2012,1,EPS RMB,1190,PE,1110,8%,2010,2011 2012E,2013E,2014E,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,000998002385002311300175000876600298601118002041002477,21.8823.8917.564.3514.8018.426.3424.2918.56,0.180.390.280.1050.330.860.150.590.23,0.320.630.450.1251.520.910.1

36、90.660.805,0.650.860.610.81.10.80.080.760.6,1.031.190.790.151.410.171.050.85,1.301.551.050.201.841.250.241.261.10,1226163414521424181,683839351020333723,34282951323793231,212022291118372322,17151722815261917,2820620728,002299600108002157,11.66 0.31 7.92 0.13 0.28,0.10.20.24,0.360.290.53,0.980.320.66

37、,3810061,2311728,1173533,322415,122212,9.54,002458002567,中国价值投资网0.44最多、最好用研究报告服务商,14,002100600978600467002447600438,9.765.187.9324.426.44,0.360.210.20.2250.23,0.260.220.280.3750.12,0.340.290.320.640.19,0.450.340.430.750.26,0.480.360.550.900.38,27254010928,3824286554,2918253834,2215183325,2014142717,

38、11.58.75-,2013,2,8,中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商15,2013,300,300,10%,-,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views

39、 of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch 中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商/()(1)(2)/,1,/300,20%,wwwww19,2,6300,6,300300300300,5%-10%10%10%,20%5%,6 300-10%10%中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,2

40、6,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule,15a-letters thereunder.,e 15a-6 and the SEC no-actionZ20374000,1934,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,