Gold SurveyPresentation 全球黄金市场调研.ppt

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1、Gold Survey 2010,Philip Klapwijk,Executive Chairman,GFMS Ltd.,London,14th April 2010,GFMS gratefully acknowledge the generoussupport from the following companies for thisyears Gold Survey and its two Updates,World Gold Councilwww.IBKC Gold Corporation,Commerzbank GlobalPrecious MetalsDubai Multi Com

2、moditiesCentreScotiaMocattaJohnson M,Valcambi saJPMorgan Chase BINTL Commodities,INC.,Tanaka Precious Metals GroupBarrick Gold C,Large and experienced team of 25 Analysts+Consultants.Not just desk-based:Over 300 companies and organisations in36 countries visited by our personnel in the last 12 month

3、s.Annual Gold,Silver,Platinum&Palladium and Copper Surveys.Also,weekly,monthly,quarterly&bi-annual reports plusforecasts and a wide range of consultancy services across allthe precious and base metals&steel.,The GFMS Groups Unique Research,Capabilities&Programme,Presentation Outline,Gold PricesSuppl

4、yDemandOutlook,US Dollar Gold PriceWeekly Averages,DOLLARAverageIntra-YearYear-on-Year,2008871.962.7%25.4%,2009972.3524.4%11.5%,Q1 20101,109.12-0.5%22.1%,US$/oz26-week moving averageSource:GFMS;Thomson Reuters,Euro Gold PriceWeekly Averages,Euro/oz,EUROAverageIntra-YearYear-on-Year,2008593.096.9%17.

5、0%,2009696.9421.5%17.5%,Q1 2010802.516.1%15.0%,26-week moving averageSource:GFMS;Thomson Reuters,Euro/kg,US$/oz,Rupee 10g/g,Gold Prices in Different Currencies,Indexed Daily Series,Source:GFMS;Thomson Reuters,Real and Nominal Gold Prices(real US$price in constant 2009 terms),New record nominalannual

6、 average reached in2009,but in real termstodays prices are still wellshort of historical peaks.,1980 average:$1,600Real PriceNominal PriceSource:GFMS,Thomson Reuters,Supply,Gold Supply in 2009,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),GFMS Mine Supply Database,Over 100 companies analysed on a quarterly basis pr

7、oduction/costs/corporate activityOver 300 mines recorded on an annual basis production/costs/reserves/gradeOver 320 projects projected production profile,start-update,capex,reserves,resourcesInformal mine production measured on a country-by-country basisCosts measured at 70%of Western World gold pro

8、ductionBottom-up cost analysis methodology to assess$/tonnemining,ore processing and on-site administration costs,plus benchmarking of fuel,power,labour productivity andother key inputsGlobal analysis and forecasting of mine supply,breakdownof industry cost structures and trends,benchmarking,Gold Mi

9、ne Production,2009 up 163tor 6.8%yoy,Latin AmericaNorth AmericaSouth AfricaSource:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),OtherChinaAustralia,ArgentinaGhana,Mine Production:Winners and Losers(Figures represent year-on-year change,i.e.2009 less 2008)IndonesiaChina,South United,Africa StatesSource:GFMS,Russia,Mongolia

10、,Latin,America,North,America,South Africa,Other,Major Western World Mines Cash Costs,(in money-of-the-day terms),Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Australia,Year-on-Year Changes to Cash Costs,464Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),478,+10,+12,+6,+5,+5,+3,-4,-12,+21-33,2009 vs 2008,Mine Production,163 tonne in

11、crease equal to 6.8%y-o-y in 2009;the firstannual increase for three years.,Strong increases from a suite of new projects and operatingmines.Strong country gains in Indonesia,China,Russia,Argentina,Brazil and Mexico.,All regions posted growth,except for North America.Twolargest falls at the mine lev

12、el were seen in the UnitedStates.,US dollar denominated total cash costs increased by anaverage 3%,or$14/oz,to$478/oz in 2009.,GFMS proprietary All-In Costs measure increased by 3.9%to$717/oz.,Above-Ground Stocks of Gold,end-2009,Above-ground Stocks,end 2009=166,000t,Gold is not“consumed”like most c

13、ommodities;stocks can beavailable at the right price,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Supply from Scrap,Hedging&Official Sales,Flat trend since 2000?,Net Official Sector SalesHedging SupplyScrapSecular increase in supply 1987-99Source:GFMS,Change in Supply from Above-Ground Stocks,2009 compared to 2008

14、,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Regional Changes in Scrap Supply,2009 compared to 2008,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Jewellery Fabrication&Scrap Supply,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Jewellery Fabrication,Scrap Supply,Above-Ground Jewellery Stocks by Region,end-2009,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),CBGA

15、and Other Gold Sales,OtherCBGA,“CBGA”refers to signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement“Other”refers to all other countries,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Demand,Gold Demand in 2009,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),World Gold FabricationDeveloping Countries,Industrialised Countries,2009 down 472t,

16、or 16%yoySource:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),IndianS-C,Europe,EastAsia,Other,Jewellery Fabrication:Winners and Losers(Figures represent year-on-year change,i.e.2009 less 2008)Latin,AmericaNorthAmerica,MiddleEastSource:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Fabrication Demand in 2009A sharp decline in jewellery demand was

17、 the principal driverof the 16%or 472t fall in fabrication demand to 2,417 t.Full year jewellery fabrication dropped by 20%or 434tonnes,with higher gold prices and the economic downturnthe primary reasons for the fall.Other fabrication fell by just 5.4%y-o-y to 658 tonnes in2009.However,with all coi

18、ns excluded,the drop reaches15%.,Electronics demand dropped by16%,largely due to theeconomic crisis,particularly in the first half.,GFMS Hedging Analysis,GFMS enter all hedging transactions into our hedgingdatabase and the Brady Trinity system.Trades are input on a quarterly basis by company,instrum

19、ent,year of expiry and currency.Using detailed market data,accurate deltas and othersensitivities are calculated.Comprehensive global hedge book analysis is publishedonce per quarter by GFMS,in association with SocitGnrale.,Net Market Impact of Producer Hedging,Supply,Demand,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey

20、2010),*outstanding forward sales,loans and net delta hedge against positions,Outstanding hedge book just236 tonnes at end-2009,Total Accelerated Supply from Producer Hedging*,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Investment in 2009,World Investment(which includes the implied figure,barhoarding and all coins

21、)nearly doubled in 2009 to over 1,900tonnes and reached an approximate value of$60 billion.The first few months of 2009 saw a record level of investment,demand.Fears about financial stability and economicdepression triggered a wave of safe haven buying,particularly inthe forms of gold ETFs and physi

22、cal bullion products.After a summer lull,investor activity,especially in the OTC andfutures markets,picked up strongly from September onwards,primarily driven by a weaker dollar,higher price expectationsand growing concerns regarding future trends in inflation.Thissurge in investment demand drove pr

23、ices above$1,200,before aloss of momentum and some profit taking brought about a pricecorrection in the final weeks of 2009.,World Investment*,Value of World,Investment,*World Investment is the sum of Implied net investment,bar hoarding and all coins&medals,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Gold Exchang

24、e Traded Funds,Source:Respective issuers,At 31/12/2009,617t risefrom 31/12/08,Non-commercial&non-reportable net positions in futures taken as proxy for investors positions.Source:CFTC,Investors positions in gold futures in 2009(non-commercial&non-reportable positions in Comex&CBOT futures),Gold Pric

25、e,200720082009,157k contracts177k contracts219k contracts,Average size of net“investor”long.2006 135k contracts,European&North American,Retail Investment,Europe,North America,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Price Outlook,Gold Supply 2008-2010F,Mine Production,Official SectorScrap,Source:GFMS,Supply in

26、 2010,Mine Production forecast to increase this year but at aslower pace,just over 2%,compared to the nearly 7%year-on-year growth seen in 2009.,Official Sales expected to recover in 2010,mainlydriven by 191 tonnes on-market sales by the IMF.Disposals from current CBGA members to be subduedwhile oth

27、er countries to be small scale net buyers.Scrap forecast to be lower year-on-year in first half buthigher in second half,with full year total little changed.Overall supply growth in 2010 to slow to perhaps,around 5%compared to 2009s rapid 8%pace.,Gold Demand 2008-2010FProducer De-HedgingOther Fabric

28、ation,*World Investment is sum of Implied Net Investment,Bar Hoarding and all Coins&MedalsSource:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Jewellery,Demand in 2010,In spite of a reasonable first quarter,for full year 2010jewellery demand will recover only modestly,due tohigher prices and constrained budgets,especially

29、 in lightof continued economic weakness in many countries.Concentrated buying expected on price dips.Other fabrication set to recover in 2010,due to growthin the electronics sector.Prospects for further de-hedging are limited by the nowvery low outstanding producer hedgebook.Investor interest in gol

30、d is expected to remain strongthroughout this year and potentially well into 2011.,Investment in 2010?Backdrop for investment in 2010 will remain positive as long as:Zero to negative real short term interest rates continue in all majorcurrencies.Concerns over sovereign debt increase and crisis sprea

31、ds fromEurope to United States.Inflation expectations grow,especially in the US with its expected$1.6 trillion FY 2010 deficit and probable debt monetization.Notwithstanding the above,risk may be growing of short-term andtemporary sell-off by investors if fears of double-dip triggerliquidations acro

32、ss all risky assets.,Longer-term,gold price vulnerability is rising due to investmentsexceptionally high share of demand and the increasing size ofinvestors near-market bullion stocks.,World Investment*&Fabrication(excluding all coins),(1980-2010F),Fabrication,World Investment,*World Investment=the

33、sum of implied investment,bar hoarding and all coins,Source:GFMS(Gold Survey 2010),Price Outlook,Investors will remain the principal driver of prices this year,with a breach,of$1,300 in the second half still a possibility,although perhaps no longer astrong probability.,In the short term,prices could

34、 retrace from current levels;the mid,$1,000s are a possible low over the next three months,with prices in thatregion most likely to be eventually pushed up again by bargain hunting andstock replenishment.,Supply expected to rise fairly strongly in 2010,with growth in mine,production,and,from a very

35、low base,official sector sales,the latter alsoexpected to be concentrated in the second half.Scrap supply has fallenyear-to-date but should recover in the latter part of 2010 basis higher priceconditions.These will also mean that there is only a moderate recovery infabrication demand for the calenda

36、r year as a whole.,Imbalances in the market suggest that at some point the gold price will,have to retreat.Nevertheless,this is most unlikely to occur on a secularbasis in 2010 and potentially not until well into 2011 given current economicconditions,which in an underlying sense still favour gold in

37、vestment.,GFMS Gold Price Forecast for 2010,Source:GFMS,Forecast Average:$1,170,Forecast Range:$1,050-$1,300,GFMS Forthcoming Events,22 April 2010:Platinum&Palladium Survey 201027 May 2010:World Silver Survey 2010September 2010:Gold Survey 2010 Update 1,Disclaimer,The information and opinions contai

38、ned in this presentation havebeen obtained from sources believed to be reliable,but no,representation or warranty,express or implied,is made that suchinformation is accurate or complete and it should not be reliedupon as such.This presentation does not purport to make anyrecommendation or provide in

39、vestment advice to the effect thatany gold related transaction is appropriate for all investmentobjectives,financial situations or particular needs.Prior to makingany investment decisions investors should seek advice from theiradvisers on whether any part of this presentation is appropriate totheir

40、specific circumstances.This presentation is not,and shouldnot be construed as,an offer or solicitation to buy or sell gold orany gold related products.Expressions of opinion are those of GFMSLtd only and are subject to change without notice.,Producer Hedging in 2009,Producer de-hedging generated 254

41、 tonnes of demand in 2009.Net supply from the mining industry increased 13%to a four-year high.The delta-adjusted hedge book,at end-2009,stood at just 236tonnes,equivalent to one month of annual mine supply.Major de-hedging undertaken by several key participants:Dominated by Barrick in the second ha

42、lf of 2009,though wellsupported by AngloGold Ashanti.Outlook:Given the now very limited volume(historically)of theproducer book,and its concentration among few producers,GFMS expect a further slowing of the rate of de-hedging in 2010.,World,Investment,Jewellery Fabrication,(excluding scrap supply),Jewellery Fabrication and World Investment Demand,(Excluding Scrap,Quarterly),Source:GFMS;*the sum of implied,investment,bar hoarding,all coins,