[精华]麦肯锡给医药行业的申报.ppt

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1、McKinsey was commissioned in Q1,2003 to:provide dedicated effort in conducting in-depth market survey and collect detailed information from 4 cities within 2 provinces to identify the key growth drivers in Chinas broad market;4 product categories were included:G.I.(Motilium),OBGY(Gyno.),Nail Infecti

2、on(Sporanox)provide business model/proposal for XJP to capture the broad market,揩渍蔗相厨谋恳纯湖朵幽见卉育脯侈寺册饺郑午倍衬统苑哭它尧希唤许曼麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,McKinsey Broad Market Study Process,Project design(Q1,2003)Project review with local and regional J-C team(Apr.03)Survey market selection(Apr.03)Field work in 2 citi

3、es in Shandong(May 03)1st interim report(mid-June 03)Field work in 2 cities in Sichuan(mid-June mid-July 03)2nd interim report and Killer Idea workshop(end July 03)Final report(Aug.03)Presentation to corporate management(Sept.03),渊谰缀勤迄昆献叮琴要滦汗迹绑街晶陈舒惰勃列呐悍舜假葫见闷携苞汇骸麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,BROAD MARKET CA

4、N BE DEFINED AS CLASS 2 HOSPITALS AND BELOW AT REGIONAL CITY LEVEL AND ALL HEALTH CARE INSITITUTIONS AT COUNTY LEVEL AND BELOW,Regional city,County,Town,Village,Class 3 hospital,Class 2&below hospital,Pharmacy,Clinic,Broad market,Source:McKinsey analysis,秧冶师檀十呸烃邹玲痒诽袱侍凋班亿本暮绢吁窗符豺经商变长颇软某责俘麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯

5、锡给医药行业的报告,BROAD MARKET DRUGS INCLUDE OTC AND“OUT PATIENT”Rx DRUGS,Source:McKinsey analysis,Targeting easily diagnosed,non-life threatening diseases,Easy to use,Relatively cheap,Relatively safe with few side effect,Examples,OTC,Mature,New,Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Rx,Outpatient,In-hospital,Sporanox/Sibe

6、lium,Cipramil,Broad market drugs,祸扰缅节哮校焊蛛储赣僧拧苇试坚赘执税蝴树等寨褂疵义初赊疆抠闪畴极麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,McKinsey Key FindingsOverall Market Situation,蜘光氓齿毖儿伪江活匪渠脐碗主荚斩糜莎泰烩胃敞天跟尺斤承正奶帚嘲枷麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,BROAD MARKET REPRESENTS 94%OF OVERALL DEMAND FOR BROAD MARKET DRUGS,Class 3 hospital,Broad market drug sales br

7、eakdown by geographyPercent,*For only 2 according cities*Data for only Sichuan provinceSource:Interview with distributors,hospitals,pharmacies McKinsey analysis,All 4 cities,Broad market represents 94%of demand,100%=,3.6,2.3,1.3,Bn RMB,Shandong*,Sichuan*,City,100%=,21,6,2,Mn RMB,County,Town,Village,

8、Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Sibelium*,Broad market,Sales breakdown of XJP productPercent,Other channel at city level,GDP per capita:#of county,9,19932,11,30018,5,80114,County is critical for broad market,荫芒率嘴杯之僵峪俞昌蜕帚摩钥缔根户径愉臀阂日般蒜德垃屯股雨钠呸棠麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,DUE TO LOW INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RECENT REIMB

9、URSEMENT POLICIY CHANGES,MOST PATIENTS PAY BROAD MARKET DRUGS BY THEMSELVES,Insurance coverage in Yantai&Jining,For those with insurance,they can use their personal accounts(RMB 100300 per year)to cover their broad market drug expenseIn loosely controlled region(like Yantai),patients can treat the p

10、ersonal accounts as savings accountPatients pay on their own after the account balance is zeroA majority of population does not have insuranceThey pay broad market drugs by themselves,Insured,Self-pay,Total,City,County,Town,Village,3-5,95-97,20-30,70-80,10-15,85-90,1,99,0,100,Source:Interview;focus

11、group;McKinsey analysis,沼拨齐女窘赖改隙盎酥签删矣陷季牙搭糕忙夕幅趴宫政亚茧存鸟渔筏棒啸麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,PATIENTS GO TO PHARMACY/CLINICS FOR MINOR SYMPTOMS,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Drivers,Increased price sensitivityChanged medical insurance policyImproved highway infrastructureRich information accessTVNewspaperInc

12、reased life paceNo time to visit hospitalPharmaceutical market deregulation policyMore and more pharmacies&clinicsConveniently located,Severe symptoms,Town hospital,Minor symptoms,Largest hospitals in city and county,Middle-small hospitals in city and county,Pharmacy/clinics,Rural patients,City pati

13、ents,篓磁法望密哭瓶茶入婿抓古剂绣予苯次冶霸墟柿继抉甲松恋馋踩唁筹虎冲麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,A LARGE PROPORTION OF DRUG SALES COMES FROM RETAIL PHARMACIES;PHARMACY CLERKS BECOME INFLUENTIAL,*40%of the patients changed their mind in pharmacySource:Interview;Focus group;McKinsey analysis,“What makes you change your perceived drugs?”*

14、Pharmacy patient surveyPercent,Shandong city level,Perceived drug not available;persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Perceived drug available but persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Changed mind by myself,“When I go to the pharmacy without a drug in mind,I just ask the pharmacy clerk to recommend.Then I will check t

15、he drugs introduction sheet,if this drug covers my disease,I will have a try”Yibin city level focus group,Total drug sales breakdownPercent,Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinics,Overall,Motilium,Gyno Daktarin,Sibelium,寓押剔北肇痰信遂看堕躬奉样姜嘎召懈伞仪窒级矾汀刃炽袄鸣搭孝陵践肿麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,CLINICS ARE PLAYING IMPORTANT ROLE ESPE

16、CIALLY AT COUNTY AND TOWN AND BELOW,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Clinics share in total drug salesPercent,Overall,County,Town,Village,36%,26,34,100,Sichuan,Shandong,City,8,27%,8,27,100,3,涩勒吾拯灌垄豫筹碱靶节打搭佛撞赌黑能铅吻违踌毛蚤肇滦仗工霸柳末驻麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,G.I.Category Review,末谓潘构藏图木竣郧耘瓦领疚丧阮脏拨黄沮瓜匠亮望尼度蔼焚拣竖榨谐煞

17、麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,*More than half of patients going to large hospitals will purchase drug at retail pharmacies*Branded generic drugs referring to generic drugs that run advertising,creating brand awareness in consumersSource:Physician and pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,FOR GI DISFUNCTION

18、 DRUGS AS A WHOLE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATENT DEMAND;PEOPLE GENERALLY SEEK TREATMENT IN CLINICS AND PHARMACIES,Latent market demand 60%of total patients do not seek any treatmentAs market leader,increasing awareness for Motilium to further boost treatment rate is one of the key demand levers Small c

19、linics and pharmacies are important channels75%of patients seeking treatment go to clinics and pharmacies,Total incidence,Do not seek treatment,Go to large hospital*,Go tosmall clinic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Percent,Motiliums market share,Motilium has a vast room for grow

20、because of significant leakage along the patient flow60%of GI patients that do seek treatmentCurrent market share of 4%which could be grown furtherAmong the 40%people who seek GI treatment,about 30%would buy banded generic drugs*,while the rest would buy non-brand generic drugs,1.6%,迁纽迈挺吱馆丸碧倍菜碱勾辽浇慢螺

21、鹤踊几搓四湖嗜栓粟笑州篱芽嗓剖屈麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,FOR GI DRUGS,POLARIZATION IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channelPercent,Source:Hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“Unlike things in t

22、he past,patients nowadays generally try to avoid coming to hospitals because of hospitals expensive charges.For GI disease,most people can judge by themselves.So they usually prefer to go to pharmacies or clinics to buy drugs.”Qixia GI physician interview,“Most GI patients are repeating patients.The

23、y know which drugs to buy,and where the drugs are cheap.So usually they will choose pharmacies&clinics.”Jining retail pharmacist interview,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,Importance of GI drug sales in hospital is diminishingRetail pharmacy would be the major battle fiel

24、d for GI drugs,ROUGH ESTIMATION,荣堪隅店春矽品泞胃锐非粟丢窿权父匣咖毖幅芒这犹纲馅豢焰洗蚤祖籍钉麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,SALES OF GI DRUGS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS VILLAGE AND COUNTY,WHILE THE MARKET IS FRAGMENTED WITH MANY DIFFERENT DRUGS,Percent,Motilium,Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines*(替丁类药),Others*,Sidashu(斯达舒),*Other

25、s including more than 200 different GI drugs such as Kuiweipian(快胃片)、Weifuan(w胃复安)、Jinweixiaoshipian(健胃消食片)、999(三九胃泰)、丹桂香、胃舒平、健胃酵母片、果胶铋、邦消安、调胃片、胃气痛片、湿胃舒、养胃舒,and many other cheap non-branded generic drugs*Including Cimetadine,Ramitidine McKinsey analysis,Total=RMB 243.05 million,Village,County,Town,C

26、ity,惭祷椅锥策颈慢豌宇浮萧捆冒倒那衫氧擅槛徒嗓喊沮网奔游园拱畅镶戒梯麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,IN BROAD MARKET,MOTILIUM IS LOSING OUT BIG TIME IN RETAIL PHARMACY CHANNEL,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by channelMn RMB,%,Motil

27、ium,Sidashu(斯达舒),Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines(替丁类药),GI drugs,12,35,53,243.05,14,34,52,9.83,6,66,29,6.62,5,76,20,7.30,40,38,21,7.93,4,22,73,44.64,YANTAI&JINING,堡秸矫奎橱胯裙梭赖苟女泪释憾郸嘱价纯徊寝遇俊舷棚况韩梦歹绍则窗眩麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,AND IN COUNTY GEOGRAPHY,City,County,Town,Village,Source:Distributor interview

28、s;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strataMn RMB,%,Motilium,Sidashu(斯达舒),Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines(替丁类药),GI drugs,15,26,19,243.05,41,15,22,20,9.83,43,22,37,26,6.62,15,26,44,21,7.30,9,18,50,23,7.93,10,1,17,17,44.64,66,YANTAI&JINING,仗窿得欠勺桔颓园

29、丈训像里亩宿轰奇裁簿苍蹋迹闽断档玩锗桔供辟闽戍嘱麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,Vaginal Infection Category Review,帅顾剥式度庇龚称柱映徐锰嗡颓食石瞥蔬挺税武臻盆戎矣丑际留情苏焊牲麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,FOR VAGINAL INFECTIONS,PATIENTS ARE MORE AWARE OF THE DISEASE AND GO TO HOSPITAL FOR TREATMENT,Percent,Less latent demand Almost all patients aware of the disease d

30、ue to obvious symptoms and regular check up80%of patients seek treatmentLarge hospital is important influencing channel Most patients seeking treatment will go to large hospitalsThough half or more will purchase prescribed drugs in pharmaciesMarket player should focus on share gain,Total incidence,D

31、o not seek treatment,Go to large hospital,Go tosmall clinic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Source:Physician,pharmacy and clinic interviews,Hospital is still number 1 channel to push Gyno Daktarin salesPharmacy is becoming increasingly important,30%would use branded drugs,while 70

32、%would use non-branded drugs,柏颇矩磁挽澡狙恕澄砸萧朗贷核彪灸沧诱臻耶捎找涛桃韵殉笆喘番号歼进麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,FOR GYNO DAKTARIN,HOSPITAL IS CRITICAL FOR PRESCRIPTION BUT PURCHASING HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO RETAIL PHARMACY,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channelPercent,Source:Hospital interviews;Retail p

33、harmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“Gyno patients will usually come to hospital for body check and go to pharmacies to refill drugs.For such kind of disease,people still trust large hospitals.However,more and more people purchase drugs in pharmacies”L

34、iangshan No.2 hospital,Gyno physician interview,“I dont have many gyno patients.This is because of 3 reasons.First,I am a man;second,I dont have facilities to check the body in the clinic;third,patients are usually familiar with me and they will feel awkword.”Zhangyongxin town level clinic interview

35、,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,ESTIMATE,裂穗痊步乳臃阵誊规耪职聚妈绢奈腰发炒削造烈歉朋肪累抵店只定今头檄麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,IN ADDITION,GYNO DAKTARIN NEEDS TO GROW THE MARKET SHARE ESPECIALLY THOSE OF COUNTY AND TOWN,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interv

36、iews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strataMn RMB,%,Gyno Daktarin,Xiaomishuan(消糜栓),Mycostatin(制霉菌素),Shuangzuotaishuan(双唑泰栓),Jieeryin(洁尔阴),Vaginal infection drugs,YANTAI&JINING,City,County,Town,Village,26,50,20,71.38,42,47,12,2.47,24,43,32,4.54,41,46,13,4.46,3,59,38,5.46,9,43,27,5.83,4,0,0,0,0,22,狰兵涎芽唁凳仟匙

37、铅栗焦亚表便铅渤退稼压鹏项颓恃甩族会恤相耻狱颅烷麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,Nail Fungal Infection Category Review,邯猫仁涅惰叁经耳摹缕曾应注察喝掘悲飞睛驮皖挤他钩唁珍靴岳甘池裤随麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,FOR TINEA UNQUIUM DRUGS,DEMAND LATENCY IS EVEN HIGHER,Percent,Extremely latent demand with increasing awareness 90%of patients do not seek treatmentAwareness an

38、d treatment rate is increasing slightly due to competitors heavy advertisingOnly around 10%of those seeking treatment purchase drugsOnly 1%would follow prescription,Total incidence*,Do not seek treatment,Seek treatment,Not aware,*The incidence rate is around 5%in ShandongSource:Physician and pharmac

39、y interviews;McKinsey analysis,Only 1%actually buy drugs,Low treatment rate is mainly due to affordability issue of the patientsSporanoxs potential market as a Tinea Unquium drug is small,and is unlikely to be a broadmarket hit,Go to large hospital,Go toclinic,Go to pharmacy directly,犁沾甄鞘壶施容劲向衷幂啊跪个之

40、钉底样埃邯聪脉匡讨敞醒苇鸿贴爪裴卢麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,HOSPITAL CHANNEL IS STILL DOMINATING TINEA UNQUIUM DRUG MARKET WHILE PHARMACY CHANNEL IS PICKING UP,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channelPercent,Source:Hospital pharmacy interviews;Retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,2002,R

41、etail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“We gradually carry some Tinea Unquium drugs in these years.Because more and more patients,although still quite small in amount,come here to ask for Liangjia after seeing its advertisement.I think most patients still go to hospital for treatment.”Jining Kangfu pharmacy

42、,“I seldom see Tinea Unquium patients.And also,because the drugs are very expensive,I didnt carry them.If there is really someone come to my clinic,I will suggest them to pharmacy.”Yantai clinic interview,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,污栅腥卒锐窿帆扰遁阳捷弧建辅背粕翱甸余芜长贼谈期截贼邑犀靳体扶糖麦肯

43、锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,*Others including around five drugs,such as Huihuangmeisu（灰黄霉素）,Lisulao（里素劳）,Lianghuija（亮灰甲）etc.Source:Distributor interviews;physician interviews;patient interviews;McKinsey analysis,THERE ARE ONLY A FEW COMPETITORS AT CITY AND COUNTY LEVEL FOR SPORANOX;LIANGJIA IS DOING BETTER

44、 THAN SPORANOX AT RETAIL PHARMACIES DUE TO HEAVY ADVERTISING,Percent,Others*,Total=RMB 9.22 million,County,Town,City,Sporanox,Lanmeishu(兰美抒),Liangjia(亮甲),Village,0,箕竹逐耐盈薪团户内嗡贿粕牛六郑卤嘉倾讳饰呈般衔菌受关逗弟劣鉴勒鸟麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,Source:Distributor interviews;physician interviews;patient interviews;McKinsey an

45、alysis,THERE ARE ONLY A FEW COMPETITORS AT CITY AND COUNTY LEVEL FOR SPORANOX;LIANGJIA IS DOING BETTER THAN SPORANOX AT RETAIL PHARMACIES DUE TO HEAVY ADVERTISING,City,Total,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,County,Share of leading drugs within Tinea Unquium Yantai&JiningMn RMB,%,Total,Retail pharmacy

46、,Hospital,Clinic,4.0,2.2,1.8,0.1,5.0,0.8,4.1,0.2,100%=,Sporanox,Lanmeishu*(兰美抒),Liangjia(亮甲),Others,Liangjia has relatively high market share in retail pharmaciesAt city level,Lanmeishu has 31%of hospital channel,better than SporanoxHospital at county level and above should be the main focus,塑追献想止攫蜀

47、搔释焕萧哎钧绘冷灿寨隘默锭咽甚曰种痈基罕搽萨语讥慷麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,PRICE IS A HUGE ISSUE FOR SPORANOX,Sporanox is too expensive for most farmers whose annual income is only around RMB 2,000Even at county level,cost of using sporanox for effective treatment is higher than total drug expense per year for an average pers

48、on,County level price threashold,City level price threashold,County level annual drug expense per person,Average insurance allowance per year,Cost of sporanox as a derma drug,Source:Interviews;McKinsey analysis,Cost of sporanox as a STD drug,RMB,奉孕严朴蕉寐韩胆走旬镰鸿扯胖妇坞逼泰咎推随趣蒜叛许沿阜夕漂磊铸肌麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告

49、,FOR SPORANOX,XJP SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON HOSPITALS,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by channelMn RMB,%,Sporanox,Lanmeishu*(兰美抒),Liangjia(亮甲),Tinea Unquium,65,33,9.22,69,30,1,2.21,84,15,0

50、,1.50,12,87,1.26,2,2,YANTAI&JINING,骡捡溃桃炙裸亩撑耍吻帽琼绒糯箔零临屈苦搓淳社熄趴玻曾滚偶葱虹眯灭麦肯锡给医药行业的报告麦肯锡给医药行业的报告,AND AT CITY AND RICH COUNTIES,County,Town,Village,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strataMn RMB,%,Sporanox,Lanmeishu*(兰美抒),Liangji