A股策略周报：震荡上行趋势不变把握节奏与结构机会0107.ppt

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1、A,A,2013,1,7,1.79%,A,20121.96%,V,0.77%,A,300,2013,010-,S1010510120004,LME12,11,COMEX,0755-S1010510120038021-68768323,1 2,“,”2013,S1010512050004010-S1010511090003,IPO,IPO,IPO,010-S1010512060002,12,PMI,12,PMI,010-,AH,A,H,IPO,1,3,4,5,6,7,10,11,12,13,14,17,19,21,22,23,24,A.1.2.5.6.10.16,12/31-1/4,.1,2 A

2、,12/31-1/412/31-1/4,.1.1.1,12/31-1/4,.2,12/31-1/4,.2,PMI.3,89,PMI,PMI,.3.3,PMI.3.4.4.5.5,1516,10,10,.6.6,.7,1820,ETF,SHIBOR,.7.7.7.8.8.8.8,25,12,28,.8,26,27,32,34,35,36,40,3 12,4,5,A.8.9,2829,12/31-1/412/31-1/4,.10.10,30,12/31-1/4,.10,31,12/31-1/4,.10,.12,33 12,.12.13.13.13,3738,AH,H,.14.14,39,300,.

3、14,.16,1,2012,12,.4,2 12,PMI,.11,.11.14.17,12/31,01/04,2.9%,2.8%,2.8%,2.0%,A,12,A,A,2012,2013,2012,A,2013,A,V,4,300,1.79%,1.96%,0.77%,0.44%,0.33%,1,12/31-1/4,2,A,12/31-1/4,2300,2.5%,2290228022702260,2.0%1.5%1.0%,1.79%,1.96%,0.77%,2250,2240,0.5%,223022202210,MM/DD,0.0%-0.5%,-0.44%,-0.33%,-1.0%300,Win

4、d,Wind,3,45.0%,4.6%,12/31-1/4,543210-1-2,2.0,3.6,3.90.6,3.7,3.1,1.4-0.8,0.80.7,4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%,3.8%,3.0%2.2%,0.7%,2.6%1.7%0.0%,-3-4,-3.2,-2.5,-2.1,0.0%,-5,-4.3,1Y,3Y,5Y,7Y,10Y,15Y,20Y,Wind,Wind,12,500,LME,COMEX,NYBOT,CBOT,13%,12,2%,7%,9,1,A,5,Wind,12/31-1/4,6,Wind,12/31-1/4,0PMI

5、,1,2012,2012,9,2013,Wind,Bloomberg,2013,GDP,9 1,7.9%,8.2%,2013,1,1,2012,12,PMI,50.6%,11,3,5,52.0%,0.6%,0.5%,49.0%,51.2%,0.3%,47.3%,48.8%19,1.1%51.5%,PMI,12,12,50.9%PMI,PMI,PMI,PMIPMI,122,07/01,10/01,10/04,07/06,07/11,08/04,08/09,09/02,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,10/10,10/07,09/07,09/12,10/05,10/10

6、,11/03,11/08,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/06,12/11,12/10,10/01,10/04,10/07,10/10,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/10,A,60,7,PMIPMI,PMI,%,60,8,PMI2012/11,2012/12,%,555550,50,45,45,Wind,PMI,YY/MM,40,CEIC,2012,12,2012,9,56.1%,54.2%,12,61.9%,2011,12,9,PMI,%,10,PMI,%,70605040,58545046,6560555045,30,Y

7、Y/MM,42,40,YY/MM,CEIC,CEIC1 2,3,12,24,2013,2,20%,2013,3000,40%3,10/01,10/04,10/07,10/10,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/10,10/01,10/04,10/07,10/10,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/10,A,1,2012,12,2012/8,2012/9,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,GDP,%,7.4,7.8,2013/1/18 10:00,%,8.913.220.

8、22672.7-2.7,9.214.220.52779.82.4,9.614.520.732011.62.3,10.114.920.71962.90.0,10.114.720.62055.53.3,2013/1/18 10:002013/1/18 10:002013/1/18 10:002013/1/10 11:302013/1/10 11:302013/1/10 11:30,CPIPPIM2,%,2.0-3.513.57039,1.9-3.614.86232,1.7-2.814.15052,2.0-2.213.95229,2.3-1.913.95650,2013/1/11 9:302013/

9、1/11 9:302013/1/10 15:052013/1/10 15:05,Bloomberg Wind,12,1,12,11,CPI,PPI,12,PPI,12,PMI,CPI12,12,116000,1.14,5650,11,12,11160012008004000,1225002000150010005000,%,400,Bloomberg,YY/MM,500,CEIC,YY/MM,4,A,2012,12,2013,201345,1,1,2013,40,35%DAX,39.6%2.19%2.35%,11.37100,123.07%,CAC40500,4.2%2.2%,6.2%2.55

10、%2.54%,2.89%401%,1.71%1.7,25,6200,13,CEIC,14,CEIC,10,2013,1,3,2012,12,5,7,A20132015,15,10,%,16,10,%,Wind,1011,2,Wind6000IPO,SHIBOR,4.58%,4.05%,6,201201,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201301,A,17,18,SHIBOR,14 12,10%8,SHIBOR:SHIBOR:2,SHIBOR:1,10,864,64,20,

11、20,mm-dd,07-01,08-01,09-01,10-01,11-01,12-01,13-01,01-04,03-04,05-04,07-04,09-04,11-04,01-04,Wind,ETF,6.8,Wind,PMI,19,(,),20,ETF,ETF,300200100,2500240023002200,50403020100-10,25002400230022002100,0100200,2100200019001800,-20-30-40-5001-13,04-13,07-13,mm-dd10-13,200019001800,Wind,Wind,150IPOIPO7,10-0

12、1,10-04,1/4,10-07,1/11,1/18,1/25,2/1,2/8,2/15,2/22,3/1,3/8,3/15,3/22,10-10,11-01,11-04,11-07,11-10,12-01,12-04,12-07,12-10,2009-01,2009-04,2009-07,2009-10,2010-01,2010-04,2010-07,2010-10,2011-01,2011-04,2011-07,2011-10,2012-01,2012-04,2012-07,2012-10,1/4,1/11,1/18,1/25,2/1,2/8,2/15,2/22,3/1,3/8,3/15

13、,3/22,A,2110008006004002000,Wind,2210008006004002000,Wind,23,10,24,12,28,A-,5,8,/,3500,234567,%,3500300025002000,76543,300025002000,89 150009-01 09-09 10-05 11-01 11-09 12-05 13-01Wind,2 150009-01 09-09 10-05 11-01 11-09 12-05 13-01Wind,25,12,28,26,806040200,:,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,/,3500300025002000

14、1500,Wind1,2,Wind,8,A,16,27,9,2%,A29,285%4%3%2%,12/31-1/4,294.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%,3.54%,12/31-1/4,1%0%,1.5%1.0%,0.68%,1.05%,0.60%,0.85%,0.48%,-1%-2%,Wind,0.5%0.0%-0.5%,Wind,0.08%-0.08%,303.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%,12/31-1/4,313%2.19%2.18%2%1%1%0%,0.78%0.74%0.73%,12/31-1/4,0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%,Wind,-1%-1%-2%-

15、2%-3%,Wind,-1.44%-1.72%-1.73%,-2.13%-2.18%,12,PMI,21,11,12,PMI,50%,PMI,10,50%,40.5%,PMI,PMI,-10,APMI,PMI,14,11,3.7PMI,19,PMI,12,12,40%,70%,4,50%,2,12,PMI,%,PMI,-,50.5846.9049.4352.3550.3140.5255.5345.9055.2249.8643.3257.0445.0352.4650.0561.9850.9442.3046.3056.6649.0350.02,0.03-1.194.29-1.32-0.80-4.8

16、06.34-4.314.55-0.083.312.88-8.40-1.87-4.229.704.07-13.32-3.710.46-7.874.95,-0.02-2.346.98-4.41-0.34-7.7513.48-10.414.10-2.3910.224.64-15.83-8.07-4.2114.976.65-18.81-8.09-0.40-17.8012.29,0.664.16-5.2410.42-5.7110.254.99-13.79-6.82-4.26-3.56-0.870.0011.06-1.124.291.190.014.55-2.637.153.23,-0.55-5.305.

17、500.735.91-7.49-2.17-6.277.825.220.942.34-12.417.79-7.784.34-4.720.72-5.512.65-4.75-2.64,-2.1315.51-8.670.870.19-16.13-8.91-7.88-3.59-5.35-9.9410.48-16.766.834.32-0.144.65-20.06-9.025.09-8.203.55,3,12,%,56.1072.0054.1047.8050.2043.6057.7060.5058.3077.0066.5077.8060.50,56.8365.099.0253.5049.6249.0656

18、.2556.8845.1177.3167.0277.8457.71,0.505.80-6.00-1.20-5.100.203.501.3020.90-4.002.70-2.301.30,54.3060.4057.5047.0047.6044.1058.4052.8054.5069.5066.1071.5055.60,53.2758.529.5849.4144.4647.5154.6251.4344.0469.6861.3072.2552.73,1.10-4.603.800.50-4.001.504.201.6017.103.208.70-2.10-7.70,11,A,45.4045.6039.

19、6066.6051.0051.0052.90,47.1847.7141.2471.1051.1657.7354.05,-13.00-3.403.1013.30-8.903.800.70,52.1046.0035.0061.6053.1051.6055.20,48.6545.4343.2365.9449.9855.7445.86,-2.10-3.102.506.90-3.506.00-0.90,CCIndex328 CCIndex527 CCIndex229,10,/,12,8.7%,2,1,7/11,9/11,8/10,9,32,Wind,33,12Wind,12128,57,43,8.59%

20、,12,54,1112,A34300250,244,236 241,245,200150 175,211,185 180,175,197,165,178,210,179 183 180,188 184 194 194,167,186,199 198,184,204,181,100,50,62,62,75,0,12/5,12/7,12/9,12/11,12/13,12/15,12/17,12/19,12/21,12/23,12/25,12/27,12/29,12/31,1/2,Wind,2011,11,-12,49BPI,3514000120001000080006000400020000,Wi

21、nd,BCI BDI,H,H,360-2000-4000-6000-8000-10000-12000-14000,10%20%WindAH,60%,5%30%,99.41,97.85,A,H13,A,37,AH,38,H,21.81.61.41.210.80.60.40.20,Wind300,A/H,300,2007,1.210.80.60.40.20,WindTMT,A/H300,TMT,393.532.521.510.50,300,Wind,2007,TTMPE,1,4,2013,42013201214,A2013,201320132013,12 3,2013,2012,1800,2013

22、201320132013,2,1,31,20135%2013,201320132013201320132013201320132013,72,2013,/,2013,3,3.15,201320132,2013,2012,2013,1,2,28%,15,100,225,KOSPI,TWSE,300,A,2013,1,2,2013,Android,2013,WindA12,300,2013,1,4,5.8%,PE,3.4%40,10.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%,5.2%5.1%,9.1%9.4%,5.1%,4.7%,6.1%5.0%,5.4

23、%5.1%,4.6%4.1%,4.0%3.6%,5.8%,3.4%,Wind,Bloomberg,2013,1,4,3,1,1,IPO,2,IPO16,A,5,2013,12,PMI,1,2013,1,10,2013,1,11,CPI PPI,A,2013/1/71/1120132,150,1,Wind17,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereb

24、y certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expr

25、essed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited C

26、ompany(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,