第1季度中国甲级写字楼市场季度报告.ppt

《第1季度中国甲级写字楼市场季度报告.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《第1季度中国甲级写字楼市场季度报告.ppt（10页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。

1、E-COMMERCIAL CHINA RESEARCH PUBLICATION,E-COMMERCIAL CHINA,Grade A Office Market Report,Q1 2011,Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen Tianjin,Preface,According to the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS),China maintained its double-digit growth in 2010,ending the yearwith a growth rate of 10.3%.In the f

2、irst quarter of 2011,Chinas economy maintained steady growth and real estateinvestment in this period increased 24.1%from the previous year.Nevertheless,China is confronted with two issues;firstly excess liquidity in the economy is creating inflationary pressure,and secondly China must contend with

3、achallenging international economic environment.In light of this,the central government is expected to persist with thecurrent prudent monetary policy and continue to raise interest rates.We expect residential real estate developers inparticular will face huge pressure as a result of this.,The gover

4、nments increasingly prudent macro-policy has severely restricted the residential market,which has meanttransaction volumes in many cities has fallen.In light of reduced opportunities in the residential market,more and moreinvestment is being shifted to the commercial market,which opens up the possib

5、ility of it heating up in the future.Therapid development of the economy coupled with the relative abundance of liquidity in the market will serve to increasedemand for leasing,purchasing and en bloc investment in the prime office market.,In the Grade A office market this quarter,average rental rate

6、s in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen allrecorded increases.The rental growth rates in Guangzhou and Shenzhen were higher than in Beijing and Tianjin,highlighting the quicker growth trend in South China compared with North China.Amongst Chinas five major cities,Shenzhens average rental rates

7、grew the fastest at 8.6%from the previous quarter.,Meanwhile,prices in the prime office market for these cities rose in the range of 4%-9%,while investment demand forprime office locations increased as a result of tightening policies in the residential market.,New supply of Grade A office projects i

8、n Chinas five major cities was relatively small with only one Grade A office inShenzhen,with a GFA of 31,050 sm coming on stream.Currently,in terms of stock of Grade A offices,Shanghai andBeijing still rank first and second respectively.Meanwhile,current stock of Grade A office in Tianjin is small,h

9、owever aconsiderable amount of new supply is expected to come on to the market in the next three to five years propelled by thedevelopment of the Binhai New Area and the city center.Large leasing demand this quarter has meant vacancy ratesin all five cities fell,with Beijing maintaining the highest

10、vacancy rate at 17.7%and Shenzhen the lowest at 5.8%.,The en bloc investment market remained active in the first quarter.In Shanghai,the Singaporean ARA fund purchasedShanghai Shengbang International Building for RMB 1.16 billion from Capital Strategic.,In summary,very little new Grade A office spac

11、e was added this quarter,yet demand remains strong.At the same time,current stock was further taken up and vacancy rates fell.Leasing and investment demand for prime office space isexpected to continue rising in the short-to middle-term.,1,0,0,0,Grade A Office Stocksm3,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000

12、,0001,500,0001,000,000500,000,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou Shenzhen,Tianjin,Average Grade A Office RentsRMB psm/month30025020015010050,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou Shenzhen,Tianjin,Average Prime Office PricesRMB psm35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou Shenzhen,Tianjin,Not

13、e:When describing price trends we use the term prime office which includes both Grade A and B offices.2,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q310,Q410,Q410,Q111,Q111,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q

14、409,Q110,Q210,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q410,Q111,160,140,120,100,80,160,140,120,100,80,60,Beijing,In the first quarter of 2011,Beijings office marketcontinued to maintain a steadily increasing trend.Average Grade A office rents re

15、ached RMB 273.5 psmper month,a rise of 5.2%q-o-q and 14.2%y-o-y.Amongst major office areas,average Grade A officerents were highest in the Financial Street area,reachingRMB 312.9 psm per month,signifying an increase of4.2%q-o-q.Meanwhile,average Grade A office rents in the CBDreached RMB 287.2 psm p

16、er month,an increase of 5.3%q-o-q.Driven by rental increases in the Oriental Plaza,averageGrade A office rents in the Wangfujing area reachedRMB 265 psm per month,an increase of 3.9%q-o-q.In other business districts,namely the East Second RingRoad(E2R)area,Lufthansa area and Zhongguancunarea,Grade A

17、 office rents reached RMB 240.6,RMB238.2 and RMB 248.9 psm per month respectively,representing increases of 5.8%,7.5%and 4.2%q-o-q.In the strata sales market,the average price of primeoffice continued to maintain its upward trend,largelyfuelled by robust demand.At the end of the quarter,average pric

18、es stood at RMB 25,321 psm,rising 5.5%q-o-q and 14.1%y-o-y.In the first quarter,no new Grade A projects came onstream while leasing demand remained brisk,causingthe vacancy rate to fall 3.5 percentage points to 17.7%.Major leasing transactions in the first quarter includedBP and CITIC-Prudential eac

19、h leasing approximately26,000 sm of office space in the WFC.ElsewherePolycom leased 25,000 sm of office space in Pingan,Beijing Grade A Office Rental IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)18060Beijing Prime Office Price IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)180Grade A Office Supply,Take-up&Vacancy Rate10,000 sm,International Fin

20、ancial Center.Currently,there are several en bloc investments beingnegotiated in the commercial market.Notably,ChinaMinmetals will acquire The Fifth Square which is a GradeA office building in E2R area at a total price of RMB 4.5billion.,50403020100-10,5040%30%20100-10,New Supply,Take-up,Vacancy Rat

21、e,3,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q310,Q410,Q410,Q111,Q111,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q

22、210,Q310,Q410,Q111,160,140,120,100,80,60,180,160,140,120,100,60,Shanghai,In the first quarter of 2011,the Shanghai office marketcontinued to warm up.Average Grade A office rentsreached RMB 297.7 psm per month,an increase of 4.9%q-o-q and 10.9%y-o-y.Amongst all main areas,average Grade A office rents

23、 inthe Jingan District not only remained the highest at RMB351.2 psm per month but also grew at the quickest rate(8.6%q-o-q).Elsewhere,average Grade A office rents in theHuangpu,Lujiazui,Xuhui and Luwan districts reachedRMB 299,RMB 296.3,RMB 300.7 and RMB 307.1 psmper month respectively,representing

24、 increases of 7.3%,4.2%,4%and 3.3%q-o-q.Significantly,these areas,Shanghai Grade A Office Rental IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)180,maintained,a,relatively,high,rental,growth,rate,demonstrating the robust demand fundamentals in the,city center.In the sales market,prompted by sustained demand,theaverage prim

25、e office price reached RMB 30,343 psm atthe end of the quarter,an increase of 3.9%q-o-q and10.8%y-o-y.No new Grade A projects came on stream in this quarter.Accordingly,overall vacancy rate of Shanghais Grade Aoffice fell 3.1 percentage points q-o-q to 9.6%,the lowestsince the outbreak of the global

26、 financial crisis in Q32008.In the leasing market,Credit Suisse rented 7,000 sm ofoffice area in the IFC in Lujiazui;Greathorse BusinessConsultants rented 2,600 sm of office area in DBS Tower(Lujiazui);RBS rented 1,800 sm of office area inWheelock Square(Jingan),whilst KWG Property rented1,500 sm of

27、 office area in United Plaza(Jingan).,Shanghai Prime Office Price IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)80Grade A Office Supply,Take-up&Vacancy Rate10,000 sm,In the investment market this quarter,the SingaporeanARA fund purchased Shanghai Shengbang InternationalBuilding for RMB 1.16 billion from Capital Strategic.

28、,50403020100-10,5040%30%20100-10,4,New Supply,Take-up,Vacancy Rate,Q106,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q410,Q111,Q111,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q30

29、7,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q410,Q111,Q310,Q410,160,140,120,100,80,60,140,120,100,80,60,Guangzhou,In the first quarter of 2011,the Guangzhou office marketcontinued to maintain an upward trend.Average Grade Aoffice rents reached RMB 128.5 psm per month,anincrease of

30、5.7%q-o-q and 15.6%y-o-y.Grade A office rents of all main areas increased.Averagerents in the Pearl River New City remained the cityshighest,reaching RMB 144.8 psm per month,an increaseof 5%q-o-q.Meanwhile,average rents in the TianheSports Center area reached RMB 132.2 psm per month,an increase of 5

31、.3%q-o-q.In Huanshidong area,averageGrade A office rents reached RMB 111.6 psm per month,an increase of 9.8%q-o-q.Average rents in ZhongshanRoad,Dongfeng Road and Pazhou reached RMB 107.9,RMB 105 and RMB 76 psm per month respectively,representing increases of 0.5%,2.4%and 2.7%q-o-q.In the strata sal

32、es market,investment shifted towards thecommercial real estate market as a result of thepromulgation and implementation of the purchaserestrictions in the residential market.The Guangzhouoffice market performed robustly in this quarter with theaverage prime office price rising 5.7%q-o-q to RMB17,384

33、 psm.Average prices in the Yuexiu District rosefastest,reaching RMB14,668 psm,an 8.8%increaseq-o-q.Meanwhile,office prices were highest in the TianheDistrict,reaching RMB 19,787 psm,an increase of 2.9%q-o-q.Impacted by construction delays caused by the 2010Guangzhou Asian Games,no new Grade A projec

34、ts cameon stream in this quarter.Fuelled by the rebounding economy and the developmentof industrial planning in Guangzhou,Grade A office,Guangzhou Grade A Office Rental IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)180Guangzhou Prime Office Price IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)180160Grade A Office Supply,Take-up&Vacancy Rate,dema

35、nd in the financial,banking,IT and electronicssectors was further enhanced,prompting the vacancyrate to fall 2.7 percentage points to 10.3%.Notably,theBank of Communications leased an office area ofapproximately 40,000 sm in the Poly Tower V Building inthe Pearl River New City.,10,000 sm50403020100-

36、10,5040%30%20100-10,New Supply,Take-up,Vacancy Rate,5,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q310,Q410,Q410,Q111,Q111,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q

37、407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q410,Q111,160,140,120,100,80,60,180,160,140,100,80,60,Shenzhen,A combination of strong demand in the office market andincreasing interest amongst investors for commercialproperty as a result of the tight macro control policyaffecting the res

38、idential market meant that not only didaverage rents and prices grow rapidly in Shenzhen,butthere was also buoyant activity in the investment market.At the end of the first quarter,average Grade A officerents had risen to RMB 165.8 psm per month,a rise of8.6%q-o-q and 15.4%y-o-y.Among major areas,Gr

39、adeA office rents in the CBD remained highest,averagingout at RMB 181.4 psm per month,an increase of 7.3%q-o-q.In comparison,average rents in Caiwuwei,Guomao,and Chegongmiao areas were RMB 154,140,140 and 150.1 psm per month respectively,representingincreases of 12.8%,7.7%,0%and 11.2%q-o-q.TheHuaqia

40、ngbei was the only area not to exhibit anychanges in its average rental rates.In the strata sales market,the average price of primeoffice stood at RMB 31,640 psm,rising 8.6%q-o-q and17.1%y-o-y.Amongst major areas,average prime officeprices were highest in the CBD area,rising 7.7%q-o-q toRMB 41,609 p

41、sm.In this quarter,Honglong Century Plaza,a Grade A officebuilding located in Luohu District came on stream,providing 31,050 sm of new supply.As a result ofShenzhens rebounding economy,demand for Grade Aoffice in the financial,banking,IT and electronics sectorswas further enhanced.This quarter saw G

42、rade A officevacancy rates drop 2 percentage points to 5.8%.In 2011,new supply of Grade A office in Shenzhen willbe concentrated in the Luohu and Futian districts,most,Shenzhen Grade A Office Rental IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)180Shenzhen Prime Office Price IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)120Grade A Office New Su

43、pply,Take-Up&Vacancy Rate10,000 sm,of which will be for leasing only.In the next quarter,moreinvestment is expected to be shifted from the residentialmarket to the commercial market.Meanwhile,continuedeconomic growth coupled with strong demand for GradeA office space will continue to push prices and

44、 rents up.,50403020100-10,5040%30%20100-10,6,New Supply,Take-up,Vacancy Rate,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q310,Q410,Q410,Q111,Q111,Q106,Q206,Q306,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q106,Q206,Q30

45、6,Q406,Q107,Q207,Q307,Q407,Q108,Q208,Q308,Q408,Q109,Q209,Q309,Q409,Q110,Q210,Q310,Q410,Q111,160,140,120,100,80,160,140,120,100,80,60,Tianjin,The Tianjin Grade A office market continued its steadygrowth in the first quarter of 2011.Average rentsreached RMB 141.4 psm per month,a rise of 2.7%q-o-qand 5

46、.4%y-o-y.Among the major office areas,average Grade A officerents were highest in the Nanjing Road area at RMB143.9 psm per month,representing an increase of 2.5%q-o-q.Average Grade A office rents rose at the quickest rate inthe Xiaobailou area,rising 3.4%q-o-q to RMB 142.7 psmper month.In the Youyi

47、 Road area,average Grade A office rentsremained relatively steady at RMB 120 psm per month.In the strata sales market,average prime office pricereached RMB 14,409 psm,an increase of 7.4%q-o-qand 23.1%y-o-y,which was largely driven by priceincreases of quality projects such as Global FinancialCenter

48、and Emperor Place.Affected by construction delays,no new Grade A officeprojects came on stream in the first quarter,meaningmarket stock was further taken up,and the vacancy ratecontinued to fall.Specifically,the Grade A office averagevacancy rate dropped 1.4 percentage points to 9.6%,the lowest sinc

49、e 2006.Office demand in the financial,banking,trade,IT,electronics and consulting industries grew rapidly.Notable leasing cases were found in the InternationalBuilding,The Exchange in Nanjing Road area;ICTC inXiaobailou area and City Mansion in Youyi Road area.Impacted by tight macro control policy

50、in the residentialsector,investment in Grade A offices increased rapidly.,Tianjin Grade A Office Rental IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)18060Tianjin Prime Office Price IndexIndex(Q1 2006=100)180Grade A Office Supply,Take-up&Vacancy Rate10,000 sm,The price gap between office and luxury residentialprojects in