2011年全球电子商务趋势.ppt

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1、eCommerce Trends In 2011 And Beyond,Sucharita Mulpuru,Principal Analyst,November 1,2010.Call in at 10:55 a.m.Eastern time,The bull is back.at least in eCommerce.,Agenda,Retailers continue to report growth,YOY growth by eCommerce retailers,Bases:varies(all eCommerce retailers),Source:Forrester/Shop.o

2、rg Quarterly Flash surveys,We expect this to continue,US$MM,Source:Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model,12/09(US),CAGR2010-144%10%,This is also a market share issue,Source:Forresters Consumer Technographics 2005 North American Benchmark Study and North American Technographics Benchmark Survey,

3、2009(US,Canada),Base:all US households,Agenda,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthA continuing to take share from big-box retailers;new revenue models“Antisocial”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serviceSimplic

4、ity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization,and continued improvementGlobalization,Multichannel means different things.,.but it is extremely critical,“Buy online,pick up in store was THE value proposition.”-Former president,big-box electronics retailer(US),The future is Gappos,In-store pi

5、ck up and variants of it,for virtually all product categories,will be an expectation for the future.Some innovative retailers will use marketplace models to drive traffic to physical stores and expand assortments while also reducing shipping expenses.,Multichannel will be a competitive advantage,Bas

6、e:1,345 US online consumers who have used the“buy online,pick up in store”feature when purchasing online from a retailer,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online Survey,Q3 2008,*Percent who responded 4 or 5 on a scale of 1(strongly disagree)to 5(strongly agree),Trends in eCommerce,Multicha

7、nnel growthA continuing to take share from big-box retailers;new revenue models“Antisocial”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serviceSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization,and continued impro

8、vementGlobalization,This has been a trend for awhile now,Site-to-store isnt an option;its an imperative to ensure that store basket size doesnt decline over time,26%of online consumers say they are willing to buy online at a store that has in-store pick up to avoid paying shipping.20%of online consu

9、mers say they are more likely to buy at an online store that has an in-store pick up program.17%of online consumers said they took more advantage of in-store pick up during the 2009 holidays than in the past.,eCommerce as a%of total retail,More than one-tenth of non-grocery sales are online.,Source:

10、Forrester eCommerce forecast;Q1 2010 and Q3 2009 Online Retail Surveys,.however many consumers want to use site to store programs,Triad Digital is the intermediary providing ancillary content by manufacturers to eCommerce sites like Wal-Mart.,Searchandise Commerce enables manufacturers to“bid”for to

11、p placement on multicategory,multivendor relationships.,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthA continuing to take share from big-box retailers;new revenue models“Antisocial”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serv

12、iceSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization,and continued improvementGlobalization,Social works in select ways,Ho-hum,More hope,This is why social commerce should be used carefully,“Which of the following are true about how you use social networking sites(e.g.,MySpace,Facebook)?

13、”,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online Survey,Q3 2009(US),Consumer adoption of social networks for retail,Using social networks for retail or shopping purposes is uncommon.,Base:online consumers who visit social networking sites,Communities can give way to innovation,Hyundai launched a

14、 private online community for Hyundai owners passionate about the brand.It used the community to tap into consumer concerns.It launched the Hyundai Assurance and Assurance Plus programs in response to feedback from the community.Car sales in January 2009 were up 14%over January 2008.Other OEMs copie

15、d the program.,The biggest impetus to using the social networks often starts off the networks,10%+of traffic and revenue comes from social networking sources,mainly Facebook and Twitter.,Quorus(a mock up here)enables shoppers to have instant chat sessions with friends on their Facebook(or other)soci

16、al networks;this also extends to mobile devices.,Facebook and A have teamed up to provide recommendations based on what others in your Facebook network like.TurnTo lets you see who else in your network has purchased from a site,is a fan of a site,or is even a buyer of certain products.,Even when not

17、 selling,this helps put a face to a brand,ASOS.com encourages its employees to use Twitter to listen,connect with shoppers,spot trends,and resolve customer service issues.,F is like“GoodReads meets Polyvore”and allows people to flag items they like and comment on them;this is another skin of crowdso

18、urcing content.,A framework to think about,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthAmazon continuing to take share from big box;new revenue models“Anti-social”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serviceSimplicity in

19、eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization and continued improvementGlobalization,Brands have no choice but to sell direct,“To what degree does competition between branded and private label goods challenge your companys ability to collaborate with its trading partners?”,Source:2006 Shared Strat

20、egy Study by Forrester Research,Consumer Goods,Technology and RIS News,Base:89 retailers and 80 manufacturers,Competition for eyeballs:manufacturers are the“frenemy”,Source:October,23,2009“The State Of Retailing Online 2009:Profitability,Economy,And Multichannel”Forrester report.,Base:online consume

21、rs,Source:Asia Pacific Technographics Survey,Q4 2008;European Technographics Benchmark Survey,Q22009;North American Technographics Benchmark Survey,2009,“When I find a brand I like,I stick to it.”%who responded 4 or 5 on a scale of 1(strongly disagree)to 5(strongly agree),Many consumers are very bra

22、nd loyal,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthAmazon continuing to take share from big box;new revenue models“Anti-social”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serviceSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,pe

23、rsonalization and continued improvementGlobalization,Mobile commerce has emerged,“How frequently do you access the Internet on your mobile phone?”,Base:41,249 US adults with a mobile phone,*37,327 US adults with a mobile phone,and*30,453 US adults with a mobile phone,Source:North American Technograp

24、hics Benchmark Survey,2008(US,Canada);*North American Technographics Benchmark Survey,2009(US,Canada);*North American Technographics Benchmark Survey,2010(US,Canada),Even Asia is still emerging,Base:Asia Pacific online adults ages 18+who own a mobile phone,Source:Asia Pacific Technographics Survey,Q

25、4 2009,This is affecting retailers Web traffic,Source:“The State Of Retailing Online 2010,”a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research,Base:61 online retailers,This is happening with barely any effort,Source:“The State Of Retailing Online 2010,”a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research,B

26、ase:66 online retailers,Smartphone use is still evolving,but customers are using these devices while shopping in stores,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online Survey,Q3 2009(US),Base:3,332 US Web buyers,Base:635 US Web buyers who currently use a mobile smartphone(multiple responses accep

27、ted),Some consumers are also buying directly from their mobile devices;this will grow significantly over time,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online Survey,Q3 2009(US),Base:635 US Web buyers who currently use a mobile smartphone,Base:100 US Web buyers who have used their mobile smartphon

28、e to purchase a product,This represents the checklist of the“ideal”mobile retail site,Most popularProduct and price informationAlerts for online sales and specialsCustomer ratings and reviewsCouponsShipping notification,Other less popular featuresUser manuals and other product informationExpert revi

29、ewsGift registry accessEasy payment optionsLoyalty program access in stores,“What kind of information and alerts does your company currently offer customers via its mobile app/site?”,Mobile buyers who buy via phone purchase more than just ring tones,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online

30、 Survey,Q3 2009(US),Base:99 US Web buyers who have used their mobile smartphone to purchase a product,Nearly half of Web buyers most recent mobile purchase cost$50 or more,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online Survey,Q3 2009(US),Base:96 US Web buyers who have used their mobile smartphon

31、e to purchase a product,$100 or more24%,$50 to$99.9921%,$1 to$4.993%,$5 to$9.9914%,$20 to$49.9923%,$10 to$19.9913%,$0.01 to$0.993%,“Thinking about your most recent purchase using your mobile phone,approximately how much money did you spend?”,Mean spend:$62,One in four mobile shoppers is transacting

32、through their smartphone at least monthly,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online Survey,Q3 2009(US),Base:101 US Web buyers who have used their mobile smartphone to purchase a product,Satisfaction and ease of use with mobile shopping have room to grow,Source:North American Technographics

33、Retail Online Survey,Q3 2009(US),Base:100 US Web buyers who have used their mobile smartphone to purchase a product,“.how easy was the shopping experience?”,“Thinking of your most recent purchase using your mobile phone.”,“.how satisfied are you with the shopping experience?”,Very easy 528%,441%,319

34、%,2 7%,Very difficult 1 6%,Very satisfied 535%,438%,317%,2 3%,Not satisfied 1 7%,Cost of connectivity and security concerns must be overcome to drive more mCommerce,Source:North American Technographics Retail Online Survey,Q3 2009(US),Base:3,332 US Web buyers,Very easy 528%,441%,319%,Very satisfied

35、535%,438%,317%,The role of mobile through the pre and post purchase process is still TBD,Best Buy is experimenting,Amazons SnapTell merges online and offline,Whats next in mobile is already here(though not yet broadly adopted),“Weve already fallen behind in areas that are important problems because

36、were buying sees and garden gnomes on Facebook.”Daniel Lyons,Newsweek,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthAmazon continuing to take share from big box;new revenue models“Anti-social”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch cus

37、tomer serviceSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization and continued improvementGlobalization,Consumers shop more online during the holidays than even during the first three quarters of the year,Web share as a%of total retail sales(2009 approximation),Source:Forrester analyst est

38、imates;National Retail Federation;Q4 2009 Pre-Holiday Survey,Attitudes toward online shopping during the holidays,Base:US Web buyers,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthAmazon continuing to take share from big box;new revenue models“Anti-social”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMob

39、ile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and different ways to service customersSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization and continued improvementGlobalization,The future is also leveraging remote data and people,V-desk is a live chat tool that is also a Webcam.Staples is us

40、ing this in Canada.Kohls has introduced kiosks to stores to provide an extended assortment and support for out-of-stock items.,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthAmazon continuing to take share from big box;new revenue models“Anti-social”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile gr

41、owthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serviceSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization and continued improvementGlobalization,Site optimization(features and functions),Number of sites,Source:Forresters 1,224 Web Site User Experience Reviews,versions 2-7,S

42、ite deliverability will be a growing problem,2009No browser has more than half the market2004 One browser dominated,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthAmazon continuing to take share from big box;new revenue models“Anti-social”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasona

43、lity of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serviceSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization and continued improvementGlobalization,Daily dashboards(here,PowerReviews)can provide insights into what products may be trending well(or not).BuySight is a behavioral targeting v

44、endor that uses millions of data points from other sites to improve landing pages and display advertising.,A little known data point from the past,Its a complex landscape,but this could be the future of interactive marketing,Trends in eCommerce,Multichannel growthAmazon continuing to take share from

45、 big box;new revenue models“Anti-social”behaviorManufacturers direct-to-consumer activityMobile growthSeasonality of eCommerceMore video and high-touch customer serviceSimplicity in eCommerce site executionTesting,personalization and continued improvementGlobalization,eCommerce has no borders,Source:Forrester Research World Online Population Forecast,2010 To 2014(Global),This is increasingly common,Questions?,Sucharita MTwitter:smulpuru,