CHINAHEALTHCARE:CHINAEDGEP109:MONTHLYDATATRACKERJANUARY0131.ppt
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1、Buy,Date,2012,2012,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaHealth CareHealth Care,IndustryChina Healthcare,Date30 January 2013Industry UpdateJack Hu,Ph.D,China Edge P109:Monthly datatracker,January 2013Deutsche Bank monthly data tracker,January 2013Recent data suggest 1)government healthcare spending
2、 decreased 12%YoY inDecember;2)patient monitor and ultrasound exports from Shenzhen customsgrew 26%YoY in December;3)January 6-APA and 7-ACA prices were slightlylower than those in December;and 4)TCM raw material prices remain mixed.We advise investors to exercise caution when interpreting these dat
3、a points.Government HC spending growth:13%YoY in 2012,the lowest since 2008Government healthcare spending was RMB117.2bn in December,representing-12%YoY and 91%MoM growth,the lowest in the last 12 months.Totalgovernment HC spending was RMB719.9bn in 2012,representing only 13%YoY growth.The significa
4、nt growth deceleration supports our view thatreimbursement coverage expansion will not be the primary growth driver forthe sector anymore,while salary inflation is likely to take over.,Research Analyst(+852)2203 Companies FeaturedSihuan Pharmaceutical(0460.HK),HKD3.442011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)20.3 14.7
5、 12.6EV/EBITDA(x)11.9 8.1 6.7Price/book(x)1.7 1.9 1.7Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Hold(2607.HK),HKD15.282010A 2011E 2012EP/E(x)17.4 16.2EV/EBITDA(x)8.3 5.6Price/book(x)0.0 1.3 1.3,Shenzhen exports:13%growth in 4Q12 vs.0%in 3Q12;recovery underwayExports of patient monitors and ultrasounds from Shenzhen c
6、ustoms recorded26%YoY and 51%MoM growth in December 2012,compared with3%/11%/0%YoY increases in September/October/November 2012,respectively.For 4Q12,shipments increased 13%YoY.This new data pointsuggests a modest rebound,which could be positive for Mindray in 1Q13,asshipment data is a leading indic
7、ator of international sales.,The United Laboratories(3933.HK),HKD3.71P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),Buy2011A 2012E 2013E121.2 19.3 15.419.6 8.3 7.11.1 0.9 1.0,6-APA and 7-ACA prices were slighter lower than last monthAs of January 2013,the 6-APA price was RMB180/kg and 7-ACA price wasRMB510/kg,both
8、 slightly lower than the previous month.We attribute this tocontinuous policy tightening on antibiotics usage.In the past nine months,corn prices increased 1%.We remain cautious on the long-term pricing trendfor 6-APA and 7-ACA.TCM raw material prices:QKL and Shen Mai ingredients mixedSince the Nati
9、onal Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines torelease stock and lower prices in July 2011,we have seen a steep decline inprices.The prices of honeysuckle and indigowoad root(the main ingredientsused in Shineways flagship product,Qing Kai Ling)fell 2%MoM andincreased 3%MoM in January 201
10、3,respectively.Shen Mais mainingredients,ophiopogon root and gadix ginseng,were down 8%and up 11%.,Mindray Medical(MR.N),USD38.60 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)16.8 21.6 19.1EV/EBITDA(x)11.5 14.5 12.5Price/book(x)2.6 3.4 3.0WuXi PharmaTech(WX.N),USD16.10 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)12.0 11.8 10.8EV/EBITDA
11、(x)7.0 6.2 5.0Price/book(x)1.5 1.9 1.5China Shineway(2877.HK),HKD14.00 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)13.9 13.1 11.3EV/EBITDA(x)8.8 7.7 6.5,We prefer multiples-based valuation;risks relate mainly to policy/regulations,Price/book(x),2.1,2.2,2.0,We use a multiples-based valuation approach in light of the s
12、ustainable growth,that we expect from the sector.Industry risks relate mainly to government,Related recent research,policies and regulatory changes in China,in particular healthcare reforms,which could negatively affect pricing.Additional risks generally relate to risingraw material costs and overex
13、posure to the EDL(Essential Drug List)and RDL(Reimbursement Drug List).,China Edge P92:Monthly datatracker,September 2012China Edge P94:Monthly datatracker,October 2012China Edge P99:Monthly datatracker,November 2012China Edge P101:Monthly datatracker,December 2012,27 September01 November28 November
14、201203 January2013,_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report a
15、s only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,May-07,May-08,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Jan-07,Mar-07,Jan-08,Mar-08,Nov-07,Nov-08,Jan-09,Mar-09,Jan-10,Mar-10,Nov-09,Jan
16、-11,Mar-11,Nov-10,Jan-12,Mar-12,Nov-11,Jul-12,Nov-12,Sep-07,Sep-08,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Sep-12,in,49.2,55.1,30 January 2013Health CareChina HealthcareDecember healthcarespending declined 12%YoY12%YoY decrease in DecemberAfter strong growth of 21%YoY in 3Q12,government spending growth dropped to-6%Yo
17、Y in 4Q12.In 2012,total government spending was RMB719.9bn,representing only13%YoY growth.In December,growth decelerated to-12%YoY.This breaks down to,16%/14%/31%/2%/2%/-12%,YoY,July/August/September/October/November/,December 2012,respectively.See Figure 4 for details on monthly spending.We remind
18、investors that 2012 budgets for fiscal spending represent 14.1%growth,vs.2012 actual spending growth of 13%,the first year of under-delivery since 2008.Thesedata points confirm our projection of constraints in local government financing forhealthcare spending,as mentioned in our report 2012 Outlook:
19、A year of stabilization,published 12 December 2011.,Figure 1:Monthly government spending on healthcare(January 2007 to December 2012),Figure 2:Annual government spending on healthcare(2000 to 2012),RMB bn,Monthly,YoY%,RMB bn,150,143.0,90%,800,720,125,118.6,133.2,117.2,70%,700,637,600,25%CAGR(2000-12
20、),100,50%,500,475,80.8,75,57.1,58.1,66.056.2,60.254.4,75.371.166.861.357.2 56.2,30%,400,399,50,46.4 47.4 46.8,49.3,47.9,10%,300,276,250,17.0,25.2,28.5,31.2,-10%-30%,200100,49,57,64,78,85,104,132,199,0,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC;January and February 2
21、011 data was extrapolated from YTD April 2011 data,as both monthswere not provided by the governmentPage2,Source:CEIC,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,1Q07,2Q07,3Q07,4Q07,1Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,30 January 2013Health CareChina Hea
22、lthcareFigure 3:Quarterly government spending on healthcare(1Q07 to 4Q12),RMB bn250,Quarterly spending(LHS),YOY growth(RHS)240.2,80%,226.4211.0,200,195.1,181.8 82.4,60%,168.6,150,124.9,151.1,129.3,40%,111.5102.7,100500Source:CEIC,88.0,76.9,20%0%-20%,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page3,30 January 2013He
23、alth CareChina HealthcareFigure 4:Monthly government spending on healthcare(January 2008 to November 2012),RMB bnJan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10A
24、ug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12,Monthly9.48.015.015.817.023.118.219.025.220.523.680.812.112.821.624.624.233.626.920.128.521.031.0143.011.713.424.332.332.238.2
25、28.535.547.434.258.1118.618.518.539.946.456.266.047.449.254.446.860.2133.231.231.266.849.357.275.355.156.271.147.961.3117.2,MOM%-84%-15%89%5%8%36%-21%5%32%-19%15%243%-85%6%68%14%-2%39%-20%-25%42%-26%47%361%-92%14%81%33%0%19%-25%24%34%-28%70%104%-84%0%115%16%21%17%-28%4%11%-14%29%121%-77%0%114%-26%16
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