上海世博会对房地产市场影响投资分析.ppt

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1、,1,3,4,6,6,6,7,8,10,12,Line 9,1,DTZ China InsightShanghai Expo 2010Unlocking New Markets,12 March 2010ContentsExecutive summaryIntroductionShort-term impactLong-term impactInfrastructure investmentNew commercial hubsSuburban officesSatellite citiesDevelopment opportunitiesThe bigger picture,On 1 May

2、 2010,Shanghai will open its doors to the world as host tothe 2010 Universal Expo.The event is expected to have a long-lastingimpact on the city and act as a major spur for real estate change in andaround Shanghai.The main legacies of Expo 2010 will be long-term and indirect.Theshort-term impact wil

3、l be limited to Shanghais retail and hospitalitysectors,where heightened demand will drive retail rental growth andpush up average hotel room rates over the six-month period.This boost will be short-lived.As Expo fever fades,retail rents andhotel room rates are forecast to soften as declining touris

4、t numbersand falling occupancy rates coincide with an overhang of new supply.In the long-term,significant investment in infrastructure will open up,ContactsAuthorsShaun BrodieHead of East China Research+86 21 2208 0529,13,whole new commercial hubs in Shanghai.In line with this,circa 5.3million sq m

5、of new grade office supply is expected to come onto themarket over the next four years.This new supply will be met by increasing demand from domesticcompanies.Our forecasts point to an increase in average grade Aoffice rents from Q4 2010 onwards,by over 15%in the following 12months.,Kate MedlicottRe

6、al Estate Strategy,Research+65 6393 Contacts,Opportunities for investors and developers will not be confined to thecity itself.Many of the new metro lines branch out to emerging satellitecities(Map 1),where growing demand will bolster prices for residentialand community retail.This trend is already

7、evident,with retail pricesjumping by around 20%in some emerging areas in 2009 alone.Map 1Metro line expansion to open up Shanghais nine satellite citiesShanghai,David Ji,North,Chongming,Head of North Asia Research+852 2507 Baoshan,David Green-MorganHead of Asia Pacific Research+61(0)2 8243 9913,Jiad

8、ingLine 11Line 20,Line 3,Line 19,david.green-Qingpu,Hans VrensenGlobal Head of Research+44(0)20 3296,SongjiangRailway,MinhangLine 5Fengxian,Line 21,Lingang,JinshanSource:DTZ R,2,Shanghais main commercial areasMap 2Shanghais main commercial areas,Shanghai,Legend,District BoundariesNorth,New Jiangwan

9、Town,Central Commercial AreasSuburban Commercial Areas,Daning,Hongkou,YangpuWujiachang,Expo Site,Zhenru,Zhabei,Shanghai Railway Stn,North Bund,PutuoChangfeng Park,Jingan,Lujiazui,PudongCentury Avenue Project,Changning,Zhongshan Park,Huangpu,Western Changning,Hongqiao,Luwan,Century Park,Xuhui,PuxiMin

10、hangSource:DTZ R,Xujiahui,th,3,Chinas investment in Shanghai Expo to exceed Beijing Olympics,Introduction:what makes Shanghai Expodifferent?International Expositions,or Expos,are large scalepublic exhibitions used by participating countries topresent new inventions and facilitate economic,technologi

11、cal,scientific and cultural exchange.Exposare the third largest events in the world in terms ofeconomic and cultural influence.Only the FIFA WorldCup and the Olympic Games have a greater impact.Shanghai Expo will be held over a six month period,from May to October 2010.Based on the theme“Better City

12、,Better Life”,participants from around theworld will exchange their experiences of urbandevelopment,disseminate advanced notions on citiesand explore new approaches to human habitat,lifestyle and working conditions in the new century.Alongside the recent success of the Beijing Olympics,Guangzhous su

13、ccessful bid to host the 16 AsianGames in November 2010 and Beijings anticipatedbid for the 2015 World Athletics Championships,Shanghai Expo 2010 endorses China as a globalevent destination.But,what about life after Expo?Historically,Exposfall into two categories:those that provide atemporary specta

14、cle and those that leave long-lastinglegacies by becoming important instruments forrenewal and catalysts for urban regeneration andeconomic growth.Whilst most fall into the formercategory,on numbers alone,Shanghai seems set tocome under the latter:An estimated US$45bn(RMB 307bn)is beinginvested in S

15、hanghai Expo.This is more thanwas spent on the Olympic Games in Beijing;Only three Expos have ever made a profit.It isestimated that Shanghai Expo will generatebetween US$176-220bn(RMB 1.2-1.5 trillion)ofproduction value,one third of which will occurafter the Expo has ended;At 5.28 sq km,the Expo si

16、te is the largest inhistory;Throughout the six-month duration of the Expo,an estimated 70 million people are expected tovisit Shanghai and the site 65 million fromChina and 5 million from overseas,with anaverage of 400,000 visitors per day;Finally,Shanghai Expo is the first ever Expo tobe held in a

17、modern developing,The chosen site for the Shanghai Expo(Map 1)hasstrategic relevance in terms of the growth and shapeof the city.The 5.28 sq km site stretches along theHuangpu River,encompassing part of Puxi(thesouthern parts of Huangpu and Luwan)on the northside,as well as part of Pudong on the sou

18、th side ofthe river.Previously an industrial area comprising272 outdated and polluting factories,docks,dwellingsand warehouses,the massive redevelopment of thesite represents an important(public)platform for thesustainable development of the city.The concept of sustainable development has playedan i

19、ncreasingly important role in Expos ever sincefirst being introduced in 1974.Shanghai Expo 2010follows this trend.Under the theme“Better City,Better Life”,the organisers of Shanghai Expocommitted themselves to 1)minimising negativeenvironmental impacts;2)showcase green solutions;and 3)make the city

20、greener.The theme wascreated to promote Shanghais status as a majoreconomic and cultural centre.Unlike other World Expos,development associatedwith the Shanghai Expo has not been restricted tothe site itself but has filtered out to other areas andranges from the completion of a new transportationinf

21、rastructure network to the redevelopment andupgrading of other parts of the city.The current global economic climate presents manychallenges to the success of Shanghai Expo,and willto some extent determine the extent of the short-termimpact of the Expo on the Shanghai real estatemarket.Regardless of

22、 this,the physical changesbrought about by the Expo are permanent.With thisin mind,we look at the short-term and long-termimpact of the Expo on real estate markets,both inShanghai and in the wider Yangtze River Deltaregion.,Map 3,sq m,600,000,500,000,400,000,0,350,000,sq m,200,000,100,000,0,4,Short-

23、term impact Expo effect on market dynamicsConstruction stoppage to have limited impact,on office&retail supply,Construction restrictions during Expo 2010,The short-term impact of Expo 2010 on Shanghaisreal estate market will vary by sector.There will betwo major influences on the market:firstly,a,Sh

24、anghaiNorth,LegendExpo SiteArea AArea BDistrict boundariesTunnels-auxiliary projects for the Expo,stoppage in construction activity in certain designatedareas between early April and the end of October2010(Table 1 and secondly,the 70 milliontourists that are expected to descend on Shanghai,for the e

25、vent.The impact of these two factors on theoffice,retail,hotel and residential sectors will bedetermined by supply and demand dynamics.The majority of future supply of grade A office spaceand high-end retail in Shanghai is located outside ofArea A,where construction activity will be mostcurtailed.As

26、 such,the imposed stoppage inconstruction is not expected to impact the market to,PuxiSource:DTZ Research/Shanghai Municipal Government,Pudong,any great degree.According to our data,only oneoffice project and two high-end retail projects will beaffected.Completion of the office project will bepostpo

27、ned by around six months(Figure 1),from Q22011 to Q4 2011,whilst one of the retail projects willdelay completion by one quarter only(Figure 2).Thesecond retail project has actually brought forwardcompletion in order that it is open in time for the Expo.In the residential sector,construction restrict

28、ions willinevitably have an effect on developers salesstrategies.Some developers may speed upconstruction and marketing programmes to unveilhigh-end projects before Expo so as to conserve a,Figure 1Shanghai grade A office annual future supply(Q12010 Q4 2011)300,000200,000100,000Q1 2010*Q2 2010*Q3 20

29、10*Q4 2010*Q1 2011*Q2 2011*Q3 2011*Q4 2011*,continual sales income during the event.Other high-end projects could well be delayed.This will result ina temporary lull in new supply of residential,Estimated future supplySource:DTZ Research,Estimated postponed supply,properties in the affected areas.Un

30、surprisingly,most four and five star hoteldevelopments in the city have timed their completion,Figure 2Shanghai high-end retail annual future supply(Q12010 Q4 2011),to correspond with the Expo and will thus not feel anyimpact from the restrictions.300,000,Table 1Construction restrictions between 1 A

31、pril and 31October 2010Area A:Piling,foundation and demolition work,constructionactivity and road work will be prohibited.Area B:Piling,demolition and excavation work will be,250,000150,00050,000,Q1 2010*Q2 2010*Q3 2010*Q4 2010*Q1 2011*Q3 2011*Q4 2011*,prohibited.Source:DTZ Research/Shanghai Municip

32、al Government,Estimated future supplySource:DTZ Research,Estimated postponed supply,Estimated advanced supply,5,Short-term impact increased tourist numbers to positively affectretail and hotel sectors,Average hotel prices to escalate as demandsurges;related increase in footfall will push upretail re

33、ntsOf the main commercial sectors,Shanghais hoteland retail sectors are expected to experience thebiggest impact from the Expo in the short term.Demand for high-end retail space is driven bycorresponding economic numbers,mainly retail sales.If retail sales are strong,so more retailers will look tose

34、t up shop or expand their existing businessoperations.Increased footfall as a result of the Expowill significantly boost retail sales(already at 14%year-on-year in downtown Shanghai).In view oflimited new supply and increased demand,theaverage rental for downtown high-end retail isexpected to see a

35、steady increase throughout 2010(Figure 3).Given the sheer volume of visitors,Shanghais hotelsector will see occupancy rates soar during the Expoperiod.Occupancy rates currently stand at 50.63%for four star hotels in the city and at 53.95%for fivestar hotels.Strong demand will filter through to aninc

36、rease in average room rates.The Expo related boost to Shanghais retail and hotelsectors will be short-lived.Life after Expo will see ashift in trend as declining tourist numbers feedsthrough to falling occupancy rates in both sectors.Inthe retail sector,this will coincide with a steadyamount of new

37、supply coming to the market.As aresult,retail rents are expected to soften in 2011.Inthe hotel sector,average room rates will fall.Figure 3Shanghai downtown average high-end retail netasking first floor rental and occupancy(Q1 2010 Q42011),Leasing demand for Grade A office space inShanghai is much m

38、ore subject to the global anddomestic economy rather than to events such asExpo.In the absence of any remarkable bounce backin the global economy in the next couple of years,demand from multinationals for extra space in the cityis expected to remain relatively soft.By contrast,we expect the domestic

39、 economy to bemuch more resilient,spurred on by continued banklending and stimulus packages from the government.This will help domestic businesses and,as a result,domestic companies are expected to play a greaterrole in take-up of grade A office space in the future.Figure 4 shows our short term rent

40、al and occupancyforecasts for the Shanghai grade A office market.These forecasts are based on the predicted state ofthe economy,the envisaged amount of new supplyand expected demand.The residential market will experience little or noExpo related boost.Any impact will be indirect andwill arise from t

41、he Expo event enhancing investorsperception of Shanghai as a world city.As with theoffice sector,the residential sector is influenced to agreater extent by the performance of the economy as well as the accessibility of mortgages,attractiveinterest rates and government policies pertaining tothe high-

42、end residential property market.Figure 4Shanghai average grade A office gross asking rentaland occupancy(Q1 2010 Q4 2011),RMB/sq m/day54.554.053.553.052.552.051.5,occupancy(%)9492908886848280,RMB/sq m/day6.86.66.46.26.05.85.65.45.2,occupancy(%)86858483828180,Q1 2010*Q2 2010*Q3 2010*Q4 2010*Q1 2011*Q

43、2 2011*Q3 2011*Q4 2011*,Q1 2010*Q2 2010*Q3 2010*Q4 2010*Q1 2011*Q2 2011*Q3 2011*Q4 2011*,Estimated retail rentalSource:DTZ Research,Estimated retail occupancy,Estimated office rentalSource:DTZ Research,Estimated office occupancy,400,km,350,300,250,100,0,1996 1997 1998-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2

44、006 2007 2008 2009 2010*,North,6,Long-term impact investment in infrastructure will create newopportunities“Keeping in mind the next 60 years while preparing for the six month Exposition”The main implications of Expo 2010 for real estate will be long-term and indirect.The major impacts will not bere

45、stricted to Shanghai alone,but will filter out to the wider Yangtze River Delta region,and ultimately to MainlandChina as a whole.The main driver of change in Shanghai will be the expansion of the citys metro transportation infrastructure.By April2010,Shanghai will have a total of 420km of metro lin

46、e double the length recorded at the end of 2008.This growthhas accelerated since the city won the bid to host the 2010 Expo in 2002(Figure 5)and makes it one of the fastestgrowing rapid transit systems in the world.As new lines become operational and allow for easier travel to outer areas,we expect

47、to see the formation of new commercial hubs,the growth of suburban offices and the creation of satellitetowns in the wider Shanghai area.The formation of new commercial hubs,New commercial hubs are emerging at strategicpoints along the expanded metro system.Thesehubs will offer attractive alternativ

48、es to office tenantslocated in the CBD.In turn,retailers will be drawn to,Figure 5The amount of Shanghai metro line completed per year(1996 2010),these areas.One such example is the CenturyAvenue Project in Zhuyuan,Pudong,which sitsdirectly above the Century Avenue metro stop(Map4).As of 31 December

49、 2009,this stop acts as amajor interchange for four lines(lines 2,4,6 and 9)the only such interchange in Shanghai.200,Lujiazui Finance&Trade Zone Development Co.andHutchinson Whampoa have already seized theopportunity presented by this transportation node,150,purchasing a site each on which to devel

50、op office,retail and hotel space.The majority of thisdevelopment is expected to be completed by 2012.,50Tunnels 1999 auxiliary projects fo,Tenants will be drawn to the Century Avenue projectby the high quality of stock,good connectivity and thelower rental levels in comparison to nearby LittleLujiaz