下半中国经济展望.ppt

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1、2011,6,29,2011010-S1010510120003,GDP,8%,9.2%,9.6%,010-S1010510120052,2011,6,CPI,010-,3-4%,2011,CPI,4.7%,010-60838230,010-60838023,23%,25,2-3,75%,1.2011,6.2011-06,2.2011-05,%,3.2011,2008,2009,2010,2011F,2012F,.2011-04,GDPCPIPPI,9.65.96.925.521.6,9.2-0.7-5.430.115.5,10.33.35.523.818.3,9.64.76.424.616.

2、2,9.73.24.123.516.1,4.5.,.2011-04.2011-04,1,17.218.52.52,-16.0-15.72.25,31.338.82.75,19.724.63.50,17.419.83.50,6.,.2011-04,RMB/USD,6.83,6.83,6.62,6.22,5.92,7,2011,3,.2011-03,GDPCPI,2010 1Q11.92.2,2010 2Q10.32.9,2010 3Q9.63.5,2010 4Q9.84.7,2011 1Q9.75.0,2011 2Q F 2011 3Q F 2011 4Q F9.5 9.2 9.65.7 4.9

3、 3.4,8.2011,.2011-03,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,14,2011.1.2.4.7.8.13.13.17.23.29.35.3723%.37.40.47.47.48.49,1 2011,.2.3.3.3.3.4.4.4.5,10 S&P/Case-Shiller,.5,.5.5,13,PMI,.6PMI.6,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,28,29,30,31,32,34,36,37,38,40,41,42,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,2011.7.7.8.8.9.9.9,2223,CPIGDP,CPI.9.1

4、0,24252627,GDPGDPGDPCPI,.10.10.10.10,.11.11.11.11.12,3335 PMI,GDP,.12.13.14,.15.15.15,39,GDP,3%.1610%.16.17.17,43,10,.17,16.2%.18.18.18.18.18.19.19.19.20.20.20,55,4-5,36%,31%.21,56,37,31,.22,58,59,60 5,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,74,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,89,90,91,92,96,97,98,2011,57,

5、37,31,.22,.22.23.23,61 2010,.24.24.24.24.25.25.26.26.26.27.28,72 201173 2011,PPI,CPI,.29.29.29,75,M1,.30.30.30.31.32.32.32.33.33.33.34.34.34,88 2093 GDP94 PMI95,90,/,.35.35.36.36.36.38.38.38.39.39.39,2,102,103,104,106,107,108,109,/,112,113,114,121,123,124,125,126,5,128,2011,99100101,PPI-PPIRM21,.39.

6、40.40,.40.40.41,105 2011,1-4,.41.41.41.42.42,110111,GDP,.42.42.43.43.43,115116,3,3,.43.44,117 PPI118 PPI119 PPI,.44.44.45,120122,PPI,PPI,PPI.45.45.45.47.47.48.48,127 2011,1.3,.48.49,1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,17,18,2011.2.3.3.12.12,616 1-4,12ROA,.14.15.19.23.26.27.28.31.37.45.45.46.47,19 2011

7、,2010,.50,20 2011,.50,2011,GDP2011,8.7%,4.7%,2011,CPI,2011,GDP,9.6%,3-4%,2011,CPI,20104.7%,2011,5,CPI,5.5%6,CPI,GDP,8%,GDP,8%,9.6%,9.2%2011,10%,2011,6,29,1,2011,1 20111614121086,GDP,CPI,%1086420-2,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,1,CEIC,2011,%,2008,2009,2010,2011F,2012F,GDPCPIPPI,1RMB/USD,9.65.96

8、.925.521.617.218.52.526.83,9.2-0.7-5.430.115.5-16.0-15.72.256.83,10.33.35.523.818.331.338.82.756.62,9.64.76.424.616.219.724.63.506.22,9.73.24.123.516.117.419.83.505.92,20101Q,20102Q,20103Q,20104Q,20111Q,20112Q F,20113Q F,20114Q F,GDPCPI,11.92.2,10.32.9,9.63.5,9.84.7,9.75.0,9.55.7,9.24.9,9.63.4,20112

9、011,2012,2011,2012,V,2010,0.8%,0.5,2011,6,29,2,-2.0,-4.0,-6.0,4.0,2.0,0.0,2011,2,(IMF)(IMF),(WB)(WB),%,2,2011,2012,%,10.08.06.04.0,(IMF),(WB),WBUNOECDIMF,3.23.34.24.3,6556,3.33.14.24.4,11101011,112114,3.63.64.64.5,6556,3.63.54.64.5,11101011,112114,2.0,0.0-2.0-4.0,Word BankOECD,IMF,2011,05,06,07,08,0

10、9,10,11F,12F,IMF Word Bank,3,(IMF),%(OECD),4,(IMF),%(OECD),5,(IMF),%(OECD),(WB)4.03.02.01.00.0-1.0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11F 12F-2.0-3.0-4.0,(WB)4.03.02.01.00.0-1.0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11F 12F-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0,6.0-8.0,(WB)05 06 07 08 09 10 11F 12F,IMF OECD,Word Bank CS,IMF OECD,Word Bank CS,IMF OECD,Word B

11、ank CS,OECD3,ECB,4,0.25,ECB,2010 10,2011,6,29,3,4,63,20112008-2009,66050403020100,850,150,0701,0707,0801,0807,0901,0907,1001,1007,1101,Bloomberg,8.8%,3,9%,25,9%5,9.1%,200120092011,71210864200701 0707 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101Bloomberg,%6766.56665.56564.56463.5,870060050040030020010000701 07

12、07 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101Bloomberg,2011,6,29,4,0601,0607,0701,0707,0801,0807,0901,0907,1001,1007,1101,0601,0607,0701,0707,0801,0807,0901,0907,1001,1007,1101,0101,0107,0201,0207,0301,0307,0401,0407,0501,0507,0601,0607,0701,0707,0801,0807,0901,0907,1001,1007,1101,0101,0107,0201,0207,0301,0

13、307,0401,0407,0501,0507,0601,0607,0701,0707,0801,0807,0901,0907,1001,1007,1101,9,2011,72500200015001000500011,Bloomberg,-,-,2010 S&P/Case-Shiller220200180160140120100S&P12,/,-,20102%2%1%1%0%-1%-1%-2%-2%-3%,1400120010008006004002000,Bloomberg,(,),3020100-10-20-30-40-50,86420,Bloomberg,(,),6040200-20-

14、40,2011,1.8%,5,PMI,6,18,42.9,11,40,5,2011,6,29,5,2011,136560555045403530,PMI,PMI,1480706050403020,PMI,0601 0607 0701 0707 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101BloombergGrand Bargain,0701 0707 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101Bloomberg,7,8,5,16,1,14.3,2,6,QE3,QE2,3%,9%,2%,2011,6,29,6,-100,2011GDP,2010,

15、GDP,3.3%,5.2%,20112011,0.3%,GDP2011,GDP,GDP,1.4%V,2012,2012,2003,-2007,15,2%,2012,2008V,16,2012,%,8500750065005500450035000701 0707 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101Bloomberg,150010005000-500-1000,100500-500701 0707 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101Bloomberg,2011,6,29,7,0801,0804,0807,0810,0901,09

16、04,0907,0910,1001,1004,1007,1010,1101,1104,0,4,2011,17Trillion yen,Trillion yen,18,%,100908070605040302010,TotalexpendituresTax revenuesConstrnuction bond issuseSpecial deficit-financing bond issues,100908070605040302010,3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%,01975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010OECD,-3.0%,B

17、loomberg,2,GDP,1,GDP,115%,0-0.1%2011,3,2.21%,4,1.17%,9%,2007,2011,6,29,8,12,),2011,194.03.02.01.0,%,208.06.04.02.0,%,0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0,01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09,10 11 12,0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0,01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11,-5.0-6.0,OECD,-8.0-10.0,OECD,21,%,22,CPI,CPI,%,CPI(,CPI,1210864200701 0707 080

18、1 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101Bloomberg,5432100701 0707 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101-1Bloomberg,1.5%,4.8%,GDP,1%,2.2%,0.8%2.5%,GDP,5.5%,0.7%,0.6%,0.8%1%5,PMI,54.8,55.4,3,6,BIS,2010,1363,2,1,2011,6,29,9,0,2011,23,GDP,17.2%,2.5%1.7%1.9%11.5%,16.8%,27.2%21.2%,24,GDP,%,25,GDP,%,35302520151050-5-1

19、0,160140120100806040200,00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11F 12F,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,Bloomberg,Bloomberg,26,GDP,%,27,CPI,%,1.210.80.60.40.2,3.63.43.23.02.82.62.42.2,11-Q1,11-Q2F,11-Q3F,11-Q4F,2.0,11-Q1,11-Q2F,11-Q3F,11-Q4F,Bloomberg,0.3%,Bloomberg1.7%,54%,5,48.2,PMI,20%6%,PMI,8,2011,6,29,10,2011

20、06,201107,201108,201109,201110,201111,201112,201201,201212,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201106,201107,201108,201109,201110,201111,201112,201201,201212,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201106,201107,201108,201109,201110,201

21、111,201112,201201,201212,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201106,201107,201108,201109,201110,201111,201112,201201,201212,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201120111/3,2006,GDP,106%,2007,1.2%2010,2011,GDP3.9%2012,5%,2.6%,4.6%,OE

22、CD,5,283000025000200001500010000500003014000120001000080006000400020000,BloombergBloomberg,2980,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,00003170006000500040003000200010000,BloombergBloomberg,2011,6,29,11,201106,201107,201108,201109,201110,201111,201112,201201,201212,201203,201204,201205,201206,201

23、207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,2011,32,33,GDP,%,GDP%),180001600014000120001000080006000400020000,0-3-6-9-12-15-18,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,Bloomberg,Bloomberg,102.8,91,12.9%,90.7159%,2014,1530,GDP,2010,143%,4,11/06/01,CAA1,11/06/13,CCC,11/5/20,B+*-,Bloomberg,BIS,2010,227,150,542,69%,

24、96%,IMF,5,IMFECB,ECB,ECB,+ECB,EU+IMF,EU IMF,EU IMF,2011,6,29,12,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2011IMF,GDP10%,8%9.6%,2011,9.2%,2011,GDP0.2,1,23,2011,19%,2009,2010,24%,34403020100-10-20,2011,2011,%6543210-1,19%

25、,CEIC,IMF,IMF,5,25.5%5,19.4%,4,10.6,5,1%,2011,6,29,13,0,5,5,2011,5,4,2%,5,PMI,51.1,4,35 PMI6560555045403530,0.2,PMI:,%6040200-20-40,200505,200605,200705,200805,200905,201005,201105,CEIC,6,QE2,12,QE3,5/20116/20117/20118/20119/201110/201111/201112/20111/20122/2012,1706841003134260735321794901870206326

26、259,8,56933,82720,18346,76568,41317,61125,7186,3878,75954,726290958,2,1467,13016,12927,1707,11827,3445,3058,16811,37510,702122587,439477707811143275727941658821835719935120,03391120145733647446633,11,15548,84147,49088,21780,89652,48239,04822,89922,83567,694481,557,CEIC,13.2%,7.2%,4,14,17,5,19%,12,6,

27、2010,1,2011,2,2011,6,29,14,200805,200811,200905,200911,201005,201011,201105,200805,200811,200905,200911,201005,201011,201105,2011,36,%,37,%,6050403020100-10-20-30-40ROA,CEICROA,2009,706050403020100-10-20-30-40,CEIC,3880,ROA,2011,%8,607.540,200,7,200705,200711,200805,200811,200905,200911,201005,20101

28、1,201105 6.5,-20,-407,CEIC,ROA,6,201120102009200820072006,1-4,8.43%7.10%4.97%5.19%5.19%4.94%,10.18%8.40%6.91%9.38%8.74%7.60%,8.23%8.43%7.48%8.04%7.17%6.63%,4.68%6.69%4.25%5.43%4.69%3.68%,8.91%9.81%6.36%8.20%8.70%6.42%,CEICROA3-10,25%,GDP,2011,6,29,15,2011,3-10,3,GDP,10%,3%3-10,10,80,90,3-10,39,GDP,3

29、%,%,32101970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009CEIC,40,10%,%,1210864201970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009CEIC,3-10,3%10%,20002000,GDP,13%,3.4%2.7%,3-10GDP,15%,2.6%,9.5%,20,3-10,1011,2011,6,29,16,1970,1973,1976,1979,1970,1973,1976,1979,1

30、982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,2003,2006,2009,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,1997,2000,2003,2006,2009,2011,41,USA,GDP,%,42,China,GDP,%,3.5,USA,16,3,China,12,15,2.5,32.521.543,CEIC,10,14131211109,21.510.50,CEIC,%,9630,806040200-20,1989,1991,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,CEIC201127%30%30%,

31、16.2%,990700,0.6%,0.5%,2011,6,29,17,（,）,2011,44,16.2%,45,%,23,21191715131197,18161412108642,50901,0907,1001,1007,1101,1107,0,0603,0703,0803,0903,1003,1103,86420,4647,CEICCEIC,2011,486050403020100,CEICCEIC,100,2011,6,29,18,20112,10%,15%,49,%,50,%,450,400350300250200150100500-50,6040200-20-40-60,1003,

32、1006,1009,1012,1103,0701,0801,0901,1001,1101,Wind,Wind,15%,5,-40%,5%5180706050403020100-10-20,10%,2012,%,1004,1007,1010,1101,1104,CEIC830%30%2010,2011,6,29,19,201130%31%20102011,2010,107,27.6,25.1,18.3,19.4,9.7,7.8,27.5%,4,521701309050,Wind,10,690,2015,%,500,53160,%,5414,%,12,12080400-40,1086420,080

33、1,0807,0901,0907,1001,1007,1101,Wind,Wind,2011,6,29,20,2011,5,36%,1968,1,4-5,36%,31%,2,5,535.7%,15%,20105,2010,5,31%,20,556055,4-5,36%,31%,2015,1963,%6055,50454035302520,50454035302520,78,86,94,02,10,18,Wind,2011,6,29,21,39,38,37,35,33,32,32,31,29,29,28,27,26,25,25,24,24,24,24,23,23,2011,56,37,31,%,

34、21161161-4,57,37,31,%,20.016.012.08.04.00.0,(,),3.532.521.510.50,39-37,37-34,33-31,30-28,27-26,25-24,24-23,58222018161412108,%555045403530,95,96,97,98,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,2011,6,29,22,20119,38,35,32,30,28,26,2008-2010,1000,2011,595045403530252015,1-519.3%,25.8%,%,1.3,200303,200403,20

35、0503,200603,200703,200803,200903,201003,201103,CEIC,60403530252015,5,%,200605,200705,200805,200905,201005,201105,CEIC,2011,6,29,23,20112009,2007,2011,25%,2010,20062007,20082009,2010,27%30%24%,19%,61,201019%,27%,624035,2010,2011,1-5,%,30252015,24%,CEIC2010,25%,30%,2011,1050,CEIC,2010,1-5,34.6%,1-4,0.

36、3,1-5,8.8,9.1%,23.8%,1-4,1-5,4.6%,6350454035302520151050,%120100806040200-20-40-60,6450454035302520151050,%6050403020100,0703,0803,0903,1003,1103,200605,200705,200805,200905,201005,201105,CEIC,CEIC,2011,6,29,24,07Q1,07Q2,07Q3,07Q4,08Q1,08Q2,08Q3,08Q4,09Q1,09Q2,09Q3,09Q4,10Q1,10Q2,10Q3,10Q4,11Q1,07Q1

37、,07Q2,07Q3,07Q4,08Q1,08Q2,08Q3,08Q4,09Q1,09Q2,09Q3,09Q4,10Q1,10Q2,10Q3,10Q4,11Q1,20112008,2009,2011,4%,200831%,23,201024%,2008,12200865,12%9%6%3%0%-3%-6%6634%32%30%28%,CEICCEIC22%,/,-,/,/,240%,4,6,26%24%22%20%18%16%14%12%10%21,20102800,1000,8000,811,1000,2011,6,29,25,2011200825%10,2011,1500100050028

38、0020007800,67,2010,2011E,68,%,700600500400300,240%,35%,25201510,16.4,22.2,200100,5,4.6,3.6,3.6,3.3,3.2,3.1,0,0,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009 2010 2011E,6965605550454035,CEIC,14,29%,(,2010,CEIC,%100806040200-20,4,200409,200512,200703,200806,200909,201012,CEIC,2011,6,29,26,2011,70,%,6050403020100CEIC4

39、3,11,5,44,14,14,%,201127.528.531.554.136.934.626.633.933.329.3,201035.122.433.540.437.748.630.028.440.228.1,200937.337.636.351.276.757.625.926.746.538.2,(,),34.937.240.233.3,23.431.723.932.9,21.531.333.725.9,CEIC,2011,6,29,27,2011,12,%,2011109.054.162.031.046.0,201042.235.048.233.512.5,2009-6.423.86

40、.719.967.5,CEIC2.840%2010,2200,5000,1-5,1800,120%,71100806040200,1-5,%2.521.510.50,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,CEIC,2011,6,29,28,2011,6CPI,CPI,3-4%,4.7%,CPI,PPI,72,2011,CPI,%,73,2011,PPI,%,654321,87654321,0,1101,1104,1107,1110,0,1101,1104,1107,1110,2011,GDP,74,8.7%,GDP,%,8.0%,15141312111

41、098765,GDP,CPI（）,1086420-2-4,97,98,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,CEIC2011M1M1,2011,6,29,29,97,98,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,2011,75 M1,%,3833,M1,GDP,1614,28,2318138376,CEIC,121086%,2-3,16,GDP,2,未来物价预期指数（右）,90,1514131211109876,8580757065605550,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,CEI

42、C,77,%,8580757065605550,CPI,121086420-2-4-6,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,CEIC,2011,6,29,30,0703,0706,0709,0712,0803,0806,0809,0812,0903,0906,0909,0912,1003,1006,1009,1012,1103,1106,2011,7816141210864,GDP,CPI,%1086420-2-4,CEIC200720072011,13,2647361659802739,/,0.3%0.9%2.0%0.1%03.3%,%,BP2011,2011,

43、6,29,31,2011,79,%,876543210-1,GDP,CRB,302520151050-5-10-15-20,80,82,84,86,88,90,92,94,96,98,00,02,04,06,08,10,IMF CRB,80959085807570,QE2,74,QE372,CRB,%700650600550500450400350300,0501,0601,0701,0801,0901,1001,1101,PPI,CEIC,CRB,8150403020100-10-20-30-40,CRB,PPI,%1050-5-10,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,0

44、8,09,10,11,CEIC,CRB,2011,6,29,32,200609,200612,200703,200706,200709,200712,200803,200806,200809,200812,200903,200906,200909,200912,201003,201006,201009,201012,201103,2011,821050-5-10,PPI,CPI-,%3210-1-2-3,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,CEIC2008,8311109876548447,00046,50046,00045,50045,00044,50044,0

45、0043,50043,000,CEIC,%24222018161412102422201816141210,200812,200907,201001,201007,201101,CEIC,2011,6,29,33,220,201185,Soozhu-,2010-01-012011-05-29,1.51.00.5,21,1.62(6.02:1),0.0-0.5-1.0201086,0,4.4:110-5-28-0.8(3.6:1),2011,600550400450400350300250200150100500-50-100-150-200,/20241,-121-180,Soozhu-351

46、317260182 200 199 20012257-66-145-177,385313261 289,343,546469419373,1-7 2-7 3-7 4-7 5-7 6-7 7-7 8-7 9-7 10-7 11-7 12-7 1-7 2-7 3-7 4-7 5-787,Soozhu-,2010-01-012011-05-29,8765,2010CPI,10-5-28,4.63:1,2011,214.5%,7.53,1%,6%,10%,CPI,0.5-0.6%,2011,6,29,34,2011,88,20,90,%,864,GDP,CPI,141210,826,0-2-4,70

47、72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10CEIC,420,8986420-2-4,30,2007,%,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,CEIC,2011,6,29,35,2011,9086420-2,%,-4,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,CEIC,9186420-2-4,%,2,7,12,17,22,27,32,37,CEIC,924237322722171272-3-8,%,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,CEIC,2011,6,29,36,(,),20

48、11,14,%,6.054.342.620.484.541.551.191.831.651.541.161.8210.303.462.443.403.680.933.904.891.052.001.331.520.550.30-2.34-0.473.442.4,14.9615.4215.4311.269.7912.8512.9720.5914.1213.2512.2912.666.8413.5115.788.0412.8514.7017.449.7612.5715.1016.9318.5317.7916.2211.6211.8811.8014.2,31.4325.7525.0522.2115.

49、4325.4324.8528.0929.2618.2023.3216.8613.2325.1833.1416.7725.7828.8737.018.8030.8530.8632.7735.2133.6946.3626.1039.8327.8228.5,32.3628.7925.216.0526.9424.7227.6835.1029.0217.6218.2225.89-30.0023.7127.2121.8418.7927.1937.06-7.072.5829.4626.4828.4835.8125.0312.1218.5221.8521.7,CEIC23%20112011,6.03%,201

50、12011,23%25%,2011,5,PMI,2011,6,29,37,9602,9702,9802,9902,0002,0102,0202,0302,0402,0502,0602,0702,0802,0902,1002,1102,2011,2008-2009/,2011PMI,3,1-2,93 GDP,:,:,%,94 PMI,PMI:,PMI:,%,50403020100,GDP:,161412108642,70605040,(10),99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10,0,300501,0601,0701,0801,0901,1001,1101,CE