高盛及以后矿业商品价格预测0116.ppt

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1、,袁飞,2013 年 1 月 16 日高盛 2013 年及以后矿业商品价格预测研究报告,将我们的预测延展至中长期继我们的经济学家延展年度 GDP 和工业产值预测后，我们在本文中对矿业商品供需及价格进行短、中、长期预测。其中包括大宗商品（动力煤、冶金煤、铁矿石）、基本金属和贵金属、矿砂及稀土的 2013-2017 年最新年度价格预测及长期价格预测。我们的全球投资研究采矿股模型就是以这些预测为基础的。2013 年看好铜、钯及冶金煤考虑到预期的生产企业利润率及行业结构、价格涨跌空间，未来 12 个月我们最看好的矿业商品为铜、钯及冶金煤，最看淡铝、镍及锆石（需要注意的是我们对未来 3 个月、6 个月、

2、12 个月商品价格预测没有调整）。就中长期而言，我们最看好钯和冶金煤（特别是优质硬焦煤）的前景。我们预测最显著的变化是将 2013 年锆石价格预测下调至 1,350 美元/吨（原为1,500 美元/吨），将 2014 年铝价预测下调至 2,050 元/吨（原为 2,204 美元/吨）（后者调整的原因在于建立详细的中国供应模型后，对供应增长的信心提升）。,Christian Lelong+61(2)9321-8635 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdMax Layton+44(20)7774-1105 高盛国际Damien Courvalin(212)902-330

3、7 高盛集团杰夫可瑞(212)357-6801 高盛集团+852-2978-6128 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司,最后，我们将 2014 年锌价预测下调至 2,175 美元/吨（原为 2,326 美元/吨），以计入中国产量边际成本低于预期的因素。建立大宗商品长期价格预测：重点关注铜除了推出一系列矿业商品长期价格预测以外，我们还详细阐述了约 6,600 美元/吨（3 美元/磅）的现货铜价预测（按 2013 年美元计算），并由此计算出 2018 年预测为 7,660 美元/吨。我们的长期铜价预测基于我们的“鼓励性价格”和“成本曲线”预测法，并受到过去两年里铜的 5 年远期价格平均接近 8,000 元

4、/吨（3.63 美元/磅）的支撑。投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅,3,6,9,12,16,17,18,21,23,27,30,34,37,40,41,2,2013 年 1 月 16 日Table of ContentsMining commodities overview Bullish copper,palladium and metallurgical coal for 2013Copper Bullish 2013 outlook before move to temporary surplusLong-term cop

5、per prices c.$3/lb or$6,600/t in 2013 dollar terms required to clear the marketAluminium A structurally bearish outlookZinc Tightness still some way offNickel RKEF capacity to keep market under significant pressurePGMs Short-term support for platinum on production cuts but palladium still preferredG

6、old Cycle set to turn on improved macro outlookIron Ore The last two years of super-normal profitsMetallurgical Coal A gradual recovery to cost supportThermal Coal Price upside capped by Chinese supplyMineral Sands A difficult year aheadRare Earths Diverging outlook for Light and Heavy REEsCurrent t

7、rading recommendationsPrice actions,volatilities and forecastsDisclosure Appendix,42,美洲,Prices in this report are as of the close on January 14,2013,unless otherwise noted.The authors would like to thank Eugene King(PGMs),Fawzi Hanano(Copper),Paul Hissey(Gold),JulianZhu(Metals),Yulia Chekunaeva(Meta

8、ls),and Owen Scarrott(Metals)for their contribution to this report.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,2,6,3,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美洲,Mining commodities overview Bullish copper,palladium andmetallurgical coal for 2013In this note we present our mining commodity supply,demand and price forecasts for the short,medium and long t

9、erm,following the extension of our economists annual GDP and IP forecasts.This includes updated annual price forecasts for 2013-2017,as well as long-term prices,for thebulk commodities(thermal coal,metallurgical coals,iron ore),as well as base and preciousmetals,mineral sands,and rare earths(see Exh

10、ibit 1).The forecasts form the basis of our GlobalInvestment Research mining equity models.,Exhibit 1.,Goldman Sachs mining commodity price forecasts(changes are shaded),Long Term,2012A,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E Nominal,AluminiumCopperLeadNickelZincIron Ore1Lump Premium12Hard Coking Coal2S

11、emi-soft CoalPCI3Thermal Coal4Zircon5Rutile5Synthetic RutileIlmeniteChloride Slag(ex cont)Sulphate Slag(ex cont),US$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/t,2023(2021)7959(7970)2062(2049)17536(17581)1950(1953)130(130)8(8)191(191)119(118)136(136)95(95)2275(22

12、75)2400(2400)2200(2200)298(298)1920(1920)1800(1800),2050(2050)8458(8458)2163(2194)16625(17000)2013(2075)144(140)10(10)178(178)114(114)134(134)99(99)1350(1500)1563(1563)1425(1425)283(283)1325(1325)1225(1225),2050(2204)7250(7017)2338(2469)17000(17240)2175(2326)126(126)9(9)195(195)115(115)135(135)100(1

13、00)1575(1575)1700(1700)1525(1525)255(255)1425(1425)1325(1325),21006875236517000220090920511514010016001700160023015001400,22007500236517000220080921011514510016001700160022015001400,23157500236517000220085102101151459216001700160022015001400,25537660255319717255388102061241449216481082973200902782,R

14、are Earth Basket,7,US$/kg,65(65),40(40),40(40),38,38,60,60,GoldPlatinumPalladiumRhodium,US$/ozUS$/ozUS$/ozUS$/oz,167015556461277,(1678)(1560)(646)(1286),181015757811225,(1810)(1544)(781)(1288),175016009251300,(1750)(1581)(925)(1375),1625165010001350,1460175010501400,1295179410501400,120018549271339,

15、8Oil,US$/bbl,120(120),110(110),105(105),100,85,85,85,Notes:(1)CFR China,basis 62%Fe fines;(2)FOB Queensland;(3)We show the spot market price for thermal coal(as opposed to contract),FOB Newcastle;(4)GS hybrid price series for bulk and baggedzircon,FOB Australia;(5)Our prices for rutile and synthetic

16、 rutile represent our best estimates of prices obtainable by major Australian producers,out of contract;(6)Chloride grade,FOB Australia;(7)LYCproduction mix;(8)BrentSources:LME;IRESS;Bloomberg;TEX Report;TZMI;Johnson Matthey;Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Estimates.Source:LME,IRESS,Bloomberg,Plat

17、ts,McCloskey,TZMI,TEX Report,Johnson Matthey,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.Taking account of anticipated producer margins and industry structure,as well as outright priceupside/downside,our most preferred mining commodities on a 12-mo horizon are copper,palladium,and metallurgical coal

18、(see Exhibit 2),and least preferred are aluminium,nickel andzircon(N.B.we have not changed any of our 3-,6-or 12-mo commodity price forecasts).Over themedium to long term our most preferred mining commodities are palladium,metallurgical coal(especially premium hard coking),and mineral sands.The most

19、 significant individual changes to the mining commodity forecasts was the downgrade ofour 2013 zircon forecast to$1,350/t(from$1,500/t),and the lowering of our 2014 aluminium priceforecast to$2,050/t(from$2,204/t),with the latter following the build out of a smelter by smelterChinese supply model an

20、d resulting increased confidence in supply growth.Our 2014 zinc price高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,$,$,4,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美洲forecast was also downgraded to$2,175/t(from$2,326/t),to account for lower-than-anticipatedmarginal Chinese output costs.Exhibit 2.We prefer copper,palladium and metallurgical coalGS mining co

21、mmodity rankings;12-month view,Spot price,GS Price2013E,Demand growth2013/12,Market balance2013,Most preferred,CopperMetallurgical coalPalladium,$,8,017160697,$,8,458178781,3.8%1.6%4.4%,Lower stocks in wks demandbroadly balanceddeficit,Least preferred,AluminiumNickelZircon,$2,063$17,524$1,300,$2,050

22、$16,625$1,350,6.9%4.1%9.8%,surplussurplussurplus,Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.In addition to releasing a number of mining commodity long-term price forecasts,we providedetailed justification of our c.$6,600/t($3/lb)real copper price forecasts(2013 dollar terms).These assumption

23、s kick in in 2018,after being inflated by 3%.p.a,in line with our economistsinflation forecasts.Our long-term copper price is derived from our“incentive price”and“costcurve”forecasting methodologies,and supported by the fact that 5-year copper forwards haveaveraged almost$8,000/t($3.63/lb)over the p

24、ast two years.Base metals Bullish copper(for now),incrementally bearish on aluminium,nickelWe remain bullish on the outlook for copper in 2013,with prices expected to average$8,458/t,though we expect prices to move down to average$7,250/t in 2014 and$6,875/t in 2015.Fromcurrent prices we are cautiou

25、s on the outlook for aluminium over the short,medium and longterm,bearish on nickel(from prices above$17,000/t),and relatively constructive on zinc on amedium/long-term horizon(from prices sub$2,000/t).Gold Cycle set to turn on improved macro outlookWe expect higher gold prices in coming months give

26、n our economists forecast for weak growthearly in 2013 as well as the uncertainty associated with the debt ceiling and potential budgetsequestration.Assuming that the sequester does not take effect on March 1,we expect that thecycle in gold prices will likely turn later this year on improving US gro

27、wth with prices graduallydecreasing over the next five years to stabilize near$1,200/oz.For more details on our recentlyupdated gold framework,please see Precious Metal Outlook:Gold cycle set to turn on improvingUS recovery,December 5,2012.PGMs Structurally bullish on palladium;platinum to be suppor

28、ted only near termSouth African supply issues have seen both platinum and palladium rally in recent weeks.However,we expect palladium will remain tight over the course of 2013-2015 and as suchforecast that it will outperform platinum which is forecast to remain broadly in balance over thesame period

29、.Bulk commodities Bullish thermal coal,iron ore in its final phasesWe believe iron ore will continue to see super-normal prices in 2013(average$144/t),followed by a transitional year in 2014(average$126/t).The iron ore marketis headed for a long period of significant oversupply,in our view,but this

30、isstill two years away(see Global:Mining:Iron age not over:stay bullish and position for nextphase,October 15,2012).Relative to the other bulk commodities,metallurgicalcoal was the worst performer in 2012 with prices down 29%.However,webelieve that current prices are below marginal production costs

31、and see 17%upside potential versus spot relative to our 2H2013 forecast of$185/t forpremium HCC(see Global:Commodities:Metallurgical coal in a world of slower growth,August 21,2012).Finally,we believe that seaborne thermal coal prices will trade within arange of$90-100/t set by:a)the China arbitrage

32、 price on the upside;and b)marginal production高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美洲,costs on the downside(see Mining Commodities:Coal price recovery to continue but upside iscapped,December 10,2012).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,6,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美洲,Copper Bullish 2013 outlook before move to temporary surplusCopper

33、remains our preferred base metal for 2013.Its high exposure to continued strength in latecycle Chinese construction completions(c.50%of Chinese consumption,Exhibit 5),together withan anticipated rebound in underperforming sectors in China(consumer appliances,manufacturing,machinery)and a pick-up in

34、ex-Chinese consumption(US housing,general EM activity)areexpected to underpin copper consumption growth through at least late 2013.While we alsoexpect copper mine supply growth to accelerate to 2.8%yoy in 2013,this is not expected to shiftthe market into a noticeable surplus until 2014.In 2014,furth

35、er acceleration in mine supply growth to 6.7%yoy in the face of a sharpslowdown in Chinese construction completions is expected to move copper into a surplus ofc.450,000t(Exhibits 3 and 4).Weak construction completions are expected to last at least into1H2015,which together with significant supply g

36、rowth should keep copper in surplus to the tuneof 500,000t in 2015(despite an assumed robust ex-Chinese demand recovery).As such,we seeprices falling more than 10%from their 2013E average of$8,458/t to$7,250/t in 2014E and$6,825/t in 2015E(from peak to trough prices may decline more than 20%).With t

37、his outlook westrongly recommend producers consider hedging 2014 positions at prices in the c.$8,000-9,000/trange.While questions about supplys ability to respond to current prices remain,we believe that thecapex boom(Exhibit 7)will temporarily outweigh the impact of ageing mines,trend declines in o

38、regrades,and project delays/cancellations(with the latter mainly affecting supply from 2016onwards).There are major risks to this view,however the base of large existing mines has beenunderperforming so much over the past eight years(output down 1.5mt or 20%;Exhibit 8),it isvery difficult to see thi

39、s deterioration continuing from such a low base,at least over the 2013-2015period.Further,supply growth in 2013 and 2014 is very broad based,and we are eight years intothe price boom(it generally takes c.6-10 years to complete engineering designs and build acopper mine).Finally,we incorporate sizeab

40、le disruption allowances of 5.8%in 2013,6.3%in2014,7.9%in 2015,and 10.8%in 2016 in our model,compared to average disruptions of c.5%inrecent years.By 2016,and beyond,we see copper tightening up once more as mine supply growth dries up i.e.the current environment,together with the forecast period of

41、price weakness in 2014 and2015,is expected to result in project delays,and while demand is expected to continue to grow.Exhibit 3.Global refined copper supply and demand balance000t,2009,2010,2011,2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E,Global mine supply,15960 16185 16101 16335 16796 17928 18884 19276,%chang

42、eIncluding disruption allow.(%),1.60.0,1.40.0,-0.50.0,1.50.0,2.85.8,6.76.3,5.37.9,2.110.8,Global refined supply,18309 19017 19687 19761 20285 21495 22537 23156,%change,0.3,3.9,3.5,0.4,2.7,6.0,4.8,2.7,Global refined consumption,17477 19258 19763 19545 20291 21032 21999 23134,%changeOf which China%cha

43、ngeOf which World ex-China%changeBalanceYear end inventory(weeks)LME Price($/t)LME Price(c/lb),-2.3652329.310954-14.78332.95163234,10.2741613.7118428.1-2413.07543342,2.679417.111823-0.2-772.48824400,-1.181793.011366-3.92163.57959361,3.888338.0114580.8-63.38458384,3.790983.0119334.24634.37250329,4.69

44、5535.0124464.35385.46875312,5.2101266.0130084.5225.27500340,N.B.-our long term copper price forecast is$3/lb,or c.$6,600/t,in 2013 dollar terms.Source:Wood Mackenzie,CRU,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Mar11,Nov05,Nov06,Nov07,Nov08,Nov09,Nov10,Jul11,Nov12,Nov13,Nov14,Mar05

45、,Mar06,Mar07,Mar08,Mar09,Mar10,Mar12,Mar13,Mar14,Nov11,Jul05,Jul06,Jul07,Jul08,Jul09,Jul10,Jul12,Jul13,Jul14,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,-4.0,7,2013 年 1 月 16 日Exhibit 4.Refined copper balance changes period ofsurplus to last c.2 years,but not here yetWe

46、eks consumption,美洲Exhibit 5.Chinese demand growth slowdown in face ofstronger supply growth may dent copper pricesin 2014Percent change yoy,3-mo moving average(lhs),$/t$2013 terms(rhs),4.03.02.01.0,45%40%35%30%25%20%,QEII/ex-China PMIpick up,Europecrisis,11000105001000095009000850080007500,15%,7000,

47、0.0-1.0-2.0-3.02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E2013E 2014E2015E2016ECopper balance in wks consumptionSource:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.Exhibit 6.Copper demand growth by country/regionPercent yoy growth12%10%8%6%,10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%China Copper Consump

48、tion IndicatorChina Copper Consumption Indicator forecast(base case)Copper mine supplyReal copper price(rhs)Source:LME,Reuters,ICSG,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Researchestimates.Exhibit 7.Copper mining capex booming$bn3025,65006000550050004500400035003000,4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%-12%,20151050,+c.500%1992

49、 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Other,Brazil,Russia,India,China,Western Europe,Japan,US,World,Expansionary CAPEX,Source:Wood Mackenzie,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Source:Wood Mackenzie,Goldman Sachs G

50、lobal ECS Research.,8,2013 年 1 月 16 日Exhibit 8.together with a stabilisation in output from thebase of large mines=mine supply growth pickup000t,including disruption allowance,美洲Exhibit 9.Copper mine supply growth by country/regionPercent yoy growth,including disruption allowance,1400013000120001100