《货币、银行和金融市场经济学》第八版ppt课件.ppt

《《货币、银行和金融市场经济学》第八版ppt课件.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《《货币、银行和金融市场经济学》第八版ppt课件.ppt（248页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。

1、Chapter 01,Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets?,Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets,To examine how financial markets such as bond and stock markets workTo examine how financial institutions such as banks workTo examine the role of money in the economy,Part1 Introduction,Chap1

2、 Why Study Money, Banking and Financial Markets?Chap2 An overviews of the Financial SystemChap3 What is Money?,Part2 Financial Markets and Financial Institutions,Chap4 Understanding Interest RatesChap5 The Behavior of Interest RatesChap6 Banking,FIGURE 1 Interest Rates on Selected Bonds, 19502008,So

3、urces: Federal Reserve Bulletin; www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H15/data.htm.,Part3 Central Banking and the Conduct of Monetary Policy,Chap7 Structure of Central banks Chap8 Multiple Deposit Creation and the Money Supply ProcessChap9 Determinants of the Money SupplyChap10 Tools of Monetary PolicyCh

4、ap11 What should central Banks Do? Monetary Policy Goals, Strategy and Tactics,Part4 Money Theory,Chap12 The Demand for MoneyChap13 Aggregate Demand and Supply AnalysisChap14 Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy: The EvidenceChap15 Money and Inflation,FIGURE 4 Aggregate Price Level and the Mon

5、ey Supply in the United States, 19502008,Sources: www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/gdp/gdpdef; www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist10.txt.,Money and Inflation,The aggregate price level is the average price of goods and services in an economyA continual rise in the price level (inflation) affects

6、 all economic playersData shows a connection between the money supply and the price level,FIGURE 5 Average Inflation Rate Versus Average Rate of Money Growth for Selected Countries, 19972007,Source: International Financial Statistics.,FIGURE 6 Money Growth (M2 Annual Rate) and Interest Rates (Long-T

7、erm U.S. Treasury Bonds), 19502008,Sources: Federal Reserve Bulletin, p. A4, Table 1.10; www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.txt.,Money and Interest Rates,Interest rates are the price of moneyPrior to 1980, the rate of money growth and the interest rate on long-term Treasury bonds were c

8、losely tiedSince then, the relationship is less clear but the rate of money growth is still an important determinant of interest rates,FIGURE 3 Money Growth (M2 Annual Rate) and the Business Cycle in the United States, 19502008,Note: Shaded areas represent recessions.Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin

9、, p. A4, Table 1.10; www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.txt.,How We Will Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets,A simplified approach to the demand for assetsThe concept of equilibriumBasic supply and demand to explain behavior in financial marketsThe search for profitsAn approach

10、to financial structure based on transaction costs and asymmetric informationAggregate supply and demand analysis,References,米什金，货币金融学（中文）（8)，清华大学出版社，2009米什金，货币金融学（中文）（9)，人民大学出版社，2011易纲、吴有昌，货币银行学，上海人民出版社，1999年 武康平， 货币银行学教程清华大学出版社2006年黄达，货币银行学， 中国人民大学出版社2000年戴国强，货币银行学， 上海财经大学出版社，2003 托马斯，货币，银行业和金融市场机械

11、工业出版社2008R.哈里斯著，梁小民译：货币理论，中国金融出版社，北京，1989,Chapter 3,What Is Money?,Meaning of Money（货币）,What is it?Money (or the “money supply”): anything that is generally accepted in payment for goods or services or in the repayment of debts.,Meaning of Money,Money (a stock concept) is different from:Currency: co

12、nsist of dollar bills（钞票） and coins（硬币）, currency is one type of money. Wealth（财富）: the total collection of pieces of property that serve to store valueIncome（收入）: flow of earnings per unit of time (a flow concept),Functions of Money,Medium of Exchange（交易媒价）: Eliminates the trouble of finding a doub

13、le coincidence of needs (reduces transaction costs)Promotes specializationA medium of exchange mustbe easily standardizedbe widely acceptedbe divisiblebe easy to carrynot deteriorate quickly,Functions of Money,Unit of Account（计算单位）: used to measure value in the economyreduces transaction costsStore

14、of Value（价值尺度）: used to save purchasing power over time.other assets also serve this function Money is the most liquid of all assets but loses value during inflation,Evolution of the Payments System（支付制度的演变）,Commodity Money（商品货币）: valuable, easily standardized and divisible commodities (e.g. preciou

15、s metals, cigarettes).Fiat Money（不兑现纸币）: paper money decreed by governments as legal tender（法定货币）.,Evolution of the Payments System,Checks（支票）: an instruction to your bank to transfer money from your accountElectronic Payment (电子支付，e.g. online bill pay).E-Money (electronic money，电子货币):Debit cardStor

16、ed-value card (smart card)E-cash,Measuring Money,How do we measure money? Which particular assets can be called “money”?Construct monetary aggregates using the concept of liquidity:M1 (most liquid assets) = currency（通货） + travelers checks（旅行支票） + demand deposits （活期存款）+ other checkable deposits（其他支票

17、存款）.,Measuring Money,M2 (adds to M1 other assets that are not so liquid) = M1 + small denomination time deposits（小面额定期存款） + savings deposits and money market deposit accounts （储蓄存款和货币市场存款账户）+ money market mutual fund shares（retail）（货币市场互助基金份额（非机构持有）.,Table 1 Measures of the Monetary Aggregates,Monet

18、ary Aggregates,存款的种类：*活期存款：这种存款，支用时须使用银行规定的支票，又称为支票存款。企业、个人、政府机关、金融机构都能在银行开立活期存款账户。定期存款：指那些具有确定的到期期限才准提取的存款。储蓄存款：这主要是针对居民个人积蓄货币之需所开办的一种存款业务。一般不能据此签发支票，支用时只能提取现金或先转入存户的活期存款账户。它可以进一步分为活期和定期两大类。,中国的货币计量： M0 = 流通中现金 M1 = M0 + 企事业单位活期存款 M2 = M1 + 企事业单位定期存款+居民储蓄存款 + 证券公司客户保证金 + 其他存款,M1 vs. M2,Does it matt

19、er which measure of money is considered?M1 and M2 can move in different directions in the short run (see figure). Conclusion: the choice of monetary aggregate is important for policymakers.,FIGURE 1 Growth Rates of the M1 and M2 Aggregates, 19602008,Sources: Federal Reserve Bulletin, p. A4, Table 1.

20、10, various issues; Citibase databank; www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.txt.,How Reliable are the Money Data?,Revisions are issued because:Small depository institutions report infrequentlyAdjustments must be made for seasonal variationWe probably should not pay much attention to short

21、-run movements in the money supply numbers, but should be concerned only with longer-run movements,Table 2 Growth Rate of M2: Initial and Revised Series, 2008 (percent, compounded annual rate),19912007年M2与GDP增长率,表1 美英德法四国批发物价指数,指数1913=100数据来源：马君潞：国际货币制度研究， 中国财政经济出版社，1995。,In 1944, there was a meetin

22、g of 44 nations at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The meeting was called the Bretton Woods Conference, officially known as the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference.An international agreement, called Bretton Woods Agreement, was reached to govern monetary policy among nationsThe purpose wa

23、s to design a postwar international monetary system.,Bretton Woods System:1945-1972,Under the Bretton Woods System, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce and other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar.Each country was responsible for maintaining its exchange rate within 1% of the

24、adopted par value by buying or selling foreign reserves as necessary.The Bretton Woods System was a dollar-based gold exchange standard.,Bretton Woods System:1945-1972,世界出口贸易年平均增长率， 19481976年为7.7%， 19131938年，平均每年只增长0.7%。,On one hand, performing the role of the worlds reserve currency, the US dollar

25、should keep its value stable.On the other hand, the international economy needed dollars for liquidity purposes and to satisfy demand for reserve assets. This forced US to run consistently large current account deficits.Triffin argued that such persistent deficits would eventually put pressure on th

26、e US dollar and lead to the demise of the Bretton Woods system of international exchange.,Triffin Dilemma,Chapter 4,Understanding Interest Rates,Discounting the Future( ),Present Value（现值）,Definition （定义）: A dollar paid to you one year from now is less valuable than a dollar paid to you today,Time L

27、ine,$100,$110,Year,0,1,PV,$100,2,$121,n,Cannot directly compare payments scheduled in different points in the time line,$100*(1+i)n,$100,$100,$100,Simple Present Value Formula（简单的现值公式）,Time Line,$100,$100,Year,0,1,PV,100,2,$100,$100,n,100/(1+i),100/(1+i)2,100/(1+i)n,Cannot directly compare payments

28、scheduled in different points in the time line,Four Types of Credit Market Instruments,Simple Loan（简易贷款）:The lender provides the borrower with an amount of money, which must be repaid to the lender at the maturity date along with an additional payment for the interest.,Fixed-Payment Loan（定期定额贷款）:Thi

29、s type of loan has the same cash flow throughout the life of the loan.,Coupon Bond（息票债券）:A coupon bond pays the owner of the bond a fixed interest rate (coupon payment) every year until the maturity date, when a specified final amount is paid.,Four Types of Credit Market Instruments,Discount Bond（贴现

30、发行债券）:A discount bond is bought at a price below its face value (at a discount), and the face value is repaid at the maturity date.,Yield to Maturity(到期收益率),Definition（定义）：The interest rate that equates the present value of cash flow payments received from a debt instrument（未来现金流的现值） with its value

31、today（今天的价值）,代表债券价格,代表第t期债券的利息,代表债券的期数,代表债券本金,代表到期收益率,The formula of Yield to Maturity(到期收益率的公式),Table 1 Yields to Maturity on a 10%-Coupon-Rate Bond Maturing in Ten Years(Face Value = $1,000),When the coupon bond is priced at its face value, the yield to maturity equals the coupon rateThe price of

32、a coupon bond and the yield to maturity are negatively relatedThe yield to maturity is greater than the coupon rate when the bond price is below its face value,Table 1 Yields to Maturity on a 10%-Coupon-Rate Bond Maturing in Ten Years(Face Value = $1,000),When the coupon bond is priced at its face v

33、alue, the yield to maturity equals the coupon rate,The price of a coupon bond and the yield to maturity are negatively related,The yield to maturity is greater than the coupon rate when the bond price is below its face value,Consol(统一公债) or Perpetuity（永久债券）,Definition: A bond with no maturity date t

34、hat does not repay principal but pays fixed coupon payments forever,For coupon bonds, this equation gives the current yield, an easy to calculate approximation to the yield to maturity,Discount Bond（贴现发行债券）,1-57,Other Measures of Interest Rates,1-58,Current Yield（当期收益率）,、 C ic = P Two Characteristic

35、sIs better approximation to yield to maturity, nearer price is to par and longer is maturity of bondChange in current yield always signals change in same direction as yield to maturity,1-59,(F P) 360idb = x F (number of days to maturity)One year bill, P = $900, F = $1000,$1000 $900 360idb = x = 0.09

36、9 = 9.9% $1000 365Two CharacteristicsUnderstates yield to maturity; longer the maturity, greater is understatementChange in discount yield always signals change in same direction as yield to maturity,Yield on a Discount Basis（贴现收益率）, 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved,1-60,Bond Page of

37、 the Newspaper,Rate of Return（回报率）,Definiton(定义): the rate of return is defined as the payments to the owner plus the change in its value.,Rate of Return and Interest Rates,The return equals the yield to maturity only if the holding period equals the time to maturityA rise in interest rates is assoc

38、iated with a fall in bond prices, resulting in a capital loss if time to maturity is longer than the holding periodThe more distant a bonds maturity, the greater the size of the percentage price change associated with an interest-rate change,Rate of Return and Interest Rates (contd),The more distant

39、 a bonds maturity, the lower the rate of return the occurs as a result of an increase in the interest rateEven if a bond has a substantial initial interest rate, its return can be negative if interest rates rise,Table 2 One-Year Returns on Different-Maturity 10%-Coupon-Rate Bonds When Interest Rates

40、 Rise from 10% to 20%,Interest-Rate Risk,Prices and returns for long-term bonds are more volatile than those for shorter-term bondsThere is no interest-rate risk for any bond whose time to maturity matches the holding period,Real and Nominal Interest Rates,Nominal interest rate makes no allowance fo

41、r inflationReal interest rate is adjusted for changes in price level so it more accurately reflects the cost of borrowingEx ante real interest rate is adjusted for expected changes in the price levelEx post real interest rate is adjusted for actual changes in the price level,Fisher Equation,The Rela

42、tionship between Nominal interest rate and Real interest rate:,FIGURE 1 Real and Nominal Interest Rates (Three-Month Treasury Bill), 19532008,Sources: Nominal rates from www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H15. The real rate is constructed using the procedure outlined in Frederic S. Mishkin, “The Real I

43、nterest Rate: An Empirical Investigation,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 15 (1981): 151200. This procedure involves estimating expected inflation as a function of past interest rates, inflation, and time trends and then subtracting the expected inflation measure from the nomi

44、nal interest rate.,Chapter 5,The Behavior of Interest Rates,Determining the Quantity Demanded of an Asset,Wealth: the total resources owned by the individual, including all assetsExpected Return: the return expected over the next period on one asset relative to alternative assetsRisk: the degree of

45、uncertainty associated with the return on one asset relative to alternative assetsLiquidity: the ease and speed with which an asset can be turned into cash relative to alternative assets,Theory of Asset Demand,Holding all other factors constant:The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related

46、 to wealthThe quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its expected return relative to alternative assetsThe quantity demanded of an asset is negatively related to the risk of its returns relative to alternative assetsThe quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its liqui

47、dity relative to alternative assets,Summary Table 1 Response of the Quantity of an Asset Demanded to Changes in Wealth, Expected Returns, Risk, and Liquidity,Supply and Demand for Bonds,At lower prices (higher interest rates), ceteris paribus, the quantity demanded of bonds is higher: an inverse（相反的

48、，负向的） relationshipAt lower prices (higher interest rates), ceteris paribus, the quantity supplied of bonds is lower: a positive relationship,FIGURE 1 Supply and Demand for Bonds,Market Equilibrium,Occurs when the amount that people are willing to buy (demand) equals the amount that people are willin

49、g to sell (supply) at a given priceBd = Bs defines the equilibrium (or market clearing) price and interest rate. When Bd Bs , there is excess demand, price will rise and interest rate will fallWhen Bd Bs , there is excess supply, price will fall and interest rate will rise,Shifts in the Demand for B

50、onds,Wealth: in an expansion with growing wealth, the demand curve for bonds shifts to the right Expected Returns: higher expected interest rates in the future lower the expected return for long-term bonds, shifting the demand curve to the leftExpected Inflation: an increase in the expected rate of