全球发展中心-世界银行教育贷款的演变：1998-2022（英）-2024.3_市场营销策划_2024.docx

CGDCENTERFOPG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENTTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurAbstractIn2011,theWorldBank'sneweducationstrategystressedtheneedtoshiftfocusfromschooling(accessorenrollment)tolearning(testscores),andspecicallytowardsfoundationalskillsacquiredinprimaryschool.Butthisshiftisnotalwayseasytoseeintheactuallendingdata.Codingnewdetailson25yearsofWorldBankeducationloansandgrants,wefindadeclineintheshareoffinancingforprimaryschooloverthewholeperiod,andnoapparentincreaseintheshareofprojectstargeting“quality"or"learning"asopposedto“access"since2011.Incontrast,therehasbeengradualbutsteadygrowthinprojectstargetingearlychildhoodeducation.Thesepattternsappeartoreflectbothsupplyanddemandsidefactors.Onthedemandside,asprimaryenrollmentincreases,countriesshifttheirborrowingtowardearlychildhoodeducation.Onthesupplyside,theWorldBankissignificantlybetteratdeliveringearly-childhoodeducationprogramscomparedtoprojectsfocusedonraisingtestscores,asjudgedbyindependentevaluationscores.EvidenceonthelongtermlearninggainsfrompreschoolsuggestthismaybeamorefeasiblestrategyfortheWorldBanktoachieveitsgoals.WORKINGPAPER685MARCH2024TheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurCenterforGlobalDevelopmentBiniamBedassoandJustinSandefur.2024.uTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation：1998-20227CGDWorkingPaper68E.Washington,DC:CenterfbrGlobalDevelopment.https:/www.cgdev.org/publication/evolution-world-bank-lending-educatton-1998-2022WegratefullyacknowledgeexcellentresearchassistancefromOluwakemiOyewande.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentisgratefulforcontributionsfromtheBill&MelindaGatesFoundationinsupportofthisvvork.CENTERFORG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENT20551.Street,NWFifthFloorWashington,DC200361AbbeyGardensGreatCollegeStreet1.ondonSWlP3SEwww.cgdev.orgCenterforGlobalDevelopment.2024.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentworkstoreduceglobalpovertyandimprovelivesthroughinnovativeeconomicresearchthatdrivesbetterpolicyandpracticebytheworldzstopdecisionmakers.UseanddisseminationofthisWorkingPaperisencouraged;however,reproducedcopiesmaynotbeusedforcommercialpurposes.FurtherusageispermittedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommerdaI4.0International1.icense.TheviewsexpressedinCGDWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtotheboardofdirectors,fundersoftheCenterforGlobalDevelopment,ortheauthors*respectiveorganizations.Contents1. Introduction12. Aquartercenturyofexpansionandoscillatingpriorities43. Reachinghigheroryounge11whatdocountriesborrowforastheyapproachuniversalprimaryenrollment?94. Betteratexpandingaccessforyoungerchildrenthanimprovinglearningforolderones125. Acloserlookatspecificinvestmentsinearlychildhoodeducationandlearningoutcomesprojects176. Whatisinaprojectmaydependonwhohaspreparedit197. Conclusion21References23Appendix24Appendix 1: Methodologicalnote24Appendix 2: Cross-laggedpanelanalysis28Appendix 3: Fullregressionresults(section4)29Figures1. WorldBank'seducationfinancingexpandedsignificantlyoverthepasttwoandahalfdecades42. Theshareoffinancingforprimaryeducationhasdeclinedwhilethesharesofothersub-sectorshavefluctuated53. ExpandingaccesshasbeenthedominantobjectiveofWorldBank'seducationfinancingbetween1998and202264. Theshareofprojectstargeting"quality"or"learning"asopposedto"access”showsnocleartrendoverthemediumterm75. Explicitfocusonlearningoutcomesoftenimpliesmoreprojectactivitiesinvolvingassessments,teachersandcurriculum86. Interventionstargetedatunderrepresentedgroupsandwomenincreaseddramaticallywhileactivitiesenhancingwellbeinginschoolstagnated97. Projectstargetingoutcomesgenerallyreceivelowerperformancescoresthanprojectstargetingoutputs138. Projectswithanexplicitfocusonlearningoutcomesaremostlikelytoberatedasunsuccessful149. ECEprojectsaretheonlycategorywithasignificantlyhigherprobabilityofsuccessthanprimaryeducationprojects1610. TeachersandinclusiondominatethelistofmostcommonactivitiesfinancedthroughECEprojects1811. Assessmentsandcurriculumreformareprominentamongactivitiesfinancedthroughprojectstargetinglearningoutcomes19Tables1. ExpandingaccesstoprimaryschoolingisassociatedwithadeclineinborrowingforprimaryeducationandanincreaseinborrowingforECEandsecondaryeducation102. IdentityoftheWorldBankTask-Team1.eadercanexplainthecompositionofeducationprojectsaswellorbetterthanthecountrytheprojectsarelocatedin20A1.Choiceofprojectsubsectorasafunctionpreviouseducationprojectcyclesinthesamecountry28A2.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonorderedprobitregressionsusing4-scaleoutcomerating)29A3.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)30A4.Projectperformancebysubsector(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)311. IntroductionOverthepasttwodecades,asschoolenrollmentsandeducationexpendituresinthedevelopingworldhavesteadilyincreased,therelativeimportanceofWorldBanklendingforeducationhasdeclined,atleastindollarterms.Theinstitution'seducationportfoliogrewroughlyfour-foldfrom1999to2022,totaling$73billioninsupportforeducationprojectsin160countriesand25regionalstates(WorldBank,2023).Butthishasnotkeptpacewithpublicspendingoneducationinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,whichgrewaboutseven-foldoverthesameperiod.AccordingtotheWorldBank'sWorldDevelopmentIndicators,governmentexpenditureoneducationasapercentageofGDPinalllow-andmiddle-incomecountrieswas3.3percentin1999and3.6percentin2022,whiletotalGDPforthesamecountriesincreasedfrom$6trilliontojustabove$39trillion.Thatimpliesgrowthofpublicspendingoneducationfromabout$200billiontoaround$1,4trillion.AstheBank'srelativefinancialheftineducationhasdeclined,itseducationpolicyagendahasevolvedfromprovidingbasicmaterialinputstoeducationsystemstoimprovinglearningoutcomesthroughambitioussystemicreforms(MundyandVerger,2015).ThemostrecenteducationstrategyoftheBank,adoptedin2011,emphasizestheneedtoshiftfocusfromschoolingtolearning.Thestrategyaimstopromotelearning,bothinandoutofschool,frompreschoolthroughthelabormarket(WorldBank,2011).Incomparison,thepreviousstrategy,adoptedin1999,prioritizedinclusiveaccesstobasiceducationandimprovingqualitythroughearlyinterventions,innovativedeliveryandsystemreform(WorldBank,1999).TheEducationSectorStrategyUpdatein2005retainedthe1999prioritiesbutsoughttoembedtheminbroadereconomy-widecontextwithexplicitfocusonresults-orientation(WorldBank,2005).Thenotionofthe"learningcrisis,'asthekeyelementoftheBank,scentralnarrativeoneducationhasbeenstrengthenedduetothefocusitreceivedinthe2018WorldDevelopmentReport(WorldBank,2018).TheevolutionoftheglobaldiscourseineducationinthepastfewdecadesshowsthattheBank'sinfluenceasaninternationalagenda-setteremanatesfromitsuniqueroleasalenderandknowledgebroker(Edwardsetal.,2023).DoesWorldBanklendingforeducationmatchthisrhetoricalshiftinpolicypriorities?Hastheallocationofbanknanceacrosssub-sectorsandactivitieswithineducationevolvedinlinewiththemuchcelebratedpivotfrom“schooling"to"learning"?Inthispaper,weattempttoanalyzevariousaspectsoftheevolutionofWorldBankfinancingforeducationoverthepasttwoandahalfdecadesagainstthebackdropoftheshiftinstrategyaswellasbroadernarrative.WeconstructanoveldatasetonthethematicfocusofWorldBankeducationprojectsbycodingtheProjectDevelopmentObjectives(PDOs)of815projectsimplementedbetween1998and2022.Additionally,alargesubsetofthePDOsweremappedtotheactualprojectactivities,offeringinsightsintothepracticalmanifestationsoftheobjectivesintheformofinvestmentsontheground.OurdataspanstheyearsduringwhichtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)wereadoptedandsubsequentlyevolvedintotheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),whichsignificantlyenhancedtheBank'sglobalroleinfundinghumandevelopmentinitiatives.Inabsoluteterms,thedatashowsthatthepasttwodecadeswerecharacterizedbyasteadyincreaseinWorldBankfinancingOfeducationprojects,mirroringthesignicantexpansioninoverallWorldBanklending.Intermsofsectoralcomposition,theshareofnancingforprimaryeducationdeclinedbyaroundone-thirdbetween1998and2022.Themostsubstantialgrowthwasintheshareofprojectsfocusedonearlychildhoodeducation(ECE),whichincreasedbyafactorof2.5timesbetweenthefirstandlastWorldBankeducationstrategies(i.e.,1998-2005vs2011-2022).Asforthematicobjectives,expandingaccesstoeducationhasremainedthedominantfocus,accountingforanaverageof25.6percentofWorldBankeducationlendingunderthemostrecentstrategy,despiteadeclinefromashareof29.3percentpriortothe2005strategy.Otherobjectives,indecreasingorderoftheirportfoliosharearequality,governance,attainment,learningoutcomesandemployability.Notably,theaverageshareofprojectstargeting"learningoutcomes“hasdeclinedaftertheadoptionofthem1.earningforAI,strategyin2011incontrasttoasignicantincreaseinthepreviousperiod.Intermsofequityandwellbeing,interventionstargetedatunderrepresentedgroupsandwomenincreaseddramaticallywhileactivitiesenhancingoverallwellbeinginschoolstagnated.OneofthedriversbehindthepersistenceofaccessasadominantobjectiveforWorldBankeducationprojectsisthetendencyofcountriestoshiftborrowingtoexpandingaccessinothersubsectorsasprimaryenrolmentincreases.BorrowingcountriesthathavealreadyattainedsignificantincreasesinprimaryenrolmentseemtoprioritizeexpandingECEastheytapsubsequentWorldBankfinancing.Apartfromthesequencingchoicesofborrowingcountries,theperformanceofdifferenttypesofeducationprojectsasdeterminedbytheIndependentEvaluationGroupmayhaveinfluencedthetrendsintheallocationoffinancing.Particularly,therelativelylowscoresprojectstargetedatlearningoutcomesreceiveduponcompletionmayhavecontributedtoashiftinsubsequentlendingtowardsotherobjectives.Similarly,therelativelyhighscoresOfECEprojectscouldbepartofthereasonECEhasseenthehighestrateofexpansioninfinancingovertheperiodcoveredbyourdata.Areviewofthemainfactorsinfluencingdifferentialratingsamongvariousprojecttypes,asoutlinedinevaluationdocuments,revealsapattern:substantiatingtheattainmentoflearningoutcomestargetsprovestypicallymoredifficultthanachievingaccesstargetsoverthestandardprojectlifespan.TheWorldBank,sstatedobjectivesforaprojectarenotmeaninglesslabels.Wefindasignificantcorrelationbetweenthetypeofobjectiveandtheactivitiesfinancedbytheproject.Projectswithanexplicitfocusonlearningoutcomesofteninvolvemoreactivitiesrelatedtoassessmentsandcurriculumthanprojectsfocusingonaccess.Conversely,projectsaimedatattainmentorlearningoutcomesarelesslikelytoincludeactivitiesfocusedonequityandinclusion.However,thechoiceofprojectactivitiesalsoappeartobeinfluencedbytheidentityoftheWorldBankstaffmemberresponsibleforprojectpreparation.Wefindthattheidentityofthe*,TaskTeam1.eader,explainstheselectionofactivitiesrelatedto,4equityandinclusion*',*,curriculu11andtextbooks",and"managementinformationanddata*'aswellorbetterthanthecountrytheprojectsarelocatedin.Overall,themainresultsofthepaperrevealthattheWorldBank'sfinancingportfolioismorecomplexthanthedominantnarrativesmightsuggest.Thetrendsinthecompositionofprojectsarelikelytohavebeenshapedbytheinteractionbetweensupplyanddemandforces.ThefindingsregardingprojectsaimedatimprovinglearningoutcomespointtotheneedfortheBanktoreevaluatehowitslendingoperationscouldeffectivelysupportitsdeclaredmissionofcombatinglearningpoverty.ThereseemstobesignificantmomentumfortheBanktobuildonitssuccessineffectivelydeliveringECEprojectsandrespondtothegrowingdemandforECEinvestmentfromborrowingcountries.ECEinvestmentstypicallyentailboostingearlyaccesstoeducationandstimulation,ultimatelycreatingaconduciveenvironmenttoimprovelearningoutcomesinthefuture,inthiscontext,ECErepresentsanareawheretheWorldBankhasthepotentialtosignificantlyenhanceitsimpactonlong-termeducationaloutcomesbyharnessingitsexistingcapabilitiesindeliveringaccessprojects.Onelimitationtoouranalysisisthatitisdone,bynecessity,attheprojectlevel,andeachprojectspansmultipleobjectivesandactivities.Wecannotascribeaspecificdollarvaluetoeachobjectiveinprojectswithdiversegoals.Consequently,eachobjectiveindicatedinthePDOisassignedanequalshareofthemonetaryallocationfortheprojectfromtheWorldBankincalculatingthepercentageshareofobjectivesinagivenyear.Similarly,theIEGratingsareapplicabletoallobjectiveswithintheproject,makingitchallengingtodirectlymeasuretheperformanceofaparticularobjective.Therefore,theperformanceonaparticularobjectiveisonlymeasuredindirectlyinrelationtotheperformanceofotherprojectsthatdonotincludethatobjective.furthercaveatisthattheactivitiesdatabaseweusedinconjunctionwiththePDOdatasetdoesnotextendbeyond2017,leavingoutrecentyearsinwhichsignificantmovementsinthecompositionofobjectivestookplace.Theremainderofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2providesanoverviewofthekeytrendsandpatternsthathavecharacterizedWorldBank'sfinancingforeducationoverthepast25years.Section3offersexplanationsfortheobservedtrends,focusingonthedemand-sideoftheeducationfinancingdecision.Sections4and5lookatthesupply-side,analyzingwhatkindsofprojectstheWorldBankdeemsitselftobegoodandbadatexecuting.Section6examinesadifferentaspectofthesupplyside,i.e.,howmuchindividualWorldBankstaffdeterminethetypeofeducationprojectscountriesborrowfor.Section7concludes.2. AquartercenturyofexpansionandoscillatingprioritiesThemethodologyusedforconstructingthedatasetforthisanalysisispresentedinAppendix1.Thepast25yearshaveseensignificantincreasesintheallocationofWorldBankfinancingforeducation.ThistrendhasmirroredtheoverallexpansioninWorldBanklendinginallsectorsoverthesameperiod(seeFigure1).Thenumberofapprovededucationprojectshasdoubledduringthisperiod,whilethetotalfinancingvaluehasquadrupled.Thisindicatesasubstantialincreaseintheaveragecommitmentperproject.Althoughamixofvariouslendinginstrumentshavebeenusedovertheyears,educationfinancinghasbeendominatedbyspecificinvestmentlendingwhichisusuallytargetedatprojectsofmedium-tolong-termhorizon.AstheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsperiod(i.e.2000-2015)coincideswiththeyearscoveredbyourreview,therampingupofeducationlendingcouldbepartlyattributedtotheglobaldrivetohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesachievetheeducationgoals.800FIGURE1.WorldBank,seducationfinancingexpandedsignificantlyoverthepasttwoandahalfdecades6(XX)86O1.ZEqG9N86O1.ZETrin9ZeO6O1.1.AllWBcommitments(3-yearma),SmillionEducationprojectcommitment(3-yearma),SmilllonPrimaryeducationprojectshaveaccountedforthelargestshareofnancingovertheentireperiod.However,Figure2showsthattherelativeshareofprimaryeducationhasdeclinedsignificantly,byroughlyaquarterbetweentheearliestandthelatestsectorstrategyperiodsduringthepast25years.Theshareofsecondaryeducation,whichtypicallyrepresentsthesecondmostpopularareaofinvestment,experiencedaninitialrise,approachinglevelssimilartoprimaryeducation.However,itgraduallydeclinedthereafter.ThetwoareasthathavewitnessedarelativelyconsistentincreaseintheshareofWorldBanknancingsincetheearly2000sareECEand"Othereducation”(includingpublicadministration).Particularly,theshareofECEintheedu