2024年亚太区私募股权市场报告_市场营销策划_2024年市场报告-3月第4周_【2024研报】重点.docx

Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024StayingthecourseamidupheavalRAlN&COMPANY©AuthorsandacknowledgmentsThisreportwaspreparedby：Sebastien1.amy,aBain&CompanypartnerbasedinTokyoandcoleaderofthefrm,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquitypractice；1.achlanMcMurdo,apartnerbasedinMelbourneandamemberofBain,sAustraliaPrivateEquitypractice；andElsaSit,practicevicepresidentwithBain,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquitypractice.TheauthorswishtothankKikiYang,coleaderofBain,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquitypractice,forheroverallguidance；WonpyoChoi,KukhyoeKoo,BenMacTiernan,AlexBoulton,andDavidZehnerfortheirperspectivesonimprovingportfolioexitvalue；BrendaRaineyandJohanneDessardfortheirperspectivesonassetclassdiversification；UsmanAkhtar,AlexBoulton,AndreaCampagnoli,Meng-Yang1.ee,MaiNguyen,HaoZhou,WonpyoChoi,SungwonYoon,SriwatsanKrishnan,APrabhavKashyap,AdityaMuralidhar,JamesViles,BenMacTiernan,andJimVerbeetenfortheirinputonregionaldynamics；JoyMcConnochieandOwainPalmerfortheircontributions；EchoHan,DhawalPandey,SanyamSharma,ShilpiBansal,andtheteamfromtheBainCapabilityNetwork(IraKaur,MunishBasrar,VikasSharma,DeepakBhawani,ShaliniDe,SiddhantBanerjee,SaloniSingh,andKabirSinghKochar)fortheiranalyticsupportandresearchassistance；andGailEdmondsonforhereditorialsupport.WearegratefultoPreqinandAsiaVentureCapitalJournal(AVCJ)forthevaluabledatatheyprovidedandfortheirresponsiveness.Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeofinterviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBainandmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company'sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.Copyright©2024Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024ContentsAsia-PacificPrivateEquity:Investorspulledback,anddealactivityplunged2Whathappenedin2023?5Dealsallbutstopped5Spotlightonenergyandnaturalresources9Competitionshrinks11Multiplesplunge13Exitsdropagain14Fund-raisingplummets16Returnsremainattractive21Improvingportfolioexitvalue24Findingagoodfit26Asmartapproachtoassetclassdiversification29Privatecreditandinfrastructure30Aimtooutperform33Marketdefinition36Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Asia-PacificPrivateEquity:Investorspulledback,anddealactivityplunged Thenumberofprivateequitydealsandexitsfellsharplyinmostmarketsamidongoinguncertainty. Asia-PacificPEfundsraisedjust$100billionin2023,thelowestlevelinadecade. Facedwithatoughmarket,GPsdevelopednewstrategiestofindbuyersandimproveexitvalue. AlternativeassetclassessuchasinfrastructureandprivatecreditofferagrowthopportunityforAsia-Pacific-focusedfunds.Forthesecondyearinarow,uncertaintyhoveredoverAsia-Pacificprivateequity(PE)markets.Manyinvestorsputdealmakingonholdin2023,worriedaboutslowingeconomicgrowthacrossmuchoftheregion,persistentlyhighinterestratesthatraisethecostofPEdebt,andvolatilepublicstockmarkets.Ongoinggeopoliticaltensionsandglobalconflictsreinforcedinvestors*concerns.Unabletofathomwhatwasahead,fundsretrenchedtowaitoutthestorm.Theunsettlingmixofmacroeconomicconditionswasinvestors,keyconcern,accordingtoBain,s2024Asia-PacificPrivateEquitysurvey.Dealvaluefellto$147billion,extendingthedealmakingslumpthatbeganin2022.Exitsplunged,andfundaisingdeclinedtoitslowestlevelin10years(seeFigure1).InvestorsremainedespeciallycautiousofbuyingcompaniesinGreaterChina,andamurkyeconomicoutlookaffectedtheentireregion.Globalgeneralpartners(GPs)reducedtheirinvestmentsinAsia-Pacificcountries,anddealsandexitsdeclined.Japanwastheonlymarkettobuckthetrend,withariseindealactivity.InvestorsfoundcomfortinJapan,sdeeppooloftargetcompanieswithperformanceimprovementpotential,itsstableregulatoryenvironment,andpersistentlylowinterestrates.Technologywasagainthelargestindustrysectorintermsofdealsandexits.Theenergyandnaturalresourcessectorwastheonlyinvestmentareainwhichdealvalueandvolumegrewasignthatinvestorsareincreasinglybettingonassetsrelatedtotheenergytransition.GreaterChina,sexitsviainitialpublicofferings(IPOs)werebyfarthebiggestsourceofexitactivity,mostlyintechnology-relatedsectors(suchassemiconductors)thataretypicallythedomainofgovernment-affiliatedfunds.ExcludingIPOsinGreaterChina,exitvaluefellto$65billion,down30%fromthepreviousfive-yearaverage.Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Figure 1: Asia-Pacificdealvalue,exitvalue,andfund-raisingplungedfurtherin2023Asia-Pacificprivateequityexits($B)Asia-Pacific-focusedclosedfunds,bycloseyear($B)Asia-Pacificprivateequityinvestments($B)201819202122Note:ExcludesrealestaleSources:AVCJ;Preqin;Bainanalysis一Exitunt2,000Grapplingwiththesixthyearinarowoflowornegativenetcashflow,limitedpartners(1.Ps)putnewallocationslargelyonhold.Manylimitedfundaisingtofundswithdemonstratedsuccess,exposuretopreferredmarkets,anddifferentiatedstrategies.AsiaPacifcPEassetsundermanagement(AUM)droppedto27%ofglobalAUM,asecondyearofdeclinefollowingmorethanadecadeofsteadyshareg,owth(SeeFigure2).Byyear-end,severalsignsofmarketimprovementbegantoappear,butthetimingofarecoveryremainsunclear.Inationratesbeganfallinginmostmarketsafterspikingin2022.InterestratesinmostAsia-Pacificmarketsareforecasttodeclineinlate2024or2025.AndsomecurrenciesthatdepreciatedagainsttheUSdollarin2022and2023startedtorecover.Finally,stocksendedtheyearwithstrongpeiibrmanceinmostmarkets,exceptChinaandSoutheastAsia.PEreturnswereabrightspotin2023,reconfirmingthatPEisstillanattractiveinvestmentclass,faroutperformingpublicmarketsover5-,10-,and20-yearhorizons.Andatyear-end,industrydatapointedtoconsistentlyhighlevelsofdrypowderintheregion,ensuringfundshaveamplecapitaltodomoredeals.Newsectorsholdpromiseoncearecoverytakesoff.DisruptiveinnovationslikegenerativeAIarecreatingfreshopportunities.OurresearchshowsmostGPsareusinggenerativeAltomitigaterisk,Asia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Figure 2: Asia-Pacific'sshareofglobalassetsundermanagementfellto27%PercentageofAsia-PacificprivateequityAUMvs.globalAsia-PacificPEAUM($T)ShareofAsia-PacificPEAUMvs.global-Asia-PacificPEAUMNote:2023AUMdataasofJune2023Source:Preqinenhanceoperations,andimprovetheperformanceofportfoliocompanies.GPsalreadyarescoutingforgenerativeAIassetscomingtomarketandareassessinghowgenerativeAIcanbeusefulduringdiligenceonpotentialtargets.1.Psarestilloptimisticaboutsomecountrieswithintheregion.AccordingtoPreqin,s2023investorsurvey,thoseinvestinginprivateequityrankedJapanasoneofthetopthreedevelopedmarketsforPEinvestmentopportunitiesoverthenext12months,andIndiaandSoutheastAsiaasthetwobestemergingmarketsforinvestmentopportunities.AsGPsfacedpressuretoexittheirinvestments,returncashto1.Ps,andraiseadditionalfunds,manyshiftedtheirfocustoportfoliomanagementandexitplanning.Withmultiplesdeclining,successfulfundsarebettingontop-lineg,owthandmarginimprovementtoimprovereturns.Despitedifficultexitconditions,PEfundsthatdevelopedapresalesstrategyandcompellingequitystoryfortheirportfoliocompanieswereabletoattractbuyersandexitsuccessfully,accordingtooursurvey.Inaturbulentyearforprivateequity,manyleadingfundsstartedtoexplorealternativeassetclasses,includinginfrastructureandprivatecredit,asakeysourceofgrowth.BothoftheseassetclasseshaveroomtogrowintheAsiaPacificregion.Inourexperience,diversificationischallenging.Thosewhogetitrightbuildneededcapabilitiesandinvestclosetotheircorebusiness.Whathappenedin2023?DealsallbutstoppedIfinvestorshopedthedownturnindealmakingin2022wouldbeashort-termreversal,2023dashedthoseideas.Despitebriefflumesofactivity,themarketcontinuedtodecline.Asia-Pacificdealvaluefellto$147billion,35%belowthepreviousfive-yearaverageand59%belowthe2021highof$359billion.Dealvalueslidtothelowestannuallevelsince2014,andthenumberofdealsdroppedunder1,300,30%lowerthanthepreviousfive-yearaverageof1,849deals.ThedevelopmentinAsia-Pacic,sPEmarketmirroredglobaltrends.Globalbuyoutdealvaluedropped34%vs.thepreviousfive-yearaverage.InChina,investorsremainedcautious.Dealvaluefell58%comparedwiththepreviousfive-yearaverage,reducingChina,sshareoftotalAsia-Pacificdealvalueto28%,downsharplyfromthepreviousfive-yearaverageof43%(seeFigure3).EconomicuncertaintyalsoaffectedinvestorsinAustralia-NewZealand,SoutheastAsia,andIndia,wheredealvaluefell63%,47%,and41%,respectively,vs.thepreviousfiveyears.Eachcountry'sshareoftheregion'stotaldealvaluedeclined,andallthreereportedfewermegadealsthaninprioryears.SouthKoreafaredslightlybetterthanotherAsia-Pacificcountries.Dealvaluefellbyonly20%comparedwiththepriorfiveyearaverage,increasingthecountry,sshareofdealvalue.ThebrightspotintheAsia-PacificPEmarketwasJapan,wheredealvaluerose183%overthepriorfiveyearaverage,makingittheregion'sNo.1dealmarketforthefirsttime(seeFigure4).Dealsover$1billioninvalue(megadeals)werethelargestfactorbehindJapan'ssurgeindealvalue,helpingboostthecountry,sshareoftotalAsia-Pacificdealvalueto30%,upfromthepreviousfive-yearaverageof7%.Bycontrast,Japan'sshareofdealcountwasjust10%,anditsnumberofdealsincreasedonly9%overthepreviousfive-year-average.SeveralfactorsmakeJapananattractivemarketforinvestors.Animportantoneisthecountry,sdeeppooloftargetcompanieswithsignificantpotentialforperformanceimprovement.Anotheriscorporategovernancepressureonleadershipteamstodisposeofnon-coreassets,encouragingspin-offsanddivestitures.Givenitsagingpopulation,Japanisalsograpplingwithalackofsuccessioncandidatestoleadagrowingnumberofcompanies,andsellingtoprivateequityfundsisincreasinglyseenasanAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024Figure 3: Japan,sshareofdealactivitygrew;China,scontinuedtorecedeShareofAsia-Pacificprivateequitydealvalue,byregion100%$128B2251478060402002013-17average201-22average2023Notes：GreaterChinaincludesChina,HongKong1andTaiwan;excludesrealestateSource:AVCJFigure4:JapanistheonlyAsia-Pacificprivateequitymarketthatgrewin2023Asia-Pacificprivateequityinvestmentvalue,bymarket($B)S150B2018-22average20222023Note:ExcludesrealestateSource:AVCJAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024acceptablesolution.Finally,Japanboastsarelativelystableregulatoryenvironmentandpersistentlylowinterestrates.Despitetheseadvantages,Japanisacomplexmarketthatrequiresdedicatedlocalteams.Almost60%ofGPsWesurveyedinJapansaidthatrecruitingandretainingtalentwastheirbiggestconcern.Inaddition,Japan'scurrencyisvolatile,andthecountry,sPEindustryisrelativelysmall.Historically,Japanhasproducedonlyalimitednumberofdealopportunities.Forthefirsttimesince2017,buyoutsrepresentedthelargestproportionofAsia-Pacificdealvalue,pushinggrowthdealstosecondplace.Buyoutsaccountedfor48%ofdealvalue,upfromthepriorfive-yearaverageof32%(SeeFigure5).Growthdealsrepresented41%ofdealvalue.Thisshiftwasmainlyduetoasharpdeclineinthevalueofgrowthdeals,whichfell50%fromthepriorfiveyearaverage.Thetotalshareofgrowthdealsdippedonly13%comparedwiththepreviousfveyearaverage.Severalmarketfactorsunderpinnedthistrend,includingthegeographicalmixofdeals.TheregionproducedfewerdealsinGreaterChina,India,andSoutheastAsia,marketswheregrowthdealsaredominanthistorically.Theregionalsoproducedfewertechnologydeals,whichtypicallyaregrowthdeals.Anotherkeyfactorwasthedeclineinthenumberofgrowthdealsrelativetobuyouts.AclimateofeconomicuncertaintymeansGPscannolongerrelyonmultipleexpansiontoincreasethevalueofFigure 5: TheshareofbuyoutdealsincreasedasinvestorsoptedformorecontrolandlessriskS128B绛147OtherITUrnaroundZrestructuringPIPE3Start-up/eariy-stageGrowthIBuyoutsShareofAsia-Pacificinvestmentvalue,bydealtype100%8060402002013-17average2018-22average202332%44110248%62674Shareofbuyoutdealvalue43%Averagebuyoutdealsize($M)$353MAveragegrowthdealsize($M)$87MNotes:Excludesrealestate;PIPEisprivateinvestmentinpublicequity;start-up/eariy-stageinvestmentsusefinancingforproductdevelopmentandinitialmarketing;thecompanymaybeintheprocessofbeingorganizedormayhavebeeninbusinessforashorttime,buthasn'tsolditsproductcommercially;growthincludesexpansion,growth,mezzanine,andpre-1POcapitaldealsSource:AVCJAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024theirportfoliocompanies.Instead,theyarebettingonoperationalimprovement.Thatmeanstakingamoreactiveroleinportfoliomanagementtoensuresuccessfulexitsandlimitdownsiderisk.Ourresearchshowsthatwheninvestorsselectdeals,26%areseekingtoexercisemorecontrolthantheydidfiveyearsago.And36%areactivelyadjustingtheirportfol100wnershipapproachortargetstructuretoincreaseownershipandcontrol.AclimateofeconomicuncertaintymeansGPscannolongerrelyonmultipleexpansiontoincreasethevalueoftheirportfoliocompanies.Instead,theyarebettingonoperationalimprovement.As1.Psstrivetomitigaterisk,theyareallocatingmorecapitaltolargerfundswithestablishedtrackrecords,andthosetendtobebuyoutfunds.1.argermegadealstendedtobebuyouts,increasingtheshareofbuyoutdealvalue.Growthdealsweresmalleronaveragethaninpreviousyears.Ahighershareofbuyoutdealshelpedboosttheaveragedealsize14%comparedwith2022.However,theaveragedealin2023was7%smallerthanthepriorfive-yearaverage.Whiletherewerefarfewermegadeals,theaveragewas30%largerthanthepreviousfive-yearaverage,and41%largerthan2022.Japan,buoyedbylowerinterestratesandalowercostofcapital,generated63%oftheregion,smegadealsbyvalue.ThesemegadealsincludedJapanIndustrialPartners,$16billion(2.1trillionJapaneseyen)purchaseofToshiba,JICCapital's$6.9billionpurchaseofJSR,andaJICCapital-ledconsortium's$4.7billionacquisitionofShinkoElectricIndustries.GreaterChinageneratedfourmegadealsin2023,asharpdropfromthe14megadealsitaveragedinthepreviousfiveyears.TwoofthelargestwereBainCapitaFsacquisitionofQinhuaiDatafor$3.2billion,andGeneralAtlantic,MubadalaInvestmentCompany,andHongShan,s$2billioninvestmentinfashioncompanyShein.SouthKoreaproducedthreemegadeals,includingEQT,s$2.3billionpurchaseofamajoritystakeinSKShieldusJUCKPartnersandMBKPartners5$1.9billionacquisitionofOsstemImplant；andthe$1.2billionsaleofastakeinSKOnCotoaconsortiumincludingMBKPartners,HillhouseCapital,QatarInvestmentAuthority,andBlackRock.Forthefirsttimesince2016,Indiageneratednomegadealsinthetechnologysectorandonlythreeintotal,comparedwithapriorfive-yearaverageofseven.India,s2023megadealsincludedTemasek,sAsia-PacificPrivateEquityReport2024$2billionpurchaseOfManipalHealthEnterprises；EQTandChrysCapitas$1.1bi