世界银行-缅甸2023年5月特大气旋风暴莫查：全球灾后快速损失估计（GRADE）报告（英）.docx

JUNE29,2023Pzou<al11soosQo=qndNexttoabrokenbridgeinSittwe,inMyanmar'sRakhinestate,washedashorefishingboatsarepiledup.Source:SaiAungMain/AFP.PaZ一一0£n<amsoosQo=qndExtremelySevereCyclonicStormMOCha,May2023,Myanmar:GlobalRapidPost-DisasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)ReportDisclaimerThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.©2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:Internet:ementsThisreportwaspreparedbyateamledbyRashminGunasekera(Urban,DisasterRiskManagementResilienceand1.andGlobalPractice-GPUR1.zWorldBank).TheteamcomprisesofJamesDaniell,AntoniosPomonis,JoshuaMacabuag,JohannesBrand,BramkaArgaJafinozJensdeBruijnzDianaCubas,RoberthRomerozAungNaingOozandKerriCoxoftheGFDRR,sGlobalProgramforDisasterRiskAnalyticsandtheWorldBank'sGPUR1.DisasterResilienceAnalyticsandSolutions(D-RAS)team.TheteamwassupportedbytheGFDRRGlobalProgramfortheDisasterandFCVNexus(D-FCV),comprisingofKarimaBenBihzKatiePeters,and1.ara1.oussert.ThisWorldBankengagementintheEastAsiaandPacific(EAP)RegionwasledbyJolantaKryspin-WatsonwithsupportfromKhinAyeYeezDixiMengote-Quah(EAPUrban/DisasterRiskManagement-DRM),andSutirthaSinhaRoy(EAPPovertyandEquity),ValensMwumvaneza(EAPAgricultureandFood),KemoMansaray(EAPMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestment),andKimAllanEdwards(EAPEquitableGrowth,FinanceandInstitutions);withguidanceprovidedbyMingZhang(PracticeManager,EAPUrban/DRM).TheteamisgratefulforcollaborationandinputsfromUNDPandMIMUteamincluding:OanaMihai,ShonCampbell,KyawZeyaHtunzandothers.TheteamisalsogratefulfortheJust-In-TimefinancialsupportoftheGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR).AbbreviationsNDMC:D-RAS:FAO:GAD:GPUR1.GRADE:MIMU:MOA1.I:PDNA:NationalDisasterManagementCommitteeDisaster-ResilienceAnalytics&SolutionsTeam,WorldBankGroupFoodandAgricultureOrganisationoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAdministrativeDepartmentUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resilienceand1.andGlobalPracticeGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimationMyanmarInformationManagementUnitMyanmarMinistryofAgriculture1.ivestockandIrrigationPost-DisasterNeedsAssessmentContentsAcknowledgements3Abbreviations3ExecutiveSummary5KeyFindings5EstimatedDamages61Introduction811Eventdescription81.2Impacts91.2.1 DamagereportsinRakhineState101.2.2 Damagereportsinotherstates/regions141.2.3 Additionalinformation161 4Conflictexacerbateddisasterriskandimpacts172 AThehistoricalcontextoftropicalcyclonesinMyanmar193 Methodologyandresults2271Exposure222.2Methodologyadopted24?4Estimateddamages2524Socio-economicvulnerabilityconsiderations292.4.1 MultidimensionalpovertyandstructuralvulnerabilityofMyanmarhouseholds292.4.2 ExposureofsociallyvulnerablehouseholdstoCycloneMocha31qInterpretationofresults324Conclusions34Annex 1 -Methodology36Annex 2 -GRADEDataSummary39Annex 3 -ImpactsOftropicalcyclones/stormsaffectingMyanmar(1968to2022)42ExecutiveSummaryGiventhefragileandconflict-affectedsituationwithlimitedaccessinMyanmar,theWorldBankhasadoptedtheGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)methodologytoestimatedamagesarisingfromCycloneMocha.GRADEisaremote,desktopanalysistoestimatedamagetocapitalstock.ThisreportsummarizestheresultsoftheGRADEGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)approachdevelopedattheWorldBankandconductedbytheUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resilienceand1.andGlobalPractice(GPUR1.)Disaster-ResilienceAnalytics&Solutions(D-RAS)KnowledgeSiloBreaker(KSB).Themethodologyaimstoaddressspecificdamageinformationneedsinthefirstweeksafteramajordisaster.Fordetailsofthemethodologysee:conductedtoassessdamagesfollowingtheimpactofExtremelyseverecyclonicstormThisterminologyfollowstheclassificationoftropicalcyclonesintheWMOregionaltropicalcyclonebodies.Availablefrom:accessed18/06/2023MochainMyanmarduringMay2023.KeyFindings TotalDamages:ThemedianestimateoftotaldirectdamagescausedbyCycloneMochaisUS$2.24billion,equivalentto3.4%ofMyanmar'sGDPin2021.Thisincludesdamagestoresidentialandnon-residentialbuildingsandcontents,agriculture,andinfrastructure. OutputDefinition:Economicimpactsarereportedintermsofcapitaldamages,estimatedviatheGRADEmethodology. AffectedSectors:Basedondamagesestimatedfromreportedimpacts,theresidentialhousingsectoristhehardesthit,followedbynon-residentialbuildingsandinfrastructure,andthenagriculture. SpatialDistribution:Over80%ofthedamagesoccurredinRakhineandSagaing.Rakhinewastheworstaffected,withapproximately1.2millionpeopleacrosssevendistrictsand17townshipsimpacted.InternallyDisplacedPersons(IDPs)campsacrossRakhineState,weredevastatedbythestorm,leadingtomanydeaths. PointsofInterest:（八）ThecyclonecausedsignificantdamagestofiveStates/Regionsinthewestandnorthwesternpartofthecountry:Rakhine,Sagaing,Magway,Mandalay,andChin;(b)TheprimarysourceofdamagefromCycloneMochainRakhineStatewaswindwhileinMagwayandSagaingregionstherewasalsosignificantflooding;(c)Infrastructureacrosstheaffectedregionssufferedextensivedamage,includinghealthfacilities,schools,communicationnetworks,andtransportationsystems;(d)Theongoingconflictinseveralregions,particularlyinRakhineState,hasexacerbatedtheimpactsofthecycloneandislikelytoimpacttheresponseandrecoveryprocess.Thispost-disasterdamageestimationeffortprovidesausefulinitialestimateofthedamagesandeconomicimpactcausedbyCycloneMochainMyanmarandcouldcontributeandcomplementadditionaldamageandlossassessmentsinvolvinggroundevaluationstoplananddesignrecoveryplanningandreconstruction.Residentialbuildings,non-residentialbuildingsandinfrastructuredamagesareestimatedviatheGRADEmethodology.Publishednational-levelandstate/township-leveldamagereportsfromlocalsourceshavebeenusedforthemodel(seeAnnex2fordetailedreferences).Datahasbeencross-checkedwithgeoreferencedimagesandfootagefrommainstreamandsocialmedia,andreportsfromotheragenciesandorganizations.Forresidentialbuildings,non-residentialbuildingsandinfrastructure,theanalysesatthispointevaluateonlyphysicaldamagetocapitalstockanddonotcovertheeconomicflowlosses(e.g.,costsofbusinessinterruption).Agriculturaldamagesandlossesareestimatedbasedonthedisaggregation,quantification,andvaluesofcropsfromthe2021StatisticalYearbookandpreviousagriculturalcensuses;combinedwithcurrentyieldestimatesfromstateanddistrictagriculturaldepartments.Agriculturallossesincludedamageandproductionlosses.EstimatedDamagesThecostofdirectdamagestobuildings,infrastructure,andagriculturefromCycloneMochaareestimatedatUS$2.24billion.Thisisequivalenttoapproximately3.4%ofMyanmarzS2021GDP.Theestimationincludesdamagesduetowind,flooding,stormsurgeandlandslidestoresidentialandnon-residentialbuildings(includingbuildingcontents),aswellasdamagestoagricultureandinfrastructuresector.Table1showsthebreakdownofthebestestimateofdirecteconomicdamagesinMyanmarbysectorandbyStateorRegion,andasawholefortheevent.Thereissomeuncertaintyaroundtheestimates,duetoincompletedamagestatisticswhichwerecompensatedforbyusingmodellingmethods.TheanalysesatthispointevaluateonlyphysicaldamagetocapitalstockanddonotcoverthelossesasperPDNAThePost-DisasterNeedsAssessment(PDNA)isaninternationallyacceptedmethodologyfordeterminingthephysicaldamages,economiclosses,andcostsofmeetingrecoveryneedsafteranaturaldisasterthroughagovernment-ledprocess.definition(e.g.,businessinterruption),exceptforagriculture.Thedamagestobuildings(residentialandnon-residential)includebuildingcontents.Itisestimatedthatmorethan70%ofthetotaldamagesoccurredinRakhineState.Damagestohousingandnon-residentialbuildingsandtheircontentsaccountforover49%and18%ofthetotalrespectively,whiledamagestoinfrastructureandagricultureaccountforunder22%and11%ofthetotalrespectively.Table1Estimateofthebreakdownofthecapitaldamagesinabsolutevalues(inUS$millions).Thecoloredbarsindicatetherelativeseverityofthesector'sdamagesineachstate/region.States/RegionsResidentialNon-ResidentialInfrastructureAgricultureTotalRakhine89833129499工522Sagaing74288368254Magway78315733198Mandalay18530963Chin241010550Bago8381130Ayeyarwady314714Shan1O236OtherStates21237Total1O74104902372,244Toderivethecapitaldamages,theanalysishastakenintoconsiderationobservationalandhistoricalinformationintheregion.PublisheddamagereportsfromMay12thtoJune8thhavebeenusedfrom,amongothers,theNationalDisasterManagementCommittee(NDMC)andMinistryofHumanitarianAffairsandDisasterManagement(MOHADM)agencies,aswellasotherstateandtownshipleveldatafromnewsreportsandpublicagencies'reportingThecompletelistofsourcesispresentedinAnnex2.Thishasbeencross-checkedwithgeoreferencedimagesandfootagefrommainstreamandsocialmediazandfloodfootprintsderivedfromsatelliteimageryandflowgaugedatafromMyanmar'sDepartmentofMeteorologyandHydrology(DMH).ThespatialdistributionoftotalcapitaldamagesisshowninFigure5andFigure6(Section2.3).ThegreatestdamageshaveoccurredinRakhineStateandSagaingRegion,whichtogetheraccountfornearly84%ofthetotalaccumulateddamages.Rakhine,astheStatethatwashitthehardestexperiencedatotaldamagethatamountedtoalmost30%ofitstotalcapitalstock.GFDRR族&NK1IntroductionIlEventdescriptionExtremelyseverecyclonicstormMochamadelandfallasaCategory4-equivalentcycloneintheSaffir-SimpsonhurricanewindscaleonSundayMay14,2023zat07:07UTC(14:07localtime)aroundSittwecityzthecapitalofRakhineState,Myanmar(seeFigure1).ItwasoneofthestrongestcycloneseverrecordedinMyanmar,approachingthecoastwith3-minutesustainedwindsof215km/handgustsofupto305km/h,beforecontinuinginlandandaffectingcommunitieswithwindsandheavyrainonMay15th.Strongwinds,heavyrainfallandstormsurgeassociatedwiththecycloneaffectedMyanmarandpartsofBangladesh.WhilstintheBayofBengaloffthenorthwesternMyanmarshoresandaround250kmsouthwestofSittwe,CycloneMochawasthestrongestcycloneinthe2023NorthIndianOceancycloneseasonsofar.Simultaneously,CycloneMocha,alongwithExtremelySevereCyclonicStormFaniofApril2019(whichaffectedtheIndianstatesofOdishaandAndhraPradesh),wasthestrongeststormeverrecordedintheNorthIndianOceanintermsof1-minutesustainedwinds.EmergencyResponseCoordinationCentre(ERCC)-DGECHODailyMap15/05/2023Myanmar,BangladeshTropicalCycloneMOCHA命婴INDIAmajid1.(BANG1.ADESH)(B*NGUdSM)TTOpkaIcycloneSsaroi-Ak*WCu<ctposecn,ForecasttmckPawtfKk©<63km/hTropesdpmsond63-118km/hYTro*ftorm119-265k11VtTropealCyCioneRainfallaccumulatonovertheentiretrackll-lSMy5Ol*2Om<n251-SOOmm1O125Omm251mmStormsuroe*'*<m*0.1-lml-2m>2mFooddfover1214MeyRb3«ACMSMicectITI热J*y44j4I"a-“一CexrM9WMSftyrsChaHBracbvationMyAnmarAXfirBAngIadHhfijJ11G*cswtCmfbrRohrcyarfutCtear11idh),cfnpforJnttmalyU>scPfoc!DP(Mn11w>AdnwvstJativedivbnbeundM-COuncrybcundMyD*i><*fAk<4UknaC)Hfmm*m三hfn4VcMr*11w11*rtJnps.EuwanUnoc2022MappodedbytJRCTbeZborriarAndftme.thownorMm&rtfn<eMccmeetOrxytarrebytFigure1:ThestormtrackofCycloneMochashowingitslandfallinMyanmaron14May2023(Source:DGEcho).CycloneMochaoriginatedfromalow-pressureareathatwasfirstnotedonMay8thjustwestofthesouthernmostpartoftheNicobarIslands.Afterconsolidatingintoadepression,thestormtrackedslowlynorthtonorthwestwardacrosstheBayofBengal.Afterreachingthemiddleofthebay,itmadeaturnnorth-northeastwards,rapidlyintensifyingandmovingfastertowardsnorthwesternMyanmarreachingCategory5-equivalentintensityintheearlymorningofMay14thwithwindsof280km/h.Atthatpoint,CycloneMochawasalargestormwithasymmetricaleyeabout37kmwide.AsitapproachedtheshoresofnorthwestMyanmarandmovedinland,MochaweakenedveryrapidlyandwasnolongerconsideredatropicalstormsystemonMay15th.Alongwithstrongwinds,CycloneMocha,spassageledtoheavyrainfallthatcausedseverefloodsandlandslides.AccordingtotheDMH,severalmeteorologicalstationsreceivedrecordrainfallsonMay14th.ChaukTowninMagwayRegionregistered218mm(8.58in).Thepreviousrecordwasonly97mm(3.82in).Sinbyugyuntown,alsolocatedintheMagwayRegion,reportedrecordrainfalltotalsof177mm(6.97in),alsowellabovethepreviousrecordtotalof98mm(3.86In).ThecontinuousheavyraincausedtheAyeyarwadyRivertooverflowandfloodseveraltownshipsinMagway.BeforelandfallthousandsofvolunteersassistedpeoplelivingintheCycloneMochapathinevacuatingasthecycloneapproachedland.Evacuationswereorderedforlow-lyingareasinRakhine:Sittwe,PauktawzMyebonzMaungdaw,andButhidaung.AccordingtoreportsoftheMyanmarRedCrossSociety(MRCS)zmorethan137,000peoplewereevacuatedfromat-riskareaspriortoMochamakinglandfall,including18,800internallydisplacedpersons(IDPs)inRakhine.Roughly4,000evacuatedfromSittwe(2014censuspopulationofnearlyIOlzOOOinthecityproper,nearly148z000inSittwetownshipandnearly536,000inSittwedistrict-increasedinrecenttimesby140,000IDPslivingincampsaroundthecity)while20,000otherresidentssoughtrefugeinlocalshelters.Monasteries,pagodas,andschools,someofwhichwerepartiallydamagedbythecyclone,haveshelteredthousandsofpeople.Theauthorities'preparationsforshelterstockpiledtoaccommodate100z000people.1.arge-scalesearchandrescueteamswereplacedonstandby,consistingof3,207personnelequippedwith1.oO9landand242watervehicles.DozensofmedicalpersonnelandrapidresponseteamsweredeployedtoRakhineandChin.Non-fooditemsformorethan10z000peoplewereprovisioned.12ImpactsAfterlandfall,asofMay15th,theStateAdministrationCouncil(SAC)declaredall17townshipsofRakhinestateasdisasteraffectedareasundersection11oftheNationalDisasterManagement1.aw.5AsimilarannouncementwasmadeforfourtownshipsinChinState(Tiddim,MatupizPaletwaandHakha)onMay16th.Inaddition,almost150,000peopleintheNorthwest(ChinState,MagwayandSagaingRegions)wereheavilyaffected,aswellasasmallernumberinKachinandShanStates.ThedamagereportsbelowfromtheaffectedStates/RegionsdistrictsandtownshipprovideapartialoverviewofthedamageeffectsofCycloneMocha.ThemainsourcesforthiscompilationaretheUNOCHAFlashUpdates#4to#10(fromMay15-23,2023)andUNOCHASituationReports#1to#3(fromMay25-June1,2023),theAHACentreSituationUpdates#2to#9(fromMay14-30,2023)aswellastheFederalRepublicofMyanmarzNationalDisasterManagementCommittee(NDMC)infographicsfromMay29toJune2,2023postedonthewebsiteoftheMinistryofSocialWelfare,ReliefandResettlement(MoSWRR).1.2.1 DamagereportsinRakhineStateApproximately1.2millionpeopleinallsevendistrictsand17townshipsinRakhineStatewereaffected,buttheworsteffectswereseenineighttownships(SittwezRathedaungzPonnangyunzPauktawzMrauk-U,Kyauktaw,MunaungandButhidaung)withthesouthern