世界银行-性别与财政政策——方法论建议及其在约旦和亚美尼亚的应用（英）-2024.3_市场营销策划_.docx

PaUO1.nnValnsoosQ.2-qndPolicyResearchWorkingPaper10733GenderandFiscalPolicyAMethodologicalProposalandItsApplicationtoJordanandArmeniaPZ'OfnValnsoosQ.2-qndJonJellemaCarenGrownlanFuchsMatthewWai-PoiSaileshTiwariMarianoSosaworldBankgroupPovertyandEquityGlobalPracticeMarch2024Poi.icyRESEARCHWorkingPaper10733AbstractFiscalpoliciesaffecthouseholdsandindividualsinaVarietyofways.Eventhoughtheseeffectsarelikelytobedifferentformenandwomen,conventionaltoolsoffiscalincidenceanalysisaretypicallyunabletocapturethesegenderdifferences.UsingaparticulartypeofincidenceanalysisknownintheliteratureastheCommitmenttoEquityframework,thispaperproposesamcthodologrtoovercomethischallenge.Aparticularnoveltythepaperintroducesistheexplicitincorporationofsocialreproductionintothefiscalincidenceanalysisframework,enablingtheimplicitvaluationofunpaidworkthatistypicallyundertakenbywomenonactivitiessuchascooking,cleaning,andcaringforchildrenandtheelderly.AppljringthismethodologytotheeasesofjordanandArmeniatwocountrieswithVCrydifferentapproachestofiscalpolicyandculturalnormsaroundtheeconomicandsocialrolesofmenandwomenthepaperalsohighlightssomeoftheinsightsthatthisengenderedperspectivecouldaddtostandardfiscalincidenceanalysis.ThispaperisaproductofthePovertyandEquityGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarcalsopostedontheWebatTheauthorsmaybecontactedatj.jcllcmaworldbank.org;afuchsworldbank.org;mwaipoiworldbank.organdstiwariworldbank.org.TbcPoiityRese<rcbWoriungPaperSeriesdisseminatesU)efindingofnorkhiprocesstoencouragetheexCban.ofideasaboutda>elopnentissues.Anol)jecti>eoftheseriesisto妒tbefindingoutquickly,eveniftbepresentationsarelessthanfullyf)olisbed.Thepaperscanythenamesoft!)tauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Tbefinding,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareenfirefythose可theauthors.TheydonotnecrssarilyrrprvstrnttbeviewsoftbeInleniationalbankforReconstructionandDevtiopMenl/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganisations,orthoseoftbeVlxecuihvDincforsoflbeWorldBankortbeff>vmmentstheynpresen/.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamGenderandFiscalPolicyAMethodologicalProposalandItsApplicationtoJordanandArmeniaThispaperwasproducedbytheGlobalSolutionsGroupforFiscalandSocialPoliciesandEquityofthePovertyandEquityGlobalPracticeoftheWorldBank.TheworkwasdoneunderthemanagerialoversightofBenuBidani(PracticeManager,POVertyandEquityGlobalPracticeUnit)andtheoverallguidanceofCarolinaSanchezParamo(GlobalDirector,PovertyandEquity)andHanaBrixi(GlobalDirector,Gender).SeveralroundsofhelpfulCOmmentSandfeedbackwerereceivedthroughouttheprocessfromatechnicaladvisorygroupthatincludedDavidCoady,SusanHimmelweit,AbenaOduro,Nora1.ustig,DanielaCasale,JanetStotsky,andStephenYounger.TheauthorsalsogratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportreceivedfromtheHewlettFoundationandtheGlobalTaxProgram(GTP).JonJellemaMatthewWai-PoiCarenGrownSaileshTiwariAlanFuchsMarianoSosaJE1.Classifications:H22,H23zJ16Keywords:taxes,transfers,incidenceanalysis,gender1 IntroductionPublicrevenueandexpenditurepolicies,ortaxesandtransfers,shapeindividuals'behaviors,consumption,savingsandinvestmentpatterns,participationinlabormarkets,andaccesstosocialsafetynetsandotherpubliclyprovidedgoodsandservices.Poorandvulnerablewomen,men,andchildrenmakedecisionsabouthowmuchtoworkoutsidethehomeforpayorinsidethehomewithoutpay,abouthowmuchtosaveandspend,aboutwhattobuyzandaboutwhichservicesareessentialforwhichhouseholdmembers.ThesedecisionsareoftenmadeundersevereHnancialzsocial,andculturalnstraintszwhichfiscalpoliciescaneitherameliorateorexacerbate.Fiscalincidenceanalysis(FIA)zwhichaccountsforthereceiptofpublicexpenditures(transfers)andcontributionstopublicrevenues(taxes),candemonstratehowpoliciesaffectwelfare,purchasingpower,andwealth,andcanidentifypoliciesthataremosteffectiveinredistributingpublicresourcestothosewhoneeditmost.WhileFIAhasbecomeanintegralcomponentforassessingtheequitablenatureoffiscalsystems,mostFIAworkdoesnotattempttodescribehowfiscalPOIiCydifferentiallyimpactsmen,women,andchildren.Incidenceaccountingattheindividuallevelischallengingfortworeasons.First,fiscalpolicieseithersupportorhinderactivitiesahouseholdmemberpursues,ratherthanindividualhouseholdmembersortheircharacteristics.Second,whentaxburdensandtransferbenefitsarelinkeddirectlytoindividualsortheircharacteristics,theymayormaynotbesharedbroadlyamongallhouseholdmembers.Forinstance,awomanreceivingacashtransfermaynotnecessarilycontrolhowthatadditionalincomeisused.Analogously,aman,sstatutoryliabilityforincometaxesmaynotmeanhealonewillbeartheentireeconomicburdenofanyincomelosttotaxpayments.Gendernormsinfluencetheactivitiesinwhichmenandwomenparticipate.Fiscalpolicyeithersupportsenomicandsocialactivitiesthroughpublicexpendituresormakessuchactixdtiesmoreexpensivebyimposingtaxes.Forexample,BamettandGrown(2004)identifyfourdifferencesineconomicactivitywhichconditiontheimpactoffiscalpolicies:genderdifferencesinpaidformalandinformalemploymentandwages,genderdifferencesinunpaidcareworkorparticipationinsocialreproduction,genderdifferencesinassetownership,andgenderdifferencesinconsumptionbehavior.Theimpositionoftaxesonthewagesofthosewhoareformallyemployedorthesupportofsubsidyexpendituresencouragingconsumptionofbasiccommodities,forexample,linkfiscalpolicydirectlytoeconomicandgender-basedinequality.Internationalframeworkshavealsoimplicitlyconnectedfiscalpolicytogenderinequality.Forexample,theSustainableDevelopmentGoals2030(SDGS)havelistedgenderequality(SDG5)andreducedinequality(SDG10)asseparategoals;whileSDGTarget5.4,“Recognizeandvalueunpaidcareanddomesticworkthroughtheprovisionofpublicservices,infrastructureandsocialprotectionpolicies.zandSDGTarget10.4,“Adoptpolicies,especiallyfiscal,wageandsocialprotectionpolicies,andprogressivelyachievegreaterequality“arelistedseparately.Bothdimensionsofequalitywilllikelybeaddressedthroughacommonsetoffiscalandsocialpolicies.Socialandfiscalpoliciessupportinggoalsandactivitiesintargets5.4and10.4willbefundedatleastpartiallybyuntries,ownrevenues,whichalsolinkstheseSDGtargetsexplicitlytotaxandrevenuellectionPOlicy.Whilegrants,donoraid,andncessionalloanswillpartiallyfundorotherwisesupportpublicpolicy,thecontributionfromdomesticresourcesisexpectedtobeequallylargeifnotlarger(1.agardeandGaspar2018).Foranempiricallookathowincreasedmobilizationofdomesticresourcesmayweakentheequit),impactsofexpenditures,see1.ustig(2018).Thispapermakestwomaincontributionstotheliteratureontheequityimpactsoffiscalpolicy.First,itusestheCommitmenttoEqUity(CEQ)frameworktobringtaxesandbenefitstogethertoexaminethedifferentialimpactsoffiscalsystemsonactivitiesthatmenandwomenundertakeatthehouseholdlevel.TheCEQapproachwasdevelopedbytheCommitmenttoEquit),Institute(CEQInstitute)atTulaneUnivereity.Themethodology,imple-mentationguidelines,applications,andsoftwareoftheCEQapproachcanbefoundin1.ustig,Nora,ed.2018.CommitmenttoEquityHandbook:EstimatingtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonMeqtmHtyandPoverty.BrookingsInstitutionPress,pp.3-55.Assuchthemethodologyisaregisteredtrademark.TheWorldBankandtheCEQInstituteareresponsibleforapproximatelytwo-thirdsoftheexistingorongoingCEQassessmentexerciseswhiletheCEQInstituteandotherpartnersareresponsiblefortheremainingone-third.Developedin2008,theCEQframeworkexamineshowtaxesandspending(includingindirectsubsidies,education,andhealthexpenditures)affectincomeinequalityandpovertyattheCoUntrylevel.Sincethedevelopmentofthismethodology,ithasbeenappliedtomorethan105countriesacrosstheworld?Second,thispaperexplicitlybringssocialreproductionintotheFIAframework.Socialreproductionistheproductionandmaintenanceofhumancapabilities,oftenundertakenbywomen,suchascking,cleaning,andcaringforchildren,theelderly,andotherdependents;subsistenceactivitieslikefetchingwater;andtheprovisionofcultural,social,physical,andeducationalguidancenecessaryforthehouseholdmemberstothriveandincreasetheircapability.SoeiaIreproductioniscrucialforthedevelopmentofhumancapabilities;itisthereforeanecessaryconditionfortheshort-andlong-termgrowthofenomiesandthesocialandculturalinstitutionssupportingtheeconomies.WetreatsocialreproductionaspartOfahousehold'stotalsoalandeconomicactivity.Socialreproduction-howitisaccomplishedandwhoaccomplishesit-isthereforesubjecttothesametypeOfconstraintsthatinformotherhouseholddecisions.Wesuggestahousehold-leveltypologytounderstandwhichhouseholdsareinvolvedinwhichactivitiescriticalforsocialreproductionand,basedonalargeliteratureaboutthegenderdivisionOfpaidandunpaidwork,SeeCharmes(2019,2022);RubianoandVollaz(2019);DinkeImanandNgai(2022);andPailhe,Solaz,andStanfors(2020).makeassumptionsaboutwhointhosehouseholdsisresponsibleforthoseactivities.Thisanalyticalchoiceallowsestimationofthelikelyimpactoffiscalpoliciesonindividuals-basedontheirhouseholdroles-toincorporateadeeperunderstandingofgenderinequalitiesineconomiclife.Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2ProVideSasummaryofstudiesthathaveinvestigatedthedifferentialimpactsoffiscalpoliciesonmenandwomenandsituatesthispaper'scontributionswithinthatliterature.Section3includesadiscussionofgender,socialreproduction,andthemarketeconomyandoutlinesthevariouswaysinwhichagenderlensmightfeaturewithinafiscalincidenceanalysis.Section4introducestheCEQandproposesamethodologyforpractitionersinexaminingthedifferentwaysinwhichfiscalpoliciessupportorundermineequalitybetweenmenandwomen.Section5presentstheapplicationoftheproposedmethodologytothecasesofJordanandArmenia,highlightingsomeofthemainresults.Thefinalsectionconcludeswithsomereflectionsontheapplicationofthismethodologytoothercountriesandthekindofdatathatcouldbeusefultoextenditfurther.2 GenderDimensionsinFiscalPolicyEarlystudiesinvestigatingthedifferentialimpactsoffiscalpolicyacrosssexandgenderSexreferstothebiologicaldifferencesthatcharacterizemalesandfemales,whilegenderisthesocialconstructionofmaleandfemaleidentitybasedonbiologicaldifferences(seepage5).lookedattheexpenditureortaxsidesoffiscalpolicyinisolation.Forexample,SeldenandWasylenko(1995),Demery(1996),SahnandYounger(2000),andPritchettandFilmer(1999)examinedtheincidenceOfeducationandhealthexpendituresseparatelyformenandwomenusingasampleof57DemographicandHealthSurveys(DHS)from41countries.Glick,Saha,andYounger(2004)developedamoresystematicattemptto“engender“benefitincidenceanalysis,examininggendergapsinbenefitsfromhealth,education,andinfrastructure(watersupply,electricity,androads).MorerecentworklookingatthedifferentialimpactofbenefitsortransferseatedfrompublicexpenditureincludesAziz,Gemmell,and1.aws(2013)forNewZealand;DrleyandKeane(2020)forIrelandandtheUnitedKingdom;andGarcia-Pena(2019)forBarbados.UsinghouseholdsurveydatafromBulgaria,GhanazJamaica,Madagascar,Mauritania,Pakistan,Peru,Uganda,andVietNamztheycalculatedtheshareofbenefitsastheproportionofmales/femalesinanygivenquintilethatbenefitfromaparticularpublicsendeeinthesesectorsanddocumentedlargegendergapsinaccesstotheseservices.GrOWnandValodia(2010)investigatedthedifferentialburdenoftaxesacrossgendersViahouseholdtypes.GrownandValodia(2010)pilotedtheproposedmethodologyineightcountries:SouthAfrica,Ghana,Uganda,Morocco,India,Mexico,Argentina,andtheUK.Forexample,householdsmighthavemale,female,orjointincomeearners;ormaleorfemaleadultmajorities;oryounger-orolder-agedependents(orboth).TaxincidenceIncidenceismeasuredascumulativetaxespaidasashareofpost-taxhouseholdexpenditure.Otherstudiesestimatingthedifferentialinci-denceofdirecttaxregimesincludeDoorleyandKeane(2020)forIrelandandtheUK;Aziz,Gemmell,and1.aws(2013)forNewZealand;1.ahey(2017)forAustralia;Garcia-Pena(2019)forBarbados;Rossignolo(2018)andRodriguez-EnriquezandAguiIa(2017)forArgentina;andBakkerandPhilipps(2018)forCanada.OtherstudiesestimatingthedifferentialincidenceofindirecttaxesincludeGarcia-Pena(2019)forBarbados;Vijil(2017)forNicaragua;Casale(2012)forSouthAfrica;FragosoandGonzales(2010)forMexico;andBucheliandOlivieri(2013)forUruguay.isestimatedandcomparedacrossthedifferenthouseholdtypesandacrossthepost-taxexpendituredistribution.Morerecently,Komatsuandothers(2021)usedsociological,cultural,andinstitutionalinformationregardingtheroleofwomeninagriculturalproductioninEthiopiatobetterilluminatewhyastatutorilyneutr11lagriculturalincometaxandrurallandusefeenonethelesscreatedlargereconomicburdensforhouseholdsdistinguishedbyhavingfemaleagriculturallandowners.Greenspun(2019)usedtheGrownandValodia(2010)householdcategoriesbutbroughtboththeexpenditureandtaxsidestogetherwithintheCEQassessmentFIAframework.Greenspun(2019)coveredfive1.atinAmericanuntries.TheCEQassessmentarchitectureisfullygeneralizabletoanysocial,enomic,orfiscalntext.Morerecently,AmbelzWondigmagegn,andYonis(2022)estimatedthedifferentialimpactsoffiscalpolicywithinaCEQassessmentframeworkforEthiopia.Theapproachesdescribedabovecapturecertainaspectsofgenderrelationsatthehouseholdlevel:itisthehouseholdthatisclassifiedacrdingtotype,anditisacrosshouseholdsofdifferenttypesthattheincidenceoffiscalpolicyiscompared.Estimatingacompleteintrahouseholddistributionofbenefitsorburdensfromfiscalpolicyrequiresfine-grainedindividualdatawhichisoftennotavailable.Thereasonisneoclassicaleconomictheoryassumesthathouseholdsmaximizethewelfareofallhouseholdmembers,andthatthehouseholdfunctionscollectivelyandhasasingle,cohesiveobjective.Neoclassicaleconomictheoryalsoassumesthatindividualsmaximizetheirownpersonalutility,including,forexample,decidingwhetherandhowtoshareanypersonalincomegainsoragreeingtosharetaxburdens.Household-basedsurveysdonotyetsystematicallycapturehowtheincome-basedbenefitsreceivedandtheincomelossesfromtaxpaymentsaresharedamongindividualmembersofthehousehold.Individual-leveldatahelpfulformorepreciseestimatesoftheincidenceoffiscalpoliciesonindiidualsistime-usedata,orrecordssummarizingthedifferentialtime-usepatternsofmalesandfemales,children,andtheelderly,and(potentially)householdmemberswhoareeithertemporarilyorpermanentlyabsent.Beyondthat,detailedindividual-levelinformationonassets,employment,income,andconsumptionexpenditurecouldbeusedtoprovideindividual-levelimpactestimatesoffiscalpolicies.Understandinghowtheincomegainsandlossesgeneratedbytransfersandtaxesareallocatedamongindividualhouseholdmembersisnecessarytounderstandhowfiscalpoliciescreateindividualimpacts.Aclassofempiricalmodelshasattemptedtocaptureintrahouseholdresourceallocationsusinginformationonexclusiveorassignableexpenditures;anexampleoftheformerisspendingontoysexdusivelyforchildrenandofthelatterisexpenditureonclothingforboys,men,girls,andwomen(1.ewbelandPendakur2008;Dunbarandothers2013;Chiapporiandothers2002;Bose-Dukerandothers2021;Bargain2022).Indescribinghowtheintrahouseholdallocationofresourcescreatesinequalitywithinthehousehold,orvaryinglevelsofresourcepovertyfordifferentmembersofthesamehousehold,thesemodelsallowadescriptionofhowintrahouseholdinequalitychangesfrompre-fiscaltopost-fiscalincome