【消费洞察分析报告】麦肯锡-中国消费：新时代的开始（英）-6页.docx

McKinsey&CompanyNovember2023ChinaBriefChinaConsumption:StartofaNewEraDanielZipser,Leader,McKinseyAsiaConsumer&RetailPracticeAfteranencouragingstartinthefirstquarterofthisyear,second-quarterandthird-quarterconsumptiondataconfirmswhatmanyintheindustryhavealreadycometoaccept:theeraofdouble-digitgrowthinChina,sretailsectorisover.whencomparedtothealreadysubduedthirdquarterofthepandemic-impacted2022.Despiteapromising7.5percentuptickinretailsalesinOctober,therearecurrentlyfewindicationsthatChinawillseeafundamentalreversalinthistrend.(Exhibit1)Third-quarterretailsalesofgoodsgrewbyonly3percent,withtherecentDoubleElevenshoppingfestivalekingoutamere2percentincreaseoverthepreviousyear.Thisslowdownisevidentacrossvariouscategories,includingcosmetics(3percent),clothing(4percent),andappliances(0.8percent),Exhibit1ChinamacroeconomicandconsumptionindicatorsMacroeconomic indicatorsYoY growth in percent1GrowthofkeyconsumerproductcategoriesYoYgrowthinpercent1vs. 2022vs.2022Q32YTD3Q32YTD35.2%5.5%18.7%126.7%5.3%6.8%10.6%-0.6%6.7%Allvehicles37%EVs1.Volumeforautos(CATARC),valueforothercategories2. Q3growthdataiscalculatedbasedonmonthlyvaluedata,exceptforGDPgrowthwhichisdirectlyreleasedbyNBS3. January-September2023Source:NBS,CATARC,CAACDespiteinitialsignsofrecoveryinconsumersentimentearlierintheyear,ithassinceplateaued,hoveringarounditsall-timelowsinceApril.Factorscontributingtothisincludeasignificantdropinresidentialpropertytransactionsapastpillarofwealthcreationalongsidedecliningexportsandconcernsaboutgeopoliticaltensions.(Exhibit2)Residential property transactions (sqm) Index 2019=100, adjusted for seasonality (3-month moving average)Exhibit2ResidentialpropertytransactionsandconsumerconfidenceConsumerconfidenceindex(CCI)1Monthly1.Theindex/SUb-indexrangesbetween0and200.100isthemedian,indicatingthatconsumerconfidenceisneutral.0indicatesextremepessimism;200reflectsextremeoptimismSource:NBSDespitea5percentsurveyedunemploymentrateinurbanareasandacontinued6percentannualincreaseindisposableincomes,includingin2023,consumersremaincautiousaboutspending,especiallyonproperties.Householdsavingsratesarestillsignificantlyhigherthanpre-COVIDlevels(34percentversus30percent),withlimitedsignsyetoftheadditionalRMB53trillioninsavingsaccumulatedsince2020beingfunneledintoconsumption.ThisequatestoanextraRMB38,000inthebankaccountsofeachconsumer,awaitingexpenditure.Anotableexceptionistheservicesector,particularlyintravelandentertainment.Afteryearsofrestrictedmobility,there'srenewedenthusiasmfortravelandsocializinginrestaurantsandbars(bothsectorstoppedthelistintermsofrateofgrowthinMcKinsey,smostrecentConsumerWiselsurveyofChineseconsumers).Foodservicesectorgrowth-arobust19percentyear-to-dateand14percentinQ3over2022ispartlyduetoalowercomparativebasefrompreviousyearsandconsumers*increasedspendingondiningandtravel.Domestictravelhasreboundedtosurpass2019levels,andtraveltoHongKong,Taiwan,andMacaoisapproachingpre-pandemicfigures(83percentof2019levelsinSeptember).Whileinternationaltravelremainsataroundhalfof2019levels,thisisprimarilyattributedtovisarestrictionsandhighflightprices.Theshiftfromproducttoserviceconsumptionisexpectedtocontinueinto2024.(Exhibit3)Exhibit3GrowthinairtravelPre-COVID-19level=100,month-by-monthcomparisonDomestic (excl. HK/TW/MC)Hong Kong/Taiwan/MacauInternationalSource： CAACDoubleElevenDoubleEleven,theworld,slargestshoppingfestival,warrantscloserexamination.Thisyear,whilesalesinchedupbyjust2percentoverlastyear,itnonethelessreachedastaggeringRMB1.1trillioninGMVacrossallplatforms,surpassingtheannualconsumptionofsomeentireeconomies.TheeventssheerscaleoffersvaluableinsightsintoChineseconsumerbehavior:The2percentgrowthoveranalreadyflat2022wasdrivenbydiscountsandpromotions,withtheaveragesellingprice(ASP)decliningformajorbrandscomparedtolastyear.Categoriesexperiencinggrowthareconsistentwithtrendsobservedthroughouttheyear,suchasfootwear,foodandbeverage,andsportsandoutdoor.Appliancesandforthefirsttimebeautyandpersonalcarehaveseennotabledeclinescomparedtolastyear.Livestreamingcontinuesitsupwardtrajectory.Traditionale-commerceSlightlydeclinedduringDoubleEleven,whileIivestreamingsurgedbyapproximately20percent,contributingto20percentofthetotalGMV.Thisgrowth,amplifiedbystrongplatformsupport,reflectsongoingtrendsin2023.Majorplatformshaveheavilyinvestedintrafficsupportandproductsubsidies,withKuaishoualoneprovidingRMB2billioninproductsubsidiesand18billionintrafficsupport.Over60percentofthetop58Tmall/TaobaoIivestreamingchannels,eachwithoverRMB100millioninGMV,areoperatedbybrandsratherthanKOLs.Thisunderscoreshow,morethanever,brandsareembracingIivestreamingasapowerfulshoppingchannel.Weanticipatefurtherinnovationinthisarea,withbrandsincreasinglyfocusingoncontentoverdiscount-drivenstrategiesandexploringwaystoleveragetheirphysicalretailinfrastructure.PremiumbrandscontinuetoperformwellandmanygainedshareduringDoubleEleven.Premiumbrandssawtheiraveragesellingpricesdeclineduetointensepromotionalactivityandconsumersswitchingtolower-pricedplatformsorpurchasingsmallerpackagesizes.Thistrendisconsistentwithwhatwe,veseenthroughouttheyear.TopskincarebrandsonTmall,forinstance,reportedlowerASPsduring2023,sDoubleElevencomparedtothepreviousyear,apatternthatisevidentinothercategories.(Exhibit4)GMV 2022-23RMB billionYoY growth, %+2% YoY growth+19%-1%'H General ecommerce1 Livestreaming ecommerce2Exhibit4DoubleElevenshoppingfestivalGMVgrowthGMVoftop10categories3RMBbillion1.B2CecommerceincludingTmall,JD,PDD,et.al.IncludingDiantao(TaobaoIivestreaming),Douyin,Kuaishou,et.al.3.GMVonGeneralB2CEcommerceplatforms,e.g.,Tmall,JD,PDD,andDiantao;Top10categoriescomprise82.2%oftotalGMVSource：Presssearch;SyntunWideningperformancegapbetweenthewinnersandthelosersOuranalysisof80leading,publicly-listedconsumercompanieswithamajorityofrevenuesfrommainlandChinarevealsanuancedpicture.Thesecompanies,mostlyChinesewithafewmultinationalcorporationshavingspunofftheirChinabusinesses,spanvarioussectorsandshowvaryingperformancelevels.Whileoverallgrowthtrendstowardslowsingle-digits,Weobservedsubstantialdifferencesamongthesecompanies.One-quarterofthesecompaniesexperiencedyear-to-datedouble-digitgrowth,while12percentsuffereddouble-digitdeclines.Successappearstobelinkedtoinnovationinbrandlaunchesandbusinessmodels,andquick,agileresponsestochangingmarketandconsumerdynamics.Performancediscrepanciescanalsobeattributedtosectoraldifferences.Restaurantsandpharmacies,forinstance,havegenerallyoutperformedofflineretail.However,withinindividualsectors,there,sagrowingdividebetweenhigh-performingandlow-performingcompanies.Asconsumerdemandnolongerexpandsatpastrates,weanticipatefurtherwideningincompanyperformance.Factorssuchashigh-qualityproducts,premiumbranding,andrapid,insights-drivenresponsestomarketchangeswillcontinuetobekeysuccessindicators.(Exhibit5)Exhibit5RevenuegrowthofconsumercompaniesinChinaSampleof80listedconsumercompanieswithmajorityofrevenuesinMainlandChina2023 YTD revenue growthSource: McKinsey CPAStillcautious,stilloptimisticSo,whatdoesthismeanforthefuture,andwheredoesitleavemycautiousoptimism?Ifsstillverymuchpresent.China,seconomyissteadilyevolvingtowardsbeingmoreconsumption-driven.Retailgrowth,encompassingbothproductsandservices,isexpectedtoriseby5percentthisyear,withsimilarprojectionsforthecomingyears.GivenChina,svastmarketsize,thistranslatestoanadditionalRMB10trillioninretailsalesoverthenext5years.Toputthingsintoperspective,suchgrowthwouldmakeChinathesingle-largestgrowthmarketglobally.IncrementalgrowthatthisscalewouldbeequaltothecombinedretailsalesofIndia,Indonesia,andSouthKoreatoday.Whilerecoverymaybeslowerthananticipatedandlowconsumersentimentcoulddampengrowthratesinthecomingmonths,thelong-termprospectsoftheChinesemarketremainrobust.AccordingtosimulationsbytheMcKinseyGlobalInstitutethenumberofupper-middleandhigh-incomehouseholdsmayreach200millionby2025and260by2030.Thenumberofhigh-incomecitiesareprojectedtohit82by2025and93by2030.Continuedurbanizationandrisingincomelevelsareexpectedtosustainablydriveconsumptiongrowthinthemediumtolongterm.(Exhibit6)Number of high-income cities in ChinaUpper-middle and high income households as % of all urban households12% 41% 52% 62%Share of China's populationShareofChinatS GDP27% 39% 44%47%58%64%Exhibit6Numberofupper-middleandhighincomehouseholdsinChina2020realRMBNumberofupper-middleandhighincomehouseholds(>160,000RMBannualhouseholdincome)Million1.CitieswithpercapitaGDPhigherthan$12,695Source:MGIInsightsChinamacromodelDanielZipserisaseniorpartnerinMcKinsey&CompanyzSShenzhenoffice,andleadstheAsiaConsumerandRetailPractice.