麦肯锡-在美国再投资2023年12月（英）.docx

McKiiisey&CompanyMcKinseyonGovernmentReinvestinginAmericaHelpinggovernmentsrenewthesourcesofeconomicstrengthanddeliverfortheirpeopleContentsZtIntroduction611217273949USgovernmentproductivity:Amorethan$2,000perresidentopportunityTransformingpublicsectorhiringwithdata-enabledtalent'winrooms/67Federalfinancialmanagement:HowgovernmentscandomorewiththebudgetstheyhavezDigonce,couldhelpstatesmanagematerialandworkershortages72Inclusiveinfrastructureinvestment:HowtoempowercommunitiesOneyearintotheBIL:CatalyzingUSinvestmentsinenergy91Buildinginnovationecosystems:AcceleratingtechhubgrowthPavingthewaytoresilience:Strengtheningpublicsectoradaptationplanningandexecution111Ruralrising:EconomicdevelopmentstrategiesforAmerica'sheartlandClosingthedigitaldivideinBlackAmerica119WillalaborcrunchderailplanstoupgradeUSinfrastructure?CanpublicEVfast-chargingstationsbeprofitableintheUnitedStates?127UnlockingthepotentialofgenerativeAl:ThreekeyquestionsforgovernmentagenciesIntroductionAdi KumarSenior PartnerLeader, Federal Civilian PracticeAdi_KumarMcKNehal MehtaAssociate PartnerColeader, Reinvesting in AmericaNehal_MehtaMcKTim WardSenior PartnerLeader, State and Local PracticeTim_WardMcKTodd WintnerPartnerColeader. Reinvesting in AmericaTodd_WintnerMcKAs2023endsandwelookaheadto2024,ourworldandourcountrycontinuetofaceabroadrangeofchallenges-includingclimatechange,economicuncertainty,andcontinuedgeopoliticaltensions.Inthefaceofthesechallenges,theUnitedStatesisinvestingtrillionsofdollarsinpublic-sectorcapitalviatheBipartisanInfrastructureLaw,theInflationReductionAct,andtheCHIPSandScienceActtobolstereconomicsecurity,energysecurity,andnationalsecurity.Inaggregate,thesenewinvestmentsseektoacceleratetechnologyandtransformAmerica'sindustrialpolicyandbuiltenvironment.Ifimplementedeffectively,thesepoliciesmayfundamentallyalterthepublic-andprivate-sectorlandscapeforthenextseveraldecades.Theyear2023wasoneofplanning.TheUSfederalgovernmentdraftedandissuedguidanceforarangeofnewprograms.Manystategovernmentsdesigned,launched,andscaledcentralcoordinatingfunctionschargedwithwinningcompetitivegrantsanddeployingfederalfunding(competitiveandnoncompetitive,newandenduring)asefficientlyandeffectivelyaspossible.Agencyleadershavedevelopednovelapproachestodeployinggreenfinancing,expandingbroadbandinfrastructure,acceleratingnewtechnology,andbuildinghydrogenhubstoensurethattheUnitedStatescankeeppacewiththedemandsofrapidmodernizationacrossindustries.Webelieve2024willbeayearoftransitionfromplanningtoimplementation,withmoreshovelshittingthegroundeachdaytobuildthefutureAmericaneconomy.Tomakethishappen,leadersatthefederal,state,andlocallevelscanworkwithindustrycounterpartstoaddressabevyofsignificantbuttractablechallenges,suchascomplexserviceprocurementtimelines,materialandlaborsupplychainshortages,andpermittingrestrictions.Toinspireyoureffortsovertheweeksandmonthsahead,wedevelopedthiscompendiumcontainingsomeofthemostreadperspectivesfromMcKinsey,sReinvestinginAmericaInitiative.Wethankyouforthetimeandenergyyouareinvestinginourcountryatthiscriticalmomentandwishyouallthebestin2024andbeyond.December2023USgovernmentproductivity:Amorethan$2,000perresidentopportunityGovernmentremainsoneofthebiggestproductivityimprovementopportunities.Organizationsmustbegivenboththeabilityandmotivationtoimprove.byNikhilSahni,VishnuMurale,DavidCutler,ShubhamSinghal,andAlanGerberThisarticleisthefirstinaseriesontheUSgovernment'sproductivityimprovementopportunity.AstheUSeconomyhasevolved,ithasshiftedfrompredominantlymanufacturingtoservices.Whilesomeoftheseservicesindustrieshavemadeproductivityimprovements,manylagbehindtheoveralleconomy.Forexample,healthcareremainsagrowthenginefortheUSworkforcebutisoneoftheslowestintermsoflaborproductivitygrowth.1Governmentisalsolargelyaservicesindustryandoffersoneoftheeconomy,slargestproductivityimprovementopportunities. Nikhil Sahni, Pooja Kumar, Edward Levine, and Shubham Singhal, "The productivity imperative for healthcare delivery in the United States," McKinseyf February 27, 2019. Government productivity: Unlocking the $3,5 trillion opportunity, McKinsey Center for Government April 2017. Data from OECD on general government spending, accessed on June 26r 2023; data from International Labour Organization on public employment by sectors of national accounts, accessed on June 26,2023.Fornearlyallcountries,governmentrepresentsthelargestportionoftheeconomyandisthebiggestemployer(Exhibit1).Forexample,intheUnitedStates,governmentatalllevelsaccountedforabout47percentofGDPandabout17percentoftotalemploymentin2020?Furthermore,governmentplaysacriticalroleinsociety,rangingfrombuildingroadstoeducatingyouth.Inmanycases,whenthegovernmentintervenes,itisnecessarybecausethereisnofunctioningcompetitiveprivatecounterpart.Moreover,theimperativetocapturethegovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityhasintensified.TheCOVID-19pandemicputpressureoneconomiesaroundtheworld,promptinggovernmentstospendlargeamountsofmoneytodistributeCOVID-19relief.AsCOVID-19movestoanendemicphase,newmacroeconomicissueshaveemerged,mostnotablyatalentshortage,inflation,andhighdebt-servicingcosts.,Addie Fleron and Shubham Singhalf *The gathering storm in US healthcare: How leaders can respond and thrive/ McKinsey, September 8r 2022.Forexample,in2022,theUSfederalgovernmentspentthelargestamounteverondebtinterest,reachingnearly2percentofGDP.*What are interest costs on national debt/ Peter G. Peterson Foundation, May 30, 2023.Havingtogetbywithbothasmallerworkforceandweakergovernmentbalancesheetssuggestthattheneedforproductivityimprovementshasincreased.Inthisarticle,wesetouttoestimatethesizeoftheUSgovernmentsproductivityimprovementopportunity.Wedefinedproductivityasoperationalefficiency;otherresearchershavefocusedonpolicyeffectiveness(seesidebarrtWhyhasitbeendifficulttomeasuregovernmentproductivity?").WequantifiedtheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunitybylevel-federalaswellasstateandlocalandcategory,suchashealthcareorroadtransport.Overall,wefounda$725billionto$765billionproductivityimprovementopportunitythatis,roughly$750billionannuallythatcouldbesavedwhilekeepinggovernmentservicesoperatingjustaseffectively.Thiswouldbeequivalenttomorethan$2,000perresident.About60percentofthetotalwasatthestateandlocallevel.Acrosscategories,about40percentoftheopportunitywasinhealthcare;9percentwasinprimaryandsecondaryeducation.Wealsoconvertedthisopportunityintoanoperationalframeworkthatcouldaidgovernmentorganizationsindeterminingwhatactionstotake.Basedonourexperiencewithhundredsofpublic-andprivate-sectororganizations,theframeworksuggeststhatoperationalchallengeslieinanorganization'sabilityandmotivationtoimprove.Werecognizeandacknowledgethatavarietyofciviccompactsshapehowgovernmentssetpriorities,andthusgovernmentshavefundamentallydifferentimperativesthanthoseoftheprivateandsocialsectors.Governmentorganizationsmaymakeproductivitytrade-offsinserviceofthoseinstitutionalimperatives.Inthisreport,productivityisthefocus,butitisjustonewayofevaluatinggovernmentactivity.Exhibit1Inmanycountries,governmentspendingandemploymentmakeupasizableportionofGDPandtotalemployment,respectively.Breakdownofgovernmentspendingandemploymentbycountry,2020FranceGreeceBelgiumFinlandItalyDenmarkCanadaUKSwedenSpainIcelandSloveniaHungaryGermanyPortugalPolandNetherlandsGovernmentspending,%ofGDP52.452.152.051.251.251.150.449.248.347.8Percapitagovernmentspending,currentPPP,1$51529,41516,96232,12729,90724,50632,57725z08724,03729,23219,73927,79020,90617,451Governmentemployment,%oftotalemployment215I蛀24.115.529.029.219.425.028,47317,21216,83828,613.17.1I17.1Totalgovernmentemployment,thousandsS,8097669046353,3528441,3805,3431,4613,1571789024,6587191,6491,14647.330,03322,633lPurchasing-powerpamy.Source:InterrutionalUbourOrganization;OECDMcKmsey&CompanyWhyhasitbeendifficulttomeasuregovernmentproductivity?Theterm"productivity"isusedinmanycontextswithdifferentintentions.Forexample,leaderswanttotalktoeachotheraboutproductivitybutmayuseconflictingdefinitionswhentheydoso,leadingtodisagreements.Forthisarticle,weemployedadefinitionofproductivitythateconomistscommonlyusetoconductindustry-levelanalyses.1Thisfocusesonminimizingtheinputsrequiredtoproduceasetofoutputs(exhibit).Tounderstandwhyithasbeendifficulttomeasureproductivityingovernment,itishelpfultofirstlookathowproductivityismeasuredintheprivatesector.Withrespecttotheequationintheexhibit,inindustriessuchasmanufacturing,inputandoutputpricesandvolumeproducedarequantifiable.Inputsrepresentthecostofgoods,sales,generaladministrativeexpenses,andothersuchoperatingcostsforgoodsorservicesproduced.Outputsareestimatedbythepriceaconsumeriswillingtopay,whichaccountsforthequalityofthegoodorservice,multipliedbythevolume.Tomeasureproductivity,itiscriticaltobeabletoseparatepriceandvolume.Whengovernmentisinvolved,inputsandoutputsaremuchhardertomeasure.Researchershavetriedtoovercomethisprobleminafewways.Oneapproachhasbeentoconductinternationalcomparisonsbetweengovernments;thisoffersinsightintotheproductivityimprovementopportunityatthenationallevel. Robert M. Solowr *Technical change and the aggregate production function/ The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1957r Volume 39, Number 3. Edwin Lauz Zsuzsanna Lontiz and Rebecca Schultz. *Challenges in the measurement of public sector productivity in OECD 180 countries/ International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, 2017, Volume 32. 4lPubIic-Sector productivity (part 1): Why is it important and how can we measure it?/, World Bank Group, February 2021.Forexample,healthcarespendingcouldbecomparedacrosscountries,suchastheUnitedStatesandCanada.Butthesecomparisonsmaybemisleadingbecausetheydonoteasilytakeintoaccountdifferencesinhowgovernmentdeliversthesegoodsorservices,andtheresultingneedformoreorlessspending.Continuingwiththeexample,thelargelypublic,singlepayerhealthcaresysteminCanadamaynotneedasmuchmoneyasthemarketbasedmodelsintheUnitedStates.Thisapproachalsotendstoexcludestate-orlocal-levelcomparisons.Anotherapproachhasbeentodivedeeplyintoasetofgovernmentorganizationsanddevelopspecificmetrics.Forexample,toexaminetheefficiencyofpublic-healthinitiatives,someeffortshavetrackedmicroleveloperationalmetrics,suchashousevisitsbyindividualhealthcareworkers?Thesecanbehelpfultotheextentthatthemetricsareoperationallyfocused.Thechallengewiththisapproachisthatitishardtoaggregateuptothetotalopportunityacrossthegovernment.Inourview,thesetwoapproachesaredirectionallycorrectbutareeachincomplete.Neitherprovidesacomprehensiveroadmapforthegovernmenttomeasureproductivityimprovementopportunitiesacrossthefullrangeoffunctionsitprovides.Further,whenestimatingproductivityforgovernment,itisimportanttoseparateefficiencyfromeffectiveness.Productivityasdefinedinthisarticleisrelatedtothecreationofgoodsandservices;thisisefficiencyofproduction.Thegovernmentalsosetspolicy,theassessmentofwhichconcernsquestionsofeffectiveness.Whileefficiencyistiedtospecific,measurableunits(thatis,detailedoutputsandinputs),questionsofeffectivenessfocusonhowoutputstranslateintodesiredpolicyoutcomes,suchasshiftsinwealthamongpopulationgroups.Effectivenessisoutsidethescopeofthisarticle.ExhibitProductivityTotal value of outputsTotal value of inputsOutput volume X output pricesInput volume × input pricesMcKinsey&CompanyTheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityToestimatetheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunity,weusedapreviouslyPublishedapproachbytheMcKinseyGIobaIInstituteandadaptedittoconductacountry-specificanalysis.6Thisapproachaccountsforbothcostandqualityandisappliedtothefederallevelandthestateandlocallevel.Wecenteredouranalysisonfivecoregovernmentspendingcategoriesinwhichcostandqualitydatawerereadilyavailable:healthcare,roadtransport,primaryandsecondaryeducation,highereducation,andpublicsafety.Wethenusedtheseestimatestoscaleacrosstheremainingcategoriesofgovernmentspending.Webasedouranalysison2020governmentspendingdata.Thatyear,afteraccountingforintergovernmentaltransfers,governmentsintheUnitedStatesspent$9.9trillion,ofwhichapproximately58percentwasatthefederallevelandtheremaining42percentwasatthestateandlocallevel(Exhibit2)JOfthis0.04 0.04 0.050.11Exhibit2Forouranalysis,weconsideredabout58percent,or$5.8trillion,oftotalUSgovernmentspendingin2020.TotalspendingacrosstheUSStateandlocal=4.23Federal=5.72government,2020,$trillion Healthcare PrimaryandsecondaryeducationRoadtransport Publicsafety Highereducation Other(addressable)1 Other(notaddressable)'Note：Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.NumbersadjustedforintergovernmentaltransferstoreflectwheretheworkIsdone.lForstateandlocalspending,Othercategoriesanalyzedincludecommunityandregionaldevelopment,internationalaffairs,generalgovernment,andnationaldefense.Forfederalspending,othercategoriesana(zedincludeairtransportation,financialadministration,fireprotectionjudicialandlegal,generalgovernmentexpenditure,generalpublicbuildings,libraries,othereducation,othergovernmentaladministration,parksandrecreation,protectiveinspectionandregulation,sewerage,solid-wastemanagement,andutilityexpenditure.'Spendingthatwasunspecifiedorcouldnotbefurtheroptimizedintermsofoperationswasconsiderednotaddressable.Source:OfficeofMarugementandBudget;USCensusBureauMcKinsey&Gxnpany° Government productivity. April 2017. The intergovernmental transfers establish where the work is done versus where the work is funded. For example, Medicaid dollars are accounted for at the state and local level, though the funding is from the federal level. Due to data limitations, state and local spending could not be split.total,about42percentwaseitherunspecifiedorcouldnotbefurtheroptimizedintermsofoperations,suchaspayinginterestondebtorSocialSecuritypayments.Thistypeofspendingwasexcludedbecauseitisnotrelatedtoefficiencyofproductionbutismorecommonlyrelatedtopolicyeffectiveness,whichwasnotinthescopeofthisarticle.Asaresult,ouranalysisfocusedon$2.3trillionofgovernmentspendingatthefederalleveland$3.5trillionatthestateandlocallevel.WethenestimatedthattheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityis$725billionto$765billion,adjustingforwagedifferencesacrossstates(seesidebar“HowwemeasuredtheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityw).About60percentofthetotalwasatthestateandlocallevel,withnearlyathirdoftheopportunityinhealthcareandabout15percentinprimaryandsecondaryeducation.Oftheremaining40percentatthefederallevel$285billionto$295billionabout50percento