numb3rs 904 p223章节台词文本.docx
数字追凶(2005)Numb3rsSeason2Episode1Part3实际上Don认为她检控的那个男人也许就是ActuallyfDonthinksthere'sachancethemanshe'sprosecuting指使谋杀法官妻子的人maybebehindthemurderofthejudge'swife.你知道吗？根据那样的推理Youknowsomething7Underthatreasoning,这位检控官不是也一样可能成为攻击对象吗？wouldn'tthatmakethisprosecutorjustaslikelyatarget?RaymondHmong有动机RaymondHmonghasthemotive.他是第二号♥人物但我认为他没这个胆He,sthenumbertwo,butIdon'tthinkhehasthenerve.是啊但DannyPhan肯定是有这个胆的Yeah,WelLDannyPhan'sgotthenerveforsure,只是没有动机butnomotive.问题是Colby-ProblemisColby他那时真的把Raymond逼到极限了你知道吗？hereallypushedRaymond'sbuttonsoutthere,youknow?好的那有怎样？Okay,so?听着只要盯着JFM1.ookJustkeepaneyeontheJFM.一旦我们发现Hmong有所行动就把他们网打尽这样可以吗？IfwepickupthatHmong'smakingamove,thenwehitthem,okay?好的没问题Allright.Noproblem.但这次Colby他我想他太急躁了ButthisColbyJmean,Ithinkhe'srunninghot.是啊但在你说更多之前Yeah,well,beforeyousayanythingmore,他刚刚也在说你的坏话所以.hewasjustinherebitchingaboutyou,so.还有什么是“恐吓他”？Andwhatarewolftickets?就是差劲的比喻你懂吧？It'sabadbluff,youknow?就是”叫狼来了的小男孩”It,s"TheBoyWhoCriedWolf."Don我只是想告诉你Colby有军人心理DonJ,mjusttryingtosayColbyhasthisArmymentality.他认为每个人都是必须遵从命令的士兵Youknow,hethinkseverybody'saprivatewhohastofolloworders.Don他逼得太紧了Don,hegoesintoohard.David你去年也是新人Youknow,David,youwerethenewguylastyear,你那时太懒散了andyouweretoolaid-back.花了很长时间你才学会主动Tookyoutoolongtotakeinitiative.然后你才变得更好Andyougotbette11youimproved.是的但我只是觉得.-伙计们Yeah,Ijustthought.-Guys.嘿我刚要去找你Hey,Iwasjustcomingtogetyou-Don要我们去查一下黑帮内部的一些问题Donwantsustocheckoutsomegangintel.可能不需要了Yeah,well,mightnothaveto.我刚在洛城警署的档案数据库里查下Trelane的地址IjustranTrelane1SaddressthroughLAPDdispatchdatabase,看有没有小偷之类的报♥警♥seeifthereareanyprowlerreportsoranything.看看这个:在2001年5月至2003年6月间1.ookatthis:betweenMay2001andJune2003,洛城警署共收到5通来自TreIane家的家庭纷争报♥警♥1.APDrespondedtofivedomesticdisturbancecallsatTrelane'sresidence.显然他们自己搞定了所以拖延了下来Apparently,theyhadsomeknock-down,drag-outs.没有立案？Nocriminalreportsfiled?是啊他可是联邦法官这没什么好奇怪的Yeah,welbguy'safederaljudge.Nosurprisethere.没有但看这个:有两次No,butlook:Ontwooccasions,Trelane被安排离开住所Trelanewasinstructedtovacatethepremises.我们一直都假设杀手是冲着法官来的却错杀了他太太We'vebeenassumingtheshooterwasafterthejudgeandgotthewifebymistake.是啊我们可能把这一切都搞错了Yeah.Wemightbelookingatthisallwrong.事实是你忘记告诉我们你们有过家庭争端的历史Thingis,youneglectedtomentionyourhistoryofdomesticdisputes.因为那就像你所说的-是历史Becausethat,swhatitwas-history.你有没有过不开心自己的工作Eppes探员？Youeverbeenunhappywithyourjob,AgentEppes?是的我有过长官Yes,Ihave,sir.我说的不开心是需要用一个小时的沉默和三杯酒才能抚平的mtalkingaboutakindofunhappythattakesanhourofsilenceandthreedrinkstocomedownfrom.做法官的并不天生就是是理智的Sittinginjudgmentdoesnotcomenaturallytoareasonableman.酗酒的问题变得更糟我也变得更糟Thedrinkinggotworse,andsodidI.但我们现在谈论的是家庭暴♥力♥Well,we'retalkingaboutviolencehere.我从未被捕过Iwasneverarrested.那是因为你是联邦法官You'reafederaljudge.就算我在最低潮的时候我也从未打过AlisonEvenatmylowestpoint,IneverlaidahandonAlison.我是生自己的气而不是她的Iwasangrywithmyselnotwithher.她报的警Shecalledthepolice.是的然后她离开了我Yes.Andsheleftme.但那就是我的警钟Butthatwasmywakeupcall.我从那之后一直参加戒酒援助项目vebeenintheprogrameversince.她什么时候回来的？-去年8月Whendidshecomeback?-LastAugust去年是我们婚姻中最快乐的时光Ourlastyeartogetherwasthehappiestofourmarriage.听着1.ook.就算她现在可能还活着knowingthatshe'dprobablystillbealive,还肯回到我身边但我的工作可能会害死她thatcomingbacktomeandmyworkiswhatkilledher.做好你的工作吧Doyourjob.去查我的不在场证明我的帐户你需要的一切.Checkmyalibi,mybankaccounts,whateveryouneed.然后找出那个杀死我妻子的混♥蛋♥andthenfindthebastardthatkilledmywife.所以说贝叶斯定理所要阐明的是SoBayes'theoremstatesthatuncertainty,不确定性程度是能够以可能性来衡量的degreesOfbeliefCanbemeasuredasprobabilities.ChaHie你知道我花了两天时间来把这些档案排序吗？Charlie,doyourealizeIspenttwodaysputtingthesefilesinorder?是的我知道Yeah,right.呃按时间顺序为什么你要那么做？Uh,newesttooldest.Whydidyoudothat?因为犯罪者在他或她犯罪时更可能是出J：愤怒而行动Becauseacriminalismuchmorelikelytoactonhisorherragerightaroundthetimeofconviction.他们会更关注最先的那个仇恨点？Youknow,whilethefocusisstillsharp?与此相反的不也同样正确吗？Couldn,ttheoppositeholdtrue?仇恨随着时间而不断恶化Agrudgefesteringovertime,新的发展又使之加剧？newdevelopmentsaggravatingit?但那要基于个性和实际情况Itwoulddependuponthepersonalityandthesituation.所以说如果时间对不同的人产生不同的效果So,iftimefunctionsdifferentlyondifferentpeople,那么根据时间排序的做法不会比随机选择一份文件档更有效thenachronologicalapproachwouldbenomoreeffectivethanchoosingafolderatrandom.是的但你必须有地方开始着手Okay,yeah,butyouhavetostartsomewhere.不你必须从一切开始着手No.Youhavetostarteverywhere.假设这些事成绩单好吗？Thesearereportcards,okay?但我们要找的不是最新的学生或是最老的学生Butwe'renotlookingfortheneweststudents,ortheoldest.我们要找的是平均成绩最高的学生We'relookingfortheonewiththehighestgradepointaverage.根据分数得出的可计量性行为Withthegradesbeingforquantifiablebehavior,比如说犯罪的本质suchasthenatureofthecrime,刑罚的严重程度theseverityofthesentence,潜在的获利性thepotentialforgain.是的但这并不只是一堆A和BCharlieYeah,butthisisn,tjustahandfulofA'sandB's,Charlie.这些是人类真实的原始动机Thesearereallyrawhumanmotivations,比如说愤怒和报复likerageandrevenge.折纸手工Origami.在折纸手工里Inorigami,有6种基本的折叠therearesixbasicfolds:山脉mountain,山谷对折valley,diagonal,折叠和摊开foldandunfold;颠倒和翻折reverse,andturnover.每一种折叠都是简单的有限的EachfoldisaSimPIe,finite,即刻可计量的行为imminently-quantifiableaction.但组合数量的无限性ButtheinfinitenumberOfcombinations创造出无限形式的可能性createsthepossibilityforaninfinitenumberofforms.决策论认为我们应该用同样的标准决定我们每一个行为Decisiontheorycontendsthatweshouldusethesamebasiccriteriawitheveryactionwetake.风险回报Risk,reward,结果consequence,还有确定性andcertainty.但人类的行为并不是完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