国际能源署-与印尼公正能源转型伙伴关系一起推动印尼电力系统脱碳（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_.docx

eNavigatingIndonesianPowerSystemDecarbonisationwiththeIndonesiaJustEnergyAou 64 Ap U 山 UO÷:E-U-eINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminestheIEAmemberIEAassociationfullspectrumofenergyissuescountries:countries:includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicOfTurkiyeArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineThispublicationandanyUnitedKingdommapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,totheUnitedStatesdelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,TheEuropeancityorarea.CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEASource: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orqeAbstractAbstractIndonesiaisoneofthefastestgrowingeconomiesintheworldandwithitsrapidlygrowingenergydemand,abundantenergyandmineralresources,itissettoplayakeyroleintheglobaleconomicandenergylandscape.Decarbonisingitspowersystemhasbeenidentifiedasakeyenablertoachieveitspledgefornetzeroemissionsby2060,ascoalpowerdominatesitselectricitymix.TosupportIndonesianpowersectordecarbonisationefforts,theJustEnergyTransitionPartnershipwasestablishedduringaG20summitinBali,inNovember2022.ThefirstdeliverableoftheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership,whichwassupportedbytheIEA5istheComprehensiveInvestmentandPolicyPlan,publishedinNovember2023.Itdetailsanenergytransitionpathwayforthepowersector,proposespolicyreforms,providesaframeworkforajustenergytransitionandoutlinesfinancingneedsandrequirements.Inthisreport,wetakestockofthecurrentpowersectorlandscapeofIndonesia,summariseIEA,sroleintheJETPSecretariatandcontributionstotheworkthatledtotheJETP,sComprehensiveInvestmentandPolicyPlan.WealsoprovideanoverviewoftheJETPpathwayaswellasanalysisandrecommendationsfortheeffectivedecarbonisationofIndonesianpowersector.Acknowledgements,contributorsandcreditsThisreportwaspreparedbytheRenewableIntegrationandSecureElectricity(RISE)UnitintheintheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS).TheprincipalauthorwasIsaacPortugalRosas,withmajorcontributionsfromZoeHungerford,JavierJorqueraCopier,AxelPriambodo(consultant).PabloHevia-Koch5HeadoftheRenewableIntegrationandSecureElectricityUnit,directedthisreport.ThankstoAstridDumond,IsabelleNonain-SemelinandJethroMullenoftheCommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO)fortheirrolesinproducingthisreport.ZoeHungerfordeditedthereport.ThereportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthesupportfromMichaelWaldron,KieranClarke,VrindaTiwari,RanyaOualid,CraigHart,YuNagatomi,JavierJorqueraCopier,KeithEverhart,EnriqueGutierrezTavarez,RenaKuwahata,JacquesWarichet5JuliaGuyon(ex-IEA)andMinnaGenser(ex-IEA),allwhichprovidedsupportandcontributionstothecollaborationwithIndonesia.ThisreportwasproducedwiththefinancialassistanceoftheEuropeanUnionaspartofitsfundingoftheCleanEnergyTransitionsinEmergingEconomiesprogramme(CETEE-2)withintheIEA'sCleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme.ThisreportreflectstheviewsoftheInternationalEnergyAgencySecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofindividualIEAmembercountriesortheEuropeanUnion.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespecttothereport'scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thereport.donesiaJustEneiExecutivesummaryThedecarbonisationofIndonesia'senergysysteminvolvesasignificanttransformation.Itimpliesshiftingawayfromfossilfuels,whichin2021accountedfor80%intheelectricitymix,tohighersharesofcleanenergygeneration.Thisshouldbeimplementedwhileensuringeconomicgrowthandequitableenergyaccesstoitspopulationof276millionpeople.SeveralnationalandinternationaleffortsunderpinIndonesia'sdecarbonisationobjectives.Nationally,theEnergyLawNo.30of2007andthe2014NationalEnergyPlanguidetheIndonesiangovernment'seffortstoreducefossilfueldependence.ThesearecomplementedbypoliciesaimedatphasingoutfossilfuelsubsidiesinlinewithIndonesiangoaltoachievenetzeroemissionsby2060.In2022,aspartoftheinitiativeswithinthecountry'sG20presidency,theIndonesiangovernmentalongwiththeInternationalPartnersGroup(IPG)releasedtheJointStatementontheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP).TheUnitedStatesandJapanco-ledthegroup,withmembersincludingCanada,Denmark,theEuropeanUnion,France,Germany,Italy,Norway,andtheUnitedKingdom.TheJETPaimstomobiliseUSD20b川ionoverthenext3-5yearstohelpIndonesiapursueanacceleratedjustenergytransitionthatsupportsatrajectorythatkeepsawarminglimitof1.5abovepre-industriallevelswithinreach.TheIPGmembersaimtomobiliseUSD10billion,whiletheGlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZero(GFANZ)WorkingGroupwillworktomobiliseandfacilitateatleastadditionalUSD10billioninprivatefinancesubjecttocatalyticpublicfinanceandwithcollectiveambitionbyallparties.TheGFANZincludesaninitialsetofinstitutionssuchasBankofAmerica,Citi,DeutscheBank,HSBC,Macquarie,MUFG,andStandardChartered.TheJETPintendstoalsoleveragetheexpertise,resources,andoperationsofthemultilateraldevelopmentbanks.TheJETPdevelopedacomprehensiveinvestmentplan,aimingtoreachapeakinpowersectoremissionsnotabove290MtCO2by2030andachievingnetzeropowersectoremissionsby2050.Intandem,itseekstospeed-uprenewablesdeployment,aimingforaminimumrenewableshareof34%oftotalelectricitygenerationby2030.Inordertomanagetheday-to-dayimplementationofIndonesia'senergytransition,theIPGandGovernmentofIndonesialaunchedtheSecretariatfortheJETP.TheSecretariat,whichishostedbytheMinistryofEnergyandMineralResources(MEMR)andsupportedbytheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)1servesasthecoordinatorforinternalandexternalstakeholdersontheJETP,andwouldplayanimportantplanningandprojectdevelopmentfunctionfortheJETP.CurrentpoliciesdriveanincreaseinpowerdemandTheComprehensiveInvestmentandPolicyPlan(CIPP)forIndonesiaprojectsasignificantincreaseinon-gridelectricitydemand,withanannualgrowthrateof6.4%in2022-2030and5.8%in2022-2050.Thisisdrivenbyrisingincomes,highercoolingdemand,industrialisation,andincreasedelectrificationofmobility.IntheCIPP,expandingindustrialcapabilities,transportelectrificationandhydrogenproductionleadtoashiftinelectricitydemand.In2022,theresidentialsectorconsumed54%ofon-gridelectricity,thecommercialsector30%,andtheindustrialsector16%.By2050,thesesharesareexpectedtoshiftto36%forresidential,29%forcommercial,and23%forindustrialcustomers,withtransportandhydrogenproductionaccountingfortheremaining12%.Energyefficiencyanddemandresponseareidentifiedaskeymeasurestomitigatetheimpactofenduseelectrificationaswellasinchangesonthesystem'speakload.IntheCIPP,energyefficiencyanddemandresponseareidentifiedaskeymeasurestomitigatetheimpactofend-useelectrificationandchangesonthesystem'speakload.However,theanalysisfallsshortinprovidingathoroughevaluationoftheircontribution,indicatinganeedformorein-depthanalysisusingsophisticatedstochastic-basedapproaches.TheJETPaimstoacceleratedecarbonisationTheJETPscenarioenvisionsasignificantincreaseinrenewablecapacity,whichrepresentedabout9GWon-gridcapacityin2022.By2030,solarPVandwindareexpectedtoreach29GWand9GW,respectively,whereashydropowerremainsthemainsourceofrenewableenergybyinstalledcapacitywith14GW.Lookingto2050,thescenarioforeseessubstantialexpansion,withsolarPVdominatingatover260GW(55%oftotalinstalledcapacity),windpowerreachingabout44GW,andhydropowersurpassing65GW.WhiletheJETPscenariooutlinesanambitiousdecarbonisationpathway,thereareconcernsthatfastindustrialdevelopment,particularlyinnickelmining,mayleadtonewoff-gridcoal-firedplantsoutsideofthepowersystemdevelopmentplan,posingariskoflocked-inemissionsfordecades.Acomprehensivestudyoftheoff-gridpowersystemiskeytoanticipateandmitigateitsimpact.AchievingtheJETPscenariodependsonsupportivepoliciesforsolarandwinddeployment,includingprovidingthemwithafavourablefinancialenvironmentandreducingrequirementstouselocallymanufacturedgoodsordomesticallyprovidedservices.ToensurethatJETP,sobjectivesaremet,itiskeytoprioritisesolarandwinddeploymentandestablishguardrailsaroundthesetechnologies.Thisinvolvesimplementingmeasuressuchasprioritydispatch,addressingpotentialbottlenecksinconnectionqueues,andenhancingoverallsystemoperations,includingcloser-to-real-timegenerationschedulinganddispatch.ImprovingflexibilityandsystemoperationsIntheJETPscenario,flexibilityprovisioninthepowersectorevolvesalongsidethepowersystem.Challengesrelatedtosystemadequacyandflexibilitycanbemitigatedwitharangeofsolutionsincluding:improvedpowersystemoperations,dispatchandscheduling;andcontractualflexibilityandresponsivenessofexistingthermalplants.Overtime,demand-sidemeasures,suchastime-differentiatedtariffsandflexibleEVcharging,arehighlightedfortheirpotentialtoenhanceflexibility,thoughtheformerisnotexplicitlymodelledinthescenario.UndertheJETPscenario,meetinggenerationadequacyrequirementsshiftsfromtraditionalpowerplantstovariablerenewables,storageanddemand-sideresponse.Tosupportthis,severalenhancementsinpowersystemoperationswillbeneededtoensuresecureoperationatlowestcost.Thecountryshouldadoptthelatestplanningtechniques,basedonstochasticassessments,whichprovideaclearerpictureofthecontributionofvariousinvestmentsingrids,storage,andgenerationtowardsasecuresystem.Inoperations,thecountryshouldreduceitsminimumreservecapacitymarginfrom30%in2023to10%by2040anddeploystorageandsmartEVcharging,whichwillbothincreasetheamountofvariablerenewablesthatcanbedeployedeconomically.FlexibleEVchargingcouldpotentiallyreduceweeklypeakloadby10-15%.EnsuringaffordabilityandresilienceThecurrentrelianceofIndonesianpowersystemonfossilfuelsandparticularlycoal-firedgenerationcreatesconstraintsthatshouldbeconsideredwhendevisingadecarbonisationstrategy.ThefollowingactionsshouldbeprioritisedtosupportdecarbonisationinIndonesiatakingintoaccounttheexistingthermalfleet: Reviewthestructureofcurrentcoalpowerpurchaseagreements(PPAs)todefineaphase-outstrategy. UnderstandfinancialimplicationsforPLNofreducingoperationoftheircoalfleet.Indonesia'spowerdecarbonisationneedsaphasedcoalphase-out,includingreducedoperationofprivateandPLN-ownedplants.ThisrequiresunderstandingPPAs,finances,subsidies,fuelcontracts,andassetconditionstoavoiddeadlockandalignwithPLN'sgoals.Ensuretheprovisionofflexibilityisproperlyremunerated. Designrobustscenarioswithstochasticprocessestoimprovesystemplanning.Chapter 1. TheIndonesianenergylandscapeIndonesiaisasignificantplayerintheglobalenergylandscapeIndonesiaisasignificantplayerintheglobalenergylandscape.ThecountryistheSiXteenth-IareeSteconomyintheworld,anditseconomywasthefourth-fastestQroWinClG20memberin2022,behindonlytheRepublicofTurkiye5IndiaandSaudiArabia.ThecornerstoneofIndonesianenergysectorhashistoricallybeenitsrichnaturalresourceendowment,withabundantreservesofcoal,oil,andnaturalgas,particularlycoal.Indonesiaisthefourth-largestcoalproducerandoneofthebiggestcoalexportersintheworld.In2021,coal-firedgenerationmadeup61%ofthegenerationmix,andthecountry'scoalexportsreachedapproximatev470millionmetrictonnesin2022(about6%ofglobalcoalconsumption).Intotal,fossilfuelsmakeup81%oftheelectricitymix,andasaresult,Indonesiaisgrapplingwithhighcarbonintensityinitselectricitysector.Thecountry'sEnergyLawNo.30of2007andthe2014NationalEnergyPlan(NEP14)havesettargetstoachieveamoresustainableelectricitymix,aimingtoincreasethecontributionofrenewableenergyto23%oftotalelectricityconsumptionby2025andatleast31%by2050.Thesetargetsaimtoreducecarbonemissions,mitigateclimatechange,andaddresstheenvironmentalimpactsoffossilfueluse.Indonesiahasalsocommittedtoachieveeconomy-widenetzeroemissionsby2060.ThemainchallengesofthepowersysteminIndonesiainclude: Highrelianceonfossilfuels.Indonesia'spowersystemisheavilyreliantonfossilfuels,particularlycoal,whichhasledtohighcarbonintensityandsignificantgreenhousegasemissions. Rapidlygrowingenergydemand.Thecountry'srapideconomicgrowthandpopulationexpansionhaveresultedinasubstantialincreaseinenergydemand,whichthepowersystemwillneedtomeetreliablyandatlowcost. Emissionsreductionandenergytransition.Indonesiawillneedtoreduceemissionstofightclimatechangeandreducelocalairpollutants,whichrequiresareductionincoal-firedgeneration. Infrastructuredevelopment.Indonesiawillneedtomodernisesystemcomponentstoensuresecurepowersystemoperation,whichwillrequiresignificantcapitalinvestments.IndonesianenergytransitioncanbesupportedbycollaborationbetweentheIndonesiangovernment,internationalpartners,energycompanies,andlocalandinternationalstakeholders.Suchcollaborationisneededtosteerpolicyevolution,investmentsinrenewableenergyinfrastructure,strategiestophaseoutcoalgeneration,andestablishregulatoryframeworkstosupportthecleanenergytransition.TheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)agreement,signedinNovember2022,aimstoacceleratethecountry'senergytransitionthroughapartnershipbetweenIndonesiaandtheinternationalcommunity,ledbytheUnitedStatesandJapan,supportedbytheUnitedKingdom,Germany,France,theEuropeanUnion,Canada,Italy,Norway,andDenmark.TheJETPservesasahubtochannelinvestmentsandmanagetechnicalguidancebetweenthevariousstakeholders.Itemphasisestheneedforadetailedroadmaptoreducecoal-firedpowergenerationandincreasetheshareofrenewableenergyinIndonesia'spowergenerationto34%by2030toalignpowersectoremissionswiththe1.5target,aidedbyaninitialinvestmentofUSD20billionoverthenextthreetofiveyears.TheIndonesiangovernmenthasestablishedtheJETPSecretariattomanageday-to-dayimplementationofIndonesia'senergytransition.Itintendstodevelopinvestmentandpolicyplanstosupportthecountryinachievingitsenergytransitionobjectives.TheSecretariatissupportedbyfourindependentworkinggroups-withtheTechnicalWorkingGroupledbytheIEA.ThisreportgivestechnicalinsightsintothedevelopmentofIndonesianpowersectortransitionplanundertheJETPtakingplacein2023,basedontheIEA'sparticipation.Servingasapivotalhub,itnotonlychannelsinvestmentsbutalsoservesasabeaconfortechnicalguidance.Together,thesecollaborativeactionspaveIndonesia'spathtowardasustainable,low-carbonenergyfuture,shapinganarrativeofprogressandenvironmentalresponsibility.ReportScopeandstructureThisreportpresentsanexplorationoftheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP),ledbyglobalpartnersandsupportedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),highlightingitspivotalroleinphasingoutcoalenergyanddirectinginvestmentstowardsrenewableinfrastructure.Thereportisorganisedintosixparts.Chapter1setsthesceneforIndonesia'senergysystemanditsmainchallengesahead.Chapter2focusesontheintricaciesofitspowersystem.Chapter3describesthecreationandmaingoalsoftheIndonesianJustEnergyTransitionPartnership,andChapter4summarisesIEA,sactivitiesinsupportingtheJETPprocess.Finally,Chapter5providesastocktakeofthed