美中贸易全国委员会-2021年美国各州对中国的商品和服务出口报告（更新至2021年11月）（英）-18正式版.docx

2021DistrictExportReportUSCongressionalDistricts,GoodsandServicesExportstoChinaoverthePastDecade2021TMUSCNNHAU>eX*COUNCIL2021DistrictExportReportUSCongressionalDistricts1GoodsandServicesExportstoChinaoverthePastDecade2021November2021ExecutiveSummary1Methodology3GoodsExports5ServicesExports10ExportsandUSJobs15Thejjs-Chinabusinesscouncil美中贸易全国委负会ExecutiveSummaryDespiteheightenedtensionsbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaandthebeginningofapandemic-inducedglobalrecessionin2020,USgoodsexportstoChinareboundedaftertwoyearsoftariffincreasesonbothsides.Earlyitheyear,theUnitedStatesandChinasignedthePhaseOnetradeagreement,creatingmarketopeningsinChina.Bothsideshaltedtariffescalations,Chinainstituted a robust system of tariff exclusions to meet its commitments under the agreement, and the United States instituted some of its own.By comparison, in 2019, steep Chinese retaliatory tariffs caused US goods exports to China to drop sharply by 11.4 percent. That year, services exportsthe data for which lag a year behindalso fell, dropping for the first time since 2003. Still, combined exports of goods and services to China supported a significant number of American jobs in 2019.Goods exports to China bounced back in 2020.US goods exports to China grew by roughly 18$123 biUionUS goods exports to China, 2020¢54中billionpercent, marking a sizable rally from a neardecade low in 2019. A total of 278 out of 435 districts saw growth in goods exports to China, and 72 saw growth of over $100 million.Chinese tariff exclusions in support of Phase OneUS services exports to China, 2019billionUS goods exports to China, 2019trade commitments helped fuel the recovery.i驼帘目E微（Wa mor normal flow of goods from the United States despite both countries maintaining heightened tariffs on each other' s goods. China established these exclusions to support its Phase One commitments to purchase high volumes of US energy, manufacturing, and agricultural products. With the Phase One purchase916,000commitmentsexpiringattheendof2021,itisunclearwhetherChinawillmaintainitstariffexclusions.Absentthefullremovaloftariffsbybothsides,itisunlikelythatUSexportstoChinawillmaintainmomentumoverthelongterm.MostUSdistrictsexportedfewerservicestoChinain2019thanin2018.Afteryearsof.slowinggrowth,servicesexportstoChinafellby3percentacrosstheUnitedStates,withonly42districtsseeinganincrease.ServicesexportstoChinahavetraditionallybeenastrongpointforUSexportexpansion,registeringtriple-digitgrowthoverthepastdecade.Thedeclinein2019canbelargelyattributedtofewertravelexportstoChina,whichencapsulatepersonalandbusinesstravelaswellastravelforeducationalpurposes,suchasenrollingatUSuniversities.ChinaistheUnitedStates'third-largestmarketforgoodsexportsandfourthlargestforservicesexports.Despitebilateraltensions,thereboundofgoodsexportstoChinahashelpedthecountrymaintainitsrankingastheUnitedStates'third-largestmarket.RegardingUSservicesexports,declinesin2019causedChinatoslipfromthird-largesttoIourth-Iargestservicesmarket,fallingjustshortofIreland.ExportstoChinabenefitawidearrayofAmericanindustries.ThetopUSgoodsexportstoChinaareoilseedsandgrains,semiconductorsandtheircomponentry,oilandgas,andmotorvehicles.Manydistricts,particularlythosethatrepresentlargemetropolitanareas,collegetowns,orlogisticshubs,alsogeneratesubstantialeconomicvaluefromserviceexportssuchastravel,education,andshipping.MethodologyThisyear'SeditionoftheUS-ChinaBusinessCouncil'sDistrictExportReportdrawsondataobtainedfromTheTradePartnership,aneconomicresearchfirm.ThereportprovidesabreakdownofeachUScongressionaldistrictsgoodsandservicesexportstoChina,andthenationalexporttotalsincludetheexportdataforeachdistrict.GoodsexportfiguresareprimarilybasedondatafromtheUSCensusBureau,theUSDepartmentofAgriculture,andMoody'sAnalytics.GoodsexportfiguresareclassifiedaccordingtotheUSgovernment'sNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem.ServicesexportfiguresareprimarilybasedondatafromtheUSBureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA)andMoody1sAnalytics.ServicesexportfiguresareclassifiedaccordingtoBEAcategories.Thisyear'seditionoftheDistrictExportReportusesthesamesectorcategoriesforgoodsandservicesaslastyear's.Goodsexportscover2011-2020;servicesexportscover2010-2019,themostrecentyearforwhichdetailedBEAdataareavailable.Becausehistoricaldatafromeachofthesesourcesarerevisedannually,thiseditionoftheDistrictExportReportreplacesallprioreditions.Asinpreviouseditions,thisreportusesamethodologythatcreditsagriculturalexportstodistrictsinwhichcropsaregrownasopposedtodistrictswithlargeportswherebulkcommoditiesareaggregatedpriortoexport.Averageannualgrowthiscalculatedwithanaverageannualgrowthrateformula.Adetailedexplanationofthemethodologyinformingourestimatesofgoodsexports,servicesexports,andjobsisavailableonTheTradePartnership'sWebS让e.SponsorsCATERPIlLAlrAmwgflCargill三r-CHI'坪EConocoPhillipsWalmart*USGoodsExportstoChina(billionsUSD)GrowthintotalUSgoodsexports,2011-2020ExportstoChina:19.6%Exportstotherestoftheworld:-6%USgoodsexportstoChinaexperiencedastrongrecoverylastyearIn2019,attheheightofUS-Chinatariffescalations,theUnitedStatesexportedjustunder$105billioningoodstoChina.Lastyear,afterChinainstitutedtariffexclusionstomeetPhaseOnepurchasecommitments,thatnumberjumpedto$123billion,thesecond-highestamountinadecade.Thiswasdespitetheworldbeinginthemiddleofapandemic.Oilandgas,oilseedsandgrains,andsemiconductorsandtheircomponentrywereallmajordriversofgrowth.GrowthinUSgoodsexportstoChinalastyearsignificantlyoutpacedgrowthinexportstotherestoftheworldExportstoChinaincreasedbyroughly18percenti2020,whileexportstotherestoftheworldfellby15percent.ThisdisparityislikelytheresultofChinaoutpacingtherestoftheworldinitsrecoveryfromthepandemic-inducedslowdown.$17.2 billion $12,0 billion $9.2 billion $6.0 billion $6.0 billionTopUSGoodsExportstoChina,20201. Oilseeds&grains2. Semiconductors&components3. Oil&gas4. Motorvehicles5. Nav.&meas.instrumentsTopUSGoodsExportMarkets,2020MarketTotal($billion)Growth(2019-2020)Avg.AnnualGrowth(2011-2020)1.Canada$243.6-14.0%-1.0%2.Mexico$206.1-17.1%+1.2%3.China$123.1+17.7%+2.4%4.Japan$62.6-13.7%0.0%5.Germany$55.1-3.3%+1.8%6.UnitedKingdom$54.0-13.4%+1.0%7.SouthKorea$50.3-9.3%+2.2%8.Netherlands$44.1-11.3%+1.1%9.Brazil$34.2-18.0%-1.3%10.Taiwan$29.5-2.5%+1.9% ChinaremainedtheUnitedStates'third-largestgoodsexportmarketin2020. ThestarkcontrastbetweenthegrowthinexportstoChinaandthattotherestoftheUnitedStates'toptradingpartnersin2020canbelargelyattributedtoChia,srecoveringfromthepandemic-inducedslowdownmorequicklythantherestoftheworld. Onaverage,USgoodsexportstoChinahavebeengrowingby2.4percentperyearforthelastdecade,whichisfasterthantherestoftheUnitedStates'topgoodsmarkets.TopUSDistrictsExportingGoodstoChina,2020DistrictExportsGrowth(2019-2020)Growth(2011-2020)1V/JL/V*J1.Oregon1st$7.5billion+36.2%+377.0%2.California17th$2.5billion-25.0%+52.7%3.Texas7th$2.0billion+130.2%+367.0%4.TexasIlth$1.5billion+132.9%+449.0%5.SouthCarolina4th$1.4billion-14.7%+38.1%6.Iowa4th$1.3billion+85.3%+34.3%7.NewJersey1st$1.2billion+260.3%+457.6%8.Alaska$1.2billion+37.5%-20.4%9.Nevada2nd$1.1billion+167.4%+224.3%10.Texas18th$1.1billion+84.9+68.511.Minnesota7th$1.0billion+66.5%+31.5%12.Nebraska3rd$1.0billion+91.5%+8.7%13.Kansas1st$1.0billion+157.8+87.1%14.SouthDakota$970million+86.9%+68.7%15.Texas36th$946million+65.8%+3.9%ChangeinGoodsExportstoChina(2019-2020)MostdistrictssawhealthygrowthingoodsexportstoChinain2020Ofthe278districtsthatexportedmoretoChinain2020thantheyearprior,twosawexportsincreasebymorethan$1billionandanother70sawthemincreasebymorethan$100million.Chinawasalsoamongthetopfivemarketsforthemajorityofdistricts.Icertainsectors,suchasagricultureandfossilfuels,ChinesetariffexclusionsinsupportofPhaseOnecommitmentsallowedChinesebuyerstoresumeimportingfromtheUnitedStatesbasedonmarket-drivendemandaftertwoyearsofChineseretaliatorytariffs.However,districtsthatrelyheavilyonexportsofaerospaceproductsandpartssawtheirgoodsexportstoChinadecrease,isomecasesforthesecondyearinarow.TexasandLouisianadistrictsseereboundsinoilandgassalesFormanyofthesedistricts,oilandgassalestoChinain2020rosedramaticallyovertheyearbefore.InTexas'S7thDistrict,partofHouston,exportstoChinajumpedbymorethan$1billioninthelastyearofdata,drivenalmostexclusivelybyoilandgas.Similarly,inthestate'sIlthDistrict,whichisstretchedacrossthevastPermianBasin1an$845millionjumpingoodsexportstoChinawaspoweredbyfossilfuelsales.InneighboringLouisiana,the1stDistrictsawexportsofoilandgastoChinamorethantriple,whilethe3rdDistrict,whichbordersTexas,sawitsexportsofoilandgasdouble.ThesesalesweredriveninpartbySiqnifiCarnlyhigherPUrChaSeSin2020fromChinesestate-ownedfirmsaimingtofulfillpurchasecommitmentsunderthePhaseOnetradedeal.SiliconForestchipexportssurgeatamomentofgeopoliticaltensionSemiconductorsandtheircomponentsmakeupthesecond-largestcategoryofgoodsexportedtoChina,andmorethanhalfcomefromOregon'S1stDistrict.HometoaswathoffactoriesdubbedSiliconForest,thedistrictsawitsexportstoChinajumpbynearly$2billionin2020,drivenmostlybyboomingexportsofsemiconductors.WhiletheseexportssupportAmericanindustryandemployment,thesurgewaslikelyduetoChinesecompaniesstockpilingchipsinresponsetoandinanticipationofrestrictiveUSpoliciesthatthreatentocutofftheiraccess.sSoybean,wheat,andcornexportsfromtheheartlandbouncedbackChinawentonapurchasingspreeofUSagriculturalproductsin2020,leadingtoarecord-breakingyearinanattempttosatisfyitscommitmenttopurchaseasignificantamountofUSthesegoodsover2020and2021.Forexample,USexportsofsoybeansincreasedby77percentinjustoneyear.Thisalsocameduringaspikeindemandfortheseexports,whichareusedasanimalfeed,asChina'spigherdrecoveredfromAfricanSwineFever,adiseasethathaswipedoutmillionsofChina'spigssince2018.WhileChinaonlySatiSfind82percentofitstargetforagriculturalpurchasesi2020,thesignificantjumpinpurchasesmadepossiblebytariffexclusionsboostedtheexportsofagriculture-orientedstates,suchasNorthandSouthDakota.Nebraska,Kansas,Minnesota,andIowa.Nebraska's3rdDistrictsawitsgoodsexportstoChinadoublein2020.BothDakotas,whoseexportstoChinaaremostlycomprisedofoilseedsandgrains,increasedtheirgoodsexportsbymorethan$440million.AirplaneexportstoChinaplummetedSouthCarolina,Washington,andKentuckyweresomeoftheoutlierswhenitcametotheirgoodsexportstoChinain2020.In2019,aerospaceproductsandpartswereSouthCarolina's6thDistrict'stopexporttoChina;at$2.4billion,theydwarfedthedistrict'ssecond-largestexport,motorvehicles.In2020,thedistrict'sexportsofaerospaceproductsfelldramatically,bymorethan99percent,to$2.8million.Ontheothersideofthecountry,Washington's2ndDistrict,onceamajorexporterofaerospaceproductstoChina,exported$1billionlessofgoodstoChinain2020thani2019,andthisafterhavingfallenby73percenttheyearprior.ThedataforWashington's9thDistrictandKentucky's6thDistrict,alsoaerospacehubs,tellasimilarstory.USServicesExportstoChina(billionsUSD)$55.8GrowthintotalUSservicesexports,2010-2019ExportstoChina:161.9%Exportstotherestoftheworld:46.1%USservicesexportstoChinacontractedin2019,thefirsttimeinadecadeGrowthinservicesexportstoChinahasbeenslowingforseveralyears.In2019,themostrecentfullyearofdata,servicesexportsfellslightlytojustover$54billion.ContractionsinexportsofindustrialprocessesanddecliningnumbersofChinesetravelerstotheUnitedStatesforbusiness,pleasure,andeducationhelpedfuelthedecline.Thatsaid,servicesexportstoChinahavemorethandoubledoverthelastdecade.Chinawasnottheonlyservicesexportmarketindeclinein2019Overall,USservicesexportstotheworldincreasedbyananemic1percentin2019,comparedtoabout5percentin2018.ServicesexportstotheUnitedKingdomandCanada,thetoptwopurchasersofUSservices,alsofellbyamarginsimilartoChina's.TopUSServicesExportstoChina,20191.Travel(education)$14.0billion2.Travel(otherpersonal)$9.4billion3.Industrialprocesses$3.7billion4.Travel(business)$3.6billion5.Passengerfares$2.3billionTopUSServicesExportMarkets,2019MarketTotal($billion)Growth(2019-2020)Avg.AnnualGrowth(2011-2020)1.UnitedKingdom$77.8-2.7%3.9%2.Canada$67.1-1.9%2.0%3.Ireland$57.5÷11.7%9.5%4.China$54.1-3.0%11.6%5.Japan$49.0+7.5%1.5%6.Switzerland$46.8+11.9%8.9%7.UKIslands,Caribbean$39.8+3.6%8.4%8.Germany$36.3+1.8%3.7%9.Mexico$32.4-0.6%3.7%10.Brazil$24.3-8.7%4.0%Note:Full-yearservicesexportdataareavailableonlythroughyear-end2019.ChinafellfromtheUnitedStates'third-tofourth-largestservicesexportmarket,mostlyduetonearly12percentgrowthinexportstoIreland,whichtookthethirdspot.OftheUnitedStates'top10servicesexportmarketsin2019,Chinahadthehighestaverageannualgrowthrateoverthepreviousdecade:11.6percent.Bycomparison,thetoptwomarketsoftheUnitedKingdomandCanadahavegrownbyanaverageoflessthan4percentsince2011.TopUSDistrictsExportingServicestoChina,2019DistrictExportsGrowth(2018-2019)Growth(2010-2019)1.NewYorkIOth$1.4billion+2.4%+280.7%2.NewYork12th$1.4billion÷2.9%+149.2%3.Massachusetts7th$877million+1.8%+309.6%4.Illinois5th$806million+9.5%+206.2%5.California12th$649million+2.4%+207.4%6.California33rd$616million-1.9%+265.9%7.Washington7th$560million+4.9%+122.4%8.California47th$547million-11.9%+14.8%9.Georgia5th$463million+1.0%+136.5%10.California43rd$459million+8.6%+150.3%11.DistrictofColumbia$455million+1.9%+202.9%12.Washington9th$433million+11.5%+105.3%13.California37th$422million-0.3%+334.5%14.California18th$421million-2.2%+224.8%15.California17th$418million-3.9%+231.1%ChangeinServicesExportstoChina(2018-2019)-S10M÷S10MWidespreaddeclinesinservicesexportstoChinaaffectedmostcongressionaldistrictsIn2019,followingyearsofslowinggrowth,USservicesexportstoChinafellforthefirsttimeinadecade.Atthedistrictlevel,thedecreaseswerewidespread;85percentofallcongressionaldistricts5servicesexportstoChinadecreasedby$1millionormore.Further,only42outof435congressionaldistrictsexportedmoreservicestoChinain2019thanintheyearprior.Thoseincreaseswereconcentratedinjustafew,ifany.districtsperstateandtendedtoreflectstrongexportsofshippingservicesorsizableeducationexportsintheformofuniversitytuitionpaidbyChinesestudents.UStravelexportstoChinahistoricallytheUnitedStates'largestservicesexporttoChinafellby10percentin2019,suggestingthatChinesecitizens,includingtourists,students,andbusinesstravelers,areeithercomingtotheUnitedStatesinsmallernumbersorarespendinglesswhiletheyareinthecountry.Thedeclineintr