McKinsey-能源行业分析.ppt

txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGY,Energy is Key.Now,October 22,2001,This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey it is not a complete record of the discussion.,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,1,TODAYS DISCUSSION,Capital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,2,LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT,AND GETTING MORE SO,Note:Number of exits averaged over twenty year periodSource:McKinsey analysis,1935,1955,1975,1995,2005E,The S&P 500 is a brutal,unemotional yardstick of performanceThe pace of change is accelerating,Implied lifetime in S&P 500 based on company exits in years,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,3,MARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERM,Overall performance of S&P 500 would have been,if it were made up of those companies on the list in 1957,about 20%less per year,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,4,HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE McKINSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DATABASE(PDB)PDB overview,Energy sectors,Financial data(60 items)for 1,067 companies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000*,Industry,Number of companies,Airlines,23,Commodity Chemicals,36,Specialty Chemicals,47,Defense,28,Medical Supplies,66,Software,171,Paper,47,Pharmaceuticals,101,Soap,24,Transportation,25,Semiconductors,55,Utilities,104,Oil,170,Telecommunications,55,IndustriesInteresting dynamics to analyze More than 10 players with 50%of sales in the relevant SIC category Companies U.S.-basedBelonged to a predetermined SIC code Obtained at least 50%of their sales from specified SIC code(“pure-play”)Had a market cap within the top 80%of all market cap values Companies that IPOed in last 4 years met both market cap and pure play criteria for the last 2 yearsCompanies were removed only when they merged,got acquired or went bankrupt,Selection criteria,Total,Energy subtotal,274,1,067,*Currently 2000 data has been updated only for high tech companiesSource:McKinseys long-term performance database,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,5,Source:McKinsey performance database,ACROSS ALL MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS,NONE HAS EXHIBITED SUSTAINED OUTPERFORMANCE.,Economy normal range,Pharmaceuticals,Defence,Telecom,Toiletries,7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Select industries vs.economy,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,6,Source:McKinsey performance database,.IN FACT,MANY INDUSTRIES RARELY OR NEVER OUTPERFORM,Airlines,Paper,Commodity Chemicals,Specialty Chemicals,7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Select industries vs.economy,Economy normal range,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,7,IF YOURE A SURVIVOR,YOUVE PROBABLY UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET,*Companies that were on the first S&P 500 list in 1957 and remained on the list through 1995Source:McKinsey analysis,McKinsey corporate performance database,7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders:Long-term survivors vs.economy,Economy normal range(90%confidence band),Economy return,Economy survivors*,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,8,OUTPERFORMANCE COMES FROM ATTACKERS,*Three year rolling average 1962-95Source:McKinsey analysis;McKinsey corporate performance database,Years in sample,TRS relative to industry average,1,5,10,15,20,-10%,-5%,0%,5%,10%,15%,25,Survivors curse,Total return to shareholders relative to industry of“new entrants”into top 80%by market cap*,Attackers advantage,.becomes,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,9,SURVIVORS UNDERPERFORM BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO CREATE,INNOVATE,AND EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGH,The survivors mental model focuses on protecting the core businessSurvivors are paralyzed by fear ofProduct cannibalizationCustomer conflictDilutive acquisition,Survivors suffer from cultural lock-in,Sales,Time,Vision,ideas,passion,Inability to innovate,Focus on operations,Denial,Rationality,Creation and innovation,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,10,Stock price CAGR 44%(vs.S&P CAGR 13%)#2 online broker with 20%of total online retail brokerage market accounts,Launches online trading,Schwab assembles secret development team,CREATING OPTIONS:CANNIBALIZING DIRECT CHANNELS AT SCHWAB,Online trading becomes core business,Source:Literature search,company reports,Bloomberg,McKinsey analysis,Percent change in stock price since Jan 92,Schwab,S&P 500,S&P Finance,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,11,Source:Datastream,company reports,Literature search,Divested paper,rubber,Acquired mobile phone manufacturer,Divested cable and machine divisions,Divested power,Divested cable machinery and Nokia tires,Divested televisions,chemicals and cables,Stock price CAGR 63%(vs.S&P CAGR 13%)#1 world market share of cell phones(32%),Divested data operations,DESTROYING:NOKIA FROM CONGLOMERATE TO WORLDS LARGEST PHONE MANUFACTURER,Percent change in stock price since Jan 90,Nokia,S&P 500,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,12,TODAYS DISCUSSION,Capital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,13,As expected in a regulated industry,utilities closely track the general economyOil was hit hard in the 80s,but has been steadily recovering,PETROLEUM AND UTILITIES VS.THE ECONOMY,Utilities,Oil,7-year rolling average of normalized TRS,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,14,In the long run,none of the player classes delivers significant returns beyond the economy as a wholeHowever,returns for Independents and OFSEs appear to be more sensitive to oil price swings,PETROLEUM PLAYER CLASS PERFORMANCE VS.THE S&P 500,Majors,Independents,OFSEs,7-year rolling average of normalized TRS,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,15,INNOVATION IN ENERGY,EnronDynegyEl PasoKinder Morgan,Company,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,16,RELIANT TRANSFORMATION OF A REGULATED UTILITY,Local utility,New business model experimentation,1882-1995Founded as utility to service local Houston marketEntered and exited utility fuels businessEntered cable TV(1986)Acquired interests in South America(1992),1995-2000Entered IPP marketPlants in California,IndiaEntered power and gas trading(Currently#4 in gas,#3 in power)Invested in telecommunications and e-commerce(REI Communications,GuideS)Exited South American operations and Cable TV,2000-Created two distinct businessesRegulated distributionUnregulated wholesale power and gas,Source:Hoovers;analyst reports;press releases,Business separation,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,17,THE REINVENTION OF BP,Portfolio pruning,Business model innovation,Attacking through consolidation,1985-92Divested noncore lines of businessNutrition(BP Nutrition)Computing Services(Scicon)Coal(BP Coal)Minerals(Selection Trust)Acquired strategic core assetsSohioBritoil,1992-98Performance-driven business unitsPeer group/collaborative performance managementOutsourced noncore functions(accounting,IT),1998AmocoARCOVastarBurma CastrolVeba,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,18,INNOVATION IN THE OIL INDUSTRY,HalliburtonAnadarkoSchlumbergerCore Labs,Company,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,19,TODAYS DISCUSSION,Capital markets:ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,20,CAN HOUSTON BUILD AN INNOVATION NETWORK?,The value of the network is clear:Increased cross pollination of ideasSpecialized talent flowBetter flow of smart capital Challenging,but supportive environment,Increase and growth in software companies,Challenging competition among peers,Supporting infrastructure,Demanding,participative customers,Talented,entrepreneurial employees,Elements of Silicon Valleys self-reinforcing network,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,21,WHAT ROLE CAN LEADERS TAKE TO INCREASE FOCUS ON HOUSTON?,Public energy policy,Government funding,Talent,New companies,txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt,22,WHAT AVENUES CAN LEADERS EXPLOIT TO DRIVE HOUSTONS INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL?,HoustonTechnologyCenter,CorporateR&D,Localuniversities,Government research,Industryconsortia,