巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第14章.ppt

Macroeconomics Chapter 14,1,Public Debt,C h a p t e r 1 4,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,2,The History of U.S.and U.K.Public Debt,The nominal quantity of interest-bearing debt and the ratio of this debt to nominal GDP,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,3,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,4,The History of U.S.and U.K.Public Debt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,5,The History of U.S.and U.K.Public Debt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,6,The Data of Chinese Public Debt,From 1981(中国市场统计年鉴2001年7-27)1990 890.34 1991 1059.99 1992 1282.72 1993 1540.74 1994 2286.40 1995 3300.30 1996 4361.43 1997 5508.93 1998 7765.70 1999 10542.00 2000 13674.00 2008年6月末中央财政国债总余额为52385.86亿元，控制在年末55185.85亿元国债余额限额以内(2008年上半年国债管理报告)财政部部长助理张通9日表示，2009年财政政策较大幅度增加中央财政赤字，并相应增加国债发行规模，中央财政国债余额限额为62708.35亿元。(2009年04月09日 16:02来源：中国新闻网),Macroeconomics Chapter 14,7,Characteristics of Government Bonds,We assume that government bonds pay interest and principal in the same way as private bonds.We assume that bondholders(households in our model)regard government bonds as equivalent to private bonds.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,8,Characteristics of Government Bonds,total bond holdings=Bt+Bgttotal bond holdings=private bonds+government bondsBt=0 still holds in the aggregate.total bond holdings of all households=Bgt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,9,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Governments Budget ConstraintGt+Vt=Tt+(Mt Mt1)/PtThe real value of these interest payments,it1(Bgt1/Pt)adds to the governments expenditure or uses of funds on the left-hand side of the governments budget constraint.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,10,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Governments Budget ConstraintGt+Vt+it1(Bgt1/Pt)=Tt+(Bgt Bg t1)/Pt+(MtMt1)/Ptreal purchases+real transfers+real interest payments=real taxes+real debt issue+real revenue from money creation,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,11,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,When nominal money,Mt,and the price level,Pt,do not change over time,the governments budget constraint becomes.Gt+Vt+rt1Bgt1/P=Tt+(Bgt Bg t1)/P,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,12,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Budget Deficitreal government saving=(Bgt Bgt1)/P,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,13,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Budget Deficit(Bgt Bgt1)/P=Tt【Gt+Vt+rt1Bgt1/P】real government saving=real taxes real government expenditure,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,14,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,The Budget Deficitthe governments revenue exceeds its expenditure,and the government has a budget surplus.the government has a balanced budget,and the governments real saving is zero.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,15,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,16,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Public Saving,Private Saving,and National Savingreal household saving(economy-wide)=Kt Kt1+(Bgt Bgt1)/Preal national saving=Kt Kt1,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,17,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Households multiyear budget constraintC1+C2/(1+r1)+=(1+r0)(B0/P+K0)+(w/P)1Ls1+(w/P)2 Ls2/(1+r1)+(V1 T1)+(V2 T2)/(1+r1)+(V3 T3)/(1+r1)(1+r2)+,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,18,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,multiyear household budget constraint with government bondsC1+C2/(1+r1)+=(1+r0)(B0/P+Bg0/P+K0)+(w/P)1Ls1+(w/P)2 Ls2/(1+r1)+(V1 T1)+(V2 T2)/(1+r1)+(V3 T3)/(1+r1)(1+r2)+,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,19,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalencer0=r1=r2=r.Mt,and Pt,do not change over time.Real transfers,Vt,are zero each year.the government has a given time path of purchases,Gt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,20,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian EquivalenceGovernment Budget ConstraintGt+r Bgt1/P=Tt+(BgtBgt1)/Pthe government starts with Bg0/P=0.In year 1：G1=T1+Bg1/P,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,21,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian EquivalenceSuppose,to begin,that the government balances its budget each year.Then in year1 G1=T1Continuing on,if the government balances its budget every year,Bgt/P,=0 in every year t.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,22,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalencenow the government runs a real budget deficit of one unit?the deficit must come from a cut in real taxes,T1,by one unit.the real deficit of one unit requires the government to issue one unit of real public debt at the end of year 1Bg1/P=1.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,23,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian EquivalenceAssume Bg2/P=Bg3/P=0.G2+rBg1/P=T2+(Bg2Bg1)/PBg1/P=1 and Bg2/P=0G2+r=T2 1T2=G2+1+r,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,24,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian Equivalencedecrease in year 1s real taxes+present value of increase in year 2s taxes=1+(1+r)/(1+r)=1+1=0,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,25,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,A Simple Case of Ricardian EquivalenceIf the government replaces a unit of real taxes with a unit of real budget deficit,households know that the present value of next years real taxes will rise by one unit.Thus,the real budget deficit is the same as a real tax in terms of the overall present value of real taxes.This finding is the simplest version of the Ricardian equivalence theorem on the public debt.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,26,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Another Case of Ricardian EquivalenceG2+rBg1/P=T2+(Bg2Bg1)/PBg2/P=Bg1/P=1G2+r=T2,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,27,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Ricardian Equivalence More GenerallyC1+C2/(1+r1)+=(1+r0)(B0/P+Bg0/P+K0)+(w/P)1Ls1+(w/P)2 Ls2/(1+r1)+(V1 T1)+(V2 T2)/(1+r1)+(V3 T3)/(1+r1)(1+r2)+,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,28,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Ricardian Equivalence More Generallyt=1:T1 decreases 1t=2:T2 increases rt=3:T3 increases r we find again that the deficit-financed tax cut in year 1 has no income effects on households.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,29,Budget Constraints and Budget Deficits,Ricardian Equivalence More GenerallyIf the time path of Gt is given(and if Vt=0),we can show that a higher Bg0/P requires the government to collect a correspondingly higher present value of real taxes,Tt,to finance the debt.This higher present value of real taxes exactly offsets the higher Bg0/P.Thus,we still have no income effects on households.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,30,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,What happens in the equilibrium business-cycle model when the government cuts year 1s real taxes,T1,and runs a budget deficit?Economists often refer to this type of change as a simulative fiscal policy.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,31,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Lump-Sum Taxesthe cut in year 1s real taxes,T1,and the increases in future real taxes,Tt,all involve lump-sum taxes.no substitution effects on consumption and labor supply.We have found in our equilibrium business-cycle model that a deficit-financed tax cut does not stimulate the economy.In particular,real GDP,Y,gross investment,I,and the real interest rate,r,do not change,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,32,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Labor Income TaxesThe fall in T1 is accompanied by a decline in(w)1.The changes in marginal income tax rates,(w)1 and(w)2,affect the labor market in years 1 and 2.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,33,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,34,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,35,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Labor Income TaxesThe increase in(w)2 lowers labor supply in year 2.This decrease in labor supply leads,when the labor market clears,to a lower quantity of labor,(L2).The reduced labor input leads to a decrease in year 2s real GDP,Y2.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,36,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Labor Income Taxesa budget deficit allows the government to change the timing of labor input and production.A budget deficit that finances a cut in year 1s tax rate on labor income motivates a rearrangement of the time pattern of work and productiontoward the present(year 1)and away from the future(year 2).,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,37,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Asset Income Taxeschanges in the timing of asset-income tax rates cause changes in the timing of consumption,C,and investment,I.The general point is that,by running budget deficits or surpluses,the government can induce changes in the timing of various aspects of economic activity:L,Y,C,and I.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,38,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The Timing of Taxes and Tax-Rate SmoothingWe have found that budget deficits and surpluses allow the government to change the timing of tax rates.However,it would not be a good idea for the government randomly to make tax rates high in some years and low in others.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,39,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The public debt has typically been managed to maintain a pattern of reasonably stable tax rates over time.This behavior is called tax-rate smoothing.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,40,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Strategic Budget DeficitsThis view of the Reagan-Bush budget deficits after 1983 gave rise to a new theory called strategic budget deficits.The word“strategic”is used because the models involve political strategies analogous to those analyzed in game theory.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,41,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Ricardian equivalence-a deficit-finance tax cut does not affect real GDP and other macroeconomic variables.The Standard View of a Budget Deficita deficit-financed tax cut makes households feel wealthier,consumption,C1,increases。,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,42,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The Standard View of a Budget Deficityear 1s inputs of labor and capital services stay the same,and real GDP,Y1 does not change.Since C1 increases,gross investment,I1,has to decline for given government purchases,G1.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,43,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,The Standard View of a Budget DeficitThese long-term negative effects on capital stock and real GDP are sometimes described as a burden of the public debt,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,44,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Finite lifetimesThe decrease in the present value of real taxes for current generations coincides with an increase in the present value of real taxes for members of future generations.Individuals will be born with a liability for a portion of taxes to pay the interest and principal on the higher stock of real public debt.These people will not share in the benefits from the earlier tax cut.Present taxpayers would not feel wealthier if they counted fully the present value of the prospective taxes on descendants.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,45,Economic Effects of a Budget Deficit,Imperfect credit marketsWhen credit markets are imperfect,some households will calculate present values of future real taxes by using a real interest rate above the governments rate.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,46,Social Security,Retirement benefits paid through social security programs are substantial in the United States and most other developed countries.Feldstein argues that these public pension programs reduce saving and investment.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,47,Social Security,Social security is not a fully funded system.workers payments accumulate in a trust fund,which later provides for retirement benefits.pay-as-you-go system,in which benefits to elderly persons are financed by taxes on the currently young.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,48,Social Security,economic effects of social security in a pay-as-you-go system.When a social security system starts or expands,elderly persons experience an increase in the present value of their social security benefits net of taxes.The increase in the present value of real transfers net of real taxes implies a positive income effect on the consumption of this group.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,49,Social Security,economic effects of social security in a pay-as-you-go system.Young persons face higher taxes,offset by the prospect of higher retirement benefits.the fall in consumption by the currently young tends to be smaller in size than the increase for the currently old.we predict an increase in current aggregate consumption.Or,to put it another way,total private saving declines.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,50,Social Security,The decline in national saving leads in the short run to a decrease in investment and,in the long run,to a reduced stock of capital.,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,51,Open-Market Operations,Open-market operations.An open-market purchase occurs when the central bank,such as the Federal Reserve,buys bondstypically government bondswith newly created money.an open-market purchase has the same effects as the unrealistic helicopter drop of money,Macroeconomics Chapter 14,52,Open-Market Operations,