国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货-黄金的期货分析.ppt

黄金的期货分析,第四组：杨翔渊，金莹，李艳梅，邓艳，田一秀，赵博超,商务英语061班,Price：,27th may 2009Contract period of Shanghai Gold Price209 yuan per ton,Supply,The newly yielded gold from mining long period of investment and high cost of mining production slightly decreased Central bank selling gold Central Bank Gold Agreementlimit the quantity reducing selling for safety,Demand,Gold manufacturing jewelry and electronicsincreasing International reserve Monetary gold increasingInvestment demand Gold ETF,Conclusion of supply and demand,Go short in short term Go long in long term,3、Relevant foreign futures products-COMEX&TOCOM,Closing price of gold future on June 8,COMEX(Unit:dollars per ounce)-Contract Open High Low Close Change Volume Position June2009(GLNM)951.2 953.8 944.4 951.7-10 464 2580 July2009(GLNN)950.1 953.9 943.6 951.9-10.1 497 753 Aug2009(GLNQ)950.9 953 943.8 952.5-10.1 86348 248688 Oct2009(GLNV)950.5 955.3 945.9 953.9-10.1 1566 12480 Dec2009(GLNZ)954.1 957.7 947.7 955.4-10.1 2482 44816 Feb2010(GLNG)955.9 955.9 955.9 957.4-9.9 33 15298 Apr2010(GLNJ)958.7 961.5 951.1 959.4-9.7 1344 15488-Tips:1ounce=31.1035gramsConclusion:closing price of gold dropped on June 8,COMEX.,Statistical data of gold inventory on June 8,COMEX-Variety Gold Silver CopperRegistration warehouse 2,610,242 64,143,958 56,723receipt Change-20,286 hold the linehold the lineNon-registrationwarehouse 6,089,397 54,612,095 763receipt Change-1,827 261,184 247Stock grand 8,699,639 118,756,053 57,486total Change-22,113-(Unit:Gold-ounce;Sliver-ounce;Copper-short ton)Conclusion：Inventory of gold is decreasing.,Gold futures market on June 9,TOCOM-Contract Closing price OpenHighLow Close ChangeVolume of yesterdayJune2009 3,020 3,015 3,0152,9813,000-20 104Aug2009 3,026 3,015 3,0162,9873,000-25 97Oct2009 3,028 3,021 3,0212,9873,000-25 115Dec2009 3,030 3,023 3,0232,9893,009-21 517Feb2010 3,034 3,027 3,0292,9943,012-21 5,004Apr2010 3,036 3,029 3,0322,9963,016-20 22,775Total 28,612-Tips:Unit：yen per gram；Conclusion:closing price of gold dropped on June 9,TOCOM.,1year,US,GDPThe first quarter of 2009 the U.S.GDP fell 6.1%,stuck in the largest recession since the Great Depression.And the fact indicated that the global economy situation is still grim.,PPI,U.S.Labor Department data released Thursday showed increases of April PPI,higher than expected,promoted by significant increase of food prices.But because the economic recession weakened the companys pricing power,the core PPI of April only maintained a moderate increase.Data show that the manufactured goods PPI in United States rose 0.3%.March PPI fell 1.2%.Economists had forecasted it.,CPI,CPI Year decline in the U.S.hit a record since 1955The U.S.Labor Department data released yesterday shows that,in March of this year over the past year,the United States consumer prices fell by 0.4%for the largest decline since 1955.March CPI dropped 0.1%.,China,GDPChinas first quarter of this year gross domestic product(GDP)over the same period increased by only 6.1%,indicating a very depressed economy.With the weak economy,the weak demand caused by international financial crisis,coupled with continued high bubble of house prices and the unprospected domestic Chinese stock market,investment and financing of businesses and individuals have been seriously affected,resulting in declining of consumption,abnormal development of economy and the many hardships of life.In this case the price decline will occur naturally,PPI,CPI,May 11,the National Bureau of Statistics announced in April the principal macro-economic data,CPI fell 1.5%,PPI fell 6.6%compared with the same period last year.,The Europe,GDPFirst quarter:2.5%The euro area GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 is the largest decline in historyThe data released Friday by statistical bureau of the European Union showed that in the fourth quarter of 2008,the economic recession was deepening in the euro-zone,and the gross domestic product(GDP)in this quarter recorded the biggest drop since 1995.,PPI,The PPI drop of March,2009 of the euro-zone broke the record of 22 yearsAccording to the report issued by the European Commission,the euro zone March PPI fell 3.1 percentApril euro-zone producer price index hit an annual rate of decline since 1981,CPI,April:According to the official of statistical bureau in European Union.April CPI rose 0.4%,the lowest annual rate since 1996 as the economists expected.There are 15 countries in the euro area in Aprils inflation rate is lower than in March,of which a minimum of-0.7%in Ireland,Crude oil futures continue a strong rebound.OPEC decided to maintain output quotas unchanged,.NYMEX crude oil contract in July rose 1.89 percent to 66.31 U.S.dollars/barrel,and the June contract is 70 U.S.dollars.,H1N1 epidemic broke out suddenly make the market worried about the process of global economic recovery will be blocked.,General Motors have submitted to the Bankruptcy Court to apply for bankruptcy protection.Its shares fell sharply.GM is expected to announce bankruptcy protection and access to the reorganization.,North Korea situation is deteriorating.the UN Security Council has strongly opposed and condemned for the nuclear test that North Korea conducted.on the 27th,the North Korea issued a statement to withdraw from the Korean War Armistice Agreement in 1953.Tension of war resulted in increases in gold prices several times in the history.,At present,the global economy is at ebb,especially the US,who is the indicator of the world economy.We are not optimistic about it.However,we can see from the data,in short term,the CPI is falling.It leads to the appreciation of the US dollar.As a response,we will do short in the short term.But,as the whole background of weak economy,in the long run,the dollar will turn to weakening.As a result,more and more people will buy gold out of harm avoidance need.So,we think the price of gold will rise,and its beneficial for us to do long.,For the moment,go long with a little amount at low price;In the medium and long term,the market is in the adjustment.,In the short-term：go shortIn the medium-term:go longIn the long-term:go long,In the temporary:go short but not much amountIn the long-term:go long,Strength index RSI,the principle:RSI is a simple method of calculation.it is based on the number of buyers and sellers,find the balance of forces,reflecting market supply and demand of buyers and sellers.For example,100 individuals faced with a commodity,if more than 50 people to buy,bidding competition,commodity prices will rise.Conversely,if more than 50 people racing to sell,prices fell.Strength index theory,any market prices rose or fell,between the changes in the 0-100,in accordance with normal distribution,that the RSI values of more than changes in between 30-70,usually 80 or even 90 when he was that the market has reached overbought status.thus market prices will adjust down.When the price dropped to below 30 are considered oversold.the market will rebound.,Conclusion：,RSI from 80（the overbought status go down to about）50 and continues to go down，so the price has a tendency to fall down,our advice is to go short in the short term,Length of two candles closelysidewaysRSI near 50 sideways,Influence analysis of International futures market to domestic futures market-COMEX Monthly:RSI,KDJ,RSI小于30为超卖状态，若出现W底部形态，为买进机会。,RSI死叉：快速RSI从上往下跌破慢速RSI时是卖出机会。,RSI大于70为超买状态，若出现M顶部形态是卖出机会。,RSI金叉：快速RSI从下往上突破慢速RSI时是买进机会。,空头强势，卖出信号,Market quotations will fall greatly when the K line and the D line alternate in top grade twice.,DK，the current trend is falling down.Thus selling out when K line breaks downward D line.,Conclusion:RSI appears for oscillating instruction,and we can see that the long positions are weakened,the short-sellers strength strengthens.In the high level,KDJ lines are in consolidation.And K line breaks downwards D line,with a trend of death cross,which shows a symbol of selling out.Besides,lets look at the month line from the wave.In April,1999 253 U.S.dollar is the lowest price.After that,6 obvious waves go up.To the last one,5 subsidiary waves can be researched.The strong point,therefore,is the 1034.2 U.S.dollar of March,2008 which reaches the top of the big bull market of 9 years.Though in the beginning of May,2008,golden price goes up greatly,it can be only treated as a rebound.And this rebound will continue for a year.The current market is still in a stage of range bound,with a down trend in the short period.Neither short term nor medium term is propitious to investors.So it is wise for us to go short in the short term.Anyway,the overall trend walks upward,explaining that the general trend is to go up,which indicates that go long in the long term is proper.,The day price has penetrated the resistance line,formed a head and began to decline.As a result,the day price has a tendency to continue falling down.So in short term,go short.,The final conclusion,Summarizing the above the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis,we can make such a conclusion:In the short term,the gold price will fall down.In the long term,the gold price will go high.,Advice,As a result,we shall give such advice:In the short term,go short.In the long term,go long.,