国际期货市场运作5TheVarietyofFuturesMark.ppt

Chapter 5The Variety of Futures Markets,Even though the CBOT was established in 1848,a formal set of rules for trading futures contracts was not written until 1865,which is a more accurate date from which to mark the beginning of futures trading in the United States.,CBOT,Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME),The CME was established in 1919.It traded futures in eggs,butter,cheese,potatoes,and onions until 1945.,Proliferation of Futures Markets,Futures and futures options trading has been growing steadily in volume yearly.This explosive growth has been a natural response to increased price volatility,international instability,growing consumer demand,and unstable global weather conditions.,Hurricane Jeanne,Satellite image(September 26,2004)shows Hurricane Jeanne as the once-powerful storm weakened to a tropical storm while inland in Florida.Hurricane Jeanne peeled off roofs,snapped power lines and left large swaths of coastline knee-deep in water Sunday as it plowed through parts of Florida.,Jim Batson carefully walks across bricks in his living room after An earthquake Tuesday,Sept.28,2004,in Parkfield,Calif.,An earthquake,In 1972 the CME established the International Monetary Market(IMM)division and initiated trading in seven foreign currency futures contracts.,International Markets,How do we develop a currency futures contract?,If I am an automobile distributor,and I place an order for 20 million dollars worth of German cars to be delivered three months,I face the risk that when I pay for the cars the value of the Euro,which I must use to pay the manufacturer,may have gone up in relationship to the dollar.,In other words,when I order the cars,my U.S.dollar is worth a certain number of Euro,a value we will call X.,How do we develop a currency futures contract?,In the event that the Euro has decreased against the U.S.dollar the opposite condition will hold true.,How do we develop a currency futures contract?,How do we develop a currency futures contract?,The Euro might drop in value,meaning I could buy more Euro with U.S.dollars three months hence.,An Overview of Market Sectors,Foreign Currency Futures In order to hedge against fluctuations in currency relationships,a producer can use foreign currency futures as his or her vehicle.,Interest Rate Futures,Interest rate volatility represents a large risk to businesses and investors who count the interest earned or paid on borrowed money as a source of profit or expense.,If I am a banker,for instance,I may want to invest some of my banks assets in government securities.The amount of interest those securities earn will directly affect the profitability of my bank.,Interest Rate Futures,Therefore,volatile interest rates represent a major financial risk to me.I dont want to speculate on what interest rates will be three six,or twelve months from now.,Interest Rate Futures,Stock Index Futures,A person responsible for the assets of a large pension fund or mutual fund who must maintain a productive,well-balanced portfolio of investments understands the risk involved in owning millions of dollars worth of stocks.,After the stock market crash of October 19,1987,that risk became particularly apparent.In 1982 the futures industry responded to the need to hedge such risks by offering the first stock index futures contract,the Value Line Index(an index of 1,700 stocks),at the Kansas City Board of Trade.,Stock Index Futures,Other Futures,Agricultural Futures:Grains,soybeans,and meats.Metal Futures:Silver,gold,copper,platinum(铂),palladium(钯),and aluminum and so on.Energy Futures:petroleum,natural gas,and electricity.Tropical Futures:Coffee,cocoa,sugar,and orange juice.,Since the late 1990s,it has been possible to trade in everything from dried silk cocoon futures to freight futures.,Emerging Futures Markets,Cash Settlement,How does a trader take delivery of a stock index,which has no substance and cannot be seen or touched?The answer is,by cash settlement.,Cash Settlement,In cash settlement,if a futures contract has come due for delivery,the two parties can settle for the difference between the price of the contract that day and the price on the day they first made the contract.,