宏观经济学课件(英文版).ppt

1,Chapter 2National-Income Accounting:Gross Domestic Product and the Price Level,2,Nominal and Real GDP,Nominal GDP measures the dollar(or euro,etc.)value of all the goods and services that an economy produces during a specified period,such as a year.The nominal GDP is a flow concept.,3,Nominal and Real GDP,For most goods and servicespencils,automobiles,haircuts,and so onthe dollar value is determined by the price at which these items sell in the marketplace.Some goods and services,notably those produced by governments,are not exchanged on markets.These items enter into nominal GDP at their nominal(dollar)cost of production.,4,Nominal and Real GDP,Another important item,owner-occupied housing,enters into GDP in accordance with an estimate of what this housing would fetch on the market if the owner rented the property to another person.Imputed rental income,5,Nominal and Real GDP,GDP includes the value of the goods and services produced during a specified time interval,such as a year.That is,GDP measures current production.,6,Nominal and Real GDP,The nominal GDP can be misleading because it depends on the overall level of prices,as well as on the physical quantity of output.,7,Nominal and Real GDP,8,Calculating Real GDP,The most common way to compute real GDP was to multiply each years quantity of output of each good by the price of the good in a base year,such as 2000.Then all of these multiples were added to get the economys aggregate real GDP.,9,Calculating Real GDP,The resulting aggregate is called GDP in 2000 dollars(if 2000 is the base year).Or,sometimes,the result is called GDP in constant dollars.The nominal GDP is sometimes called GDP in current dollars,10,Calculating Real GDP,A shortcoming of this approach is that it weights the outputs of the various goods by their prices in the base year(2000).These weights become less relevant over time as relative prices of goods change.,11,Calculating Real GDP,Chain weighted real GDP,12,Calculating Real GDP,13,Calculating Real GDP,Implicit price level that we are using to convert a dollar value(nominal GDP)/(implicit price level)=real GDP.implicit price level=(nominal GDP)/(real GDP).,14,Calculating Real GDP,For 2006 in case a in Table 2.1,we haveimplicit price level=(550/468.5)=1.17.For 2006 in case b,we haveimplicit price level=(550/639.0)=0.86.,15,Calculating Real GDP,Think of a price index that takes on the value 100 for the base year,which is 2005 in our example.When compared to this base,the price level for 2006 in case a is 1.17*100=117,whereas that in case b is 0.86*100=86.The usual name for these price indexes is the implicit GDP deflator(on a 2005 base).,16,Real GDP as a Measure of Welfare,The aggregate real GDP does not consider changes in the distribution of income.The calculated real GDP excludes most non-market goods.Real GDP assigns no value to leisure time.Measured real GDP does not consider changes in air and water quality,that is,pollution.,17,Alternative Views of GDPExpenditure,Income,and Production,1.Expenditures on domestically produced goods and services by various groupshouseholds,businesses,government,and foreigners.2.Incomes earned domestically in the production of goods and services compensation of employees,rental income,corporate profits,and so on.,18,Alternative Views of GDPExpenditure,Income,and Production,3.Domestic production of goods and services by various industries agriculture,manufacturing,wholesale and retail trade,and so on.All three approaches will end up with the same totals for nominal and real GDP.,19,Measuring GDP by Expenditure,1.Households,2.Businesses,3.All levels of government,4.Foreigners.,20,Measuring GDP by Expenditure,21,Measuring GDP by Expenditure,A closed economy,which has no trade linkages to the rest of the world.An open economy is linked through trade to the rest of the world.,22,Measuring GDP by Expenditure,Some reasons for using a closed economy model:It simplifies the analysis.At least for the United States,exports and imports have been small compared to GDP,so that little error arises from ignoring international trade.The world as a whole really is a closed economy,so we have to carry out a closed-economy analysis to assess the world economy.,23,Measuring GDP by Income,National income.A simple closed economy that has onlytwo businesses.One,a mill,uses only labor to produce flour.The second,a bakery,uses flour and labor to produce bread.Bread is the only final product.Flour is the only intermediate productit is used up entirely in the production of the final good,bread.,24,Measuring GDP by Income,25,Measuring GDP by Income,26,Measuring GDP by Income,In practice,divergences between GDP and national income reflect two main items:income receipts and payments involving the rest of the world and depreciation of capital stocks.,27,Measuring GDP by Income,One source of divergence between GDP and national income is that residents of the United States receive income from the rest of the world.The main item is the income on capital(assets)owned by U.S.residents but located abroad.A secondary part is labor income of U.S.residents working abroad.,28,Measuring GDP by Income,Depreciation of the fixed capital stock located in the United States.,29,Measuring GDP by Income,30,Measuring GDP by Income,Personal income:the income that households receive directly.Disposable personal:personal income after taxes.,31,Measuring GDP by Production,32,Seasonal Adjustment,The national-accounts information reported in the news media and used for most macroeconomic analyses come in this seasonally-adjusted form.,33,Prices,Consumer price index(CPI)Producer price index(PPI),wholesale price index.,34,Problems with the Consumer Price Index,Many economists think that the reported changes in the CPI overstate inflationGrowth rate of the CPI exaggerated inflation on average by over one percentage point per year.,35,CASE STUDY:Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?,The consumer price index is a closely watched measure of inflation.Policymakers in the Federal Reserve monitor the CPI when choosing monetary policy.Because so much depends on the CPI,it is important to ensure that this measure of the price level is accurate.Many economists believe that,for a number of reasons,the CPI tends to overstate inflation.,36,CASE STUDY 3:Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?,One problem is the substitution bias.Because the CPI measures the price of a fixed basket of goods,it does not reflect the ability of consumers to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.Thus,when relative prices change,the true cost of living rises less rapidly than the CPI.,37,CASE STUDY 3:Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?,A second problem is the introduction of new goods.When a new good is introduced into the marketplace,consumers are better off,because they have more products from which to choose.In effect,the introduction of new goods increases the real value of the dollar.,38,CASE STUDY 3:Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?,A third problem is unmeasured changes in quality.,39,CASE STUDY 3:Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?,In 1995,the Senate Finance Committee appointed a panel of five noted to study the magnitude of the measurement error in the CPI.The panel concluded that the CPI was biased upward by 0.8 to 1.6 percentage points per year,with their“best estimate”being 1.1 percentage points.,