国际金融课件-7InternationalMonetarySystem.ppt

Chapter 7 International Monetary System,第一节 国际货币体系概述国际货币体系的涵义国际间进行各种交易支付所采用的一系列安排和惯例；以及支配各国货币关系的一套规则和机构。The channels of interdependence depend,in turn,on the monetary and exchange rate arrangements that countries adopted-a set of institutions called the international monetary system.,Arrangement Categories,国际收支及其调节汇率决定及其变动国际货币或储备资产的数量和形式国际金融市场与资本流动国际货币合作的形式与机构Objects and FunctionsInternal balance requires the full employment of a country resources and domestic price level stability.External balance is attained when a countrys current account is neither so deeply in deficit nor so strongly in surplus.,Types of International monetary system,1.汇率制度 exchange rate system(1)Fixed exchange rate system(2)Adjustable Peg(3)Crawling Peg(4)Managed Float(5)Floating exchange rate system2.货币本位 monetary standard(reserve asset)(1)Commodity Standard(Gold Standard)(2)Credit Standard(inconvertible paper money)(3)Mixed Standard(gold exchange standard),The Gold Standard(1),第二节 国际金本位制度的形成及其特点：The gold standard had its origin in the use of gold coins as a medium of exchange,unit of account,and store of value.The gold standard as a legal institution dates from 1819,when the British Parliament passed the Resumption Act-exchanging currency notes for gold on demand at a fixed rate.,The Gold Standard(2),Later in the nineteenth century,Germany,Japan,and other countries also adopted the gold standard.The United States effectively joined the gold standard in 1879 when it pegged to gold the paper“greenbacks”issued during the Civil War.The U.S.Gold Standard Act of 1900 institutionalized the dollar-gold link.,Merits of International Gold Standard,国际金本位制的作用：由于各国汇率由含金量确定，汇率波动受黄金输送点限制，各国间汇率稳定。国际收支失衡的调节通过“物价和现金流动机制”自动调节，避免政府政策的人为失误。由于没有外汇管制，有利于商品和资本在国际间自由流动，使生产要素在国际间达到最佳组合和配置。对偏好依赖“通货膨胀”的政府施加了外部约束。因为受到(1)该国货币用黄金存量的限制；(2)物价和现金流动机制会使货币供应和物价水平恢复平衡,The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism(1),The theory was recognized by the David Hume,the Scottish philosopher,in 1752.Suppose that Britains current account surplus is greater than its non-reserve capital account deficit.The balance must be matched by flows of gold into Britain.These gold flows automatically reduce foreign money supplies and swell Britains money supply,pushing foreign prices downward and British price upward.,The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism(2),The simultaneous rise in British prices and fall in foreign pricesa real appreciation of the pound,given the fixed exchange ratereduces foreign demand for British goods and services and at the same time increases British demand for foreign goods and services.These demand shifts work in the direction of reducing Britains current account surplus and reducing the foreign account deficit.Eventually,reserve movements stop and both countries reach balance of payments equilibrium.,Drawbacks of Gold Standard,金本位制的缺陷：世界黄金存量的增长跟不上工业用金，货币用金和贮藏用金需求。（发行纸币的黄金准备）没有国际监督机构，各国政府不遵守“游戏规则”，顺差国不愿减少顺差，而调节国际收支的负担全部落在逆差国身上。黄金作为货币发行准备的成本太大。挖掘，窖藏，运输，和看守的机会成本太高。,Rules of the Game(1),The reactions of central banks to gold flows across their borders furnished another mechanism to help restore balance of payment equilibrium.Central banks that were persistently losing gold were motivated to contract their domestic asset holding,pushing domestic interest rates upward and attracting inflows of capital from abroad.Central banks gaining gold had much weaker incentives to eliminate their own imports of the metals.The main incentive was the greater profitability of interest-bearing domestic assets compared with“barren”gold.,Rules of the Game(2),The practices of selling domestic assets in the face of a deficit and buying domestic assets in the face of a surplus.This terminology is coined by Keynes.Because such measures speeded the movement of all countries toward their external balance goals,they increased the efficiency of the automatic adjustment processes inherent in the gold standard.The incentives to obey the rules applied with greater force to deficit than to surplus countries.,Evolution of International Gold Standard,国际金本位制的演变1922年在意大利热那亚城的世界货币会议决定采用“节约黄金”的原则。美国金本位制；英国和法国金块本位制；其他国家（发展中国家）金汇兑本位制。形成一种不受单一货币统治的货币体系。金块本位制：1国内不流通金币；2银行券在一定数量下才能兑换黄金。金汇兑本位制：1国内不流通金币；2国内的银行券只能购买外汇，用外汇在国外兑换黄金；3该国（殖民地）货币与另一个金（块）本位制国家（宗主国）的货币实行固定汇率，并将外汇和黄金储存在宗主国。,Collapse of Gold Standard-1,金汇兑本位制的三特点削弱了黄金的自动调节作用。19291933世界经济危机中各国纷纷放弃货币与黄金的联系。1933美国爆发货币信用危机，停止美元兑换黄金；提高了黄金的官价。1935.5德国放弃了金汇兑本位制。1935.9英国停止黄金的兑换。1936法国，比利时，荷兰，意大利，波兰，瑞士等六国黄金集团瓦解。,Collapse of Gold Standard-2,Last rescue:1936.9英，美，法达成三国货币协定：维持汇率；不进行竞争性货币贬值。1936.10又签定三国黄金协定。Failure of further efforts:由于法国的黄金受投机冲击而外流，1937.6法国放弃金本位制。第二次世界大战的战争准备。西方国家从美国购买军事物资，引起黄金流失。,The Bretton Woods System-I,布雷顿森林体系的建立背景,The Bretton Woods System-II,Common Grounds between White and Keynes,都强调解决经常项目不平衡。都只看重工业国的资金需要；忽视发展中国家。探求汇率稳定；防止竞争性货币贬值。英国被迫放弃国际清算联盟计划而接受美国的国际稳定基金方案。1944年发表了专家关于建立国际货币基金的联合声明，同年7月在美国新罕布什尔州的布雷顿森林召开了有44国参加的“联合和联盟国家国际货币基金会议”。,What is the Bretton Woods System?(1),两个协定：国际货币基金组织协定和国际复兴开发银行协定建立起一个以美元为中心的国际货币体系。宗旨：建立一个永久性的国际机构以促进国际货币合作。促进汇率稳定，防止竞争性货币贬值，建立多边支付制度，促进国际贸易和生产资源开发。向成员国融资，以减轻和调节国际收支不平衡。,What is the Bretton Woods System?(2),In July 1944,representatives of 44 countries meeting in Bretton Woods,New Hampshire,drafted and signed the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund(IMF).Even as the war continued,statement in the Allied countries were looking ahead to the economic needs of the postwar world.The system set up by the Bretton Woods agreement called for fixed exchange rates against the U.S.dollar and an unvarying dollar price of gold-$35 an ounce.Member countries held their official international reserves largely in the form of gold or dollar assets and had the right to sell dollars to the Fed for gold at the official price.,Main Content of the Bretton Woods System,布雷顿森林体系的主要内容：以黄金为基础，以美元作为最主要的国际储备货币。（双挂钩）支柱1实行固定汇率制度。（各国货币与美元的汇率只能在平价上下1%的幅度内波动。支柱2IMF给成员国提供辅助性的储备供应来源。成员国缴纳的25%的黄金和75%本币。在需要时，可用本币向IMF购买一定数额外汇。信贷功能成员国不得限制经常项目的支付，不得采取歧视性货币措施，要实行多边支付。协调功能“稀缺货币条款”，成员国有权对稀缺货币采取临时兑换限制，但从未实施过。协调功能,More about Bretton Woods System:1,二次大战前后的金汇兑本位制的对比：,More about Bretton Woods System:2,二次大战前后的金汇兑本位制的相同处：各成员国都要规定货币的平价金平价各成员国汇率变动幅度1%黄金输送点各成员国的国际储备是黄金+可兑换货币外汇储备各成员国要使货币可兑换，对经常项目不能管制自由贸易+自由兑换,More about Bretton Woods System:3,布雷顿森林体系的作用：解决了世界黄金产量不足，美元的增加发行，弥补了国际清偿能力短缺。汇率稳定和有弹性促进国际贸易，投资和信贷的发展。IMF的各种短，中期贷款和融资使临时逆差国有buffer余地。成员国有相对的经济自主权。在国际收支根本不平衡时可以更改汇率。为各成员国提供了相互磋商协调的讲坛。达到内部和外部的平衡。,Drawbacks of Bretton Woods System,布雷顿森林体系的缺陷：“双挂钩”“Triffin Dilemma”早在50年代美国耶鲁大学教授提出。美元无法按固定比价维持同黄金的可兑换性。美元的增加发行必然引起人们对美元可兑换性的怀疑。信心危机。国际收支调节机制的效率不高，并且不对称。逆差国负担过重。固定汇率的多边性和1%幅度比较僵化。顺差国不愿货币升值或膨胀经济。迫使逆差国接受有条件的贷款来融通国际收支逆差。该条件是紧缩国内经济。,Breakdown of Bretton Woods System,Dollar Shortage,Dollar Glut,世界黄金3/4集中到美国,1948 Marshall Plan,1958EEC,1960 第一次美元危机:美国短期债务210.3亿黄金储备178亿,1961 Basel Agreement国际清算银行的8国中央银行,1961.10Gold Pool稳定金价$30.2/ounce,1961.11借款总安排$60亿美元巴黎俱乐部,1962.3互惠借款协定,1968第二次美元危机：3债务黄金,美国黄金储备流失14亿美元,关闭伦敦黄金市场,解散黄金总库实行黄金双价制（官民分开）,1971第三次美元危机：短期外债678亿黄金储备110亿,尼克松“新经济政策”停止黄金兑换；征10%进口附加税,Smithsonian Agreement,1973.2第四次美元危机：布雷顿森林体系崩溃,U.S.macro-data,1964-1972,Inflation rate,U.S.macro-data,1964-1972,Current account surplus,U.S.macro-data,1964-1972,Money supply growth rate,Special Drawing Rights 1,In 1976,IMF members agreed to the creation of the Special Drawing Right(SDR),an artificial reserve asset similar to the IMF currency Triffin had envisioned.SDRs are used in transactions between central banks,but their creation had relatively little impact on the functioning of the international monetary system.Their impact was limited partly because by the late 1960s,the system of fixed exchange rates was beginning to show strains that would soon lead to its collapse.,Special Drawing Rights 2,1964年比利时提出了一个折衷方案：主张增加各国向IMF的自动提款权，而不是另创新的储备货币来解决shortage of International liquidity.1969IMF年会正式通过了十国集团提出的关于特别提款权的方案。并决定从19701972年的三年内，有IMF发行95亿SDRs，按成员国摊付的原有份额比例进行分配，以补充黄金不足。以此作为成员国原有的普通提款权以外的储备资产的手段。,Special Drawing Rights 3,特别提款权：是IMF成员国在该组织的储备资产，它是一种有黄金保值的记帐单位，称为“纸黄金”。它是由IMF根据各成员国上年年底缴纳份额的比率进行分配。份额越大，得到的分配就越多。可以：当成员国发生国际收支逆差时可以动用。即：把它转给另一成员国，换取可兑换货币，以偿付逆差。不可以：不能兑换黄金；不能直接用于贸易和非贸易结算。,Valuation of SDRs,IMF(1974.6)达成协议，改16种货币重新定值。选择货币的标准是19861972年5年内商品和劳务出口额占国际总出口额的1%以上国家的货币。1978年以后每隔5年调整一次。1981年起，由5种货币定值。（教材219页）,Limitation of SDRs,特别提款权是一个没有物资基础的记帐单位。它即不象黄金本身具有价值；也不象美元，英镑，日元等货币有一个国家经济实力作为后盾。它是一种虚构的国际清偿能力。充其量只能作为成员国原有提款权的一种补充。特别提款权只是为了解决国际收支不平衡的权宜措施。不会引起人们对它的持有欲望。如果 IMF国际性机构的变迁，它的存在便会引起疑问。,Status Quo of International Monetary System 1,Revising the IMFs Charter,1975-1976.Because floating rates had seemed to function well in conditions of adversity,the governments of the industrialized countries acknowledged late in 1975 that they were prepared to live with floating exchange rates for the indefinite future.The IMFs directors met at Kingston,Jamaica,in January 1976 to approve a revision of the fourth IMF Article of Agreement,which covered exchange rate arrangement.,Status Quo of International Monetary System 2,The new Article IV implicitly endorsed floating rates by freeing each member country to choose any exchange rate system it prepared.Governments were urged to follow macroeconomic policies that would promote price stability and growth and they were to avoid“manipulating exchange rates to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members”,Status Quo of International Monetary System 3,牙买加协定Jamaica Agreement,1976修订基金份额浮动汇率合法化黄金非货币化（废除黄金官价）扩大对发展中国家资金融通以SDRs为主要储备资产布雷顿森林体系牙买加体系（对原有体系的黄金，汇率和特别提款权三方面进行改革。第二次修正案,Status Quo of International Monetary System 4,牙买加体系是国际金融动荡的产物。该体系的缺陷如下：国际收支严重失调。没有调节措施和监督机构来督促顺差国减少盈余；逆差国减少赤字。多种货币储备体系的不稳定性。必须使国际储备货币多样化来分散外汇风险。汇率波动频繁。国际投机性资本大规模流动造成各国利率，物价和就业混乱。,Status Quo of International Monetary System 4,区域性货币集团的抬头在国际性(IMF)的协调功能衰退的同时，区域性货币集团的协调功能在加强。最成功的是欧洲货币体系和1999年的欧元的诞生。美洲是由于美国的美元势力过于强大。区域性的货币合作与IMF过去功能类似。但是美国和加拿大的货币政策相当协调。亚洲各国由于对日本的过去侵略难于忘怀。对日元有抵触心理。在亚洲不可能形成象欧洲那样的货币区。此外，日本太自私并且经济还在往下滑。其它区域性货币组织更本不足挂齿。,Reform of International Monetary System,Current proposals to reform the international monetary system run the gamut from a more elaborate system of target zones for the dollar to the resurrection of fixed rates to the introduction of a single world currency.Because countries seem unwilling to give up the autonomy floating dollar rates have given them,it is unlikely that any of these changes is in the cards.With greater policy cooperation among the main players,there is no reason why floating exchange rates should not function well in the future.,Prospect of International Monetary System-1,要解决的问题：1.何为本位货币/储备货币？2.什么汇率制度？何为本位货币/储备货币？建立世界性的中央银行：把IMF改造成世界中央银行。成员国把所持有的国际储备的20%存入该行。这项存款以黄金表示，有利息。成员国之间清算可通过世界性中央银行的存款办理转帐。恢复金本位制：黄金金价要大幅度提高以适应国际贸易的发展。但是，如今各国政府更重视国内平衡。金本位制的自动调节不易发挥作用。私人窑藏黄金的倾向增大。美国政府的黄金委员会讨论否决了恢复金本位制的方案。,Prospect of International Monetary System-2,3.调整黄金价格:(1)提高黄金价格满足国际流通手段不足刺激黄金的生产。(2)降低黄金价格促使私人出售黄金相应提高关键货币的价格增加国际流通手段。4.恢复美元本位制：承认现实的局面国际贸易和非贸易结算中使用最大的货币(70%)。但是Triffin Dilemma仍然存在。5.特别提款权本位制：应为SDRs是人为创造的资产，它成为国际储备资产的前提必须有世界性中央银行的存在。6.商品性储备货币本位制：普通商品的产量增长比黄金快，并且一组商品加权平均价比黄金价格更稳定。黄金美元汇兑本位制 一组商品多种储备货币本位制。,Prospect of International Monetary System-3,汇率制度改革的建议：实行爬动Crawling Peg/Sliding Peg钉住的汇率制：汇率随宏观经济和国际收支状况阶段性调整。同时在短期内保持相对稳定性。对于发展中国家比较适合。实行汇率目标区(target zone)：“目标区”也就是主要货币之间确定汇率的波动幅度。其他非主要货币钉住目标随之浮动。目标区旨在反映实际汇率。,Target Zone(band),特点：确定各国货币的中心汇率，并在中心汇率附近确定一个汇率波动的范围。它即有浮动汇率的灵活性又有固定汇率的稳定性。区别：(Target Zone vs.Bretton Woods)它仍是一种浮动汇率形式；只不过是为几种主要货币的波动规定一个幅度而已。当汇率波动达到目标区的上下限时，有关国家可以不承担干预的义务。但必须运用经济政策调整使汇率回到目标区内。,Which Exchange Rate System is better?,Answer:It depends on the over all international economic situation.,Fixed Exchange Rate is better,Floating Exchange rate is better,World Economy,European Monetary System 1,Historical Evolution of EMS.1950欧洲支付同盟(1)清算采用一种货币；(2)内部贸易不平衡由一个多边机构来统筹；(3)顺差国通过同盟向逆差国自动提供信贷。1969建立欧洲货币联盟(European Monetary Cooperation Fund-EMU)提出分三阶段实现货币联盟目标。19711973:目标是缩小成员国货币波动幅度2.25%。成立European Monetary Cooperation Fund.19741976:目标是汇聚成员国外汇储备；维持固定汇率制；实现内部资本的自由流动。19771980:目标是同一经济区，区内货币，劳动，资本自由流动。建立共同固定汇率；共同储备货币；共同中央银行。,European Monetary System 2,In practice all EMS currencies are pegged to the DM.As a result Germany is able to set monetary policy for the EMS,just as the United States did in the Bretton Woods system.The credibility theory of the EMS holds that participating governments profit from the German Bundesbanks reputation as an inflation fighter when they peg their currencies to the DM.In fact,inflation rates in EMS countries have tended to converge around Germanys generally low inflation rate.Critics of Germany charge that it has abused its dominant position by neglecting the effects its policies have on other EMS countries.,Germany Dominance:Inflation convergence within the EMS/Countrys annual inflation less Germanys annual inflation,European Monetary System 3,A brief glossary of EuronymsCAP-Common Agricultural PolicyEC-European CommunityECU-European Currency UnitEMS-European Monetary SystemEMU-European Monetary UnionERM-Exchange Rate MechanismOur discussion of EMS will throw light not only on the forces promoting greater unification of national economies but also on the forces that make a country think twice before giving up completely its control over domestic monetary policy.,European Monetary System 4,1979欧洲货币体系EMS生效。8国（法国，西德，意大利，荷兰，比利时，卢森堡，爱尔兰，丹麦）英国只参加欧洲货币基金。后来希腊，西班牙，葡萄牙也加入。Three Motivations:欧共体内部生产国际化，一体化要求。配合共同农业政策，关税同盟。共同对付美元危机，稳定内部贸易和经济发展。欧洲政治联合，一体化的需要。,European Currency Unit:ECU,ECU(1979)取代EUA(1975),类似SDRs，它是12国货币的货币篮子，每种货币在货币篮子中的比重是由各国在欧共体内部贸易总额以及GNP中所占份额加权平均计算。其中马克有举足轻重的影响。,Exchange Mechanism of EMS,欧洲货币体系的汇率制度：联合浮动(Joint Floating after Mar.1997)：成员国货币之间实行固定汇率，对非成员国的货币则实行联合浮动汇率。汇率稳定是通过两种干预工具平价网体系(Parity Grid):“格子体系”要求成员国货币之间彼此确定中心汇率，汇率波动只能在中心汇率上下浮动。超过幅度，中央银行有义务干预。货币篮子体系(Currency Basket)确定成员国货币对欧洲货币单位的中心汇率，再计算每种货币对这一中心汇率所允许的最大偏离幅度。Maximum Spread of Divergence(MSD)篮子中的权数越大，其允许波幅就越小。,European Monetary Fund-EMF,欧洲货币基金资金来源：成员国缴纳各自黄金外汇储备的20%。资金用途：干预外汇（短期信贷）；向国际收支困难的成员国提供贷款（短期贷款，中期财政贷款）。,Delors Report,1989德洛尔报告Delors Report 即经济与货币同盟研究委员会报告“经济联盟”指人员，商品，劳务以及资本的自由流动和共同政策的充分协调。建立中央银行设想。“货币同盟”是指货币完全和不可取消地自由兑换；资本在一体化金融市场上自由流动；不可改变的固定汇率。建议分三阶段实现Economic and Monetary Union。第一阶段：深化金融一体化；所有仍在浮动的成员国货币加入EMU。第二阶段：建立欧洲中央银行体系。第三阶段：推行不可改变的固定汇率制。,Maastricht Treaty,1991马斯特里赫特条约欧洲共同体首脑在荷兰小镇Maastricht签署货币联盟。最终要求：设立中央银行，发行统一货币。19901993:所有成员国加入欧洲货币体系汇率机制；资本自由移动；政策和监督的协调。19941997:建立European System of Central Banks(ESCB)19971999:建立独立的欧洲中央银行和发行统一的欧洲货币。主要是控制各国的通货膨胀。,European Monetary Union,In 1989 a committee headed by Jacques Delors,president of the European Commission,recommended a three-stage transition to a goal of replacement of national currency to a single EC currency managed by a sole central bank that operates on behalf of all EC members.Leaders of the EC countries agreed to propose for national ratification far-reaching amendments to the Treaty of Rome,the 250-page Maastricht Treaty was passed.,Three Main Motives,Why did the EC leaders press ahead with EMU even though the EC doesnt appear to meet the requirements of an optimum currency area?They believed a single EC currency would produce greater monetary efficiency gains than fixed exchange rates.The European Central Bank will r