宏观经济学-通货膨胀与失业理论.ppt

六、通货膨胀与失业理论INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT,通货膨胀定义与危害,通货膨胀是指商品和生产要素价格普遍和持续的上涨。持续的通货膨胀会破坏价格机制，使生产者和消费者作出错误决策，导致资源配置浪费。通货膨胀使货币贬值，动摇人们对货币的信心。不利于本国出口，不利于国际收支平衡。不利于储蓄者，不利于贷款者。,Inflation:Its Causes and Costs通货膨胀：原因与成本,Inflation is an increase in the overall price level.通货膨胀是价格水平的整体上升 It is a continuous increase（持续上升）versus a once-and-for-all increase in prices.Inflation deals with the increase in the average of prices（平均水平）and not just significant increases in the price of a few goods.,The Causes of Inflation,Inflation is an economy-wide monetary phenomenon（货币现象）that concerns,first and foremost,the value of the economys medium of exchange.,The Causes of Inflation,To understand the causes of inflation we must understand the concepts of money supply,money demand,and monetary equilibrium（货币均衡）.,In the long run,the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply.,Money Supply and Money Demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money Supply and Money Demand,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,A,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,A,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,The Effects of Monetary Injection货币注入效应,Suppose the Fed injects money into the economy by buying government bonds.The supply of money curve shifts to the right.The equilibrium value of money decreases.The equilibrium price level increases.,The Effects of MonetaryInjection,The Effects of MonetaryInjection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,1.An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,1.An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,A,B,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,1.An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,A,B,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,2.decreases the value of money.,1.An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,A,B,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,2.decreases the value of money.,1.An increase in the money supply.,Hyperinflation恶性通货膨胀,Hyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month.,Hyperinflation,Hyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much money to pay for its spending.,Hyperinflation,Note the relationship between the growth rate of the quantity of money and the price level.,Hyperinflation,Hungary匈牙利,Money supply,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Price level,100,000,10,000,1,000,100,Index(Jan.1921=100),Austria奥地利,Hyperinflation,Germany德国,1,100 trillion,1 million,10 billion,1 trillion,100 million,10,000,100,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Price level,Money,supply,Poland波兰,Money,supply,Price level,Index(Jan.1921=100),100,10 million,100,000,1 million,10,000,1,000,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Index(Jan.1921=100),Hyperinflation and Inflation Tax通货膨胀税,When the government raises revenue by printing money,it is said to levy an inflation tax.An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.,Hyperinflation and Inflation Tax,The inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms（财政改革）such as cuts in government spending（削减政府开支）.,The Fisher Effect费雪效应,According to the Fisher effect,when the rate of inflation rises,the nominal interest rate（名义利率）rises by the same amount.The real interest rate（实际利率）stays the same.,The Fisher Effect,According to the Fisher effect,when the rate of inflation rises,the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount.The real interest rate stays the same.,The Fisher Effect,When the Fed increases the rate of money growth,the result is both a higher inflation rate and a higher nominal interest rate.,需求拉上型通货膨胀,成本推进型通货膨胀,The Costs of Inflation,Shoeleather costs（皮鞋成本）Menu costs（菜单成本）Relative price variability（相对价格变动）Tax distortions（税收扭曲）Confusion and inconvenience（混乱与不方便）Arbitrary redistribution of wealth（任意的财富再分配）,Shoeleather Costs（皮鞋成本）,Shoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings.,Shoeleather Costs,Inflation reduces the real value of money,so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings.,Shoeleather Costs,Less cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts.,Shoeleather Costs,Extra trips to the bank take time away from productive activities.,Menu Costs（菜单成本）,Menu costs are the costs of changing prices.,Menu Costs,During inflationary times,it is necessary to update price lists（更新价格目录）and other posted prices.,Menu Costs,This is a resource-consuming process（资源消耗过程）that takes away from other productive activities.,Relative-Price Variability（相对价格变动）,Inflation distorts relative prices（通货膨胀扭曲了相对价格）.Consumer decisions are distorted（消费者决策也被扭曲）,and markets are less able to allocate resources to their best use.,Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion（通货膨胀引起的税收扭曲）,Inflation exaggerates（夸大）the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden（增加税收负担）on this type of income.With progressive taxation（累进税）,capital gains are taxed more heavily.,Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion,The income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income,（所得税把名义利率作为储蓄所赚得的收入进行征税）even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation（部分名义利率仅够补偿通货膨胀造成的损失）.The after-tax real interest rate falls,making saving less attractive.（税后实际利率下降，导致储蓄失去吸引力）,Confusion and Inconvenience（混乱与不方便）,With rising prices,it is more difficult to compare real revenues,costs,and profits over time.物价上涨使人们对不同时期的收入、成本和利润难以进行比较。,Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth（任意的财富再分配）,Unanticipated inflation redistributes wealth between debtors and creditors.不可预期的通货膨胀会造成债务人和债权人之间的财富再分配。This may result in wealth transfers that would not otherwise be acceptable.,失业概念和分类,失业是指有劳动能力并愿意就业的劳动者找不到工作。失业可分为三种状况：磨擦性失业，是指因工作变动过程为寻找工作转换而产生的失业，它被看作是一种求职性失业。结构性失业，是指因经济结构的变化，产业兴衰转移造成的失业。周期性失业，是指经济周期性衰退所造成的失业。,Natural Rate of Unemployment自然失业率,The natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run.It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.,自然失业率,自然失业率是指在充分就业条件下的失业率，主要是指磨擦性失业和结构性失业。二战以来，自然失业率不断上升，其原因是：产业结构调整速度加快，这是科技进步的结果。失业救济金不断增加，不少国家失业与就业之间的效用差别越来越小。最低工资不断上升，往往高于市场出清水平。劳动供给结构变化，妇女就业率提高。,Cyclical Unemployment周期性失业,Cyclical unemployment refers to the fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate.围绕着自然失业率的波动It is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle（商业周期）.,Measuring Unemployment失业统计,Unemployment is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS)美国劳动统计局.It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month.,Measuring Unemployment,The BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.,Measuring Unemployment,A person is considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job.,Measuring Unemployment,A person is considered unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff,looking for a job,or waiting for the start date of a new job.,Measuring Unemployment,A person in none of these categories is not in the labor force.,Measuring Unemployment,The labor force（劳动力）is the total number of workers,which includes both the number employed plus the number unemployed.,Measuring Unemployment,The labor-force participation rate（劳动力参工率）is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force.,Measuring Unemployment,The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.,Measuring Unemployment,The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.,奥肯定律,失业意味着愿意就业的劳动力资源没有得到充分的利用，从而会使实际产出增长率低于充分就业时的产出增长率。美国经济学家奥肯(Arthur M.Okun)根据美国历年的经验数据发现：实际产出增长率每低于潜在产出增长率3个百分点，就会引起失业率上升1个百分点。奥肯定律描绘了产出增长率与失业率之间的关系。奥肯定律表明，要保持失业率不变，实际产出增长率与潜在产出增长率之间的缺口不能扩大。,Why is there unemployment?,In an ideal labor market,wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor,ensuring that all workers would be fully employed（充分就业）.,Why the Ideal Is Missed,Minimum-wage laws最低工资法Unions工会Efficiency wages效率工资Job search职业搜寻,Minimum-Wage Laws,When the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand,it creates unemployment.,Minimum-Wage Laws,Quantity of Labor,0,Wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,Quantity of Labor,0,Wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum wage,LD,LS,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum wage,LD,LS,Unions and Collective Bargaining工会和集体谈判,A union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions.A union is a type of cartel.工会是一种典型的卡特尔,Unions and Collective Bargaining,The process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called collective bargaining（集体谈判）.,Unions and Collective Bargaining,A strike（罢工）will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement.,Unions and Collective Bargaining,A strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off.罢工会使有些工人更好，而另一些工人更坏。Workers in unions reap the benefits of collective bargaining,while workers not in the union bear some of the costs.,Unions and Collective Bargaining,By acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers,unions usually achieve above equilibrium wages for their members.Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than nonunion workers.,Are unions good or bad for the economy?工会对经济是利是弊,Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable.批评者认为工会使劳动力配置失效和不公平 Wages above the competitive level竞争水平 reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment.Some workers benefit at the expense of other workers.,Are unions good or bad for the economy?,Advocates（拥护者）of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote（矫正）to the market power of firms that hire workers.They claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers concerns.,长期合同理论,由于工会的存在，劳资双方谈判成本较高，所以一般都倾向于签订长期合同。在合同期内，名义工资一般固定不变。也就是说，在长期合同中，雇员的名义工资是刚性的。如果合同期内出现经济衰退，这时雇主不能通过降低工资来扩大劳动力需求，这就使劳动力市场处于非出清状态，造成部分失业。,内部人-外部人理论,内部人是指那些已在企业工作的人，外部人是指那些想到企业工作的人。内部人在工资决定上有讨价还价的能力，这是因为企业要调换内部人和雇佣外部人是要花费成本的，这些成本包括：根据合同条款，解雇内部人需作出补偿；解雇内部人会引起其他内部人的不满；雇佣外部人需花费更多的培训费用等。内部人会团结起来，排挤外部人，这样就可以使内部人将工资稳定在高于市场出清的水平。,效率工资理论,为刺激员工的高效率，雇主会主动把工资维持在一个高于劳动力市场出清的水平，这是因为：高工资会增加员工怠工偷懒的机会成本；高工资可以吸引优秀人才；高工资可以减少员工变换工作的行为；高工资可以让员工心态平衡；高工资可以减少员工联合的动机。高于市场出清的高工资，会导致劳动力市场总是存在着过剩的劳动供给，失业也会持续存在。,Theory of Efficiency Wages效率工资理论,Efficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity.The theory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages are above the equilibrium level.,Theory of Efficiency Wages,A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons:Worker Health工人健康:Better paid workers eat better and thus are more productive.Worker Turnover工人流动率:A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.,Theory of Efficiency Wages,A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons:Worker Effort工人努力程度:Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort.Worker Quality工人素质:Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply for jobs.,二元劳动力市场理论,我们可以把劳动力市场划分为第一市场和第二市场。第一市场工资较高，劳动条件较好，工作岗位有保障，职业前景较好。第二市场工资较低，工作条件差，工作具有不稳定性和暂时性。这两个劳动力市场的求职者一般不会相互流动，这是因为第一市场的求职者不愿光顾第二市场；而第二市场的求职者无法进入第一市场。如果出现周期性失业，第一市场的失业率要明显低于第二市场，因为第一市场更多地受到制度的保护。,Unemployment and Inflation失业与通货膨胀,The natural rate of unemployment depends on various features of the labor market.Examples include minimum-wage laws,the market power of unions,and the role of efficiency wages.,Unemployment and Inflation,The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money,controlled by the Fed.,The Phillips Curve菲利浦斯曲线,Society faces a short-run tradeoff（交替）between unemployment and inflation.If policymakers expand扩张 aggregate demand,they can lower unemployment,but only at the cost of higher inflation.If they contract收缩 aggregate demand,they can lower inflation,but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.,The Phillips Curve,The Phillips curve illustrates the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.,Aggregate Demand,Aggregate Supply,and the Phillips Curve,The Phillips curve shows the short-run combinations结合 of unemployment and inflation that arise as shifts in the aggregate demand curve move the economy along the short-run aggregate supply curve.,Aggregate Demand,Aggregate Supply,and the Phillips Curve,The greater the aggregate demand for goods and services,the greater is the economys output,and the higher is the overall price level.,Aggregate Demand,Aggregate Supply,and the Phillips Curve,A higher level of output results in a lower level of unemployment.,Phillips Curve,Phillips Curve,Unemployment Rate(percent),Inflation Rate(percent per year),Phillips Curve,Unemployment Rate(percent),0,Inflation Rate(percent per year),Phillips curve,Phillips Curve,Unemployment Rate(percent),0,7,Inflation Rate(percent per year),A,2,Phillips curve,Phillips Curve,Unemployment Rate(percent),0,4,7,Inflation Rate(percent per year),B,A,6,2,Phillips curve,The Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment,Monetary and fiscal policy货币和财政政策 can shift the aggregate demand curve,thus moving the economy along the Phillips curve.The Phillips curve illustrates the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment faced by policymakers.,The Aggregate Demand and Supply Model and the Phillips Curve,The Aggregate Demand and Supply Model and the Phillips Curve,