基于农村住户调查的农村贫困统计.ppt

2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 1,Rural Poverty Statistics in China：Based on Rural Household Surveys,TOT Course on Poverty AnalysisNovember 1-8,OctoberBeijingYan FangDepartment of Rural SurveyNational Bureau of Statistics,基于农村住户调查的农村贫困统计,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 2,改革开放后中国的扶贫开发Poverty Alleviation in Post-reform China,4 periods:1978-19851986-19931994-20002001-2010,中国农村扶贫开发战略的历史演变（四个阶段）,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 3,1978-1985,贫困减少主要依靠整体经济增长和经济体制改革Economic growth and social transitions contributed the most in poverty alleviation during this period,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 4,1986-1993,中国政府从1986年起开始直接针对贫困地区和贫困人口进行农村扶贫开发。Regional development approaches and self-development of rural households开发式扶贫项目，增强自我发展能力 Development-oriented anti-poverty activities,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 5,1994-2000,实施国家八七扶贫攻坚计划，扶贫开发进入攻坚阶段 8-7 plan力争用7年时间，基本解决全国农村8000万贫困人口的温饱问题 Basically eliminate the absolute poverty in 7 years592个国定贫困县 592 designated“national poor counties”针对贫困人口 Aiming at the poor population,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 6,2001-2010,实施中国农村扶贫开发纲要（2001-2010）The Development Orientated Poverty Alleviation Program in Rural China(2001-2010)扶贫任务不仅是解决贫困人口的温饱问题，也要帮助初步解决温饱、但还不巩固的贫困人口增加经济收入，改善生产生活条件，实现稳定解决温饱。Solve the subsistence problems of the remaining absolute poor and help the low-income group to improve their development capability多元贫困：强调综合开发、全面发展，不但要加强基础设施建设，也要重视科技、教育、卫生、文化事业的发展，改善社区环境，提高生活质量，促进贫困地区经济、社会的协调发展和全面进步 Multi-dimensionality of poverty参与式扶贫 Participatory approaches for poverty reduction,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 7,贫困监测的发展Evolution of Poverty Monitoring,1986年开始使用贫困发生率的概念 Introduce poverty incidence in 19861995年开始用国际通行的方法测算贫困线 Determine poverty line using the internationally accepted method 1997年起在592个国定贫困县/扶贫重点县进行贫困监测 592 county poverty monitoring since 19972001年改进调查方案以反映多元贫困及进行扶贫活动的影响评估 Reform national poverty monitoring program in 2001 to better reflect the multi-dimensionality of poverty and to evaluate the impact of poverty reduction activities more objectively,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 8,贫困统计数据来源Data Source of Poverty Statistics,全国农村住户抽样调查 National Rural Household Survey全国农村贫困监测抽样调查 National Rural Poverty Monitoring Survey专项贫困监测调查 Special Poverty Monitoring Survey 全国县乡村统计资料 Regional Statistics through Administrative Reports,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 9,1954年首次使用住户调查方法收集农村社会经济数据。国家统计局在全国抽选了15,432个农村住户进行收入、支出和住房情况进行调查。RHS has been carried out to collect socio-economic data in rural China,with the first use in the year of 1954,when National Bureau of Statistics(NBS)selected 15,432 rural households for survey on income,expenditure,and housing,etc.,National Rural Household Survey全国农村住户抽样调查,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 10,上世纪八十年代中期以后快速发展，快速发展的标志是专业化调查组织机构的建立。RHS got on fast development after the middle 1980s,which was marked by the establishment of professional Rural Survey Organizations.,National Rural Household Survey全国农村住户抽样调查,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 11,强大的调查组织机构 Powerful survey organization一支高素质的调查队伍 Capable survey team 一个综合性、连续性住户调查方案 Comprehensive and consistent household survey questionnaire 组织大规模专项调查取得了丰富的经验 Rich experiences in organizing large-scale special surveys现代信息技术被广泛应用到调查当中 Updated high-tech has been applied in survey 数据质量受到国内外用户的一致好评 Data quality is highly commended by users at home and abroad 调查结果成为了政府决策的重要依据 Survey results provide important basis for government decision making,全国农村住户抽样调查强大的住户调查系统 Powerful Household Survey System,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 12,全国农村住户抽样调查 Objectives 调查目的,全面反映农村居民收入增长、生活水平改善过程 Giving a comprehensive picture on the income growth and living standard improvement of rural residents 监测农村反贫进程 monitoring the poverty alleviation process in rural areas,and producing data for the compilation of Chinas national accounts为党和政府的宏观决策提供依据 Providing objective data for all levels of governments to make policies and decisions on rural economic development 为国民经济综合平衡提供资料 producing data for the compilation of Chinas national accounts为农民家庭发展生产、科学理财提供帮助 Help rural households improve scientific financing,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 13,全国农村住户抽样调查 Function in poverty monitoring 在贫困监测方面的作用,用来测算贫困线、推算全国和分省农村贫困人口数量、反映农村贫困特征For setting poverty line,estimating national and provincial poverty incidence and poor population,describing rural poverty status and features,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 14,国家统计局农村司负责，调查方案由国家统计局统一制订 Rural Survey Organization(RSO)of NBS 在每个省都有调查队，各省具体负责组织实施 Survey branch in each province 在857个国家调查县成立调查队 857 sampled counties all over country 全国约有8000名专职调查员 More than 8,000 staffs nationwide 每村聘用一名辅助调查员，负责本村10个调查户的记账工作 An enumerator in each village,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Organization and Implementation 调查的组织与实施,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 15,全国农村住户抽样调查 Coverage 调查范围,样本分布在全国31个省，对全国和分省贫困状况有代表性 All the provinces，representative at national and provincial level部分省扩充地方点，使得数据在县一级有代表性 Expanding the samples to meet the county level estimates,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 16,全国农村住户抽样调查 Sampling 样本抽选,样本抽选方法分层(分省)二相抽样（大样本，小样本）两阶段（省抽村、村抽户）：随机起点、对称等距相结合Sampling methodstratification(by province),two phases（PSU，SSU）two stage(select villages and select households),randomly,systematic sampling method.,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 17,全国农村住户抽样调查 Sampling 样本抽选,编制抽样框:使用农业普查资料 Sampling frame:agricultural census.用样本单位的人均纯收入排队，根据累计人口指标建立抽样框 Ranking per capita net income using the accumulated population as supplement.在95%的概率把握程度下要求抽样误差系数不得超过3%95%confidence,sampling error not exceed 3%,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 18,全国农村住户抽样调查 Sample size 样本量,857个调查县，7100个调查村，68,000农户68,000 households distributed in 857 sample counties(accounting for 1/3 of total number of counties),7,100 sample villages,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 19,调查样本的轮换周期为5年 RHS rotation sampling scheme on a 5-year basis最近的两次样本轮换分别在2000年和2005年 Latest 2 rotations in 2000 and 2005,全国农村住户抽样调查 Sample Rotation 样本轮换,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 20,较长时间以来，中国农村住户调查一直有着较高的回答率，这主要归功于农村住户与调查员之间的高度配合。RHS has a relatively high response rate in China,due to the rural residences inclining to cooperate with the interviewer.,全国农村住户抽样调查 Response rate 回答率,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 21,全国农村住户抽样调查Frequency 调查期及报告期,调查年度从上年12月1日起本年11月30日 Survey year:1 Dec.to 30 Nov.报告期分别为年报和季报 Yearly+Quarterly季报包括农村居民现金收支和主要农产品出售情况 Quarterly:cash income/expenditure/investment,sale of agricultural products年报包括农村住户调查的全部报表 Yearly:all the indicators,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 22,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Content 调查内容,包括6个主题：收入与支出、人口与就业、住房、住户家庭基本情况、土地与农业生产、住户居住的社区环境Six subjects:income and expenditure,population and employment,housing,basic information of household,land and agricultural production,basic community information.,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 23,1.收入与支出 Income and Expenditure主要内容包括：住户总收入及收入来源、住户生活消费总支出及支出结构、食品消费、住户生产经营总支出及支出结构It includes total income and source of the income,total living expenditure and detailed components,food consumption,expenditure for household business and detailed components.,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Content 调查内容,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 24,2.人口与就业 Population and Employment 主要内容包括：住户人口数量与特征，住户经济活动人口的素质、就业时间、主要从事的职业及社会保障，住户经济活动人口外出从业的地点、时间、从事的职业、收入及消费情况，已外出从业的经济活动返回居住地的情况It mainly includes household size,household and individual characteristics,education attainment,time of employment,main job and social security coverage,address/time/job/income and expenditure of migrant labors.,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Content 调查内容,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 25,3.住房 Housing主要内容包括：调查时点实际拥有的住房面积、价值及质量，住房的卫生、取暖、饮水供应及外部环境，年内新建住房面积、价值、质量及建房资金来源It mainly includes floor area,value and quality at the time point of survey;sanitary ware,heating,drinking water supply,and surroundings;floor area,value,quality,and funding source of newly built houses in the year.,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Content 调查内容,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 26,4.住户家庭基本情况 Basic Information of Household 主要内容包括：住户家庭的类型、参加合作经济组织、享有的社会保障情况，住户拥有的生产性固定资产的种类、数量及价值，住户拥有的耐用消费品的种类、数量及价值 It mainly includes category of household;if the household joining in any economic setups;coverage of social security;fixed assets for purpose of production(type,quantity and value);durable goods(type,quantity and value).,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Content 调查内容,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 27,5.土地与农业生产 Land and Agricultural Production主要内容包括：住户实际经营的土地类型、数量，经营土地的流转情况，所经营土地的农作物种植结构及产出，农业生产中现代农业技术的应用情况It mainly includes type,area of land operated by a household;status of land circulation;crops grown and yield;use of updated technology in agriculture production.,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Content 调查内容,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 28,6.住户居住的社区环境 Community Information 主要内容包括：住户所居住村庄的规模、资源拥有情况、非农业发展状况，村庄离城镇的距离，村庄离医疗卫生、学校、邮局、车站（码头）等公共服务设施的距离It mainly includes population of the village,resources in possession,development of non-agricultural sectors,distance from village to town center,distance from village to clinic,school,post office,railway station(quay).,全国农村住户抽样调查 Survey Content 调查内容,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 29,三个层次的调查数据：村级户级个人Three levels:Village/CommunityHouseholdIndividual,全国农村住户抽样调查 Data 数据,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 30,采用了两种数据采集方法：收入与支出调查主题采用日记帐方法，其他调查主题采用调查员入户访问的方法采集数据。Two methods are used for data collection:dairy-book keeping by sampled households for survey on income and expenditure,visiting interview for other subjects.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法 data collection,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 31,调查户记帐按照国家统计局统一编制的帐本和要求来记帐。现金收支帐每日一记，实物收支发生一笔记一笔。The sampled households record all the economic activities such as production,purchasing,selling,consumption etc.in a dairy book（Cash+In kind),全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法 data collection,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 32,辅助调查员:负责本村10个调查户的记账工作，接受调查户的咨询，定期督促检查调查户的记账情况，发现问题，及时提出并加以纠正，提高记账质量。Assistant enumerators:to prompt the household to keep the dairy book,to help the illiteracy to record,to check and sort up the dairy book periodically.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法 data collection,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 33,一次性调查由县级农调队的调查员在年底完成，采取入户面访的调查方式：农村住户所在村基本情况、农村住户家庭基本情况、农村居民居住情况、农村住户人口与就业情况、农业生产结构及技术应用情况调查。县级农调队每月收取调查户的帐本，检查记帐质量，提供帮助，将数据录入到计算机中。County interviewers often go to villages to supervise the recording,to provide guidance or help,and to collect the dairy books periodically.At the end of each calendar year,visiting interviews are arranged for collecting community information as well as individual information,plus some additional household information like fixed assets.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据采集方法 data collection,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 34,对原始帐页进行分类、审核、汇总、计算，生成统计指标和统计资料，这个过程就是住户调查数据的处理。Coding and classification,Check,Sum up,Calculation,Get indicators,全国农村住户抽样调查数据处理 data procession,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 35,全国农村住户抽样调查调查数据的质量控制 Data Quality Control,组织培训Train 方案设计Design现场调查组织和监测Field survey organizing数据处理Data process数据审核Data check数据质量评估 Data quality assessment,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 36,现场复核与逻辑审核相结合 On-spot checking and logic checking人工审核与程序审核相结合 Program checking and manual checking 自审、互审与会审相结合 Self-checking,cross-checking县队全面审核与省队、总队抽样审核相结合 Overall check at county level and sample checking at provincial level and national level,全国农村住户抽样调查数据审核 Data Check,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 37,对数据进行质量评估起始于2000年，在此之前我们对调查数据主要是进行技术审查。在数据质量评估中，我们除对抽样误差进行检查外，重点是对非抽样误差和偏差的检查。RHS data quality assessment commenced in 2000.Before that,only technical verification on data was applied.Focus in data quality assessment is non-sampling errors and variance,in addition to sampling errors.,全国农村住户抽样调查数据质量评估 Data Quality Assessment,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 38,全国农村住户抽样调查贫困统计指标 Poverty indicators,反映多元贫困 Results provided贫困线 Poverty line以收支共同衡量的贫困规模和贫困发生率 Income and living expenditure based poverty size,poverty incidence 农户收支、生产、消费情况 Household income and expenditure,production and consumption农户温饱与饮食健康 Nutrition and food availability 财产与生活设施 Living facilities and assets,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 39,市场和社会参与情况 Market access and participation(labor migrating and credit ability)教育和卫生 Drink water safety and education 基础设施和基本社会服务 Accessibility to rural infrastructure and basic social service社会平等 Equality,全国农村住户抽样调查贫困统计指标 Poverty indicators,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 40,全国农村住户抽样调查数据发布 Data dissemination,每年在全国农村贫困监测报告中发布贫困发生率、贫困规模、贫困分布、贫困特征 Poverty incidence published annually in the Rural Poverty Monitoring Report与贫困有关一些数据，比如人均纯收入分组数据，每年在中国统计年鉴、中国农村统计年鉴和中国农村住户调查年鉴中公布 Some data related to poverty such as the proportion of rural households by per capita annual net income are published annually in China Statistical Yearbook,Rural Statistical Yearbook of China and Rural Household Survey Yearbook annually.,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 41,National Poverty Monitoring Survey全国农村贫困监测抽样调查,调查范围：592个重点县 Coverage:592 national key counties 样本量：52,000 个农户 Sample size:52,000 households抽样方法：与RHS相似 Sampling method:same as in RHS数据采集方式：与RHS相似 Data collection:same as in RHS,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 42,在全国农村住户调查的基础上增加/强化：营养健康状况、儿童就学情况、借贷情况扶贫投资情况、资金使用及扶贫成果、扶贫活动参与情况（县级、村级、户级）RHS+nutrition,health condition,children schooling,credit abilityinformation on poverty reduction fund and project in the counties,villages,households,全国农村贫困监测抽样调查调查内容 Survey content,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 43,重点县分省结果：扶贫活动参与情况、资金瞄准、影响评估关于儿童就学、健康和劳动力转移更为详尽的资料Results provided for national poor key counties by province.poverty reduction project participation,targeting and impact evaluationMore detailed information on childrens schooling,health,and labor migration,全国农村贫困监测抽样调查贫困统计指标 Poverty indicators,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 44,Special poverty monitoring surveys专项贫困监测调查,三个专项世行贫困监测调查：西南（广西、贵州、云南）、秦巴（四川、陕西、宁夏）、西部（内蒙和甘肃）贫困监测调查，分别从1995年，1997年，1999年开始，每个项目持续6年。抽样方法、数据收集方法与农村住户调查和贫困监测调查类似。详细调查结果和分析每年分别发布在西南贫困监测报告、秦巴贫困监测报告和西部贫困监测报告上，其中包括贫困发生率、贫困深度、贫困强度，按文化程度、是否少数民族、离县城距离、家庭结构分解的贫困分布等内容。Surveys:South-West Poverty Monitoring Survey(SWPMS)Qinba Mountain Area Poverty Monitoring Survey(QMAPMS)Western Poverty Monitoring Survey(WPMS)Results:Poverty headcount rates,poverty gap,and poverty distribution by level of education,ethnic group,county town and household structureDissemination:Poverty Monitoring Report,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 45,优势 Strengths,可靠 Reliable科学的抽样方法 Scientific sample methods完善的问卷 Carefully developed questionnaire可靠的数据采集方法 Reliable data collection高效的数据处理程序 Efficient data processing software专业调查员和数据处理人员 Professional and skillful enumerator team and data processing staff稳定的调查网络 Stable survey network严格的数据质量控制程序 Strict data quality control procedure,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 46,优势 Strengths,客观 Objective国家统计局致力于提供高质量的数据 To produce the accurate results is the goal of NBS.垂直管理，在贫困监测中保持独立 All the provincial survey branch and county survey teams are under central management of NBS,which plays the role of independent monitor of the project.,2005 TOT Course on Poverty Analysis 47,优势 Strengths,方法不断改进 Gradually improved methodologyNBS关注扶贫政策和项目、以及贫困监测和分析方法的发展 NBS working group keeping attention on the development