德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学荷兰莱顿大学CeTIM董事长.ppt
德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学、荷兰莱顿大学 CeTIM董事长,Prof.Dr.Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD in industrial management from the University of Technology(RWTH)Aachen in Germany and a second PhD(habilitation)in general management from University of St.Gallen,Switzerland.He is lecturing MBA and Executive MBA courses at leading European business schools,e.g.St.Gallen University,Rotterdam School of Management,European Business School and ESADE Barcelona.He is professor at the University BW Munich and at the University of Leiden.He is the founder of CeTIM Center for Technology and Innovation Management,which is located at University Bw Munich and Leiden University School of Management.His research interest is about entrepreneurial management of fast growing high-tech firms and the emerging industrial structures for the information age.,Roadmapping Mobile and Digital(Broadcasting)Convergence R&D 2015移动与数字融合成长曲线2015Prof.Dr.Bernhard R.Katzy,CeTIM Xiaofeng Ma,CeTIMCeTIM.org,Presentation Outline,ROADiBROM introductionScenario of Future Media Industry Structurethe ROADiBROM workshops,ROADiBROM isa joint European China strategic roadmap about“Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence”The objective is to:develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China.Intended Outcome:Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence(NEM International Cooperation)Funded by European Commission(IST-045437:ROADIBROM SSA),Background of Roadibrom,A balanced EU-China Project Consortium,Why digital convergence?,Media convergence Video Voice Data Device convergence:Computer TV Mobile Phone,Technology Push:,Business&Societal Impact:,Changes of Individual livingEmerging business modelsImpact on society,Investigating:What will the converged world looks like?What are the critical choices we confront with?How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?,China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries,e.g.3G,Wireless Communication,and Mobile digital broadcasting etc.China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcastingChina verified as a big market for the mobile phone(480 Million users 2006)The metropolian cities in China(e.g.Shanghai,Beijing)are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services.,Why China?,Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW,Media Industry at the verge of disruptive change?!,Will it happen or not?How will it happen?What will come out?,(Moore 1991),Disruptive Innovationimplies change of institutions,firms,industries,Time,Rate ofInnovation,Process Innovation,ProductInnovation,FluidPattern,TransitionalPattern,SpecificPattern,Dominant Design,THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN,Industry level change,2015,2007,Technology(Product)Innovation DECREASE,Business and institutional Change just START!,How specific patterns look like?How they are developed?,Governments:Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovationCompanies:Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions entrants will emerge,What does it imply for Governments and industries,Signs:Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business Nokia is becoming a media company Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though not produce any content itself,Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation,ScenarioMake expectations(hopes and fears)explicitJudge on likely hood of alternative scenariosAnalyze implications,Identify gap between state-of-art and the specific Pattern,Time order Gaps(and R&D actions)=roadmap,The specific Pattern,Relevant dimensions of transformation,Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholdersStrategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues(transformation process),Workshop Objective,Presentation Outline,ROADiBROM introductionScenario of Future Media Industry Structurethe ROADiBROM workshops,Technology view:Seamless network(s)converge voice,video and data in an invisible way for users,who will be able to access services anywhere and anyhow.User view:Communities of users supported by community coaches will become most active in user centric service offerings with renowned brands,Future Media Industry Scenario,Device view:Ambient and context sensitive(sensor)will make devices“disappear”towards wearable/mobile miniature.Value Chain View:Network/Telecom operators offer infrastructure,Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches,Content production cost will disappear with“crowd sourcing”and therefore DRM will vanish.Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications,which will fund communities and dedicated professional content production,Future Media Industry Scenario,Early Examples of of a digital converged world,Execution Saddam Hussein,Technology:Filmed with mobile phoneDistributed within hours by YouTube,Industry Change:Production cost“Zero”Distributions cost“Zero”No journalist involved:freedom of interpretation/uncontrollableNo broadcasting stations,Presentation Outline,ROADiBROM introductionScenario of Future Media Industry Structurethe ROADiBROM workshops,The Brussels workshop on 11th Oct,35 participants from 10 Countries,discussed the critical challenges:Technology and DeviceValue Chain and Service,The Shanghai workshop on 2nd and 3rd Nov,70 participants,discussing the critical challenges fromTechnology and deviceService and Value Chain,The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities,www.ve-forum.org/digital convergence,谢谢!Thank you!,
