《认识再生能源》PPT课件.ppt

認識再生能源,1,內容大綱,一、地表氣溫變化與人類文明發展二、溫室氣體效應與其減緩方法三、再生能源技術發展,2,Earthrise from Apollo 8(December 24,1968),地球與月球(一):藍色與灰色的對比,The 1971 Keeling Curve:Atmospheric CO2 as measured at Mauna Loa ObservatorySource:Study of Mans Impact on Climate(SMIC),Stockholm,edited by Carroll L.Wilson and William H.Matthews,二氧化碳濃度變化圖ppm vs year,322 PPM,314 PPM,1999 Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950Petit,J,et al(1999)Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core,Antarctica,Nature 399,pp 429-436.,二氧化碳濃度變化圖ppm vs year,大氣溫度變化圖oC vs year(相對於現今氣溫),1.8 萬年,Temperature over the last 420,000 yearsSource:Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,二氧化碳濃度與大氣溫度變化圖ppm&oC vs year,Average Global Temperature Record(IPCC Climate Change 2007:The Physical Basis-Summary for Policy Makers).,近百餘年的大氣溫度變化圖oC(相對於現今氣溫)Earth warmed up by 1 C,Global Warming Predictions from an average of 3 degree global averageSource:Modelled using the HadCM3(Hadley Centre Coupled Model,Version 3),全球平均溫度增加3oC時的各地氣溫變化(19601990年起110年間),1999 Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950Source:Petit,J,et al(1999)Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core,Antarctica,Nature 399,pp 429-436.,近40萬年的氣溫變化及其影響oC(相對於40萬年前之氣溫),海平面持續升高,絕跡生物之物種數量增加,異常氣候出現頻率增加1,異常氣候出現頻率增加2:突發性,水源供應量明顯降低如地中海區及南非,穀物產量降低,開發區農產降低,珊瑚大幅受損,高緯度區農產可能增加,小型冰河消失,糧食,水資源,生態系統,極端氣候,突變性氣候,全球溫升 與工業革命前比較,模擬計算與實測氣溫之比對一:只考慮自然變化因素時Climate change due to natural causes(solar variations,volcanoes,etc.),模擬計算比較 model predictions,模擬計算與實測氣溫之比對二:考慮自然變化與人為破壞因素時Climate change due to natural causes and human generated greenhouse gases,木炭經濟世代-工業革命之前 每百年才看得到經濟成長 點狀經濟活動 煤炭經濟世代-十九世紀 每十年就會有成長 線狀經濟活動 石油經濟世代-二十世紀 每年都會有成長 網狀及立體網狀經濟活動 電力經濟世代-二十一世紀 每季都會有成長 Cyberspace（*引自許志義、陳澤義能源經濟學）,人類文明發展(能源與經濟),Conceptual and stylised representation of waves of innovationSource:TNEP(2005),人類近代文明發展(六浪潮),六大創新浪潮,第六波:永續發展節能減碳再生能源,第一至五波:高耗能源及CO2產率,能源消費與所得,TAIWAN2004,(2004),美國,Global Energy Consumption,1998,Total:12.8 TW U.S.:3.3 TW(99 Quads),How long will our fossil fuels last?,Courtesy Nate Lewis,初級能源蘊藏量及可使用年數,資料來源：BP statistical review of world energy June 2005；World nuclear Association Aug.2004註：*表示2003年數據；*表示以目前技術而言，鈾蘊藏量可使用53年，惟考慮使用過之核燃料在處理回收後重複使用，則其使用年數可增加5-10倍。,煤炭之可開採年限最長，石油之可開採年限最短。,個別能源供需,世界初級能源消費成長過去20年間(19842004年)，世界初級能源消費之年平均成長率為1.9，亞太地區能源消費之年平均成長率為4.5。,7,002,8,310,10,224,單位：百萬公噸油當量,資料來源：BP statistical review of world energy June 2005,綜合能源供需,年,百萬公噸油當量,10,224,百萬公噸油當量,9,801,百萬公噸油當量,8,206,6.5%6.022.838.326.4,6.2%6.123.937.226.6,6.2%6.123.736.827.2,資料來源：BP statistical review of world energy June 2005,綜合能源供需（續）,世界初級能源消費結構化石燃料消費逐年成長，能源消費結構無重大改變。,World production of oil and gas is predicted to peak within 10-40 years,World Energy Consumption by Region:1970-2020,Chu,內容大綱,一、地表氣溫變化與人類文明發展二、溫室氣體效應與其減緩方法三、再生能源技術發展,24,綜合研究所,溫室效應所帶來的氣溫變化(一),溫室效應的來源：,Pattern of absorption bands created by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and their effect on both solar radiation and upgoing thermal radiation,From Wikipedia,the free encyclopediahttp:/,直射日光能,反射熱幅射能,溫室效應所帶來的氣溫變化,（資料來源：IPCC,2001),Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions broken down into 8 different sectors for the year 2000.,From Wikipedia,the free encyclopediahttp:/,The projected temperature increase for a range of greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios(the coloured bands).The black line in middle of the shaded area indicates best estimates;the red and the blue lines the likely limits.From the work of IPCC AR4,2007.,From Wikipedia,the free encyclopediahttp:/,溫室效應和地球溫暖化,自1890年以來至今地球的年平均溫度上升0.61.0攝氏度,溫室氣體濃度升高造成地球溫暖化，一辦認定六種溫室氣體：CO2,CH4,N2O,HFCs,PFC,SF6,*Tom,全球為CO2減量皆賦予節約能源重要角色。節約能源對CO2減量貢獻：2025年約占70%、2050年約占64%,EIA Base Case 2008,2008 EIA CO2 Baseline is Lower than 2007 EIA CO2 Baseline,EIA Base Case 2007,Lower Demand Growth Rate 30GW more Renewables8 GW more NuclearLess natural gas,U.S.Electric Generation-Full Portfolio,Coal,Coal with CCS,Gas,Nuclear,Hydro,Gas and non-captured coal are the only supply options paying a CO2 cost,The vast majority of electricity supply is CO2-free,Wind,Public Policy(RPS)would modify this economic allocation,U.S.Electric Generation Limited Portfolio,Coal,Gas,Nuclear,Gas(half the CO2 intensity of coal)pays a significant CO2 cost 2.8x greater than NG electricity production in 2005Highly improbable.,With a less de-carbonized supply,electricity load must declineto meet the CO2 emissions target,Wind,Hydro,Biomass,Breaking the Climate Deadlock:A Global Deal for our Low Carbon Future TOKYO,JAPAN-speech by Rt Hon Tony Blair at the Report Launch,碳交易市場制度,核能研究所,內容大綱,一、地表氣溫變化與人類文明發展二、溫室氣體效應與其減緩方法三、再生能源技術發展,40,綜合研究所,To Address Climate Change,we must utilize renewable energy,Carbon/kWh for atmospheric stabilization at 450,550 ppm,kg(carbon)/kWh of Electricity,Advanced coal technologies,Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850:265 ppmAtmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000:370 ppm,我國再生能源發電潛能 資料來源：能源計畫辦公室，2006。,Background新能源科技發展歷程,資料來源:Renewables in Globe Energy Supply,IES 2007,HDR:Hard Dry Rock;EGS:Enhanced Geothermal System),Solar PV Technology太陽光電技術,There are 23 Nations with PV manufacturers,among which China has the most companies.全球23個國家生產太陽電池，以中國大陸廠商數最多。A steady increase in the total number of companies,90 in 2006,109 by 2007.廠商持續增加，2006年生產廠商90家，2007年109家。A rapid 40%annual growth in production output,-Total capacity：2,300 MWp(2005)；3,210 MWp(2006)-World production output：1,782 MWp in 2005；2,520 MWp in 2006.全球產能、產量快速 成長，年成長率40%-全球產能：2005年2,303 MWp；2006年3,210 MWp-全球產量：2005年1,782 MWp；2006年2,520 MWp,Source:ITRI,PV NEWS/REW(2007/06),Global Development Status 全球發展現況,Projected Market Size for Solar PV 未來應用市場需求規模預估,World PV installation growth rate exceed 40%per year during 20002006,and the growth rate is expected to exceed 20%for 20062010.20002006年全球設置量平均成長率43.7%，預估20062010年為23%。The output of PV industries is US$100b,but with insufficient upstream manufacturers causing a shortage in raw materials,and there are fierce competition among downstream players.World leading companies are working toward vertical integration。2006年全球產值規模仟億美元。惟上游廠商數少，料源不足；下游競爭者眾，國際大廠 朝垂直整合供應鏈發展。Si-based PV cells would still be primary products by 2020,development of new PV cells has accelerated,next generation thin-film solar PV will pick-up production by 2010。矽晶太陽電池至2020年 仍是市場主流；新材料 太陽電池發展加速，次 世代薄膜太陽電池2010年 起將上揚。,Source:ITRI(2007.6.),Source:ITRI(2007.6.),Source：Richard M.Swanson,SunPower Corporation,2005.,Technology Development Trend Driven by Cost Reduction 未來技術發展趨勢-降低成本為關鍵,Roadmap of Japans PV Electricity,Source：Overview of“PV Roadmap Toward 2030”,NEDO,Japan,June 2004.,Keys to Cost Reduction for Si-based PV:矽晶太陽電池降低成本的關鍵,Improving Efficiency:16%25%提升效率:16%25%Thinner Wafer:220 m 120 m 厚度降低:220 m 120 mIncreasing Cell Size:125 mm 200 mm 增加太陽電池(cell)大小:125 mm 200 mmBetter Crystal Growth Technology 改善結晶成長技術Novel Wafer Cutting Method 改善切片技術Larger Manufacturing Plant:200 MWp 500 MWp 增加製造廠產能:200 MWp 500 MWpMore Automation 更自動化的生產,Thin Film Solar Cell(TFSC)Roadmap各國薄膜太陽電池發展Roadmap,Si thin-film solar cell market is expected to have accelerated growth rate by 2010,hence many governmental projects are focusing in its R&D 預估 2010年矽薄膜太陽電池市場將進入大幅成長期，各國政府積極投入相關研發 工作。,USA,Jap.,Korea,2002 Thin Film PV module R&DReduce Produce Cost:100Yen/Wp Si TFSC Efficiency 12%,large area,multi-junction,thin film solar cellReduce Produce Cost:75Yen/Wp Si TFSC Efficiency 14%,hetero-junction,high efficiency,innovative solar cell,Reduce Produce Cost:50Yen/Wp Si TFSC Efficiency 18%,2003-2006(Primitive stage):Develop Low Cost、High Reliability Product.2006-2009(Universal stage):Next Generation solar cell R&D,PV system technology2009-2012(Low Price stage):Next Generation solar cell,PV system and scale up technology,2020:Market forecast 3.2GWp/year Growth Rate 50%,2004:TFPV Module Market feed in 2006:BIPV Module Market feed in 2010:Market Growth Rate 30%,Low cost($/m2)on BIPV:0.6 1.43 5 10m2,Equipment design based on TFT infrastructure.Semi-transparent Si Thin Film Solar cell 2002-2006 developed resources:Thin Film(26%)Crystalline Silicon(24%)New Concept(13%)III-V(3%),20082013 Si TFSC Efficiency 10%(Industry)Si TFSC Efficiency 12%(Applied),Thin film PV Market 10GWpSi TFSC Efficiency 12%(I)Si TFSC Efficiency 15%(A),Thin film type PV Market 130GWpSi TFSC Efficiency 15%(I),Euro.,Source：ITRI/PVTC，2007/08,Wind Energy Technology風力發電技術,Global Installation Status 全球設置現況,Data source：BTM Consult ApS,The global wind power installed capacity reached 74,000MW by the end of 2006.迄2006年底全球風力發電總裝置容量逾 74,000 MWThe output value of global wind power stood at approximately NT$700 billion in 2006.2006年風力發電全球市場產值約7,000億新台幣。A consistent demand will come from Europe and the demand from North America,India and China will increase greatly.An estimated output value of wind power will be up to NT$6,000 billion within 5 years.歐洲地區將維持一貫的市場需求，而北美、印度與中國將會有大幅的成長，預估未來5年 風機市場產值將 高達6兆新台幣。,Future Growth Rates and Cost Trends 未來成長率及成本趨勢,Danish wind power consultancy BTM pointed out that by 2011,the annual growth rate of global wind power will be 17.4%,and thereafter drop to 14%considering some uncertainties.At that time,the global cumulated capacity will be up to 455,000 MW，which will supply 4%of global electricity.丹麥專業BTM公司預估，指出未來至2011年全球風力發電仍會有17.4%的年成長率，另基於某些不確定因素，進一步預測2011年之後平均成長率約為14%，屆時2016年全球累積裝置容量將可達455,000 MW，可提供全球4%的電力供給。Mature technologies and mass production lower the cost rapidly.Currently,wind energy can compete with traditional power in regions with good wind conditions.The electricity cost is approximately$0.030.04/kWh.由於技術成熟及量產應用使得成本迅速降低，目前發電成本在風力良好的地方已可與傳統發電競爭，每度電成本約 34 美分左右。,Global Technology Development 未來全球技術發展方向,Technology development on wind energy evaluation 風能評估技術發展Wind turbine development trends 風力機發展趨勢Offshore application and development 離岸應用發展,Global Market Status 全球市場現況,In 2006,more than 55 billion liters of ethanol and biodiesel were produced and the market value reached NT$1,650 billion(based on 30 NT$/liter)全球2006年生質柴油與酒精之總產量超過 5,500萬公秉，以NT$30/公升計算，全球產值達新台幣1兆6,500億元。,Source：Renewables in Global Energy Supply,IEA 2007,Note:More than 70%of global bioethanol were produced in Brazil&U.S.；about 80%of global biodiesel were produced in EUSources：EU and U.S.Policies on Biofuel:Potential Impacts on Developing Countries,GMF 2007,Current Biofuel Productions in Major Countries/Region主要國家(地區)生質燃料發展現況,Forecast of Biofuel Demands in Major Countries/Region主要國家(地區)生質燃料未來發展,Biofuel Technology生質燃料技術,Targets of Biofuel Applications in Different Countries 世界主要國家生質燃料應用推廣目標,Ref1.Energy Policy Act of 20052.State of the Union Address 2007 Energy3.An Energy Policy for Europe,EC,20074.Renewable Energy in China,APEC EGNRET 29th meeting5.Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan6.Petrobras Developments in Biofuels,Blend ratios based on energy content in EU and on volume in US,Brazil and Japan.,Prediction of Biofuel Cost 生質燃料成本之發展預估,：Bioethanol present cost ranges：Bioethanol cost estimates by 2030ES:Ethanol from sugar caneEC:Ethanol from cornEB:Ethanol from beetEW:Ethanol from wheatELC:Ethanol from lignocellulose,：Biodiesel present cost ranges：Biodiesel cost estimates by 2030BA:Biodiesel from animal fatBV:Biodiesel from vegetable oilFT:Fisher Tropsch synthesis liquids：Domestic Biodiesel(wasted cooking oil price12-21NT$/l)：Domestic Bioethanol(fresh sweet potato 2 NT$/kg;dried sweet potato 10.5 NT$/kg;corn 8.13 NT$/kg;molasses 3.5NT$/kg);sugarcane1.57NT$/kg),Ref.：prepared by ITRI,Global Trend of Technology Development未來全球技術發展趨勢,As the biofuel objectives amended to more challenging,the harvest of energy crops will increase and more biomass resources will be considered as feedstock.隨著歐美各國生質燃料政策目標的提升，不僅能源作物產量將大幅度攀升，料源亦將由 能源作物擴展為廣泛的生質物。Asia will play a significant role in the Bio-resources supply chain,and will be the important Bio-oil Field in the world.亞洲地區在未來生質能源供應鏈的角色將日益重要，更將躍升為全球關鍵的生質油田。Cost is the key factor,not depending on the increase of crude oil price,but on the reduction of new energies price,that is the major concern of investors.關鍵是價格，但並非上漲的油價，而是下滑的新能源售價，才是新能源受到各國投資 者追捧的最主要原因。Pursuing sustainable development of energy,environment and economy(in considerations of cost,GHG reduction,water,land,ecology and food)追求環境、能源、經濟之永續發展(包括：溫室氣體減量、水資源、土地利用、生態、糧食等多元考量)，為未來生質燃料產製技術發展主軸：Diversify feedstocks 料源多元化Increase the yield 高產率Break through the limitation of biofuel utilization 突破應用介面之限制Develop co-products of high value 開發副產品附加價值,Ocean Energy Technology海洋能源技術,Ocean Energy Technology includes:ocean current,tidal energy,wave energy,thermal energy conversion technologies.海洋能源技術包括：海流能源技術、潮汐能源技術、波浪能源技術、海洋溫差 能源技術等。Many types of ocean current power generations are tested in the ocean,and prototype of wave energy power plants are under construction nowadays.國際上諸多型式之海流發電正在海中測試，先導型之波浪發電廠正在建造中。The current development is equivalent to the technologies developed for offshore wind farm 10 years ago.The continue testing of the technologies for efficiency improvement and cost reduction will make the utilization of the ocean energy be available in the future.目前之發展大約與離岸風力發電十年前之技術水平相當，持續進行提升效率與 降低成本之技術測試，可使海洋能源利用成為可預見的未來。,Current Status 國際發展現況,Ocean Energy Global Production and Growth Rate 海洋能源全球產值與成長率,Cost Trend(US$/KWH)成本趨勢(US$/KWH),(Business Communications Company,Inc.,2004),Global Technology Development Trend 未來全球技術發展趨勢,Wave Energy:Commercialized products are available.Large wave energy power generation farms are planned,devices capacity are from kW to MW.波浪能：發展商品化設備，規劃建置大型電廠。Ocean Thermal Energy:Cold water pipe laying technology is improving,the heat exchange efficiency is increasing,and mega-floating OTEC power plants is under construction.溫差能：提升冷水管鋪設技術與熱交換器效率，並建置電廠。Tidal Energy：New technologies for avoiding ecology impact were used.Hundreds MWs power plants are under development(China 300MW,Korea 254 MW).潮汐能：利用新技術減少生態衝擊。建置大型發電廠(中國300MW，韓國254MW)Ocean Current Energy：Toward the development of MWs device.Continue testing new devices and execute grid connection.Large ocean current power plants are being planned.Deep ocean current energy utilization are being investigated and researched.海流能：發展MW級設備，降低裝置建造成本，提升轉換效率。規劃建置大型 發電廠及開發深海流能利用技術。,International Development USA國際發展現況美國,General Motor(GM),1.US companies are actively developing PEM fuel cell vehicles.Major players include GM and Ford.Typical fuel cell capacity is 80kW.Road tests are currently underway.美國積極開發車用PEM燃料電池，主要有通用(GM)與福特(Ford)兩大公司，車用主要規格為80kW,進行試運轉階段。2.Stationary PEM fuel cell are in field demonstration.美國定製型PEM燃料電池進行長期示範運轉。,Source:GM 公司網站fuel+cell,Cogen,Plug Power Gencore(5kWbackup Power-Hydrogen),FCS 1200,Idatech FCS 1200(1.2kW電力-甲醇),Fuel Cells Technology燃料電池技術,The hydrogen road for FC Vehicles in California USA美國加州氫能公路示範計畫,International Development Japan國際發展現況-日本,.(Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun,1.Japan Governments subsidization for fuel cells:Japan 6 million/kW-system(480units)in 2005;Japan 4.5 million/kW-system(777 units)in 2006.日本政府燃料電池補助獎勵：2005年補助日幣600萬/kW系統(480件)；2006 年補助日幣450萬/kW系統(777件)2.Mass production of more than 10,000