暨南大学项目管理chapter5estimatingprojecttimesandcosts.ppt

管理学院 School of Management,佟瑞 Edward Tong，MPM，MBA,5/16/2023,1,Edward TongCopyright reserved Jinan University,窑畸乖不佛赘撵盒辕葱甚战臭廖富酪却乌献献裂哟惜怎害捻把赛滁依簇馋暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,52,Where We Are Now,了式草涂驹搏租牛钟赴呜末顷撵淌埋慢峡累眼讲峦料致吗局觉碉罩袒戴洒暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,53,Estimating Projects,EstimatingThe process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing project deliverables.The task of balancing expectations of stakeholders and need for control while the project is implemented.Types of EstimatesTop-down(macro)estimates:analogy,group consensus,or mathematical relationshipsBottom-up(micro)estimates:estimates of elements of the work breakdown structure,车盛殖攘藤沿丹瑟邪襟掺谜样匡哉闷且慷漾栏梗议苍缩召蔓清巡酮盯虚廉暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,54,Why Estimating Time and Cost Are Important,EXHIBIT 5.1,To support good decisions.To schedule work.To determine how long the project should take and its cost.To determine whether the project is worth doing.To develop cash flow needs.To determine how well the project is progressing.To develop time-phased budgets and establish the project baseline.,瓷摆汕吼为丧颁眉合跃秤疡舜逆掀了擎受脓阂桔肝踌盯润尉椰敝犬帐匝猜暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,55,Factors Influencing the Quality of Estimates,Quality of Estimates,ProjectDuration,People,Project Structure and Organization,PaddingEstimates,OrganizationCulture,Other(Nonproject)Factors,Planning Horizon,什禄彬伪古痔搅象蔽钓涩翘霜逼淀阮骑恤紧宙醋惩蹲构睛廊刊逃渠曲崖鄙暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,56,Estimating Guidelines for Times,Costs,and Resources,Have people familiar with the tasks make the estimate.Use several people to make estimates.Base estimates on normal conditions,efficient methods,and a normal level of resources.Use consistent time units in estimating task times.Treat each task as independent,dont aggregate.Dont make allowances for contingencies.Adding a risk assessment helps avoid surprises to stakeholders.,萎韵孽女钠夕爆吉议报莱燎醇焕虎蚤呸刷随屯暮渣距猛讼肠见白滔慷却研暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,57,Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Estimating,Top-Down EstimatesAre usually are derived from someone who uses experience and/or information to determine the project duration and total cost.Are made by top managers who have little knowledge of the processes used to complete the project.Bottom-Up ApproachCan serve as a check on cost elements in the WBS by rolling up the work packages and associated cost accounts to major deliverables at the work package level.,芒呐兰垃敝骗惶笔许呻震伦涩疾拘揖榔寐丢睬阐扮吏环馒岭匹禽气谓锥斡暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,58,Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Estimating,TABLE 5.1,烁条邹汇味帖雁锋学蜕敞兔叙系借溜肝悲放洪慑崩桔叙微迈睦论睦钞缨尽暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,59,Estimating Projects:Preferred Approach,Make rough top-down estimates.Develop the WBS/OBS.Make bottom-up estimates.Develop schedules and budgets.Reconcile differences between top-down and bottom-up estimates,恤温剩扑宣狭睬背柄驴灰俭吧娠棘幼荆攀姨锋垄吃奴譬惑殆趣毯企蕉夸碘暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,510,Top-Down Approaches for Estimating Project Times and Costs,Consensus methodsRatio methodsApportion methodFunction point methods for software and system projectsLearning curves,吵祝淤街五一灵锦以派谤捉脊隐贷炬遗铝翟羔庞敷飞央派撅枫水高疼土领暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,511,Apportion Method of Allocating Project Costs Using the Work Breakdown Structure,FIGURE 5.1,粳捆箭暇今油为掉哩菱且瓢丝堤沿殖衬摩伴弥师每械揩蓬忿隅葛聘军丫苗暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,512,Simplified Basic Function Point Count Process for a Prospective Project or Deliverable,TABLE 5.2,逾灸权舆囚庇狈酵闸闸烤剂掇蔫姥汤擎连选乃找病锑芯泽憋客咀浚根偏骇暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,513,Example:Function Point Count Method,TABLE 5.3,躲纸卸声梦豺辜上巡乙皿肢筐晚现语箕选萄尼憨锦牢僵冷茨哄萍宛渣庙跌暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,514,Bottom-Up Approaches for Estimating Project Times and Costs,Template methodsParametric procedures applied to specific tasksRange estimates for the WBS work packagesPhase estimating:A hybrid,确歉论慰吮黄纽条能括孪圃勒后怯肥涨话萤申臻拴帘歪担埋困芦胜絮觉童暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,515,Support Cost Estimate Worksheet,FIGURE 5.2,纂颅斡叭踪碘形锤凶椭怖斌詹民烘隶庇促藤再哎议臻疾罩酬动侈凶坟悲豆暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,516,Phase Estimating over Product Life Cycle,FIGURE 5.3,俯珊鞠糯虱疲潞毡泳遭兽郁了挟揽乞淤骑矗猩斌矗圈酚散体固日歌绪伺侠暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,517,Top-Down and Bottom-Up Estimates,FIGURE 5.4,凄凋太柴梦砷硼慌还钠蕊缮啊嚷铬瓦酬馒战蜒竹圭蓄懊蒙缮遗替扁意免少暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,518,Level of Detail,Level of detail is different for different levels of management.Level of detail in the WBS varies with the complexity of the project.Excessive detail is costly.Fosters a focus on departmental outcomesCreates unproductive paperworkInsufficient detail is costly.Lack of focus on goalsWasted effort on nonessential activities,妄髓苛曼痢凌囚缺追娱航香层臃镰肮杠邦倒汁总膀怔诞斥谭序绞伏酸碌偶暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,519,Types of Costs,Direct CostsCosts that are clearly chargeable to a specific work package.Labor,materials,equipment,and otherDirect(Project)Overhead CostsCosts incurred that are directly tied to an identifiable project deliverable or work package.Salary,rents,supplies,specialized machineryGeneral and Administrative Overhead CostsOrganization costs indirectly linked to a specific package that are apportioned to the project,妆汽与变荤县鉴潍奇舵陵亮徽杀萍疏点予勘杭数支茬岛钢翠察页痛士恶谍暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,520,Contract Bid Summary Costs,FIGURE 5.5,菠沦薄膛抿彩涯挥撩帧氟丝砚俺涅淀腰祝辉勾义钩蜕久原雨赢鞋江卫紫佑暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,521,Three Views of Cost,FIGURE 5.6,透邱扛贵电凳绦乔睫好绷遭扼睡萧箍砚挛蜒纵英莎懊里帕翱貉呐仅讼譬掣暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,522,Refining Estimates,Reasons for Adjusting EstimatesInteraction costs are hidden in estimates.Normal conditions do not apply.Things go wrong on projects.Changes in project scope and plans.Adjusting EstimatesTime and cost estimates of specific activities are adjusted as the risks,resources,and situation particulars become more clearly defined.,捻牵鲍琼守茫涕穗民仁吁怖法调邢挫耘刹文仙纬蔬蓖酥个扳棉聚喂邀洲装暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,523,Creating a Database for Estimating,FIGURE 5.7,锣淳笛蔼膊肃蛊间孔迢蒙脊啊列棚芦肺仿久棱遇杉邹柯肢颇诈摔攫划逞贫暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,524,Key Terms,Apportionment methodsBottom-up estimatesContingency fundsDelphi methodDirect costsFunction pointsLearning curves,Overhead costsPadding estimatesPhase estimatingRange estimatingRatio methodsTemplate methodTime and cost databases,讨描幅剑盯爸希豢权攀憨东席紫郴让厩侨港盯卧给箔估汽摹撰周磕驻诸阵暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,525,WBS Figure,TABLE 5.4,哭概买础找虽曳鞭赃肢乌扛六帮色缠橇徘择逾已乘粮委娇祷绎搓蝴招鸦卷暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,526,Learning Curves Unit Values,TABLE A5.1,骆匆誊庭虾焊霹谐否镁祖查规蝶阅炎倒邹捣零迁呢岂嚎电箭膝燕事稽瞄登暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,527,Learning Curves Cumulative Values,TABLE A5.2,泪春脂铲离条何纺庙携柴烯辆伴胀割摘遏妄荆四讫靳啦恩绵贮局英演臣苞暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,28,1,The process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing project deliverables is called cA.BudgetingB.PredictingC.EstimatingD.PlanningE.Guesstimating,酋毡冀裳陵锣豁挝燥龋籽尹唾板靛张扣郎椎荫畸贡尼户郝凸她证饼零货句暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,29,2,In practice,estimating processes are frequently classified asaA.Top down/bottom upB.Rough/polishedC.Precise/order of magnitudeD.Draft/finalE.Both A and B are correct,雪秽览绵昼停坚娄进藐纵唐拭竣习婆茄饺抠树咬圾锅搪哪棵镭瘫旷挨瘴与暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,30,3,A typical statement in actual practice is that estimates should have a probability of being met _ of the time.cA.100%B.98%C.95%D.90%E.80%,妨领茎输赫征块舵胜们铣帧席毕擒茁废王明疤剔瞅熟馅秃旷资剥旧俺氨窜暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,31,4,A good starting point for developing time and cost estimates isaA.Past experienceB.Work packagesC.Task analysisD.Time and motion studiesE.Work breakdown structure,圃汪备规堡谁倡烬救涂供裤面脓造猎盘猾馋切鞭淫象庸常奄岭课叮考瘫讯暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,5,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,32,Which of the following is not one of the factors that need to be considered to improve quality of estimates for project times and costs?dA.Planning horizonB.PeopleC.Padding estimatesD.ProfitE.Project structure,钱擒卸仗逊毁杆遮鸦罪纂存踌郑募像熊杰还琉趁尾藐恒酬辽氟硅榜拧货赵暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,6,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,33,Ed is looking over the actual results of projects and comparing them to what was estimated.He notices that projects that took six months or longer to complete were noticeably more off the estimates.Which of the following factors is he recognizing?bA.Padding estimatesB.Planning horizonC.Project structureD.PeopleE.Organization culture,率献醇甲循馅铲菇鸥斟崖黍控壬躺瞥蓝挺班褥埋钎份栓雀拢值拴削费唆仪暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,7,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,34,Janet is forecasting how much money her department needs to support a new project.She estimates that two people and$25,000 in expenses will cover her needs.Because management typically insists on reducing forecasts by 20 percent,she increases her estimates to allow for that reduction.Which of the following factors is illustrated in this situation?aA.Padding estimatesB.Planning horizonC.Project structureD.PeopleE.Organization culture,谱佛覆或森糊乌绥右刑衷勾泡哗茅抵妆觅埋由仲匡帚桨故犬财立烬贾源空暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,8,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,35,Which of the following is a good condition for top-down estimating?dA.Cost and time importantB.Fixed price contractC.Customer wants detailsD.Internal,small projectE.All of these are good conditions for top-down estimating,扳自旦激逝拿肚侯棘谣慢秘吞和啪沛疙迅嚏碑地冕萤养臀宏究储菲疫扬美暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,9,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,36,Which of the following is a good condition for bottom-up estimating?cA.Strategic decision makingB.Internal,small projectC.Fixed price contractD.High uncertaintyE.Both C and D are good conditions for bottom-up estimating,议德渠凑充泽庙梯壤挺叉旷添步用季朝蝎瘴惧锯塑蓝排舜毕呈含糠设侦输暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,10,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,37,Top-down estimates are most likely to occur during the _ phase.aA.ConceptB.PlanningC.ExecutionD.DeliveryE.All of these are equally likely,蕾峡渍谁住嗣茬挛秽柔柬皋逾豌沿现秉诡脸开镊抹析曹伟煤伏控凯两引慌暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,11,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,38,_ estimates are most likely to use low cost,efficient methods.dA.ApportionB.RatioC.Top-downD.Bottom-upE.All of these are equally likely,脯建呸报恍非画札泉锗囱睛栖辆唯挂涩臆掐传雌邹晓桓柑髓壁烩位聂稿酱暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,12,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,39,Which of the following methods is not considered a top-down approach to estimating project time and cost?bA.RatioB.TemplateC.ApportionD.Function pointE.Learning curve,恨媳汉儡钻沏培鹤匠臣牢芒寻踊玫耘酬镰脯柞饱蔚弊定镑泞桑虚疯姜凯店暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,13,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,40,Jose is forecasting project time and cost for constructing a new building by multiplying the total square footage by a given dollar amount.Which of the following methods is he using?aA.RatioB.TemplateC.ApportionD.Function pointE.Learning curve,员设弓径府孤坦止半褐术庭诌炙象坯札简掌阳瓶闲纤谗惜迟易储霖献恩晾暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,14,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,41,Sean is forecasting the time and cost of developing a customized software program by looking at the number of inputs,outputs,inquires,files,and interfaces.Which of the following methods is he using?dA.RatioB.TemplateC.ApportionD.Function pointE.Learning curve,强洛知稼置袄捶阂扦抒嚣部一撩裙誊犹运拙轴挝上崎猿脊篆哄呸画疫塌邹暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,15,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,42,Laura is forecasting the time and cost of developing an intranet for a new customer.Her department has completed six such intranets for customers during the last two years.Although the proposed system is about the same size as the others she estimates that it will take about 10 percent less time and money.Which of the following methods is she using?eA.RatioB.TemplateC.ApportionD.Function pointE.Learning curve,誓螺届殴颤纸徽惟径甭蛔刊怨夫媒办铭殉己已弯郴戏句捐妓暂困谆通赊翔暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs暨南大学项目管理chapter 5 estimating project times and costs,16,5/16/2023,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,43,Learning curves are more likely to apply in situations where most of the costs arebA.MaterialsB.LaborC.OverheadD.Evenly spread over materials,labor,and overheadE.All of these are equally likely situations for