BOT项目的金融风险【外文翻译】 .doc

本科毕业论文（设计）外 文 翻 译原文：The Financial Risks in BOT Projects.In this research, financial risks are considered as the risks that have a negative impact on the cash flows of the financial plan in a way that endangers projects viability or limits profitability. It includes about several levels of Market-rooted risks.Loan riskThe loans granted to the concessionaire to fund the construction of a BOT project can be of several types; short- or long-term loans, with fixed or floating interest rate, with simple or compound interest. The type of the loan, the cost, which includes all necessary costs to take it out and the interest rates to repay it and any necessary specific provisions are included in the specific loan system that governs the whole lifecycle of the project.The appropriate percentage of loans to the overall funding plan is a function of many parameters including, among others, considerations of conflicting interests between the lenders and the borrowers, credibility of the lending organizations and the borrowers, ability for additional loans or renewal of the existing ones and safety of the debt amortization schedule.A non-protected loan system against all risks would discourage potential lenders from funding the project in the first place or would force them to take extra security measures for their investment with a consequent overburden of the total costs. Difficulties of the concessionaire in serving the debt of loans can cause imposition of heavier loan conditions such as additional guarantees, stricter supervision measures, higher interest rates, faster debt amortization, restrictions in dividends and stricter requirements for balanced liquidity. In extreme cases, lenders could even claim to undertake the project.Fall of demand The demand for the product or service offered by a BOT project is not guaranteed. The future preference by the end-users may be adversely affected by several parameters. The economic environment is one of the most important of them. An increase of the inflation or a devaluation of the currency reduce the purchasing ability of the users and, therefore, diminish demand. The guarantees provided through the off-take agreement only partially cover the concessionaire if the existing rate of return is rarely sufficient. The risk of the fall of the products or services demand is very important and should be confronted adequately.Competition risk Projects developed under the BOT scheme are usually serving public needs either individually or as parts of an infrastructure network. Satisfying such needs (energy, transportation, communication, etc.) is primarily a states responsibility, but there are great potential of involvement of private enterprises depending on the host countrys economic system. As a result, each market, depending upon different public needs, may be a monopoly, oligopoly or an open market. The fact that BOT projects are mainly large infrastructure projects most often renders the concession company a player in an oligopoly market with the consequent advantages (e.g. larger market share, few competitors) and disadvantages (e.g. pricing policy imposed by the market and tough competition). However, the case of the competition in an open market is equally possible. Therefore, at the planning, bidding and negotiation stage, it is absolutely necessary for the potential developers to:(1) identify correctly the markets competitive characteristics in order to determine the revenues for the services/products offered in the future; and(2) prepare a sound commercial package that will guarantee viability and profitability of the project. A thorough, detailed and faultless research on issues such as structure and size of the market, market shares, intention of competition, competitive advantages concerning quality, promotion, etc. results in a commercial appraisal of the project. This appraisal offers a sound base of arguments for guarantees in the negotiation stage concerning:(1) protection from competitive projects (including those in public ownership);(2) low rates of development and deficiencies of the public authorities planning; and finally(3) the projects viability and profitability.On the contrary, inefficient estimation of the competition issues jeopardizes the projects success.Taxation risk The tax rate is always an important factor for the realization of an investment. The concessionaire is interested in retaining a steady tax system for the whole lifecycle of the project. That can be achieved through special tax provisions that refer to foreign investments. Such provisions are common in developing countries in order to attract foreign funds to the national economy, and they include reduced tax rates for corporations, tax shields, etc. However, a steady tax regime for a period of more than 30 years is not always feasible. Because there is no particular tax treatment for certain investments, but different kind of provisions refer in general to foreign funds invested in a host country, it is expected that such provisions are amendable. A tax reform that imposes heavier taxes for both corporations and individuals can affect adversely the profitability of the project. Increases of tariffs, taxes and custom duties, cancellation of tax relieves or exemptions and similar provisions directly reduce profits for the concession company. On the other hand, a heavier taxation leads to the reduction of the consumers purchasing power, thus causing fall of demand. The stronger such a contingency would be,the more discouragement for potential investors it could cause.Fluctuation of the inflation rate The inflation rate affects the project from the construction to the transfer phase. An increase of the inflation causes increase of production costs (supplies, wages, operation costs, etc.), which is transferred to the products or services purchase value to cover the loses. Furthermore, this affects negatively the demand as the purchasing power of the end users is also suffering from increases of inflation rates. Therefore, income from revenues can be seriously affected and cause significant deviations from the economic plan of the project. Another impact of inflation increase may refer to the repayment of the loan. If this is agreed on a different currency than the local one, then increase of the inflation and convertibility will cause an unanticipated loss of profit.Problems may also arise by a constant reduction of the general pricing level (deflation). The risks connected with deflation may be more serious than the ones connected with inflation. That is because there is reduced efficiency of the traditional economic means to face such a problem and, therefore, unconventional and extremely interventional measures can be taken (most often related to the monetary policy). If such measures proved inefficient, there would be a worsening of the economic conditions, which mainly affects the productivity and employment. Such an economic environment undermines the viability and profitability of a BOT project.Currency risks In most cases financing of a BOT project is achieved with foreign investments. Therefore, special care should be taken in order to avoid currency risks. Such risks could be related to the exchange rate (Kapila and Hendrickson, 2001) or the ability to exchange local currency to foreign currency or transfer it to foreign bank accounts.Because the revenue and consequently the whole income will be in local currency, while loan repayments and maybe supplies will be in foreign currency, a downfall of the exchange rates could be very dangerous for the project.Equally dangerous could be any obstacles to convert the currency freely and transfer it abroad. This contingency could generate loss of profit either by preventing exploitation of foreign bank accounts privileges or by additional convertibility costs to lift restrictions.Unfavourable international economyThe main stakeholders in BOT projects have business activities that are not limited by geographical borders. In the current globalized economic environment with the national economies being more and more linked to each other, any business attempt is linked and affected by the overall business environment. An international economy in recession can be a drawback for the success of a BOT project at all stages of its lifecycle.Unfavourable economy of the country of the main stakeholdersThe economic environment of the countries where in the main stakeholders are located and operate most of their business may be important for the projects progress. An economy with deficiencies or lack of stability may adversely affect the status of the domestic companies and therefore impact their capabilities to successfully carry on with undertaken projects.High bidding costs Bidding costs for a BOT project may be very high, especially if it is a large project.Visits to the host country by executives and related staff, gathering of information regarding clarifications for the bid, legal issues and host markets parameters, costs for advisers, development of feasibility studies and development of bid documents constitute, along with others, the parameters that define the bidding expenditures. Potential developers of a BOT project should avoid cost overruns at this very early stage of the process when the project is not even yet awarded.High design costs At the bidding stage, designs are developed to propose technical solutions for the project in hand and prove capability and efficiency of the bidders to carry out the project successfully. A bidder is competitive if he proposes innovative solutions that facilitate the construction process, reduce cost, accelerate schedule and ensure the quality of the final product. The effort of the designers and overall cost of the designs should be properly taken into account to avoid redundant expenses at such a very early stage of the process.Errors in forecasting the demand A successful commercial exploitation of a BOT project is very significant, because it makes the whole project viable and hopefully profitable. Accurate forecasts of the future demand for the service provided or product produced by the BOT project assist the achievement viability and profitability. An accurate forecast of the demand is based on proper use of reliable data through the appropriate forecasting method (questionnaire surveys, performance of experiments, correlation of economic parameters, experience) and the right inference process that produces trustworthy results that help the bidder to decide and submit a competitive tender. Any deficiencies in the above process mislead the potential developers and discourage them to bid for the project. An even worst scenario is for a bidder to submit a tender based on false data and thus jeopardize viability of the project, as future demand willbe inconsistent with forecasts.Complex financial structure of BOT projects The financial structure of BOT projects is very complicated, due mainly to the great number of stakeholders involved and financial agreements signed. In most cases, financing is not covered by only one organization; there is more than one creditor and sponsors are insured individually to several insurers. This complex financial structure, although it is described thoroughly in the agreements, can be a risk generator, especially in cases when the cash inflows cannot serve all requirements or when cash outflows exceed original estimates and the stakeholders are not willing to undertake extra costs.Financing riskFinancing of a BOT project is the key issue for success. The challenge of financial structuring is to establish the appropriate combination of funding sources to ensure a sound financial structure for the project and mitigate financing risks. The financial plan for a BOT project must be sound and flexible to contingency plans that secure financing against delays, failures to obtain the required amounts of funds or approvals for additional loans, etc. Until completion of the projects construction, funds are raised from loans by financial institutions, equities and sponsors own capitals (Price, 1996). Loans are granted by banks (e.g. the European Investment Bank) or other type of financial institutions (e.g. insurance companies, brokers, mutual saving banks, investment type financial institutions, trust companies, etc.) (Papadopoulos, 1993). Domestic funds are also encouraged to participate in the financing scheme to motivate the domestic market and link an infrastructure project to the countrys economy. Domestic financing also provides a further insurance for the government concerning successful completion of the project. However, raising domestic finance is usually not easy due to weaknesses in the economies of developing countries (immature stock markets, lack of private funds, insufficient structure, etc.). In this case the domestic market is excluded from the project and the financing risks are less dispersed. When foreign financial institutions and sponsors undertake the whole project financing, they are reluctant to provide substantial funds unless these are highly secured. Connecting financing with the projects progress is an example. However, this usual arrangement, although it protects the projects sponsors, does not ensure financing because any complications in the completion process have a direct impact on the projects financing. Another important issue is the availability of funds. The ability to raise funds on time depends on the success of the overall investment strategy of each stakeholder in a BOT project. The investment portfolio of each sponsor (beyond the involvement in a particular BOT project) shall include both long- and short-term investments to ensure timely raising of funds for the project. Any delay directly affects the construction schedule and generates additional costs. In the operations/maintenance phase, part of the income earned by the projects commercial exploitation is used for project financing and, therefore, a non-profitable exploitation of the project directly and negatively impacts the financial plan.Source: YiannisXenidis, Demos Angeldes. The financial risks in built-operate-transfer projects. Construction Management and Economics, 2005(5), P431-441.译文：BOT项目的金融风险在本研究中，金融风险被看作是对财务计划的现金流有消极影响的风险，它在某种程度上可以危及项目的可行性并限制盈利能力。它包括以下几个层次的市场根源风险。1.贷款风险特许经营公司资助建设BOT项目所需的贷款有几种类型：配合固定或浮动利率的短、长期贷款，还有提供单利或复利的短、长期贷款。受所有必要费用和偿还利率影响的贷款种类和费用以及任何特定贷款制度中的必要具体规定都会影响整个项目的生命周期。对于整体资金计划都适当的贷款比例是由一个函数的许多参数构成，包括要考虑借贷双方的利益冲突、贷款机构和借款人的信誉，以及取得更多贷款或更新现有贷款的能力，还有贷款分期偿还表的安全性。针对所有风险的非保护贷款制度会阻碍潜在放款人进行项目集资，或者迫使他们对投资采取额外的安全措施，从而防止总成本负担过重。特许经营者面临偿还债务的困难还会导致承担的贷款条件加重，如需额外的保证、严格的监督措施、更高的利率、更快的债务摊销、对红利的限制及对平衡流动性更严格的要求。在极端的情况下,债权人可以完全承接这个项目。2.需求下降的风险BOT项目提供的产品或服务需求无法得到保证。最终用户的未来偏好可能受到几个参数的不利影响，其中经济环境是至关重要的因素之一。通货膨胀率的增加和货币贬值可以降低用户的购买力,因此就会减少