15 Asset Valuation Debt Investments Analysis and Valuation.doc

十五 Asset Valuation: Debt Investments: Analysis and Valuation1.A: Introduction to the Valuation of Fixed Income Securitiesa: Describe the fundamental principles of bond valuation.Bond investors are basically entitled to two distinct types of cash flows: 1) the periodic receipt of coupon income over the life of the bond, and 2) the recovery of principal (par value) at the end of the bond's life. Thus, in valuing a bond, you're dealing with an annuity of coupon payments, plus a large single cash flow, as represented by the recovery of principal at maturity, or when the bond is retired. These cash flows, along with the required rate of return on the investment, are then used in a present value based bond model to find the dollar price of a bond.b: Explain the three steps in the valuation process.The value of any financial asset can be determined as the sum of the assets discounted cash flows. There are three steps:· Estimate the cash flows. · Determine the appropriate discount rate. · Calculate the sum of present values of the estimated cash flows. c: Explain what is meant by a bond's cash flow.This LOS is very straightforward. A bond's cash flow is the coupon or principal value. For an option-free bond (meaning that the bond is not callable, putable, convertible, etc.), the expected cash flow structure is shown on the time line below.Where m = maturity, par, or face value (usually $1,000, 1,000, et cetera), CPN = (maturity value * stated coupon rate)/# coupons per year, and N= # of years to maturity * # coupons per year. So, for an arbitrary discount rate i, the bonds value is:Bond value= CPN1 + CPN2 + . + CPNn*m + M (l + i/m)1 (1 + i/m)2 (l + i/m)n*m Where: i = interest rate per annum (yield to maturity or YTM), m = number of coupons per year, and n = number of years to maturity.d: Discuss the diffulties of estimating the expected cash flows for some types of bonds and identify the bonds for which estimating the expected cash flows is difficult.Normally, estimating the cash flow stream of a high-quality option-free bond is relatively straight forward, as the amount and timing of the coupons and principal payments are known with a high degree of certainty. Remove that certainty, and difficulties will arise in estimating the cash flow stream of a bond. Aside from normal credit risks, the following three conditions could lead to difficulties in forecasting the future cash flow stream of even high-quality issues:· The presence of embedded options, such as call features and sinking fund provisions - in which case, the length of the cash flow stream (life of the bond) cannot be determined with certainty. · The use of a variable, rather than a fixed, coupon rate - in which case, the future annual or semi-annual coupon payments cannot be determined with certainty. · The presence of a conversion or exchange privilege, so you're dealing with a convertible (or exchangeable) bond, rather than a straight bond - in which case, it's difficult to know how long it will be before the bond is converted into stock. e: Compute the value of a bond, given the expected cash flows and the appropriate discount rates.Example: Annual coupons. Suppose that we have a 10-year, $1,000 par value, 6% annual coupon bond. The cash value of each coupon is: CPN= ($1,000 * 0.06)/1 = $60. The value of the bond with a yield to maturity (interest rate) of 8% appears below. On your financial calculator, N = 10, PMT = 60, FV = 1000, I/Y = 8; CPT PV = 865.80. This value would typically be quoted as 86.58, meaning 86.58% of par value, or $865.80.Bond value = 60 / (1.08)1 + 60 / (1.08)2 + 60 + 100 / (1.08)3 = $865.80Example: Semiannual coupons. Suppose that we have a 10-year, $1,000 par value, 6% semiannual coupon bond. The cash value of each coupon is: CPN = ($1,000 * 0.06)/2 = $30. The value of the bond with a yield to maturity (interest rate) of 8% appears below. On your financial calculator, N = 20, PMT = 30, FV = 1000, I/Y = 4; CPT PV = 864.10. Note that the coupons constitute an annuity.Bond Value=n*m S t=130 (1 + 0.08/2)t+1000 (1 + 0.08/2)n*m= 864.10f: Explain how the value of a bond changes if the discount rate increases or decreases and compute the change in value that is attributable to the rate change.The required yield to maturity can change dramatically during the life of a bond. These changes can be market wide (i.e., the general level of interest rates in the economy) or specific to the issue (e.g., a change in credit quality). However, for a standard, option-free bond the cash flows will not change during the life of the bond. Changes in required yield are reflected in the bonds price.Example: changes in required yield. Using your calculator, compute the value of a $1,000 par value bond, with a three year life, paying 6% semiannual coupons to an investor with a required rate of return of: 3%, 6%, and 12%.At I/Y = 3%/2; n = 3*2; FV = 1000; PMT = 60/2; compute PV = -1,085.458At I/Y = 6%/2; n = 3*2; FV = 1000; PMT = 60/2; compute PV = -1,000.000At I/Y = 12%/2; n = 3*2; FV = 1000; PMT = 60/2; compute PV = - 852.480g: Explain how the price of a bond changes as the bond approaches its maturity date and compute the change in value that is attributable to the passage of time.A bonds value can differ substantially from its maturity value prior to maturity. However, regardless of its required yield, the price will converge toward maturity value as maturity approaches. Returning to our $1,000 par value bond, with a three-year life, paying 6% semi-annual coupons. Here we calculate the bond values using required yields of 3, 6, and 12% as the bond approaches maturity.Time to MaturityYTM = 3%YTM = 6%YTM = 12%3.0 years1,085.4581,000.000852.4802.51,071.7401,000.000873.6292.01,057.8161,000.000896.0471.51,043.6831,000.000919.8101.01,029.3381,000.000944.9980.51,014.7781,000.000971.6890.01,000.0001,000.0001,000.000h: Compute the value of a zero-coupon bond.You find the price or market value of a zero coupon bond just like you do a coupon-bearing security, except, of course, you ignore the coupon component of the equation. The only cash flow is recovery of par value at maturity. Thus the price or market value of a zero coupon bond is simply the present value of the bond's par value. Bond value = M / (1 + i/m)n*mExample: A zero coupon bond. Suppose we have a 10-year, $1,000 par value, zero coupon bond. To find the value of this bond given its being price to yield 8% (compounded semiannually), you'd do the following:Bond value = 1000 / (1 + .08/2)10*2 = 456.39On your financing calculator, N = 10*2 = 20, FV = 1000, I/Y = 8/24; CPT PV = 456.39 (ignore the sign).The difference between the $456.39 and the par value ($1000) is the amount of interest that will be earned over the 10-year life of the issue.i: Compute the dirty price of a bond, accrued interest, and clean price of a bond that is between coupon payments.Assume we are trying to price a 3-year, $1,000 par value, 6% semiannual coupon bond, with YTM = 12%, with a maturity of January 15, 2005, and you are valuing the bond for settlement on April 20, 2002. The next coupon is due July 15, 2002. Therefore, there are 85 days between settlement and next coupon, and 180 days in the coupon period. The fractional period (w) = 85/180 = 0.4722. The value of the bond calculates out to be $879.105.Note that this bond value includes the accrued interest. This is often referred to as the dirty price or the full price. Unfortunately, when using a financial calculator, you can't just input N as 5.4722, since the calculator will hold the fractional period to the end rather than consider it up front, and you'll end up with the wrong answer ($863.49). The easiest way to compute the dirty price on your financial calculator is to add up the present values of each cash flow.· N = 0.4722, I/Y = 6, FV = 30, PMT = 0; CPT PV = 29.18 · N = 1.4722, I/Y = 6, FV = 30, PMT = 0; CPT PV = 27.53 · N = 2.4722, I/Y = 6, FV = 30, PMT = 0; CPT PV = 25.97 · N = 3.4722, I/Y = 6, FV = 30, PMT = 0; CPT PV = 24.50 · N = 4.4722, I/Y = 6, FV = 30, PMT = 0; CPT PV = 23.12 · N = 5.4722, I/Y = 6, FV = 1030, PMT = 0; CPT PV = 748.79 · Add each cash flow for a 879.09 (rounding error) dirty valuation. Bond prices are quoted without the accrued interest. This is often referred to as the clean price (or just the price). To determine the clean price, we must compute the accrued interest and subtract this from the dirty price. The accrued interest is a function of the accrued interest period, the number of days in the coupon period, and the value of the coupon. The period during which the interest is earned by the seller is the accrued interest period. Assume a fractional period of 0.4722 and a bond price of $879.105. Since the “w” previously calculated is the number of days interest earned by the buyer divided by the number of days in the coupon period, the AI period is the complement of “w”. Hence:AI = (1-w) * CPN= (1 0.4722) * 30 = $15.833Therefore, the clean price is: CP= dirty price AI = $879.105 15.833 = 863.272. The bond would be quoted at 86.3272% (or approximately 86 10/32) of par.j: Explain the deficiency of the traditional approach to valuation in which each cash flow is discounted at the same discount rate.The use of a single discount factor (i.e., YTM) to value all bond cash flows assumes that interest rates do not vary with term to maturity of the cash flow. In practice this is usually not the caseinterest rates exhibit a term structure, meaning that they vary according to term to maturity. Consequently, YTM is really an approximation or weighted average of a set of spot rates (an interest rate today used to discount a single cash flow in the future). The use of spot rates to discount bond cash flows results in an arbitrage-free valuation.k: Explain the arbitrage-free valuation approach and the role of Treasury spot rates in that approach.The use of multiple discount rates (a series of spot rates that reflect the current term structure) will result in more accurate bond pricing and in doing so, eliminate any (meaningful) arbitrage opportunities. That's why the use of a series of spot rates to discount bond cash flows is considered to be an arbitrage-free valuation procedure.To compute the value of a bond using spot rates, all you do is calculate the present value of each cash flow (coupon payment or par value) using a spot rate, and then add up the present values.l: Explain how the process of stripping reconstitution forces the price of a bond toward its arbitrage-free value so that no arbitrage profit is possible.It is possible to strip coupons from U.S. Treasuries and resell them, as well as to aggregate stripped coupons and reconstitute them into U.S. Treasury coupon bonds. Therefore, such arbitrage arguments ensure that U.S. Treasury securities trade at or very near their arbitrage-free prices.The determination of spot rates and the resulting term structure is usually done using risk-free (i.e., sovereign or Treasury) securities. These spot rates then form the basis for valuing non-Treasury securities denominated in the same currency. For example, you find spot rates in Japanese yen using Japanese government bonds, then use these to value non-Treasury securities denominated in yen.Typically, this is accomplished by adding a credit spread to each treasury spot yield, then using the result to discount the bond's cash flows. The amount of the credit spread is a function of default risk and term to maturity of the cash flow. In other words: 1) the riskier the bond, the greater the spread, and 2) spreads are affected by time to maturity, meaning there is a term structure of credit spreads.m: Explain how a dealer can generate an arbitrage profit, and compute the arbitrage profit if the market price of a bond differes from its arbitrage-free value.Using data from LOS 1.A.k, there are three steps (the dollar amounts given are arbitrary):1. Buy $1m of the 2-year 8% coupon bonds. 2. Sell $80,000 of the 1-year 0% coupon bonds at 96.154. 3. Sell $1.08m of the 2-year 0% coupon bonds at 85.734. The result is that you receive $2,850.40 (positive income today) in return for no future obligationan arbitrage opportunity. The selling of the 2-year zeros would force the price down to 85.469% (the price at which the YTM = 8.167%), at which point the arbitrage would cease to exist. Cash flow diagram: Time = 0 1 year 2 years -1m (cost of 2 year, 8% coupon. bonds) +80,000 (coupon, interest) +1.08m (coupon, interest) +76,923.2 (proceeds 1-year 0% bonds) -80,000 (maturity) +925,927.2 (proceeds 2-year 0% bonds) -1.08m (maturity) Net + 2,850.40 0 0 * 76,923.20 = 96.154 * 800 *925,927.20 = 85.734 * 10,800 * For these computations, note that the quote is on a "per $100" basis. Hence, we multiply by 1,080,000/100 = 10,800 n: Explain the basic features common to valuation models that can be used to value bonds with embedded options.In general, models that can handle embedded options have the following five characteristics:1. Begin with the fundamental model to derive estimates of treasury spot rates. 2. Estimate the volatility (degree of likely changes) in interest rates. 3. Develop an interest rate tree, based upon the volatility estimate, of future interest rates. 4. Model probabilities are set such that the model correctly predicts the current treasury bond price(s). 5. Develop rules for the exercise of the embedded options. 1.B: Yield Measures, Spot Rates, and Forward Ratesa: Explain the sources of return from investing in a bond (coupon interest payments, capital gain/loss, and reinvestment income).· Coupon interest payments. The series of cash payments made at fixed intervals as specified in the bond indenture. · Capital gain or loss. The difference between the purchase price and the sales price (or maturity value if the bond is held until maturity). · Reinvestment income. The interest income that accrues on the reinvestment of any cash flows that occur during the specified holding period. b: Compute the traditional yield measures for fixed-rate bonds (current yields, yield to maturity, yield to first call, yield to first par call date, yield to put, yield to worst, and cash flow yield).The current yield is concerned only with coupon cash flow, but does not consider capital gains/losses or reinvestment income. Suppose that we have a 3-year, $1,000 par value, 6% semiannual coupon bond. The cash coupon payment per year = cash coupon payment per year = maturity value * stated coupon rate = $1,000 * 0.06 = $60. If the bond price is $852.480 (YTM = 12%, then the current yield = $60/$852.48 = 7.038