电大社会统计学试卷A及答案解析资料参考.doc

级 专业2014学年第 1 学期社会统计学试卷 A 姓名： 学号： （开卷 闭卷）题号一二三四总分得分一、选择题：2*10=20分1、要了解400个学生的学习情况，则总体单位是( B ) 。 A 400个学生 B 每一个学生 C 400个学生的成绩 D 每一个学生的成绩2、只与一个自由度有关的是（ A ）A 分布 B 超几何分布 C 泊松分布 D F分布3、将总体按与研究有关的标志进行分组，然后再随机地从各组中抽选单位组成样本。这种抽样方式叫（ B ）。A 简单随机抽样 B 类型抽样 C 等距抽样 D 整群抽样。4、在方差分析中，自变量是（ A ）。A 定类变量 B 定序变量 C 定距变量 D 定比变量5、 某城市男性青年27岁结婚的人最多，该城市男性青年结婚平均年龄为26.2岁，则该城市男性青年结婚的年龄分布为（B）。 A正偏 B负偏 C对称 D不能作出结论6、分析统计资料，可能不存在的平均指标是（ A ）。A 众数 B 算术平均数 C 中位数 D 几何平均数7、在一个左偏的分布中，小于平均数的数据个数将（ C ）。A 超过一半 B 等于一半C 不到一半 D 视情况而定8、若P（A）0.2，（B）0.6，P（A/B）0.4，则（ D ）。A 0.8 B 0.08 C 0.12 D 0.24。9、关于学生t分布，下面哪种说法不正确（ B ）。A 要求随机样本 B 适用于任何形式的总体分布 C 可用于小样本 D 可用样本标准差S代替总体标准差10、对于大样本双侧检验，如果根据显著性水平查正态分布表得Z/2196，则当零假设被否定时，犯第一类错误的概率是( C )。A 20% B 10% C 5% D1% 二、判断题：2*10=20分 1、所有的统计指标都是变量。 （ 对 ）2、统计所研究的对象就是社会经济现象的数量方面。 （错 ）3、随机变量在相同的条件下进行观测，其可能实现的值不止一个。 （对 ）4、在社会现象中，即使相同的意识作用也完全可能有不确定的结果，这就提供了概率论应用的可能性。 （ 对 ）5、成功次数的期望值是决定泊松分布的关键因素。 （ 对 ）6、进行区间估计，置信水平总是预先给定的。 （ 对 ）7、可以对置信水平作如下解释：“总体参数落在置信区间的概率是（1-）”。（错 ）8、将收集到得的数据分组，组数越多，丧失的信息越多。 （错 ） 9、N个变量值连乘积的平方根，即为几何平均数。 （错 ） 10、当样本容量n无限增大时，样本均值与总体均值的绝对离差小于任意正数的概率趋于零。 （错 ） 三、简答题：5*7=35分 1、大数规律大数规律是随机现象出现的基本规律，它的一般意义是：观察过程中每次取得的结果可能不同（因为具有偶然性），但大量重复观察结果的平均值却几乎接近某个确定的数值。2、配对样本所谓配对样本，指只有一个总体，双样本是由于样本中的个体两两匹配成对而产生的。3、消减误差比例变量间的相关程度，可以用不知Y与X有关系时预测Y的误差，减去知道Y与X有关系时预测Y的误差，再将其化为比例来度量。将削减误差比例记为PRE。4、同分对如果在X序列中，我们观察到（此时Y序列中无），则这个配对仅是X方向而非Y方向的同分对；如果在Y序列中，我们观察到（此时X序列中无），则这个配对仅是Y方向而非X方向的同分对；我们观察到，也观察到，则称这个配对为X与Y同分对。5、什么是分层抽样？ 分层抽样也叫类型抽样，就是先将总体按某种特征或属性分若干类别或层次，再按照一定比例在各个子类别或层次中随机抽取，最后将各抽取的单位合并成样本。 6、简述回归分析和相关分析之间的密切联系。一般说来，只有当两个变量之间存在着较高程度的相关关系时，回归分析才变得有意义和有价值。相关程度越高，回归预测越准确。因此，往往先进行相关分析，然后才选用有明显相关关系的变量作回归分析。与此同时，相关关系往往要通过回归分析才能阐释清楚，例如皮尔逊相关系数的PRE性质。回归分析具有推理的性质，而相关分析从本质上讲只是对客观事物的一种描述，知其然而不知其所以然。因而从分析层次上讲，回归分析更深刻一些。7、P 值决策与统计量的比较P 值是被称为观察到的(或实测的)显著性水平。用P值进行检验比根据统计量检验提供更多的信息统计量检验是我们事先给出的一个显著性水平，以此为标准进行决策，无法知道实际的显著性水平究竟是多少四、计算分析题：15=分 1、一种以休闲和娱乐为主题的杂志，声称其读者群中有80%为女性。为验证这一说法是否属实，某研究部门抽取了由100人组成的一个随机样本，发现有46个女性经常阅读该杂志。取显著性水平 a=0.05，检验该杂志读者群中女性的比例是否为80%？H0 ：p = 80% H1 ：p ¹ 80% a = 0.05 n = 100检验统计量:结论: 没有证据表明“该杂志声称读者群中有80%为女性”的看法正确 2、有四个品牌的彩电在五个地区销售，为分析彩电的品牌(因素A)和销售地区(因素B)对销售量是否有影响，对每个品牌在各地区的销售量取得以下数据，见下表。试结合Excel输出的结果分析品牌和销售地区对彩电的销售量是否有显著影响？ 不同品牌的彩电在各地区的销售量数据 品牌(因素A) 销售地区( 因素B )B1B2B3B4B5A1A2A3A4365345358288 350368323280 343363353298 340330343260 323333308298 Excel输出的结果如下：1、对因素A提出的假设为H0: m1=m2=m3=m4 (品牌对销售量没有影响)H1: mi (i =1,2, , 4) 不全相等 (品牌对销售量有影响)2、对因素B提出的假设为H0: m1=m2=m3=m4=m5 (地区对销售量没有影响)H1: mj (j =1,2,5) 不全相等 (地区对销售量有影响)结论： FA18.10777>Fa3.4903，拒绝原假设H0，说明彩电的品牌对销售量有显著影响FB2.100846< Fa3.2592，接受原假设H0，说明销售地区对彩电的销售量没有显著影响 已知：=0.10时，Z/2=1.65 =0.05时，Z/2=1.96 =0.01时，Z/2=2.58O(_)O谢谢！【China's 10 must-see animations】The Chinese animation industry has seen considerable growth in the last several years. It went through a golden age in the late 1970s and 1980s when successively brilliant animation work was produced. Here are 10 must-see classics from China's animation outpouring that are not to be missed. Let's recall these colorful images that brought the country great joy. Calabash Brothers Calabash Brothers (Chinese: 葫芦娃) is a Chinese animation TV series produced by Shanghai Animation Film Studio. In the 1980s the series was one of the most popular animations in China. It was released at a point when the Chinese animation industry was in a relatively downed state compared to the rest of the international community. Still, the series was translated into 7 different languages. The episodes were produced with a vast amount of paper-cut animations. Black Cat Detective Black Cat Detective (Chinese: 黑猫警长) is a Chinese animation television series produced by the Shanghai Animation Film Studio. It is sometimes known as Mr. Black. The series was originally aired from 1984 to 1987. In June 2006, a rebroadcasting of the original series was announced. Critics bemoan the series' violence, and lack of suitability for children's education. Proponents of the show claim that it is merely for entertainment. Effendi "Effendi", meaning sir and teacher in Turkish, is the respectful name for people who own wisdom and knowledge. The hero's real name was Nasreddin. He was wise and witty and, more importantly, he had the courage to resist the exploitation of noblemen. He was also full of compassion and tried his best to help poor people. Adventure of Shuke and Beita【舒克与贝塔】 Adventure of Shuke and Beita (Chinese: 舒克和贝塔) is a classic animation by Zheng Yuanjie, who is known as King of Fairy Tales in China. Shuke and Beita are two mice who don't want to steal food like other mice. Shuke became a pilot and Beita became a tank driver, and the pair met accidentally and became good friends. Then they befriended a boy named Pipilu. With the help of PiPilu, they co-founded an airline named Shuke Beita Airlines to help other animals. Although there are only 13 episodes in this series, the content is very compact and attractive. The animation shows the preciousness of friendship and how people should be brave when facing difficulties. Even adults recalling this animation today can still feel touched by some scenes. Secrets of the Heavenly Book Secrets of the Heavenly Book, (Chinese: 天书奇谈) also referred to as "Legend of the Sealed Book" or "Tales about the Heavenly Book", was released in 1983. The film was produced with rigorous dubbing and fluid combination of music and vivid animations. The story is based on the classic literature "Ping Yao Zhuan", meaning "The Suppression of the Demons" by Feng Menglong. Yuangong, the deacon, opened the shrine and exposed the holy book to the human world. He carved the book's contents on the stone wall of a white cloud cave in the mountains. He was then punished with guarding the book for life by the jade emperor for breaking heaven's law. In order to pass this holy book to human beings, he would have to get by the antagonist fox. The whole animation is characterized by charming Chinese painting, including pavilions, ancient architecture, rippling streams and crowded markets, which fully demonstrate the unique beauty of China's natural scenery. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf【喜洋洋与灰太狼】 Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf (Chinese:喜羊羊与灰太狼) is a Chinese animated television series. The show is about a group of goats living on the Green Pasture, and the story revolves around a clumsy wolf who wants to eat them. It is a popular domestic animation series and has been adapted into movies. Nezha Conquers the Dragon King（Chinese: 哪吒闹海） is an outstanding animation issued by the Ministry of Culture in 1979 and is based on an episode from the Chinese mythological novel "Fengshen Yanyi". A mother gave birth to a ball of flesh shaped like a lotus bud. The father, Li Jing, chopped open the ball, and beautiful boy, Nezha, sprung out. One day, when Nezha was seven years old, he went to the nearby seashore for a swim and killed the third son of the Dragon King who was persecuting local residents. The story primarily revolves around the Dragon King's feud with Nezha over his son's death. Through bravery and wit, Nezha finally broke into the underwater palace and successfully defeated him. The film shows various kinds of attractive sceneries and the traditional culture of China, such as spectacular mountains, elegant sea waves and exquisite ancient Chinese clothes. It has received a variety of awards. Havoc in Heaven The story of Havoc in Heaven（Chinese: 大闹天宫）is based on the earliest chapters of the classic story Journey to the West. The main character is Sun Wukong, aka the Monkey King, who rebels against the Jade Emperor of heaven. The stylized animation and drums and percussion accompaniment used in this film are heavily influenced by Beijing Opera traditions. The name of the movie became a colloquialism in the Chinese language to describe someone making a mess. Regardless that it was an animated film, it still became one of the most influential films in all of Asia. Countless cartoon adaptations that followed have reused the same classic story Journey to the West, yet many consider this 1964 iteration to be the most original, fitting and memorable, The Golden Monkey Defeats a Demon【金猴降妖】 The Golden Monkey Defeats a Demon (Chinese: 金猴降妖), also referred as "The Monkey King Conquers the Demon", is adapted from chapters of the Chinese classics "Journey to the West," or "Monkey" in the Western world. The five-episode animation series tells the story of Monkey King Sun Wukong, who followed Monk Xuan Zang's trip to the West to take the Buddhistic sutra. They met a white bone evil, and the evil transformed human appearances three times to seduce the monk. Twice Monkey King recognized it and brought it down. The monk was unable to recognize the monster and expelled Sun Wukong. Xuan Zang was then captured by the monster. Fortunately Bajie, another apprentice of Xuan Zang, escaped and persuaded the Monkey King to come rescue the monk. Finally, Sun kills the evil and saves Xuan Zang. The outstanding animation has received a variety of awards, including the 6th Hundred Flowers Festival Award and the Chicago International Children's Film Festival Award in 1989. McDull【麦兜】 McDull is a cartoon pig character that was created in Hong Kong by Alice Mak and Brian Tse. Although McDull made his first appearances as a supporting character in the McMug comics, McDull has since become a central character in his own right, attracting a huge following in Hong Kong. The first McDull movie McMug Story My Life as McDull documented his life and the relationship between him and his mother.The McMug Story My Life as McDull is also being translated into French and shown in France. In this version, Mak Bing is the mother of McDull, not his father.