教育与经济增长毕业论文外文翻译.doc

教育与经济增长一、关于经济增长的新模型首先,我们来看看当今经济学家用来解释经济增长的模型。对此我需小心从事,以免被误以为我说话如同英国财政大臣戈登·布朗此公曾因“经济政策当以新古典内生增长理论为基础”之言论迷惑记者和公众。暂且不管这个术语究竟意义如何,其中道理倒是非常简单:关于经济增长的动因存在着两种对立的观点。第一种观点认为,赶超比领先更容易。这一思想为许多经济学家所共识,因为它吸收了许多自从我们入门以来便被灌输的概念。所谓的报酬递减法则指出,消费的量较少时所获效用较高,消费的量较多时则所获效用较少。对于一个公司来说,当存在许多富余生产能力时,增加额外产出的成本较低,当不存在富余生产能力时增产的成本就很大。报酬递减法则的概念可以说是经济学的利器:比如说它可以解释为何麦当劳不生产家具,为什么加拿大和美国是各自独立的国家。这一概念也是由杰文斯和马歇尔所开创的新古典经济学之核心理念。就增长理论来说,新古典模型为各国的GDP增长率将会收敛于一个由技术进步决定的比率。由于各国的技术进步率并不相同,因此我们有理由预期各国的经济将以不同的速度增长。但是由于穷国可以“复制”富国发明的技术,而富国必须保持技术上的领先地位,因此也就不难理解为何穷国的增长速度快于富国,通过假定产出简单的由雇佣劳动和资本决定,我们可以得到新古典模型的简单变形模式。但是正如我以前指出的那样,这种简单的函数在运用于国际比较时效果一般较差,通过它们得到的预测结果与实际情况存在很大的差异。尤其是它们没有考虑到穷国和富国平均人均收入之间的巨大差异。比如说,一个加拿大人的平均收入大约是一个中国人的25倍,但是新古典模型预测的结果仅仅是相差2.5倍。不管用什么标准来看,这都是一个相当大的误差。但是曼昆等人证明,新古典模型的这一缺陷并非模型本身所致,而是在进行经验分析时所采取的方法不恰当造成的。该模型错误的假定只有两种生产要素资本和劳动,但是对劳动的质量却只字未提。一旦考虑到劳动力的质量因素,比如说将教育作为一个关键变量纳入生产函数之中,那么模型的缺陷就可以避免。这一增广形式的新古典增长模型所谓“增广”,是指模型纳入了教育这一关键变量是过去20年间第一个重要的新增长理论。用现在的观点看,由于这种模型未将技术进步纳入模型_之中,因此这类模型也叫做外生增长模型。但是这样命名就会产生误导,因为事实上只是技术进步而非增长,相对于模型来说是外生的。但是,这一术语并不会让新古典增长模型产生严重的局限性。换句话说,这一模型实际上并没有解释清楚增长这一问题。这一模型仅仅是“推卸了责任”,它只是告诉我们,经济会以技术进步决定的一个比率增长。那么我们自然就要问:又是什么决定了技术进步率呢?这也是第二个重要的新增长理论。这一理论认为,增长技术状态是相互依存的。一个国家如果对研发加大投资力度的话,会对增长产生更大的效果。根据这一观点,有的国家可以进入增长和发展的良性循环,而有的国家则将步入经济停滞的恶性循环之中。对此,可以试想一下南撒哈拉国家的情况。很早以前就有人将这一增长模型叫做“累积因果关系”。其他人注意到这一事实:技术现在是由模型内部决定的,因此把它叫做内生增长理论。研发在该模型中的作用相当重要投资于研发必然意味着投资于教育和人力资本。支持这两种主要的经济增长模型的人都认为,教育是增长的关键决定因素,但是对于其原因却莫衷一是。新古典增长理论的鼓吹者认为,高素质的劳动力可能是一种更富生产率的生产要素。内生增长理论者也认为,新知识的创造和发明至关重要。理论是这样说的,那么实际情况如何呢?为了检验新老两种理论,我们只需要简单地考察加入教育和人力资本变量之后是否有助于解释经济增长的国际差异。在若干最具影响力的研究当中,莱文和瑞奈特的研究证实:和新资本的投资比率一样,教育确实具有影响,并且事实上具有很大的影响。尽管存在两组国家的区别,但是从该图我们还是可以清楚地看到教育的作用。因此,相对于旧理论来说,新理论占了上风。但是请记住,一共有两种新理论。由于两种观点都认为教育具有重要作用,因此想要评判两种理论各自的优劣还是存在许多困难。当我们想要验证两种理论孰优孰劣时,关键需要有一些独特的特点。幸运的是,我们的确可以发现两种理论各自都有一些独特的特点,但是,这一特点不是教育,而是收敛性。但是,进一步的分析可以提供更详细的信息。该图至少存在两种可以识别的类型。第一类就是那些在过去20年间GDP增长了50 %或者更多的国家。其中一些初始收入水平较低的国家具有相当高的增长率,比如说中国、马来西亚、印度、韩国,以及毛里求斯和博茨瓦纳这样的小经济体。爱尔兰也属于这类国家,自从加入欧盟之后,它的发展速度很快,被人视作“凯尔特虎”。另一类国家的增长率较低,但是初始收入水平较高,比如美国、日本,以及一些北欧国家。如果我们把所有国家都看作一组的话,那么的确存在某种程度上的收敛性。另一方面,我们可以对那些过去20年间增长率为20%或者更低的国家进行检验。在这些国家中,增长率最低的当属大部分南撒哈拉国家和拉美国家。两个地区的国家之间都存在一定程度的收敛性,比如说,萨尔瓦多不断赶超着委内瑞拉,加纳则不断赶超着赞比亚。但是如果把这些国家看作一个整体的话,则它们并未赶超远东和北大西洋国家。相对于繁荣的经济体来说,这些低增长率的经济体似乎陷于一个长期的停滞陷阱之中。到目前为止,我们可以得到的结论是:存在不同的国家类型。在每一类国家内部,由新古典增长机制所证明的赶超过程以或快或慢的速度发生了。但是在不同类别国家之间,经济增长则表现为一种累积因果模式,穷国仍然落后于富国。尽管这样一来情况变得复杂了,但是却给新古典赶超增长模型和内生累积因果模型提供了各自的发展空间。二、深化对教育和增长的关系的理解不管是哪个模型,都认为教育会影响增长(尽管我们尚不清楚这种影响作用是如何以及为何发生的)。同样,教育也无法解释各国之间经济增长存在的许多差异。事实上,除非我们能引入更多的有助于理解增长动因的变量,否则现有的模型仅能解释国家之间增长率差异的35%。因此在随后的演讲中,我首先将对“教育为何具有影响作用”这一问题进行讨论,然后我将介绍其他一些可以影响增长的变量。到目前为止,我们一提到教育,就会将注意力集中在教育的数量上。但是,仅仅关注数量不能令人满意,原因至少有二:首先,没有考虑到教育质量上的差异。其次,没有考虑到受教育程度在一国内部人口之间分布上的差异。以前我们只能解释国家之间增长率差异的35 % ,但是现在我们可以解释40%还多。很显然,教育质量对于经济增长和繁荣来说是一个重要的决定因素。国家之间的教育质量的差异也是很明显的。在英国,教育质量得分为63分,加拿大为55分,法国、澳大利亚、日本和新西兰分别为56、59、66和67分。再来看看那些穷国:博茨瓦纳仅有32分,肯尼亚为30分,而玻利维亚、加纳、莫桑比克、中非共和国、萨尔瓦多的得分更低。即使新古典模型的解释能力再强,但是在如此低的得分面前,我们还是难以看到这些发展中国家具有赶超富国的潜力。由此我们可以得到一个政策启示。世界银行和其他国际组织已经试图在2015年全面普及初等教育也即100%的完成率。这种对教育数量的投资颇受好评,但是距离成功的路还有很远。2001 年整个非洲的小学完成率只有55%。但是,除了要迫切普及教育数量以外,加大对教育质量的投资也很重要,并且还有助于促进经济增长。如果仅仅注重数量投资而忽视质量投资,那么效果也很差。我认为,富国将优秀的青年教师送往穷国支教,这是一个双赢策略:他们不仅可以教授当地学生从而获得锻炼,也可以将自己的经验传递给当地教师。这一计划应当由教师派出国的政府资助一部分,因为派出国因教师的海外经验获得了收益。同时,那些希望在普及教育的同时也提高教育质量的国际机构也应当对此进行资助。那么,教育不平等和增长之间到底有何关系呢? 直到前几年,我们对这一问题还无法回答。要衡量教育的分布不是一件简单的事情,这需要完成各个教育层次的人群的信息,不仅包括当前整个适龄年轻人组的信息,也包括那些仍然健在的各代人群的信息。对于许多国家来说,这种在本质上接近历史数据的数据集只能搜集到最近几年的信息。尽管如此,还是有几个数据集可以用来分析许多国家组别内部的教育不平等状况。数据集进行过综合研究。他们发现,有明显的证据表明,教育不平等会阻碍经济增长,并且这种阻碍作用要大于投资于受教育水平本身所具有的促进作用。教育分布相对不平等的国家其经济增长情况也相对较差。那些习惯于从微观视角研究教育经济学的学者们对于这一基于宏观数据的研究结果不应感到惊讶。在发展中国家,投资于初等教育的社会收益率一般都比投资于更高层次的教育要高。如果把南撒哈拉国家看作一个整体,初等教育投资的社会收益率为25 % ,而高等教育的收益率仅为11%。所以，我们也就不应奇怪为何这些国家重点投资于初等教育。因此,在穷国,教育资源并没有集中于精英阶层。这也是到2015年全面普及初等教育的一个有力的保证。三、其他影响增长的因素我要说到的第一个有可能影响经济增长的因素就是所谓的经济开放程度,也即经济体是否向自由贸易开放市场,或者是否以关税和配额的形式强加一些限制性贸易壁垒。显然,这是一个有争议的话题。自由贸易运动和不断加强的全球化趋势已经招致多方批评。一些环境保护人士视自由贸易为一种威胁,因为跨国的货物运输增加了污染尽管我认为这完全是两个不相关的问题。一些左翼人士则因为意识形态的原因抵制自由贸易,他们还认为自由贸易是对国内工人工作条件的一种威胁。一些援助性组织抵制自由贸易,因为他们认为这有损发展中国家的利益他们经常想到的是西方国家总是以双重标准一方面对发展中国家设置贸易壁垒,一方面又鼓吹自由贸易。(在这里,我想到了欧盟的不公正的一般性农产品政策。)毫无疑问,也有一些激进组织反对自由贸易,因为他们将其视作经济帝国主义,比如泛滥全球的“麦当劳化”。但是谁又能指责这种趋势呢?因为事实上在那些被“麦当老化”的地区确实有很多人选择购买了汉堡包(否则这些店也不会存在了),这大概是因为这种全球化的趋势给当地人民的生活带来了福利改善吧。另一方面,也存在许多支持全球化和自由贸易的力量。他们的理由很简单:如果拟允许全世界的消费者和商人以他们愿意的方式进行交易,那么所有人都可以获益。因此,我们就不该对从中国进口的纺织品强加配额,因为这样会剥夺我们丧失购买廉价的衣服的权利,同时也剥夺了中国在其具有比较优势的产业里的就业岗位。通过自由贸易,每个国家都可以专注于自己具有比较优势的领域。这样一来,自由贸易体系下的世界产出会比其他任何一种贸易模式下都要高。最近欧盟和中国之间的“内衣大战”(迄今尚未圆满解决) 充分说明,商业问题是如何变成一个烫手的“政治山芋”的。关于开放对增长的影响的研究很多。其中许多都认为,开放程度确实会刺激经济发展。 为了理解这一机制是如何作用的。如往常一样,纵轴表示经济增长率。开放程度的指标反映在横轴上,这是一个由萨克斯和华纳提出的二元指标:如果某国执行开放贸易政策,则取值为1(以是否存在高额关税、非关税壁垒、外汇黑市升水值偏高、政府对主要出口产品实行垄断以及是否由社会主义政府执政来衡量) ;否则取值为0。尽管这只是一个粗略的衡量开放程度的指标,但是该图还是清楚的表明,不管怎么衡量,经济开放程度对于经济增长确实具有影响。从世界经济史的角度来看,自由贸易当然很重要,对于那些20 世纪后半叶获得独立的殖民地国家来说就显得更加重要。当时,反对自由贸易的论调甚嚣尘上,比如反对者认为自由贸易有损本国的幼稚产业。苏联的迅速工业化给许多国家,特别是非洲国家,留下了深刻印象,因此这些国家放弃了完全融入全球经济的机会。但是小国不像大国那样能够从自身丰富多样的资源中获得收益,并且那些具有鲜明部落文化特征的国家也不同于那些具有强大且统一的传统的国家。非洲国家采取的保护主义政策失败了,其代价是广大人民的生活福利受到了损失。四、结论埃里克·汉森教授在埃尔伯达的教育财政中他这样写道:“教育提高生产过程中的劳动有效性。通过受教育者的言传身教,它还影响合作者的效率，教育通常会促进创新的传播,推动研究和技术进步。为了维持并提高现有的社会福利水平,促进政府的民主,提高经济的生产率,有必要加大中学后教育的支出。” Education and Economic Growth1. The new model of economic growth First of all, let's take a look at today's economists use to explain economic growth model. I care is to be engaged in to this, to avoid the mistake I speak as Gordon Brown, the chancellor of the exchequer, Gordon Brown - intolerance for "economic policy as' neo-classical endogenous growth theory (post - neoclassical endogenous growth found) on the basis of" confused expression of journalists and the public. Regardless of whether the term meaning, the reason is very simple: on the drivers of economic growth there are two opposing points of view. The first kind of view is that catch more easily than lead. This thought consensus by many economists because it absorbs a lot since we started by infusion of concept. The so-called law of diminishing returns, points out that the less the amount of consumption utility obtained high, consumption quantity is large, the gain less effective. For a company, when there is a lot of surplus production capacity, increase the cost of additional output is low, when there is no spare production capacity of the cost of production is very big. The concept of the law of diminishing returns is arguably one of economics: furniture, for example, it can explain why McDonald's does not produce, why is Canada and the United States is a separate country. This concept is also by jevons (J evons) and Marshall (Marshall) created the core idea of new classical economics. In terms of growth theory, new classical model to national GDP growth rate will converge to the ratio of a determined by technological progress. (1) due to technological progress rate is not the same from country to country, so we have reasons to expect the economy will grow at a different speed. But due to poor countries to "copy" invention of technology, rich countries and rich countries must maintain technical leading position, so it is understandable why growing faster in poor countries to rich, By assuming simple output is determined by the wage labor and capital, we can get simple deformation model of new classical model. But as I said before, this simple function effect when applying the international comparison generally poor, through them to get the prediction results and the actual situation is quite different. Especially they don't consider the gap between the poor and rich countries the average per capita income. For example, a Canadian 25 times the average income is about a Chinese, but the new classical model of the predicted just differ 2. 5 times. By any standards, this is a considerable error. But Mankiw et al. (Mankiw et al., 1992) show that the new classical model of this defect is not caused by the model itself, but in the approach taken by the improper analysis of the experience. Error of the model assumes that there are only two factors of production, capital and labor, but said nothing about the quality of the work. Once given the quality of the labor force factors, such as the education as a key variable in production function, the model of defect can be avoided. The augmented form (augmented neo-classical growth model - the so-called "augmented", refers to the model into the education is the key variable - over the past 20 years the first important new growth theory. In today's point of view, because the model does not include technical progress in _, so this type of model is also called the exogenous growth models. But this name will be misleading, because in fact only technological progress rather than growth, is exogenous relative to the model. However, this term does not make new classical growth model have serious limitations. In other words, this model does not actually explain growth this problem. This model is only "shirk the responsibility", it just tells us that the economy will be based on the technology progress of a rate increase. Then we will ask: what determines the rate of technological progress? This is the second important new growth theory. This theory is that growing technology state is interdependent. A country if the r&d investment, will have a greater effect on growth. According to this view, some countries can enter the virtuous cycle of growth and development, and in some countries will enter a vicious cycle of economic stagnation. To this, you can just imagine the situation in sub-saharan countries. Long ago there was a man who will be the growth model is called the "cumulative causation" (cumulative causation), such as card dole (Kaldor, 1966). Other people notice the fact that technology is determined by the internal model now, so it is called the endogenous growth theory. (1) research and development in the model is very important to the role of -, investing in research and development will inevitably means that investment in education and human capital. To support economic growth model of the two main thought, education is a key determinant of growth, but disagree about the reason. Neoclassical growth theory advocates believe that the high quality labor force might be a more productivity of factors of production. Endogenous growth theory also thinks, the creation of new knowledge and invention is crucial. Actual situation theory is said so, then how? To test the new and old two theories, we simply examine in education and human capital variables In spite of the difference between the two groups of countries, but from the picture we can see clearly the role of education. Therefore, relative to the old theory, the new theory has the upper hand. But remember, there are two kinds of new theory. Due to both view that education plays an important role, so want to judge two kinds of theory there are still many difficulties. Their respective advantages and disadvantages When we want to test the relative merits of two theories, the key need to have some unique characteristics. Fortunately, we can find two kinds of theories each have some unique features, however, this feature is not education, but the convergence. However, further analysis can provide more detailed information. The picture there are at least two types that can be recognized. The first kind is the GDP grew by 50% in the past 20 years or more of the country. Some of the initial income level is quite high in countries with lower growth rates, such as China, Malaysia, India, South Korea, and Mauritius and Botswana such small economies. Ireland also belong to this kind of country, since joining the European Union, its development is very fast, is regarded as the "Celtic tiger" (Celtic tiger). Another kind of the country's growth rate is low, but the initial income level is higher, such as the United States, Japan, and some of the Nordic countries. If we see all countries as a group, so there is some degree of convergence. We can for those who are over the past 20 years, on the other hand, growth rate of 20% or less of state inspection. In these countries, the growth rate was lowest most sub-saharan countries and Latin American countries. Two regions of the country, there is a certain degree of convergence between el Salvador continuously catch up with venezuela, for instance, Ghana is constantly surpassing in Zambia. But if the country as a whole, they did not catch up with the far east and the north Atlantic countries. Low relative to the prosperity of economy, the growth rate of economy seems to be Mired in a long-term stagnation trap. (3) So far, we can get the conclusion is that there are different types of countries. (1) within each country, proved by the new classical growth mechanism of overtaking process happened at the speed of fast or slow. But in a different category between countries, economic growth is characterized by a cumulative causation model, poor countries are still behind the rich. Although so things get complicated, but to the new classical catch-up growth model and endogenous cumulative causation model provides their own development space. 2. Deepen the understanding on the relationship between the education and growth Regardless of model, that education will influence growth (although we do not yet understand the impact happened how and why). Similarly, education also is unable to explain economic growth exist many differences between countries. In fact, unless we can introduce more variables will help understand the growth drivers, or the existing model can only explain the 35% growth rate differences between countries. So later in the speech, I will first of all "why education has effect" discuss the issue, then I will introduce some other variables can affect growth. So far, when it comes to education, we will focus on the amount of education. But just focus on quantity not satisfactory, at least two reasons: first of all, without considering the differences of education quality. Second, without considering the level of education in a population distribution differences between instead. Before we could explain 35% of the growth rate differences between countries, but now we can explain more than 40%. Obviously, the quality of education to economic growth and prosperity is an important decision factor. Differences in the quality of education between countries is obvious. In Britain, education quality score is 63 points, for 55 points, Canada, France, Australia, Japan and New Zealand, 56, 59, 66 and 67 points respectively. Only 32 points and take a look at those poor countries: Botswana, Kenya is 30 points, and Bolivia, Ghana, central African republic, el Salvador, mozambique's score is lower. Even if the new classical model interpretation ability strong again, but in the face of such a low score, is difficult for us to see these developing countries has the potential to catch up with rich countries. Thus we can get a policy implications. The world bank and other intern