在世界经济变化下中国纺织品和服装的出口情况的文献翻译.doc

原文题目：在世界经济变化下中国纺织品和服装的出口情况作者：YONGZHENG YANGCHUANSHUI ZHONG原文出处: The Developing Economies, XXXVI-1 (March 1998): 323.说明纺织品和服装都是第一制造类产品，并且是在工业化经济中产生的。他们在早期阶段的关键作用是其工业化在英国，北美国，配件及日本，和更多最近的东亚经出口导向型济体的增长。香港，韩国，台湾很大程度上依赖于纺织品和服装出口从50年代至80年代中期。在过去的二十年里，一些东盟国家和中国已成为大型生产的纺织品和服装出口商。主要的南亚经济体，即印度，巴基斯坦，孟加拉国，斯里兰卡，在过去的几年里也成为重要的纺织品和服装出口商。随着越来越多的国家进入世界纺织品和服装市场，竞争日益激烈。同时，市场仍然在工业经济体制造的商品是最受保护的。虽然，具有调节世界纺织品和服装的多种纤维协定(MFA)通过在2005年被淘汰的自愿出口限制（VERs）使纺织品和服装在过去的二十年里的产业市场中保持高关税。来自发展中国家的纺织和服装出口也常常受到在工业市场上的反倾销行动。因此，它不能清楚反映什么程度能适应使世界市场在发展中的经济体进一步扩大纺织品和服装出口。尽管保护品中，这些进口渗透商品是在工业市场中是最高的。因此，从长远来看，即使在MFA被删除，在发展中国家的大量出口扩张压低世界价格，降低出口扩张的出口经济效益的情况下，这样的不利的贸易条件效应也会减轻，纺织品和服装贸易在发展中经济体中也会进一步增加。作为世界上最大的服装出口国和第二最大的纺织品出口国，中国已在全球市场中扮演着重要的角色。在上世纪80年代，中国担心工业经济体可能无法适应中国继续扩大纺织品和服装的出口（华里1992）。MFA限制实际上已经变得越来越严重，但中国已设法增加出口迅速。在1980到1994的十四年里，中国纺织品和服装出口增长了八倍。快速增长国内成本，然而，中国的纺织品和服装出口接近顶峰并开始转移到纺织品，服装和其他劳动密集型制造更多的资本和技术密集型产品（Garnaut1996).而转移是必然的贸易理论认为，转移的时间是重要的政策含义。在中国，问题是，中国可以扩大出口多久在失去竞争力之前，和这可能会对纺织品和服装部门带来什么样的后果。除了长期供应潜力，还有几个因素会影响中国的纺织服装出口需求的前景。逐步淘汰MFA会鼓励中国的纺织品服装出口，而中国的WTO的（世界贸易组织）成员的谈判结果的不确定性可能会阻碍其出口。中国的竞争对手，尤其是后来者在世界纺织品服装市场（如亚洲南部和东盟的一些国家），定时中国变更已经为其出口长期增长的主要影响。本文探讨了未来中国的纺织品和服装出口对其他的纺织品和服装出口商。供应和需求侧两因素要考虑。在下面的部分，中国的纺织品和服装出口将在变化的全球视野的国际比较优势下进行了分析。第三节探讨随着相关需求乌拉圭回合改革和中国的WTO入盟谈判，与第四章分析经济和人口哪一个将决定中国的在纺织品和服装的供应潜力。在第五节，模拟将开展项目纺织品的未来路径和服装行业对中国和主要的纺织品和服装出口的经济体。本文的最后的部分主要讲了结果及其影响。.不断变化的国际比较优势中国的纺织品和服装出口的快速增长，导致在全球纺织品和服装市场发生重大变化（表一）.2。1970年中国占总纺织品出口不到原产于发展中经济体的份额的14，总服装出口的发展中经济体的不到5。自那以后，特别是自70年代中期，中国已经获得了可观的市场份额。到1988年（表一未画出），中国的市场份额已经达到顶峰，占总纺织品出口超过原产于发展中国家的22，或世界纺织品出口的7。至于服装出口，中国的市场份额不断增加。到1994年，中国占服装出口原产于发展中国家的26，或占世界服装出口的16。1994年中国超过亚洲新兴工业化经济体（NIEs）香港，韩国和台湾作为世界上最大的服装出口国。正如中国的纺织品和服装出口激增，出口增长新兴工业化经济体已经放缓。纺织品，新兴工业化经济体的份额，在20世纪80年代后期世界市场中以来一直稳步下降。到中期20世纪70年代，新兴工业化经济体的比重超过服装出口原产于发展中经济体70。但是到了1994年，这个市场的份额已经下降到不足20。该纺织品和服装出口之间的对比，彰显出新兴工业化经济体深刻的结构性变化。因为更多的服装是劳动密集型行业，新兴工业化经济体已经更迅速地失去了在纺织品服装的比较优势，因此，他们大的一部分的服装生产活动已经移居海外，尤其是中国与东盟。快速发展的服装部门在中国与东盟迅速扩大对新兴工业化经济体的纺织品需求。这有助于维护新兴工业化经济体“纺织品出口的增长。在新兴工业化经济体的市场份额急剧下降也一直伴随着出口激增的东盟和南亚。双方的纺织品和服装出口已在东盟强劲增长。 1970年至1994年，东盟的市场在来自发展中经济体的纺织出口的份额几乎翻了一倍，而其服装份额也增加了一倍以上。南亚是20世纪50年代的纺织品的重要的出口商。类似于中国在20世纪50年代和80年代之间内向型的政策制度下失去了它的市场。随着近几年的经济改革，然而南亚夺回了其失去的部分市场。在1994年南亚成为第三大的纺织品出口国，其出口服装赶上那些属于东盟经济体的国家。在目前的增长速度下，在不久的将来南亚的出口即将取代东盟的出口。我们可以注意到新有趣的是新兴工业化经济体失去的市场份额已经完全由中国，东盟和南亚捕获。这大约二十年为一个周期发生，但最重要的变化发生在20世纪80年代中期，当中国的出口开始激增。随着新兴工业化经济体成功地从服装转向到更多的资本密集型产品，这种转变已经非常平稳地发生。中国明显领先南亚地区的纺织品和服装出口正处在一个发展到类似一些欠发达的东盟经济体阶段 - 印度尼西亚和菲律宾，但略微落后于较发达成员东盟 - 马来西亚和泰国。越南，东盟中的最新成员，是类似南亚的阶段。当中国在世界服装市场开始取代新兴工业化经济体时，中国与新兴工业化经济体之间的收入远大于目前的中国和南亚经济体之间的差距。这意味着南亚可能面临的来自中国的竞争比中国来自新兴工业化经济体的竞争更强。这也意味着，那将决定于中国可以如何迅速摆脱从服装的出口，世界经济很可能会察觉中国，南亚和东盟在相当一段时间的全球生产和贸易的综合影响。在劳动密集型产品出口的这些人口众多的经济体在世界经济结构调整中将产生很大的压力。.需求方其中一个最重要的因素决定了中国纺织品和服装市场在世界上的竞争力将逐步走出MFA.乌拉圭回合协定在纺织品和服装（ATC）方面代表着世界贸易的纺织品和服装自由化的重要一步。这是一个过渡性协议并为在法律框架上消除MFA限制在超过10年的时间里（1995年一月1月1日，1，2005）。转型后，同样的规则将适用于纺织品和服装贸易以及其他制造交易品。此外，ATC也需要在限制方面不一致于GATT不同于那些在MFA保持并使其符合关贸总协定或消除。在过渡时期，该ATC在限制下还提供了增加配额增长率相对于其余的产品。逐步淘汰MFA密布尾重，近一半的纺织和在配额限制剩下的服装产品，直到2004年。如果进口选择经济自由化的产品不属于被限制的MFA，那将有点实质性的自由化在2005年之前（1994年巴什; Blokker和1994年Deelstra）。在转型过程中，一个特殊保障机制类似MFA是供进口国实施数量限制在产品集成方面。在进入效果后的最初几个月世界贸易组织协定，美国对于咨询所提出的20“电话”调用特别保障条款（贸发会议1995年b）。还有一个隐患是即使经过特殊保障在过渡期后也将变得不可用，进口经济体将使用其他保护主义措施的替代品对于MFA。反倾销和反补贴很可能成为青睐的工具。随着配额的加速是基于配额的增长率在1994年12月31日生效。配额生长的初始速率确定的程度临界配额扩大。在配额增长率存在的差异会在出口经济体之间导致更大的悬殊以及为增加不同的产品的差异配额量。CHINAS TEXTILE AND CLOTHING EXPORTS IN A CHANGING WORLD ECONOMYYONGZHENG YANGCHUANSHUI ZHONG(March 1998)Originally Published in The Developing Economies, XXXVI-1: 323Textiles and clothing are among the first manufactured products an industrializing economy produces. They played a critical role in the early stage of industrialization in Britain, parts of North America, and Japan, and more recently in the export-oriented growth of the East Asian economies. Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan relied heavily on textiles and clothing for their exports from the 1950s to the mid-1980s. In the last two decades, several ASEAN economies and China have become large producers and exporters of textiles and clothing. Major South Asian economies, namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, have also emerged as significant textile and clothing exporters in the last few years.As more economies enter the world textile and clothing market, competition has become intense. At the same time the market remains the most protected among manufactured commodities in industrial economies. Although the Multi-fiber Arrangement (MFA),1 which has regulated the world textile and clothing market through voluntary export restraints (VERs) for over two decades, is to be phased out by the year 2005, tariffs on textiles and clothing remain high in industrial markets. Textile and clothing exports from developing economies are often subject to anti-dumping actions in industrial markets. Thus it is not clear to what extent the world market can accommodate further expansion of textile and clothing exports from developing economies. Despite the protection, import penetration for these commodities is among the highest in industrial markets. Thus in the long run, even after the MFA is removed, large export expansion by developing countries may depress world prices, reducing the benefits of export expansion to exporting economies. Such an adverse terms of trade effect would be mitigated if textile and clothing trade among developing economies further increases.As the worlds largest clothing exporter and second largest textile exporter, China has a particularly important role to play in this global issue. In the 1980s, it was feared that industrial economies may not be able to accommodate Chinas continued expansion of textile and clothing exports (Whalley 1992). MFA restrictions have indeed become increasingly severe, but China has managed to increase its exports rapidly. In the fourteen years from 1980 to 1994, Chinas exports of textiles and clothing increased eightfold. With rapid increases in domestic costs, however, Chinas exports of textiles and clothing are approaching their peak and have begun to shift from textiles, clothing, and other labor-intensive manufactures to more capital- and technology-intensive products (Garnaut 1996). While the shift is inevitable as trade theory suggests, the timing of the shift has important policy implications. For China, the question is how much longer China can expand its exports before it loses competitiveness, and what consequences this may bring to its textile and clothing sector. Apart from the long-term supply potential, there are several demand factors affecting Chinas prospects for textile and clothing exports. The phasing out of the MFA would encourage Chinas textile and clothing exports, while uncertainty surrounding the outcome of Chinas WTO (World Trade Organization) membership negotiations tends to discourage its exports. For Chinas competitors, especially the latecomer in the world textile and clothing markets (such as the South Asian and some ASEAN economies), the timing of Chinas shift has major implications for the long-term growth of their exports. This paper examines the prospects for Chinas textile and clothing exports and its implications for other textile and clothing exporters. Both supply- and demand side factors will be taken into account in this study. In the following section, Chinas textile and clothing exports will be placed in global perspective and changing International comparative advantage will be analyzed. Section III examines the demand factors associated with the Uruguay Round reform and Chinas WTO membership negotiations, and Section IV analyzes the economic and demographic factors which determine Chinas supply potential in textiles and clothing. In Section V, simulations will be carried out to project the future path of the textile and clothing sector for China and major textile and clothing exporting economies. The major findings and their implications of the paper are summarized in the final section.II. CHANGING INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGEThe rapid growth of Chinas textile and clothing exports has led to major changes in the world textile and clothing markets (Table I).2 In 1970 China accounted for less than 14 per cent of total textile exports originating in developing economies, and less than 5 per cent of total clothing exports from developing economies. Since then, especially since the mid-1970s, China has gained substantial market share. By 1988 (not shown in Table I), Chinas market share had peaked, accounting for more than 22 per cent of total textile exports originating in developing countries, or 7 per cent of world textile exports. As for clothing exports, Chinas market share has continued to increase. By 1994 China accounted for 26 per cent of clothing exports originating in developing countries, or 16 per cent of world clothing exports. In 1994 China overtook Asias newly industrializing economies (NIEs)Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwanas the worlds largest clothing exporter.Just as Chinas textile and clothing exports have surged, export growth in the NIEs has slowed. For textiles, the NIEs share in the world market peaked in the late 1980s and has declined steadily ever since. The NIEs accounted for more than 70 per cent of clothing exports originating in developing economies up to the mid-1970s. By 1994, however, this market share had fallen to less than 20 per cent. The contrast between textile and clothing exports underlines deep structural change in the NIEs. Because clothing is more labor-intensive than textiles, the NIEs have lost comparative advantage in clothing more rapidly than in textiles and hence a large part of their clothing production activities has moved overseas, especially to China and ASEAN. Rapid expansion of the clothing sector in China and ASEAN has generated increased demand for textiles from the NIEs. This has helped maintain the growth of NIEs textile exports.The dramatic declines in the NIEs market share have also been concomitant with the export surges in ASEAN and South Asia. Both textile and clothing exports have grown strongly in ASEAN. Between 1970 and 1994, ASEANs share in textile exports from developing economies nearly doubled, while its share in clothing more than doubled. South Asia was a significant exporter of textiles in the 1950s. Similar to China it lost much of its market under the inward-looking policy regimes between the 1950s and the 1980s. With economic reform in recent years, however, South Asia has recaptured part of its lost market. In 1994 South Asia was the third largest textile exporter with its clothing exports catching up to those from the ASEAN economies. With the current rate of growth, South Asian exports are poised to overtake ASEAN exports in a near future.It is interesting to note that the lost market share by the NIEs has been entirely captured by China, ASEAN, and South Asia. This occurred in a period of about two decades, but most of the shift occurred after the mid-1980s when Chinas exports began to surge. This transition has occurred rather smoothly, with the NIEs successfully shifting away from clothing to more capital-intensive commodities. China is clearly ahead of South Asia in textile and clothing exports and is at a similar stage of development to some of the less developed ASEAN economies Indonesia and the Philippines, but slightly behind the more developed members of ASEANMalaysia and Thailand. Vietnam, the newest member of ASEAN, is in a similar stage to South Asia.The income gaps between China and the NIEs were much larger when China began to replace the NIEs in world clothing markets than the current gaps between China and the South Asian economies. This means that South Asia may face stronger competition from China than China did from the NIEs. It also means that, depending on how rapidly China can move away from clothing exports, the world economy is likely to feel the combined impact of China, South Asia, and ASEAN on global production and trade for a considerable time to come. The concentration in labor-intensive exports by these populous economies will exert great pressure on structural adjustment in the world economy.III. THE DEMAND SIDEOne of the most important factors determining Chinas competitiveness in world textile and clothing markets will be the phasing out of the MFA.3 The Uruguay Round Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) represents a major step forward in the liberalization of world trade in textiles and clothing. It is a transitional agreement and provides a legal framework for the elimination of MFA restrictions over a ten-year period (January 1, 1995January 1, 2005). After the transition, the same rules will apply to trade in textiles and clothing as to trade in other manufactured goods. In addition, the ATC also requires that restrictions inconsistent with GATT other than those maintained under the MFA be either brought into conformity with GATT or eliminated. The ATC also provides for increases in quota growth rates for products remaining under restrictions during the transition period.The phasing out of the MFA is heavily end-loaded, with nearly half of textile and clothing products remaining under quota restrictions until 2004. If importing economies choose to liberalize products which are not restricted by the MFA, there will be little substantive liberalization before 2005 (Bagchi 1994; Blocker and Deelstra 1994). In the transition process, a special safeguard mechanism similar to the MFA is available for importing economies to impose quantitative restrictions on products yet to be integrated. In the first few months after the entry into effect of the WTO agreements, the United States made twenty “calls” for consultation by invoking the special safeguard provision (UNCTAD 1995b). There is also a fear that even after the special safeguard becomes unavailable after the transition period, importing economies will use other protectionist measures as a substitute for the MFA. Anti-dumping and countervailing are likely to be favored instruments.As quota acceleration is based on the quota growth rates effective on December 31, 1994, the initial rates of quota growth are critical in determining the extent of quota enlargement. Existing differences in quota growth rates will lead to greater disparities among exporting economies as well as to increases in the variations in quota volumes for different products.