《经济学管理学基础知识及其应用》 .doc

和君商学院经济学管理学基础知识及其应用 和君咨询基础知识及其应用资料选读Table of ContentsA Note On Frameworks Strategic Tools Frameworks Economics Frameworks Finance Accounting Frameworks Sample Cases An IntroductionSample Case Suggested SolutionProfitability CasesMarket Entry General Strategy CasesMore Case Questions To TryMarket Sizing Estimation Cases More Market Sizing Estimation Cases To Try Brainteasers Cases With SlidesA Note On FrameworksBy the time you face a client we would like you to feel very confident that you can listen to a description of a situation and rapidly put together a systematic logical way of analyzing it As a consultant the first important thing is how well you break a problem down and then logically try to solve it We want you to be able to say to yourself Ive done this for several cases I know I can deal with itA framework can guide your intelligent questioning of the clients lets youlay out your analysis in a coherent manner and lets you apply your experience to the case by pointing out how the case is an instance of a more general problem to which your experience appliesWe cannot overemphasize that this is a skill developed through practice There is no substitute for confronting a case building your own systematic way to analyze it then improving your model through discussions with others Never be afraid to expose your model to others for fear that it is crude incomplete or wrong All frameworks have holes in them Thats the whole point of practicingto learn how to improve your initial models so that you will have a richer and more sophisticated set of organizing schemas to draw uponWhat is a frameworkThe world is confusing and to understand cause-effect relationships we have to distill most problems to their essence Thats what theory does highlight the most important aspects of a situation that account for most of the variance between specific instances of the situationYou might call these important aspects drivers or critical success factors or independent variables" If our model of the world is almost as complex as the world itself it is not very usefulmodels help us understand and predict only when they strip a problem down to something we can grasp a small set of key driving forces that we can focus on while ignoring other things that have far less explanatory power If you give a manager a checklist of 37 things to focus on she simply cannot grasp the essence of the problem If you can highlight a much smaller number of drivers and articulate the relationships among them she not only can grasp the problem but can apply those insights to other similar problemsFrameworksor call them models analytical schemas analytical lenses conceptual maps etc show the key cause and effect relationships that you think a person should focus on to approach a given situation They apply to a general class of problems each case is a specific instance of a problem class The acid test of whether a framework is useful is that it bothexplains and predicts It helps you understand what is going on in this case and draw appropriate analogies to other cases that exemplify the same problem class It helps you predict what will happen if the client takes a given course of action and test your prediction by seeing how other cases in the same problem class turn out These predictions are hypothesesthey are insights into what would follow if the world worked the way your model suggestsYou should not try to follow a recipe when constructing frameworks There are many many ways to organize an approach to a problem identify the key drivers and articulate the relationships among them However some of these organizing structures are weak I will give you a few suggestions here purely to stimulate your thinking not because they represent the best frameworksChecklists The weakest framework is the checklist Simply telling managers Here are some things to think about does not help much A checklist does extract some elements from the problem for managers to focus on but it does not provide much insight into the nature of the problem nor does it show the relationship among the elementsSWOT Analyses One step up from a checklist and still a weak framework in my humble view is a SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats analysis This is basically a checklist supplemented by pros and cons" Again it does not provide a lot of insight into the cause-effect relationships in the problem and it does not show a relationship among those elementsThe Familiar Frameworks Let me pause for a moment here and suggest that I do not think much of the 7S framework McKinsey used that is in the heart of In Search of Excellence when it is used simply as a checklist Similarly it is a misuse of Porters five forces model simply to use the forces as topic headings Porter lays out many causal connections between each force and industry structure it is the causal connections not the list of five forces in and of itself which is of intellectual valueArticulating the three generic strategies cost leadership differentiation - broad market and differentiation - narrow market is not very interesting what is interesting is the notion that being stuck in the middle does not work Breaking a problem down into business processes of value chains represents progress only if you can articulate something about the interrelationships among those processes or linksMatrices A popular framework that is often misused is a matrix from the hoary 2x2 to the sophisticated multi-dimensional matrices Drawing a matrix does not in itself constitute building a framework What matters is whether you can articulate how the cells are different in some systematic wayFit Frameworks Somewhat more sophisticated is a fit framework For example you were exposed to the Tushman-Nadler diagnostic model in Organizational Behavior The idea is that the organization works only when it achieves congruence between its internal structure and the environment and congruence among its internal elements For example and organic structure may represent a better fit in a turbulent environment that a mechanistic structure which works better in more predictable environmentsSimilarly a low-cost producer cannot afford heavy RD investments while a firm pursuing first-mover strategy cannot compete on the basis of efficiency To use this kind of framework you need to spell-out the elements and what kinds of congruent configurations they can formDecision Trees An excellent framework is a decision tree You have had considerable practice constructing these during your first year and decision trees have a good deal of rigor and value especially in forcing you to identify contingencies Those of you interviewing with McKinsey will find that decision trees are looked on with great favor thereCausal models An often less formal framework than a decision tree is a causal model that essentially shows the cause and effect relationships between a set of drivers These models tend to oversimplify contingencies but nonetheless can add considerable clarity to your thinking The most formal kind of cause model you could propose is a multivariate equation which with absolute precision and clarity specifies what you think the drivers are how they affect the outcome and what the functional form of their impact would look likeSome causal models specify the dynamics of a situation often by uncovering interlocking cycles of a behavior over time Again the point is not that such models are perfect over time but cyclical behavior is very common in the world and powerful insights can be gained from identifying interlocking cycles that dampen andor reinforce one anotherWith imagination and insight you will create other types of frameworks What all good frameworks have in common is that they identify the drivers of a situation and specify both the interrelationships among those drivers and how they affect important outcomesStrategic Tools FrameworksGeneral marketing strategy and operations concepts for use in consultingGeneral Tools For ConsultingThe list presented in the following sections though not exhaustive covers most of the standard tools you will use in consulting Use these tools to think about the key issues and to lead you from the facts to a conclusionAs you look at these tools though remember that no framework or tool is as good as an original framework or tool Play with these ideas and frameworks until you develop a set of your own frameworks that you feel comfortable usingFinally pay attention to how logically you structure your proposal or answer This is a bit more straightforward to learn than the frameworks but is no less important An example of a structure for your interaction is1 State or restate the problem2 Identify the key issues for further investigation3 Apply the relevant frameworks4 Summarize and provide a recommendation It may also be useful to discuss implications of your recommendation such as competitive reactions and acceptance within the client organizationThe Five ForcesMichael Porters Five Forces Model for industry structure and attractiveness analysis is a classic analysis for cases that involve a decision as to whether to invest in or enter a given industry The five forces areThreat Of New EntrantsThreat Of SubstitutesSupplier Power Buyer Power Industry RivalryThreat Of New Entrants This force measures the ease with which new competitors may enter the market and disrupt the position of other firms The threat that outsiders will enter a market is stronger when the barriers to entry are low or when incumbents will not fight to prevent a newcomer from gaining a market foothold In addition when a newcomer can expect to earn an attractive profit the barriers to entry are diminishedThreat of Substitutes The threat posed by substitute products is strong when the features of substitutes are attractive switching costs are low and buyers believe substitutes have equal or better featuresSupplier Power Suppliers to an industry are a strong competitive force whenever they have sufficient bargaining power to command a price premium for their materials or components Suppliers also have more power when they can affect competition among industry rivals by the reliability of their deliveries or by the quality and performance of the items they supplyBuyer Power Buyers become a stronger competitive force the more they are able to exercise bargaining leverage over price quality service or other terms or conditions of sale Buyers gain strength through their sheer size and when the purchase is critical to the sellers successIndustry Rivalry Often the most powerful of the five forces is the competitive battle among rivals that are already in the industry The intensity with which competitors jockey for position and competitive advantages indicates the strength of the influence of this forceAlthough this model can provide a lot of insight into an industry beware of becoming too dependent on Porter in your case interviews Also make sure you understand the underlying drivers of the forces and why and how they create varied competitive environments In addition you may wish to add to this framework any external impacts from governmentpolitical factors and technology changesThe Three Cs Or Is It 7 This simple framework can be helpful for marketing cases as a simple way to begin looking into a companys position in the market The first three Cs rarely get to all of the issues but they do provide a broad framework to get the analysis started The last four Cs may be useful additions to further your analysis As you practice cases begin to develop a series of potential questions related to each C that will help you to drill down further towards the root causes of the problem at hand Some examples are given for the first 3 Cs belowCustomerWhat is the unmet needWhich segment are weshould we targetAre they price sensitiveCompetitionWhat are strengthsweaknessesHow many are there and how concentrated are theyAre there existing or potential substitutesCompanyWhat are its strengthsweaknessesWhere in the value chain do we add valueCostCapacityCultureCompetenceThe 4 PsThis framework is suitable for marketing implementation cases It is not usually appropriate for beginning the analysis but it can be very helpful when you discuss implementation to make sure that you cover all of the issuesProductPromotionPricePlace distribution channel Value Chain AnalysisThis analysis can provide a good outline for analyzing a companys internal operations and the value of each step in making a product or service go from raw materials to a finished good or service Value chains vary dramatically for every industry but here are two examples that can be customizedSupportActivitiesCompany InfrastructureHuman Resource ManagementInformation SystemsProcurementPrimaryActivitiesInboundLogisticsOperationsOutboundLogisticsMarketing SalesServicesValue chain analyses step you through the companys processes and help you understand how much value each step adds Through this type of analysis you can discern possible synergies among various units of an organization and determine which value activities are best outsourced and which are best developed internally It can also show you where there may be potential to remove a step in the process that adds little value Finally it may uncover where a company is weak and thus vulnerablePrimary Activities Create the product or service deliver it to the market create a demand for the product and provide after-sale support The categories of primary activities are inbound logistics operations outbound logistics marketing and sales and serviceSupport Activities Provide the input and infrastructure that allow the primary activities to take place The categories are company infrastructure human resource management information systems and procurementResearch Development SourcingInboundlogisticsManu-facturingDistributionSales MarketingCustomerVertical IntegrationSome companies find beneficial to integrate backward towards their suppliers or forward towards their customers Vertical integration makes sense when a company requires greater control of a supplier or buyer that has major impact on its product cost or when the existing relationship involves a high level of asset specificitySWOT AnalysisThis is another basic framework that may be helpful in structuring an analysis about a companys position and the external environmentStrengthsWeaknesses Opportunitis ThreatsAs with the three Cs this framework provides a start but is rarely sufficient to analyze thoroughly a caseBCG MatrixThis matrix sometimes referred-to as the growthshare matrix is named after its originator the Boston Co