人力资本投资-舒尔茨-英文.docx

Review,Vol.51 ,No. 1 (Mar., 1961), 1 -17.InvestmentinHumanCapitalTheodoreW.SchultzTheAmericanEconomicStableURL:httplinks.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28196103%2951%3A1%3CI%3AIIHC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4TheAmericanEconomicReviewiscurrentlypublishedbyAmericanEconomicAssociation.YouruseoftheJSTORarchiveindicatesyouracceptanceofJSTOR'sTermsandConditionsofUse,availableath(tp:/www.jstor.org/about/terms.html.JSTOR'sTermsandConditionsofUseprovides,inpart,thatunlessyouhaveobtainedpriorpermission,youmaynotdownloadanentireissueofajournalormultiplecopiesofarticles,andyoumayusecontentintheJSTORarchiveonlyforyourpersonal,non-commercialuse.Pleasecontactthepublisherregardinganyfurtheruseofthiswork.Publishercontactinformationmaybeobtainedathttp:/www.jstor.org/joumals/aea.html.EachcopyofanypartofaJSTORtransmissionmustcontainthesamecopyrightnoticethatappearsonthescreenorprintedpageofsuchtransmission.JSTORisanindependentnot-for-profitorganizationdedicatedtocreatingandpreser,ingadigitalarchiveofscholarlyjournals.FormoreinformationregardingJSTOR,pleasecontactjstor-infbumich.edu.http:/www.jstor.org/WedJan1412:18:292004TheAmericanEconomicReviewVOLUMELIMARCH1961NUMBERONEINVESTMENTINHUMANCAPITAL*ByTHEODOREW.SCHULTZAlthoughitisobviousthatpeopleacquireusefulskillsandknowledge,itisnotobviousthattheseskillsandknowledgeareaformofcapital,thatthiscapitalisinsubstantialpartaproductofdeliberateinvestment,thatithasgrowninWesternsocietiesatamuchfasterratethanconventional(nonhuman)capital,andthatitsgrowthmaywellbethemostdistinctivefeatureoftheeconomicsystem.Ithasbeenwidelyobservedthatincreasesinnationaloutputhavebeenlargecomparedwiththeincreasesofland,man-hours,andphysicalreproduciblecapital.Investmentinhumancapitalisprobablythemajorexplanationforthisdifference.Muchofwhatwecallconsumptionconstitutesinvestmentinhumancapital.Directexpendituresoneducation,health,andinternalmigrationtotakeadvantageofbetterjobopportunitiesareclearexamples.Earningsforegonebymaturestudentsattendingschlandbyworkersacquiringon-the-jobtrainingareequallyclearexamples.Yetnowheredotheseenterintoournationalaccounts.Theuseofleisuretimetoimproveskillsandknowledgeiswidespreadandittooisunrecorded.Intheseandsimilarwaysthequalityofhumaneffortcanbegreatlyimprovedanditsproductivityenhanced.!shallcontendthatsuchinvestmentinhumancapitalaccountsformostoftheimpressiveriseintherealearningsperworker.Ishallcomment,first,onthereasonswhyeconomistshaveshiedawayfromtheexplicitanalysisofinvestmentinhumancapital,andthen,onthecapacityofsuchinvestmenttoexplainmanyapuzzleabouteconomicgrowth.Mainly,however,Ishallconcentrateonthescopeandsubstanceofhumancapitalanditsformation.InclosingIshallconsidersomesocialandpolicyimplications.*PresidentialAddressdeliveredattheSeventy-ThirdAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanEconomicASSOCiaIiOn.SaintLouis.December28.l96O.TheauthorisindebtedtohiscolleaguesMiltonFriodman,forhisveryhelpfulsuggestionstogainclarityandcogency,andHarryG.Johnsonforpointingoutanumberofambiguities.Number62ofaseriesofphotographsofpastpresidentsoftheAssociation.I. ShyingAwayfromInvestmentinManEconomistshavelongknownthatpeopleareanimportantpartofthewealthofnations.Measuredbywhatlaborcontributestooutput,theproductivecapacityofhumanbeingsisnowvastlylargerthanallotherformsofwealthtakentogether.Whateconomistshavenotstressedisthesimpletruththatpeopleinvestinthemselvesandthattheseinvestmentsareverylarge.Althougheconomistsareseldomtimidinenteringonabstractanalysisandareoftenproudofbeingimpractical,theyhavenotbeenboldincomingtogripswiththisformofinvestment.Whenevertheycomeevenclose,theyproceedgingerlyasiftheyweresteppingintodeepwater.Nodoubttherearereasonsforbeingwary.Deep-seatedmoralandphilosophicalissuesareeverpresent.Freemenarefirstandforemosttheendtobeservedbyeconomicendeavor;theyarenotpropertyormarketableassets.Andnotleast,ithasbeenalltooconvenientinmarginalproductivityanalysistotreatlaborasifitwereauniquebundleofinnateabilitiesthatarewhollyfreeofcapital.Themerethoughtofinvestmentinhumanbeingsisoffensivetosomeamongus.1Ourvaluesandbeliefsinhibitusfromlookinguponhumanbeingsascapitalgoods,exceptinslavery,andthisweabhor.Wearenotunaffectedbythelongstruggletoridsocietyofindenturedserviceandtoevolvepoliticalandlegalinstitutionstokeepmenfreefrombondage.Theseareachievementsthatweprizehighly.Hence,totreathumanbeingsaswealththatcanbeaugmentedbyinvestmentrunscountertodeeplyheldvalues.Itseemstoreducemanonceagaintoamerematerialcomponent,tosomethingakintoproperty.Andformantolookuponhimselfasacapitalgood,evenifitdidnotimpairhisfreedom,mayseemtodebasehim.NolessapersonthanJ.S.MillatonetimeinsistedthatthepeopleofacountryshouldnotbeIoOkeduponaswealthbecausewealthexistedonlyforthesakeofpeople15.ButsurelyMillwaswrong;thereisnothingintheconceptofhumanwealthcontrarytohisideathatitexistsonlyfortheadvantageofpeople.Byinvestinginthemselves,peoplecanenlargetherangeofchoiceavailabletothem.Itisonewayfreemencanenhancetheirwelfare.Amongthefewwhohavelookeduponhumanbeingsascapital,therearethreedistinguishednames.Thephilosopher-economistAdamSmithboldlyincludedalloftheacquiredandusefulabilitiesofalloftheinhabitantsofacountryasapartofcapital.SodidH.vonThinen,whothenwentontoarguethattheconceptofcapitalappliedtomandidnotdegradehimorimpairhisfreedomanddignity,butonthecontrarythatthefailuretoapplytheconceptwasespeciallyperniciousinwars;u.fdrhere.onewillsacrificeinabattleahundred1ThispciragraphdrawsontheintroductiontomyTellerLecture16.humanbeingsintheprimeoftheirliveswithoutathoughtinordertosaveonegun.,Thereasonisthat,44.thepurchaseofacannoncausesanoutlayofpublicfunds,whereashumanbeingsaretobehadfornothingbymeansofamereconscriptiondecree,20.IrvingFisheralsoclearlyandcogentlypresentedanall-inclusiveconceptofcapital6.Yetthemainstreamofthoughthasheldthatitisneitherappropriatenorpracticaltoapplytheconceptofcapitaltohumanbeings.Marshall11,whosegreatprestigegoesfartoexplainwhythisviewwasaccepted,heldthatwhilehumanbeingsareincontestablycapitalfromanabstractandmathematicalpointofview,itwouldbeoutoftouchwiththemarketplacetotreatthemascapitalinpracticalanalyses.Investmentinhumanbeingshasaccordinglyseldombeenincorporatedintheformalcoreofeconomics,eventhoughmanyeconomists,includingMarshall,haveseenitsrelevanceatonepointoranotherinwhattheyhavewritten.Thefailuretotreathumanresourcesexplicitlyasaformofcapital,asaproducedmeansofproduction,astheproductofinvestment,hasfosteredtheretentionoftheclassicalnotionoflaborasacapacitytodomanualworkrequiringlittleknowledgeandskill,acapacitywithwhich,accordingtothisnotion,laborersareendowedaboutequally.Thisnotionoflaborwaswrongintheclassicalperiodanditispatentlywrongnow.Countingindividualswhocanandwanttoworkandtreatingsuchacountasameasureofthequantityofaneconomicfactorisnomoremeaningfulthanitwouldbetocountthenumberofallmannerofmachinestodeterminetheireconomicimportanceeitherasastockofcapitalorasaflowofproductiveservices.Laborershavebecomecapitalistsnotfromadiffusionoftheownershipofcorporationstocks,asfolklorewouldhaveit,butfromtheacquisitionofknowledgeandskillthathaveeconomicvalue9.Thisknowledgeandskillareingreatparttheproductofinvestmentand,combinedwithotherhumaninvestment,predominantlyaccountfortheproductivesuperiorityofthetechnicallyadvancedcountries.ToomittheminstudyingeconomicgrowthisliketryingtoexplainSovietideologywithoutMarx.II. EconomicGrowthfromHumanCapitalManyparadoxesandpuzzlesaboutourdynamic,growingeconomycanberesolvedoncehumaninvestmentistakenintoaccount.Letmebeginbysketchingsomethatareminorthoughnottrivial.Whenfarmpeopletakenonfarmjobstheyearnsubstantiallylessthanindustrialworkersofthesamerace,age,andsex.Similarlynonwhiteurbanmalesearnmuchlessthanwhitemalesevenafterallowanceismadefortheeffectsofdifferencesinunemployment,age,citysizeandregion21.Becausethesedifferentialsinearningscorrespondcloselytocorrespondingdifferentialsineducation,theystronglysuggestthattheoneisaconsequenceoftheother.Negroeswhooperatefarms,whetherastenantsorasowners,earnmuchlessthanwhitesoncomparablefarms.2Fortunately,cropsandlivestockarenotvulnerabletotheblightofdiscrimination.Thelargedifferencesinearningsseemrathertoreflectmainlythedifferencesinhealthandeducation.WorkersintheSouthontheaverageearnappreciablylessthanintheNorthorWestandtheyalsohaveontheaveragelesseducation.Mostmigratoryfarmworkersearnverylittleindeedbycomparisonwithotherworkers.Manyofthemhavevirtuallynoschooling,areinpoorhealth,areunskilled,andhavelittleabilitytodousefulwork.Tourgethatthedifferencesintheamountofhumaninvestmentmayexplainthesedifferencesinearningsseemselementary.Ofmorerecentvintageareobservationsshowingyoungerworkersatacompetitiveadvantage;forexample,youngmenenteringthelaborforcearesaidtohaveanadvantageoverunemployedolderworkersinobtainingsatisfactoryjobs.Mostof.theseyoungpeoplepossesstwelveyearsofschool,mostoftheolderworkerssixyearsorless.Theobservedadvantageoftheseyoungerworkersmaythereforeresultnotfrominflexibilitiesinsocialsecurityorinretirementprograms,orfromsociologicalpreferenceofemployers,butfromrealdifferencesinproductivityconnectedwithoneformofhumaninvestment,i.e.,education.Andyetanotherexample,thecurverelatingincometoagetendstobesteeperforskilledthanforunskilledpersons.Investmentinon-the-jobtrainingseemsalikelyexplanation,asIshallnotelater.Economicgrowthrequiresmuchinternalmigrationofworkerstoadjusttochangingjobopportunities10.Youngmenandwomenmovemorereadilythanolderworkers.Surelythismakeseconomicsensewhenonerecognizesthatthecostsofsuchmigrationareaformofhumaninvestment.Youngpeoplehavemoreyearsaheadofthemthanolderworkersduringwhichtheycanrealizeonsuchaninvestment.Henceittakeslessofawagedifferentialtomakeiteconomicallyadvantageousforthemtomove,or,toputitdifferently,youngpeoplecanexpectahigherreturnontheirinvestmentinmigrationthanolderpeople.Thisdifferentialmayexplainselectivemigrationwithoutrequiringanappealtosociologicaldifferencesbetweenyoungandoldpeople.Theexamplessofargivenareforinvestmentinhumanbeingsthatyieldareturnoveralongperiod.Thisistrueequallyofinvestmentineducation,training,andmigrationofyoungpeople.Notallinvestmentsinhumanbeingsareofthiskind;somearemorenearlyakintocurrentinputsasforexampleexpendituresonfoodandshelterinsomecoun-BasedonunpublishedpreliminaryresultsobtainedbyJosephWillettinhisPh.D.researchattheUniversityofChicago.trieswhereworkismainlytheapplicationofbrutehumanforce,callingforenergyandstamina,andwheretheintakeoffoodisfarfromenoughtodoafullday'swork.Onthe44hungry,steppesandintheteemingvalleysofAsia,millionsofadultmaleshavesomeageradietthattheycannotdomorethanafewhoursofhardwork.Tocallthemunderemployeddoesnotseempertinent.UndersuchcircumstancesitiscertainlymeaningfultotreatfoodpartlyasconsumptionandpartlyasaCUiTent“producergood,assomeIndianeconomistshavedone3.LetusnotforgetthatWesterneconomistsduringtheearlydecadesofindustrializationandeveninthetimeofMarshallandPigouoftenconnectedadditionalfoodforworkerswithincreasesinlaborproductivity.Letmenowpassontothreemajorperplexingquestionscloselyconnectedwiththeriddleofeconomicgrowth.First,considerthelong-periodbehaviorofthecapital-incomeratio.Weweretaughtthatacountrywhichamassedmorereproduciblecapitalrelativetoitslandandlaborwouldemploysuchcapitalingreatertdepth,becauseofitsgrowingabundanceandcheapness.Butapparentlythisisnotwhathappens.Onthecontrary,theestimatesnowavailableshowthatlessofsuchcapitaltendstobeemployedrelativetoincomeaseconomicgrowthpro-ceeds.Arewetoinferthattheratioofcapitaltoincomehasnorelevance,inexplainingeitherpovertyoropulence?Orthatariseofthisratioisnotaprerequisitetoeconomicgrowth?Thesequestionsraisefundamentalissuesbearingonmotivesandpreferencesforholdingwealthaswellasonthemotivesforparticularinvestmentsandthestockofcapitaltherebyaccumulated.Formypurposeallthatneedstobesaidisthattheseestimatesofcapital-incomeratiosrefertoonlyapartofallcapital.Theyexcludeinparticular,andmostunfortunately,anyhumancapital.Yethumancapitalhassurelybeenincreasingatarateosubstantiallygreaterthanreproducible(nonhuman)capital.Wecannot,therefore,inferfromtheseestimatesthatthestockofallcapitalhasbeendecreasingrelativetoincome.Onthecontrary,ifweacceptthenotimplausibleassumptionthatthemotivesandpreferencesofpeople,thetechnicalopportunitiesopentothem,andtheuncertaintyassociatedwitheconomicgrowthduringparticularperiodswereleadingpeopletomaintainroughlyaconstantratiobetweenallcapitalandincome,thedeclineintheestimatedcapital-incomeratio3issimplyasignalthathumancapitalhasbeenincreasingrelativelynotonlytoconventionalcapitalbutalsotoincome.Thebumpercropofestimatesthatshownationalincomeincreas-'1leaveasideherethediffcultiesinherentinidentifyingandmeasuringboththenonhumancapitalandtheincomeenteringintoestimatesofthisratio.Thereareindexnumberandaggregationproblemsaplenty.andnotallimprovementsinthequalityofthiscapitalhavebeenaccountedfbr,asIshallnotelater.ingfasterthannationalresourcesraisesasecondandnotunrelatedpuzzle.TheincomeoftheUnitedStateshasbeenincreasingatamuchvhigherratethanthecombinedamountofland,man-hoursworkedandthestockofreproduciblecapitalusedtoproducetheincome.More-over,thediscrepancybetweenthetworateshasbecomelargerfromonebusinesscycletothenextduringrecentdecades5.Tocallthisdiscrepancyameasureoftresourceproductivity,givesanametoourignorancebutdoesnotdispelit.Ifweaccepttheseestimates,theconnectionsbetweennationalresourcesandnationalincomehavebecomelooseandtenuousovertime.Unlessthisdiscrepancycanberesolved,receivedtheoryofproductionappliedtoinputsandoutputsascurrentlymeasuredisatoyandnotatoolforstudyingeconomicgrowth.Twosetsofforcesprobablyaccountforthediscrepancy,ifweneglectentirelytheindexnumberandaggregationproblemsthatbedevilallestimatesofsuchglobalaggregatesastotailoutputandtotalinput.Oneisreturnstoscale;thesecond,thelargeimprovementsinthequalityofinputsthathaveoccurredbuthavebeenomittedfromtheinputestimates.Oureconomyhasundoubtedlybeenexperiencingincreasingreturnstoscaleatsomepointsoffsetbydecreasingreturnsatothers.Ifwecansucceedinidentifyingandmeasuringthenetgains,theymayturnouttohavebeensubstantial.Theimprovementsinthequalityofinputsthathavenotbeenadequatelyallowedforarenodoubtpartlyinmaterial(nonhuman)capilal.Myownconception,howeverjsthatboththisdefectandtheomissionofeconomiesofscaleareminorsourcesofdiscrepancybetweentheratesofgrowthofinputsandoutputscomparedtotheimprovementsinhumancapacitythathavebeenomitted.Asmallsteptakesusfromthesetwopuzzlesraisedbyexistingestimatestoathirdwhichbringsustotheheartofthematter,namelythe-essentiallyunexplainedlargeincreaseinrealearningsofworkers.Canthisbeawindfall?Oraquasirentpendingtheadjustmentinthesupplyoflabor?Or,apurerentreflectingthefixedamountoflabor?Itseemsfarmorereasonablethatitrepresentsratherareturntotheinvestmentthathasbeenmadeinhumanbeings.Theobservedgrowthinproductivityperunitoflaborissimplyaconsequenceofholdingtheunitoflaborconstantovertimealthoughinfactthisunitoflaborhasbeenincreasingasaresultofasteadilygro