解决下岗工人如何合理择业的数学模型.doc
解决下岗工人如何合理择业的数学模型 摘要摘要：本文主要讨论了下岗工人如何合理择业的问题。首先分析了影响工人设定最低工资水平的各项因素，得出其主要与失业救济金、下岗时间和人均消费支出有关的结论，在此基础上，分析得出工人设定的最低工资水平随下岗时间的增加而按指数衰减规律下降，由此建立数学模型，并进行参数确定。在对北京、武汉、昆明等10个有代表性的城市的数据进行分析后，采用计算机模拟产生随机数并限定条件使之满足合理误差的方法得到各参数的多组取值，引入随机变量的分布并进行点估计和区间估计，又进行假设检验最终确定各参数。最后根据实际社会工资水平，并引入就业期望平均工资的概念，估算用人单位愿为工人提供的工资水平，并计算出工人找到满意工作所需要的等待时间。此模型在综合分析了经济发展程度不同的城市之后，得到统1的普适规律，可以作为政府制定适当失业救济金数目和最低工资标准的参考，具有1定的实用价值和指导意义。关键字：失业救济金，平均等待时间，最低工资标准，就业期望平均工资。AbstractAbstract: This article mainly discussed the issue which how the laid-off workers do choose works reasonably. First analyzed has affected the worker to establish the minimum wage level each factor, Obtains it mainly with the unemployment benefit, comes off sentry duty the time and the average per person expense disbursement related conclusion, In this foundation, The analysis obtains the minimum wage level which the worker establishes along with to come off sentry duty the time increase but according to the exponential decay rule to drop, From this the establishment mathematical model, and carries on the parameter determination. In after Beijing, Wuhan, Kunming and so on ten has the representative city the data to carry on the analysis, Uses the computer simulation to have the random number and the definition condition causes it to satisfy reasonable erroneous the method to obtain various parameters the multi- groups value, Introduces the random variable the distribution and carries on an estimate and the sector estimated, also carries on the supposition examination finally to determine various parameters. Finally acts according to the actual society wage level, and introduction employment expectation average wages concept, The estimate employer hopes the wage level which provides for the worker, and calculates the worker to find the standby period which satisfaction work needs. This model after generalized analysis economy degree of development different city, obtains the unification the general rule, May formulate the suitable unemployment benefit number and the minimum wage standard reference as the government, has the certain practical value and the guiding sense.KeyWord: Unemployment benefit;Average standby period; Minimum wage standard;The employment expects the average wages.
