宏观经济计量与核算课件.ppt

二、宏观经济计量与核算 MEASURING A NATIONS INCOME,The Circular Flow,Richard Stone(理查德斯通),1984年获诺贝尔经济学奖。二战期间，完成战争财源分析及1938和1940国民收入和支出估计白皮书。时任英国财政部顾问的凯恩斯感动地说：“我们在一个通过统计的快乐时代中”。1945年任剑桥大学新成立的应用经济学系的第一任主任。1950年，受联合国统计委员会委托，出版国民帐户体系（SNA），1968年修订后正式出版。1975年出版社会和人口统计系统（SSDS,Towards a system of social and demographic statistics）。,Wassily Leontief(沃西里里昂惕夫),1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖。1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中国铁道部顾问，1931年进入美国国民经济研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大学经济学教授。1941年出版美国经济结构：1919-1929，第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析。1966年出版投入产出经济学。,国民收入帐户 投入产出表 资金循环表 国际收支表 国民资产负债表,国民帐户体系A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS,Gross domestic product(GDP)is a measure of the income and expenditures of an economy.It is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given time period.,Gross Domestic Product,Important Features of GDP,Output is valued at market prices.It records only the value of final goods,not intermediate goods(the value is counted only once).It includes both tangible goods(food,clothing,cars)and intangible services(haircuts,housecleaning,doctor visits).,Important Features of GDP,It includes goods and services currently produced,not transactions involving goods produced in the past.It measures the value of production within the geographic confines of a country.,Important Features of GDP,It measures the value of production that takes place within a specific interval of time,usually a year or a quarter(three months).,What Is Counted in GDP?,GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally in markets.,What Is Not Counted in GDP?,GDP excludes most items that are produced and consumed at home and that never enter the marketplace.It excludes items produced and sold illicitly,such as illegal drugs.,Gross National Product,Gross national product(GNP)is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a given period of time by a nations permanent residents,regardless of where they are.,Three Other Measures of Income,Net National Product(NNP)Personal IncomeDisposable Personal Income,Net National Product(NNP),The total income of the residents of a nation after subtracting losses from depreciation.,Personal Income,The income that households and noncorporate businesses receive.,Disposable Personal Income,The income that household and noncorporate businesses have left after satisfying their obligations to the government.,Gross National Product,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,GNP National and Per Capita Income,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,National Income,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,The Four Components of GDP,GDP(Y)is the sum of the following:Consumption(C)Investment(I)Government Purchases(G)Net Exports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NX,The Four Components of GDP,Consumption(C):The spending by households on goods and services,with the exception of purchases of new housing.Investment(I):The spending on capital equipment,inventories,and structures,including new housing.,The Four Components of GDP,Government Purchases(G):The spending on goods and services by local,state,and federal governments.Does not include transfer payments because they are not made in exchange for currently produced goods or services.Net Exports(NX):Exports minus imports.,Breakdown of U.S.GDP:2000,Breakdown of U.S.GDP:2000,Consumption 69%,Investment15%,Breakdown of U.S.GDP:2000,Consumption 68%,Consumption 68%,Government Purchases19%,Breakdown of U.S.GDP:2000,Investment15%,Net Exports-1%,Breakdown of U.S.GDP:2000,Consumption 68%,Investment15%,Government Purchases19%,Real versus Nominal GDP,Nominal GDP values the production of goods and services at current prices.Real GDP values the production of goods and services at constant prices.,Real versus Nominal GDP,An accurate view of the economy requires adjusting nominal to real GDP by using the GDP deflator.,价格指数(Price Index),拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指数：帕斯卡(Pascke)指数：,GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator measures the current level of prices relative to the level of prices in the base year.It tells us the rise in nominal GDP that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a rise in the quantities produced.,GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:,GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:,Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP,Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:,Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP,Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:,Consumer Price Index,The consumer price index(CPI)is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer.It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.It reports the movement of prices using an index number.,Consumer Price Index,When the CPI rises,the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator,Economists and policymakers use both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising.There are important differences between the two.,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator,The CPI.includes only consumer goods.includes imports.is measured using a fixed basket of goods and services.,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator,The GDP Price Deflator.includes all goods and services produced domestically.excludes imports.is measured using currently produced goods and services.,GDP and Economic Well-Being,GDP is the best single measure of the economic well-being of a society.GDP per person tells us the income and expenditure of the average person in the economy.,GDP and Economic Well-Being,Higher GDP per person indicates a higher standard of living.GDP is not a perfect measure of the happiness or quality of life,however.,GDP and Economic Well-Being,Some things that contribute to well-being are not included in GDP.The value of leisure.The value of a clean environment.The value of almost all activity that takes place outside of markets,such as the value of the time parents spend with their children.,习题,下表描述的是作为最终产品出售给消费者的面包的生产过程。在生产过程的第一阶段，农民生产小麦2000千克并以每千克1.5元价格卖给面粉厂（假设每千克小麦做一个面包，生产过程没有损耗）。面粉厂把小麦加工成面粉以每千克2.5元的价格卖给面包厂。面包厂制成面包以每个5元的价格卖给零售商。最后，零售商以每个面包7元的价格卖给消费者。请回答下列问题：（1）填充下表。（2）面包的增值总量为多少？消费者对面包的支出为多少？,生产过程 经济活动 价格（元）增值额 1 农民出售小麦 1.5 2 面粉厂出售面粉 2.5 3 面包厂出售面包 5.0 4 零售商出售面包 7.0,5、世上最美好的事是：我已经长大，父母还未老;我有能力报答，父母仍然健康。6、没什么可怕的，大家都一样，在试探中不断前行。7、时间就像一张网，你撒在哪里，你的收获就在哪里。纽扣第一颗就扣错了，可你扣到最后一颗才发现。有些事一开始就是错的，可只有到最后才不得不承认。8、世上的事，只要肯用心去学，没有一件是太晚的。要始终保持敬畏之心，对阳光，对美，对痛楚。9、别再去抱怨身边人善变，多懂一些道理，明白一些事理，毕竟每个人都是越活越现实。10、山有封顶，还有彼岸，慢慢长途，终有回转，余味苦涩，终有回甘。11、人生就像是一个马尔可夫链，你的未来取决于你当下正在做的事，而无关于过去做完的事。12、女人，要么有美貌，要么有智慧，如果两者你都不占绝对优势，那你就选择善良。13、时间，抓住了就是黄金，虚度了就是流水。理想，努力了才叫梦想，放弃了那只是妄想。努力，虽然未必会收获，但放弃，就一定一无所获。14、一个人的知识，通过学习可以得到;一个人的成长，就必须通过磨练。若是自己没有尽力，就没有资格批评别人不用心。开口抱怨很容易，但是闭嘴努力的人更加值得尊敬。15、如果没有人为你遮风挡雨，那就学会自己披荆斩棘，面对一切，用倔强的骄傲，活出无人能及的精彩。5、人生每天都要笑，生活的下一秒发生什么，我们谁也不知道。所以，放下心里的纠结，放下脑中的烦恼，放下生活的不愉快，活在当下。人生喜怒哀乐，百般形态，不如在心里全部淡然处之，轻轻一笑，让心更自在，生命更恒久。积极者相信只有推动自己才能推动世界，只要推动自己就能推动世界。6、人性本善，纯如清溪流水凝露莹烁。欲望与情绪如风沙袭扰，把原本如天空旷蔚蓝的心蒙蔽。但我知道，每个人的心灵深处，不管乌云密布还是阴淤苍茫，但依然有一道彩虹，亮丽于心中某处。7、每个人的心里，都藏着一个了不起的自己，只要你不颓废，不消极，一直悄悄酝酿着乐观，培养着豁达，坚持着善良，只要在路上，就没有到达不了的远方！8、不要活在别人眼中，更不要活在别人嘴中。世界不会因为你的抱怨不满而为你改变，你能做到的只有改变你自己！9、欲戴王冠，必承其重。哪有什么好命天赐，不都是一路披荆斩棘才换来的。10、放手如拔牙。牙被拔掉的那一刻，你会觉得解脱。但舌头总会不由自主地往那个空空的牙洞里舔，一天数次。不痛了不代表你能完全无视，留下的那个空缺永远都在，偶尔甚至会异常挂念。适应是需要时间的，但牙总是要拔，因为太痛，所以终归还是要放手，随它去。11、这个世界其实很公平，你想要比别人强，你就必须去做别人不想做的事，你想要过更好的生活，你就必须去承受更多的困难，承受别人不能承受的压力。12、逆境给人宝贵的磨炼机会。只有经得起环境考验的人，才能算是真正的强者。自古以来的伟人，大多是抱着不屈不挠的精神，从逆境中挣扎奋斗过来的。13、不同的人生，有不同的幸福。去发现你所拥有幸运，少抱怨上苍的不公，把握属于自己的幸福。你，我，我们大家都可以经历幸福的人生。14、给自己一份坚强，擦干眼泪；给自己一份自信，不卑不亢；给自己一份洒脱，悠然前行。轻轻品，静静藏。为了看阳光，我来到这世上；为了与阳光同行，我笑对忧伤。15、总不能流血就喊痛，怕黑就开灯，想念就联系，疲惫就放空，被孤立就讨好，脆弱就想家，不要被现在而蒙蔽双眼，终究是要长大，最漆黑的那段路终要自己走完。5、从来不跌倒不算光彩，每次跌倒后能再站起来，才是最大的荣耀。6、这个世界到处充满着不公平，我们能做的不仅仅是接受，还要试着做一些反抗。7、一个最困苦、最卑贱、最为命运所屈辱的人，只要还抱有希望，便无所怨惧。8、有些人，因为陪你走的时间长了，你便淡然了，其实是他们给你撑起了生命的天空；有些人，分开了，就忘了吧，残缺是一种大美。9、照自己的意思去理解自己，不要小看自己，被别人的意见引入歧途。10、没人能让我输，除非我不想赢！11、花开不是为了花落，而是为了开的更加灿烂。12、随随便便浪费的时间，再也不能赢回来。13、不管从什么时候开始，重要的是开始以后不要停止；不管在什么时候结束，重要的是结束以后不要后悔。14、当你决定坚持一件事情，全世界都会为你让路。15、只有在开水里，茶叶才能展开生命浓郁的香气。,