UK air quality modelling for annual reporting 2005 on ambient air quality assessment under Council D.doc

UK air quality modelling for annual reporting 2004 on ambient air quality assessment under Council Directives 96/62/EC and 2002/3/EC relating to ozone in ambient airA report to the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, Welsh Assembly Government, The Scottish Executive and the Department of the Environment for Northern IrelandTony BushJaume TargaJohn StedmanAEAT/ENV/R/2053January 2006TitleUK air quality modelling for annual reporting 2004 on ambient air quality assessment under Council Directives 96/62/EC and 2002/3/EC relating to ozone in ambient airCustomerThe Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Welsh Assembly Government, The Scottish Executive and the Department of the Environment for Northern IrelandCustomer referenceCPEA15Confidentiality, copyright and reproductionCopyright AEA Technology plc All rights reserved.Enquiries about copyright and reproduction should be addressed to the Commercial Manager, AEA Technology plc.File referenceED47154004DD3_mapsresp2004v1.docReference numberAEAT/ENV/R/2053Address forNetcen CorrespondenceB551 HarwellDidcotOxonOX11 0QJTelephone0870 190 6423Facsimile 0870 190 6607Tony.bushaeat.co.uknetcen is a operating division of AEA Technology plcnetcen is certificated to ISO9001 & ISO 14001NameSignatureDateAuthorTony BushJaume TargaJohn R. StedmanReviewed byJohn R. StedmanApproved byGarry D HaymanExecutive SummaryDirective 96/62/EC on Ambient Air Quality Assessment and Management (the FrameworkDirective) establishes a framework under which the EU sets limit values or target values for the concentrations of specified air pollutants. Directive 2002/3/EC (the third Daughter Directive) sets target values and long-term objectives to be achieved for ozone. 2004 is the first year for which an annual air quality assessment for the third Daughter Directive pollutants is required. A questionnaire has been completed for submission to the EU containing the results of this air quality assessment along with those required for the first and second Daughter Directives. The assessment takes the form of comparisons of measured and modelled air pollutant concentrations with the target values and long-term objectives set out in the Directives. Air quality modelling has been carried out to supplement the information available from the UK national air quality monitoring networks.This report provides a summary of key results from the questionnaire and additional technical information on the modelling methods that have been used to assess ozone throughout the UK. This includes: Ø Details of modelling methodsØ Information on the verification of the models used and comparisons with data quality objectivesØ Detailed modelling results and comparison with target values and long-term objectives.Maps of background ozone concentrations in 2004 on a 1 km x 1 km grid have been prepared. The following metrics set out by the third Daughter Directive have been modelled;Ø Number of days above 120 mgm-3 in 2004Ø Number of days above 120 mgm-3 per year averaged over three years 2002-2004Ø AOT40 wheat crops in 2004Ø AOT40 wheat crops averaged over five years 2000-2004The models used in this assessment have been selected based on a critical appraisal of the techniques available within the UK.The UK has been divided into 43 zones for air quality assessment. There are 28 agglomeration zones (large urban areas) and 15 non-agglomeration zones. The status of the zones status has been determined from a combination of monitoring data and model results. The results of this assessment are summarised in Tables E1 and E2 in terms of exceedences of Target Values (TV) and Long-term Objectives (LTO). Table E1 Summary results of air quality assessment relative to the Target Values for ozone for 2010Target Value Number of zones exceedingMax Daily 8-hour mean Target Value none AOT40 Target Value none Table E2 Summary results of air quality assessment relative to the Long-term Objectives for ozoneLong-term Objective Number of zones exceedingMax Daily 8-hour mean Long-term Objective43 zones (36 measured + 7 modelled)AOT40 Long-term Objective7 zones (5 measured + 2 modelled)Contents1Introduction11.1THE FRAMEWORK AND DAUGHTER DIRECTIVES11.2THIS REPORT11.3PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS AND DEFINITION OF ZONES21.4MONITORING SITES72Mapping Methods82.1MODELLING THE NUMBER OF DAYS EXCEEDING 120 mG M-3 METRIC82.1.1Verification of mapped number of days > 120 mg m-3 values132.1.2Detailed comparison of modelling results with Target Values and Long-term Objectives142.2MODELLING THE AOT40 WHEAT CROPS METRIC162.2.1Verification of mapped AOT40 values202.2.2Detailed comparison of modelling results with limit values213Lists of zones in relation to Target Values and Long-term objectives233.1RESULTS FOR 2004233.2MEASURED EXCEEDENCES OF TARGET VALUES AND LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES254Acknowledgements36AppendicesAppendix 1 National Network Monitoring SitesAppendix 2 Monitoring Sites Used To Verify The Mapped Estimates1 Introduction1.1 THE FRAMEWORK AND DAUGHTER DIRECTIVESDirective 96/62/EC on Ambient Air Quality Assessment and Management (the FrameworkDirective (Council Directive 96/62/EC) establishes a framework under which the EU sets limit values or target values for the concentrations of specified air pollutants in ambient air. Directive 1999/30/EC (the first Daughter Directive, AQDD1 (Council Directive 1999/30/EC) sets the limit values to be achieved for sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and oxides of nitrogen, particles and lead. Directive 2000/69/EC (the second Daughter Directive, AQDD2) sets out the limit values to be achieved for benzene and carbon monoxide. Directive 2002/3/EC (the third Daughter Directive, AQDD3) sets target values (TVs) and long-term objectives (LTOs) to be achieved for ozone.The Framework Directive includes a requirement for Member States to undertake preliminary assessments of ambient air quality, prior to the implementation of the Daughter Directives under Article 5 this Directive. The objectives of these assessments are to establish estimates for the overall distribution and levels of pollutants, and to identify additional monitoring required to fulfil obligations within the Framework Directive. Reports describing the preliminary assessment for the UK for AQDD1, AQDD2 and AQDD3 have been prepared Bush T (2000). Article 5 Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide, PM10, sulphur dioxide and lead in the UK. Report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly Government and the Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland. AEA Technology, Netcen report AEAT/R/ENV/0165.http:/www.defra.gov.uk/environment/airquality/article5/index.htm, Bush T (2002) Preliminary Assessment of benzene and carbon monoxide levels in the UK. Report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly Government and the Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland. AEA Technology, Netcen report AEAT/ENV/R/1333/Issue 1 http:/www.airquality.co.uk/archive/reports/cat09/art5_dd2_v3aeat.pdf, Bush T and Kent A (2003). Preliminary Assessment of ozone levels in the UK . Report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly Government and the Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland. AEA Technology, Netcen report AEAT/ENV/R/1528/Issue 1. http:/www.airquality.co.uk/archive/reports/cat09/0506130933_o3dd1_art5_rep2.pdf. Then Daughter Directives define the number of air quality monitoring sites required on the basis of the concentrations of pollutants and population statistics. The number of monitoring sites required is significantly reduced if other means of assessment, in addition to fixed monitoring sites, are also available. Air quality modelling has therefore been carried out to supplement the information available from the UK national air quality monitoring networks and contribute to the assessments required by the Framework and subsequent Daughter Directives.1.2 THIS REPORTThe first and second Daughter Directives make provision for an annual air quality assessment for NO2, PM10, SO2, CO and benzene. 2004 is the first year for which an annual air quality assessment is required for ozone as specified in the third Daughter Directive. This report details the results of annual air quality assessments undertaken to satisfy the UKs obligation under the Daughter Directives and focuses on the modelling methodology for ozone. The air quality assessments for NO2, PM10, SO2, CO and benzene are covered in a separate report Stedman et al (2005). UK air quality modelling for annual reporting 2004 on ambient air quality assessment under Council Directives 96/62/EC, 1999/30/EC and 2000/69/EC. Report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly Government and the Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland. AEA Technology, Netcen report. AEAT/ENV/R/2052/Issue 1. that can be found on the National Air Quality Archive.This report focuses on the modelling methodology for reporting under the AQDD3. Section 2 describe the modelling procedures used for estimation of ozone. These include:Ø Information on the calibration and verification of the models Ø Background ambient concentration mapsØ Detailed model results and identification of exceedences of TV The following metrics relevant to the annual reporting of data to the Commission have been investigated:Ø Number of days above 120 mgm-3 in 2004Ø Number of days above 120 mgm-3 per year averaged over three years 2002-2004Ø AOT40 wheat crops in 2004Ø AOT40 wheat crops averaged over five years 2000-2004The definitions of the metrics presented above and the Target Values and Long-term Objectives are given in Annex I of Directive. In addition, Annex II of the Directive presents Alert and Information Thresholds designed to inform the public and organisations representing sensitive population groups on occasions when there is increased a risk to human health from brief exposure to elevated levels of ozone. Annex Iand II are presented below.1.3 PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS AND DEFINITION OF ZONESThe preliminary assessment carried for AQDD1 defined a set of zones to be used for air quality assessments in the UK based on population and urban areas data from the 1991 UK Census. These data have now been updated using information on population from the 2001 Census and land-use data from the Devolved Administrations. Updated zones are listed in Table 1.1 and illustrated in Figure 1.1. Information on the definition of zones is included in form 2 of the questionnaire. The zone codes listed in Table 1.1 are used throughout the questionnaire. The population and area of each zone is also shown. The zones are of two types: agglomeration zones (continuous urban areas with a population in excess of 250,000) and non-agglomeration zones. There are 28 agglomeration zones and 15 non-agglomeration zones, giving a total of 43 zones in the UK. The non-agglomeration zones in England correspond to the Government Office Regions, while those in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were defined in conjunction with the Devolved Administrations. The preliminary assessment for ozone also defined the monitoring and modelling requirements for each zone based on an assessment of concentrations in relation to target values ands long-term objectives specified by AQDD3. The minimum monitoring requirement for ozone and NOx in the majority of zones was found to be at least one monitoring site per zone, with the monitoring results to be supplemented with information from modelling studies.Source; Directive 2002/3/ECSource; Directive 2002/3/ECFigure 1.1 UK zones and agglomerations for 2004 Table 1.1 Zones for AQDD3 reportingZoneZone codeAg or nonag*Area (km2)PopulationGreater London Urban AreaUK0001ag16288278251West Midlands Urban AreaUK0002ag5942284093Greater Manchester Urban AreaUK0003ag5572244931West Yorkshire Urban AreaUK0004ag3631499465TynesideUK0005ag217879996Liverpool Urban AreaUK0006ag184816216Sheffield Urban AreaUK0007ag165640720Nottingham Urban AreaUK0008ag169666358Bristol Urban AreaUK0009ag142551066Brighton/Worthing/LittlehamptonUK0010ag97461181Leicester Urban AreaUK0011ag102441213Portsmouth Urban AreaUK0012ag91442252Teesside Urban AreaUK0013ag111365323The PotteriesUK0014ag91362403Bournemouth Urban AreaUK0015ag113383713Reading/Wokingham Urban AreaUK0016ag97369804Coventry/BedworthUK0017ag76336452Kingston upon HullUK0018ag80301416Southampton Urban AreaUK0019ag77304400Birkenhead Urban AreaUK0020ag88319675Southend Urban AreaUK0021ag64269415Blackpool Urban AreaUK0022ag63261088Preston Urban AreaUK0023ag58264601Glasgow Urban AreaUK0024ag3661168270Edinburgh Urban AreaUK0025ag117452194Cardiff Urban AreaUK0026ag72327706Swansea Urban AreaUK0027ag84270506Belfast Urban AreaUK0028ag193580276EasternUK0029nonag191134850132South WestUK0030nonag235063980991South EastUK0031nonag186456016677East MidlandsUK0032nonag154913084598North West & MerseysideUK0033nonag131492826622Yorkshire & HumbersideUK0034nonag147872514947West MidlandsUK0035nonag121922271650North EastUK0036nonag82821269803Central ScotlandUK0037nonag93051813314North East ScotlandUK0038nonag185871001499HighlandUK0039nonag38269380062Scottish BordersUK0040nonag11145254690South WalesUK0041nonag122211578773North WalesUK0042nonag8368720022Northern IrelandUK0043nonag135791104991Total24269859211755* ag = agglomeration zone, nonag = non-agglomeration zone1.4 MONITORING SITESThe monitoring stations operating during 2004 for the purpose of AQDD3 are listed in Table A1.1 in Appendix 1. This information is included in form 3 of the questionnaire. Not all sites had sufficient data capture during 2004 for data to be reported. The data quality objective (DQO) for AQDD measurements is 90 % data capture. We have included all measurements with at least 75% data capture in the analysis in order to ensure that we can make maximum use of data from the monitoring sites operational during 2004 for reporting purposes. Table A1