全球酒店行业展望.ppt

Hospitality 2015Game changersor spectators?,2,5,6,13,21,28,35,41,48,55,56,60,65,70,75,81,Contents,ForewordExecutive summaryThe hospitality industryEmerging markets Time for a shift of emphasisDemographic drivers of change Targetingthe boomers and emerging middle classesBrand Differentiate to surviveTechnology Time to play catch upHuman capital A post-recessionary strategy for talentSustainability Taking a 360 degree viewPlanning for the unpredictable Exogenous events and cyclesThe interdependent industryFlying high after the recession How aviation trendswill shape hospitalityHotels and restaurants A tasty combination or arecipe for failure?Hotels and online travel agents From confrontationto collaborationCruising to success Lessons to be learnedHotels and gaming after the storm Prospectsand opportunitiesAcknowledgmentsThe Tourism,Hospitality and Leisure teamContributorsAbout usSources,180828384,1,ForewordWelcome to Hospitality 2015!Following the success of Hospitality 2010,published almost five yearsago and the feedback we received from you,we wanted to see if ourpredictions were accurate,and explore once again the trends whichwe believe will shape the hotel industry in the future.Once again Deloitte dedicated a team of professionals who have spent the past year creating a vision supported byresearch,analysis and structured interviews with industry leaders.We are pleased to report that our predictions back in 2010 were on point.The value of brand to the consumer,thegrowth of emerging markets,the importance of consumer-facing technology and the sourcing,development andretention of human capital have led to success and differentiation in the marketplace.As we look to 2015,we have extended our focus to sustainability,exogenous events and cycles,and have reachedout to our industry experts in the sectors which make up the wider travel experience to ensure that we do not losesight of the impact on our industry from those sectors success or failure.The combination of global economic uncertainty and the resultant impact on the consumer means that,as an industry,action is needed to respond to the new world order.More than ever before,the consumer will be value-consciousirrespective of segment.Simply put,the opportunity is to be a game changer or a spectator.Which will you be?We hope you find this executive summary from the full report useful and we look forward to any feedback you mayhave,and the opportunity to discuss our recommendations and findings with you in more detail.The full report isavailable online at www.deloitte.co.uk/hospitality2015.Finally I and the rest of the tourism,hospitality and leisureeditorial team below,would like to conclude by thanking all those who contributed to the report.We hope you enjoy reading this report.Best regards,Alex KyriakidisGlobal Managing DirectorTourism,Hospitality&Leisure,Adam WeissenbergVice Chairman,US Leader,Marvin RustHospitality GlobalManaging Partner,Nick Van MarkenGlobal ManagingPartner,Corporate,Tim SteelLead Audit Partner,Robert BryantGlobal Lead Partner,Consulting,Kevin HaimesDirector,&Lead Tax Partner,Finance,Emma KennySenior Manager,Philippa GravesGlobal MarketingManager,Celine FenechResearch Manager,Nicole BellUS Senior SectorSpecialist,Grace HuangUS MarketingManager,Hospitality 2015 Game changers or spectators?,alike.,Executive summaryThe next five years will herald the era of a consumer-led brandfocus for the hospitality industry.Consumers are changing fasterthan ever before in both attitude and behaviours.,Engaging the new consumerThe hospitality industry,traditionally more focused onthe physical product,is waking up to a consumer who isdemanding consistent delivery of the brand promiseand,in the upscale to luxury segments,the experientialdimension will define a successful brand as much as thefiner points of product design.By the end of 2009,consumer demand had largelystabilised and occupancy rates are starting to recover in2010.We expect that 2011 will show a stronger,sustained recovery.Despite this optimistic outlook,aseconomic conditions continue to remain uncertain andgovernments face an uphill battle to pay off their hugedeficits,value-conscious consumers will remain a keyfeature in the post-recessionary landscape across allsegments of the market.Which way now?As consumer demand recovers it will be reshaped bytwo key demographic trends.In established marketssuch as the UK and US,the rise of the affluent,time-richand travel-hungry Baby Boomer generation aged from45 to 64 will evolve and grow.By 2015 in the USalone,boomers are expected to control 60 per cent ofthe nations wealth,and accounting for 40 per cent ofspending.1 With more time for leisure as they approachretirement,spending can be expected to be morefocused around travel.In emerging markets such as India and China however,there will be a significant rise of the middle classes,generating an increase in demand for both business andleisure travel.Gross Domestic Product(GDP)per capita inChina is forecast to more than double between 2010and 2015 providing the population with greaterdisposable income to spend on hospitality,while India is,Indeed the Indian Government has identified a shortageof 150,000 hotel rooms,with most of the under-supplyin the budget sector.3 Understanding the desires andmotivations of the Chinese and Indian traveller will befundamental to success in these markets.While the growth in these emerging markets issignificant,this should not distract from the absolute sizeof the mature markets.It is forecast that the share ofglobal tourism GDP will shift by less than five per centfrom mature hospitality markets to emerging marketsby 2015.4The name of the gameFaced with these new patterns of consumer behaviour,the most successful brands in 2015 will be those thatare able to most efficiently engage with consumersand clearly differentiate their offering from theircompetitors.Delivering their brand experienceconsistently and at a transparent price point will bevital to success.At the upper-end of the market,brand will be the coredriver of growth as markets become saturated.In themid-market and budget-end of the market wheredifferentiation is harder to achieve however,brands mustfocus on implementing consistently simpler but morecompelling brand promises,and combine value withexperience to entice consumers.Here,the benefit ofloyalty programme will continue to be a keydifferentiator for the consumer.The new Lifestyle brands will be an increasing force inthe market,continuing their growth in both number andscale to 2015.Their ability to achieve a strong revenueper available room(revPAR)often with relatively lowconversion costs,will appeal to operators and owners,forecast to have 50 million outbound tourists by the endof the decade.Each is a potentially huge feeder market.2Key to the brand promise is the talent delivering it.,While much of the development until recently hasfocused on the upscale and luxury market,the greatestpotential in these markets lies in the growth of brandedmid-market and budget product aimed primarily at thedomestic traveller.,However average staff turnover in the industry is stillat 31 per cent.5 With staff costs accounting for 45 percent of operating expenses and the strong correlationbetween staff retention and guest satisfaction,operatorsneed to consider how best to recruit,reward and retain,talent to ensure consistent guest satisfaction.62,3,The world onlineThere are currently more than 1.5 billion people aroundthe globe with access to the internet.With this forecastto increase by around 50 per cent by 2015,operatorsneed to embrace the world online and ensure theydeliver their brand through multiple(and ever-changing)channels.7The social media frenzy has taken the world by stormthe last few years.By 2015 this will become trulyintegrated in the travel and hospitality decision-makingprocess,representing both threats and opportunities forthe industry.The transparency of social media canhighlight any inconsistencies between the brand pledgeand its execution across geographic boundaries.Websites such as TripAdvisor are often the newcustomers first point of call.Whilst this represents a realchallenge for brand owners,it also offers unparalleledopportunities for consumer feedback and opens newchannels of communication between the brand and its,customers.As social media websites expand and access to theinternet and online distribution channels becomes moreaccessible,a new breed of confident,empowered andsavvy travellers is emerging.Gone are the days wheneveryone walks into a high-street travel agent and flicksthrough brochures to book their flights and hotel as apackage in one transaction.Savvy consumers are nowunbundling the whole booking experience,self-booking directly with suppliers or through new channelssuch as network carrier websites.In recent years,onlineconsumers have also become increasingly value-conscious,with the internet providing unlimited scopefor price comparison and greater transparency of theguest experience on a global scale.The use of technology is also changing and this needsto be addressed throughout the consumers journey.Mobile technology will increasingly be at the heart ofthe consumer-brand interaction and offers a plethora ofopportunities for customisation,communication,promotion and loyalty.However,the overall spend ontechnology in the sector still lags behind other sectors.A numbers gameIt is no surprise that the trend towards choosing value-for-money products has accelerated during therecession as discretionary leisure and business travelbudgets have been cut.The luxury hotel market and,While growth in the luxury market is expected torecover,the drivers and shape of this market willinevitably have been changed by the extendedrecession.Luxury hotel brands may become moredependent on a core wealthy clientele who arerelatively immune to economic volatility and we arelikely to see a shift away from the conspicuousconsumption of the late-1990s.Continued scrutiny ofcorporate travel budgets and the need for large off-sitemeetings also seems likely to be here for some time.Consumers are increasingly environmentally aware,which will present further challenges for the industry.By 2015,regulatory,economic and stakeholderpressures are likely to create a virtuous circle that willbegin to shape new expectations amongst both leisureand business consumers.Few will be prepared to pay apremium for green hotels but values-plus-value is likelyto become a growing consumer mantra.Alongside these known challenges and risks,theindustry also has to manage the impact of theunknown.Economic uncertainty,volatile oil prices,fluctuating exchange rates and variable demand presentongoing challenges to owners,operators and investorsalike.Events such as terrorism,pandemics and naturaldisasters result in sudden shifts in demand.While theseare impossible to predict,they need to be expected andplanned for.,associated industries such as gaming and premium airtravel have been hit particularly hard.On the flip side,low cost air travel and products with clear value-for-money appeal such as all-inclusive cruises or resort-based holidays have remained relatively resilient.Hospitality 2015 Game changers or spectators?,The game-changers agendaTo be ahead of the game in 2015 and beyond,companies who are able to understand and meetthe needs of these new consumers will be the truegame-changers.To be one of them,companies needto ensure that they are able to respond creatively tonew consumer behaviours and trends.So,what are the new rules of the game?The consumer Global budget hotel brands will emerge asoperators re-focus emerging market strategies onshortages in that segment.Game changers willmove quickly to take advantage of faster economicgrowth prospects and supply shortages in emergingmarkets,exploiting the potential for domestic travelwhilst building international brand recognition,Enhance in-room technologies as consumerexpectations continue to be raised across allsegments.As the budget/economy segmentincorporates features once considered the preservesolely of the luxury hotel,the upscale guest will seekfurther innovation not available in the mass market.However,technology for its own sake and gimmickscan prove costly and damaging to the brand.Ultimately,the customer will determine what thehotel room of the future will look like.Hoteliersshould try and keep it simple to use.The business Invest in talent management.Engage employeeswith the brand and deliver consistent standards ofcustomer service across global portfolios.Developinnovative talent programmes and re-design operatingmodels to effectively execute the talent strategy.,amongst outbound tourists.Develop an environmentally responsible brand,A game-changing approach to loyaltyprogrammes will be seen across all segments.Many upscale guests prefer recognition to reward,and a direct emotional appeal and the need to feelspecial can drive loyalty.However,the focus ofguests in the mid-market and budget segments willremain on value and rewards offered.Operators mayneed to get use to price promiscuity.,and embed a 360-degree view of sustainabilitywithin the business model.Price,quality,brand andconvenience will continue to drive consumerspending,but sustainability will increasingly be partof the decision-making process.Develop better integrated IT systems and sharedservices.Upgrade or replace creaking core legacy,systems;upgrade to self-healing technology.Understand different generational needs and,values.The boomers are a key segment and shouldbe targeted with experiential life-enhancingproducts,designed to appeal to their forever youngattitudes.Consider Lifestyle brand opportunities.If donewell this segment can deliver a strong return oninvestment.However,the challenge is to keep,Develop and invest in research and development(R&D).The industry needs to adopt more of an R&Dfocus to have a chance of staying ahead of theirconsumers needs and desires.Invest in reinforcing data security.Ensure that theorganisation has taken all the necessary safeguards toprotect guests and the reputation of the brand.,Lifestyle brands current and relevant.Yield management tools will be developed and,Embrace rather than resist the influence of socialmedia.Engage consumers in a dialogue that buildsawareness and community,increases web traffic andsearch rankings,and draws in potential new guests.,extended to improve cost management.Reviewcosts and free-up working capital throughimprovements in operational efficiency.Implementcost management systems driven by Artificial,Intelligence-based technology.Develop a multi-channel approach with increasing,use of mobile smart phone technology.Developingthis capacity will enable hoteliers to create a greaterdegree of loyalty,by ensuring their services fit thequick response needs of todays on-the-moveconsumer.,Minimise the shocks of unpredictable events.Best practice in a crisis includes organisationalre-structuring,busin