20202030风能发展规划.ppt

Pure Power,Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030,A report by the European Wind Energy Association-2009 update,Pure Power,Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030,A report by the European Wind Energy Association-2009 update,Text and analysis:Prof.Arthouros Zervos and Christian KjaerContributors:Sarah Azau,Julian Scola,Jesus QuesadaProject coordinator:Raffaella BianchinDesign and production:www.inextremis.bePublished in November 2009,4,Foreword,I am delighted to introduce this latest edition of PurePower,the most up-to-date scenarios on the futureof wind energy in Europe,produced by the European,Europe is also central to reducing our energy depend-ence on fossil fuel exporting nations in less stableregions of the world.,Wind Energy Association(EWEA).The European Commission is convinced that there is,Wind power has experienced dramatic growth overrecent years with more new installations than anyother electricity-generating technology,includingcoal,gas and nuclear,in 2008.We at the EuropeanCommission are keen to see an expansion of renew-able energies as a way to fight climate change,enhanceEuropes energy security,and improve our competitive-ness,which is why we support this publication of windindustry growth scenarios.I personally find it hugelyencouraging seeing more ambitious growth targets forthe sector than previously predicted by EWEA.In the European Union we have established the targetof achieving a 20%share of renewable energies in theoverall energy mix by 2020.To reach this we estimatethat 34%of Europes electricity needs must be metby renewable technologies,with wind power meetingmuch of the increase.Further benefits will arise from the switch to greenenergy including significant employment opportuni-ties.Creating energy from sources indigenous to,a huge potential for wind energy in Europe,includingoffshore wind.However we are also aware of thesignificant obstacles the industry faces in meeting itstargets.Europe needs a Europe-wide electricity gridand interconnectors between Member States,andproperly functioning electricity markets,to cope withlarger amounts of wind power.Planning processes forwind farms also need to be streamlined.Reading this publication,a clear and concise analysisof the future projections for wind energy in Europe,haspersuaded me that wind energy is heading in the rightdirection,and one that is essential for the sustain-ability of our future generations.Christopher JonesEuropean CommissionDirector,New and Renewable Sources of Energy,Energy Efficiency and InnovationDG TRENPURE POWER 2009,5,ContentsPicturing Europes Energy Future Pure Power.61.National Wind Energy Scenarios for 2020.82.The EU Energy Mix.143.The Current Status of Wind Power.194.The Evolution of Wind Energy Targets.305.Three Scenarios for the Development of the EU Wind Power Market(2009-2013).366.EWEAs 2020 Target.38,7.EWEAs 2030 Target,.44,8.Wind Powers Share of EU Electricity Demand.499.Contribution of Wind Power to Electricity Generation Capacity.5410.Wind Power and CO2.5711.Avoided Fuel Costs.60,12.Wind Energy Investments up to 2030,.64,13.Wind Energy After 2030.68Annex 1:Cumulative Installations of Wind Power in the EU.71Annex 2:Annual Installations of Wind Power in the EU.72Annex 3:Wind Energy Installations 2000-2030.73,Annex 4:Wind Energy Production and Share of Electricity Consumption 2000-2030,.74,Annex 5:Wind Energy Investments up to 2030.75,Annex 6:CO2 Avoided from Wind,.76,References.77PURE POWER 2009,6,Picturing Europes EnergyFuture Pure Power,Europes current electricity supply structure still bearsthe characteristics of the time in which it was devel-oped.It is national in nature,the technologies appliedare ageing and the markets supporting it are underde-veloped.Given the international nature of the energychallenges that the EU is facing,it is astounding that,22 years after the Single European Act was signed,westill do not have a well-functioning internal market forelectricity in Europe.Europe is faced with the global challenges of climatechange,depleting indigenous energy resources,increasing fuel costs and the threat of supply disrup-tions.Over the next 12 years,332 GW of new electricitycapacity 42%of current EU capacity-needs to bebuilt to replace ageing power plants and meet theexpected increase in demand.Over the next 12 years,Europe must use the opportunity created by the largeturnover in capacity to construct a new,modern renew-able energy power supply and grid system capable ofmeeting the energy and climate challenges of the 21stcentury,while enhancing Europes competitivenessand creating hundreds of thousands of manufac-turing and related jobs.The new power system mustbe supported by a well functioning internal market inelectricity in which investors,rather than consumers,are exposed to carbon and fuel price risk.The 2009 EU Renewable Energy Directive aims toincrease the share of renewable energy in the EU from8.6%in 2005 to 20%in 2020.In 2007,the share ofrenewable energy had already reached 9.9%.At thatpace an increase of 0.65%-points per year the EUwill reach 18.35%renewables in 2020.The EuropeanCommission took on an ambitious political projectwhen it proposed a binding 20%target for renewablesand succeeded.However,from a technology point ofview,the 20%target is not ambitious.We can almostreach it just by continuing doing what we did in theperiod 2005 to 2007,when no binding Directive wasin place.Supported by national frameworks and the adoption ofthe 2001 EU Directive on the Promotion of Electricityfrom Renewable Energy Sources,wind energy tech-,than any other power generating technology,includingcoal,gas and nuclear power.From 2002 to 2007 thewind energy sector created more than 60,000 newdirect jobs in the EU,equal to 33 new jobs every dayof the year.In 2008,European manufacturers had a60%share of the 36 billion global market for windturbines.As the cheapest of the renewable electricity technolo-gies,onshore wind will be the largest contributor tomeeting the 34%share of renewable electricity neededby 2020 in the EU,as envisaged by the 2009 Directive.As a consequence of the adoption of the Directive,theEuropean Wind Energy Association(EWEA),in March2009,increased its 2020 target from 180 GW to 230GW,including 40 GW of offshore wind power.With thisreport,EWEA is now increasing its 2030 target from300 GW to 400 GW.By 2020,most of the EUs renewable electricity willbe produced by onshore wind farms.Europe must,however,use the coming decade to prepare for thelarge-scale exploitation of its largest indigenousresource,offshore wind power.We must stop thinkingof electrical grids as national infrastructure and startdeveloping them-onshore and offshore-to becomeEuropean corridors of electricity trade.And we muststart developing them now.The faster they are devel-oped,the faster we will have a domestic substitute iffuture fuel import supplies are disrupted or the costof fuel becomes prohibitively expensive,as the worldexperienced during 2008.With wind energy,Europe is in prime position to turnthe looming energy and climate crisis into an oppor-tunity for our companies,a benefit to the environmentand a source of increased welfare to our citizens.,nology has developed to a point where,in 2008,more new wind power capacity was installed in the EU,Arthouros ZervosEWEA President,Christian KjrEWEA Chief Executive OfficerPURE POWER 2009,7,FINLAND143,Wind power installed in Europe by end of2008(cumulative),NORWAY428,SWEDEN1,021,ESTONIA,RUSSIA11,78LATVIA 27,IRELAND,DENMARK3,180,LITHUANIA 54,FAROE ISLANDS4,1,002,UNITEDKINGDOM3,241,NETHERLANDS2,225BELGIUM,GERMANY23,903,POLAND472,UKRAINE90,384,CZECH,LUXEMBOURG35,REPUBLIC150,SLOVAKIA 3,FRANCE3,404,SWITZERLAND14,AUSTRIA995SLOVENIA0,HUNGARY127,ROMANIA10,CROATIA18BULGARIA,ITALY,158,PORTUGAL2,862,3,736,SPAIN16,740,GREECE985,TURKEY433,EU Capacity(MW)AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFrance,End20079822875701163,125591102,454,Installed200814104101034772033950,End200899538415801503,180781433,404,MALTA0CYPRUS0European Union:64,935 MWCandidate Countries:452 MWEFTA:442 MWTotal Europe:65,933 MW,GermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia,22,247871657952,72627513501,7472762,150850,1,665114622081,0100300500196712200,23,9039851271,0023,73627543502,2254722,8621030,End 2007Candidate Countries(MW)Croatia 17FYROM*0Turkey 147Total 164EFTA(MW)Iceland 0Liechtenstein 0Norway 326Switzerland 12Total 338Other(MW)Faroe Islands 4,Installed 2008 102862870010221040,End 200818043345200428144424,SpainSwedenUnited KingdomTotal EU-15,15,1317882,40655,854,1,6092368368,067,16,7401,0213,24163,857,UkraineRussiaTotalTotal Europe,891310657,125,1018,877,901110565,933,Total EU-12Total EU-27Of which offshore and near shorePURE POWER 2009,66356,5171,114,4178,484357,1,07864,9351,471,*FYROM=Former Yugoslav Republic of MacedoniaNote:Due to previous-year adjustments,project decommissioning of70 MW,re-powering and rounding figures up and down,the total for the2008 end-of-year cumulative capacity is not exactly equivalent to thesum of the 2007 end-of-year total plus the 2008 additions.,Photo:Vestas,8,1.NationalWind Energy,Scenarios,for 2020,PURE POWER 2009,1,2,3,9,The 2009 EU Renewable Energy Directive1 requiresMember States to submit National Renewable EnergyAction Plans2(NREAPs)to the European Commissionby 30 June 2010.All 27 EU Member States must provide estimates oftheir gross final energy consumption of all types ofenergy(both renewable and non-renewable),for eachyear between 2010 and 2020.They must provideexpected contributions for three different sectors:heating/cooling,electricity,and transport.They alsoneed to provide a target for each renewable energytechnology,including both onshore and offshore windenergy,and they must specify both installed capacity(MW)and electricity production(GWh).,approach to setting future targets for wind energy(seeChapter 4).It assumes a total installed capacity ofwind energy in the EU by 2020 of 230 GW,producing580 TWh of electricity.The“high”scenario acknowledges that wind power as the most affordable of the renewable electricitytechnologies is likely to meet a much higher shareof the EUs Renewable Energy Directive target thanthe 12%of electricity demand by 2020 indicated bythe European Commission3.For many of the coun-tries,the“high”scenario also takes into account windpower targets already announced by national govern-ments.In the“high”scenario,total installed windpower capacity will reach 265 GW by 2020,producing,681 TWh of electricity.In consultation with its corporate members and,national wind energy associations,EWEA has analysedthe wind energy markets in the 27 EU Member States.This chapter provides the results of this analysis in theform of two 2020 scenarios for each national market:a“low”scenario and a“high”scenario.The“low”scenario is based on EWEAs traditionally conservative Source:EU,2009a.Source:EC,2009a.Source:EC,2007a.PURE POWER 2009,The aim of this chapter is to provide nationalgovernments with some guidance on wind powerscontribution to meeting their binding national targets.For more details,including a breakdown of the nationalscenarios on onshore and offshore wind,see Table 1.1.,2008:995 MW MW MW,127,1.National MW MW,MW,10,TWh,PURE POWER 2009,AUSTRIA HUNGARY2020(L/H):3,500/4,000Wind Energy Scenarios for 20202008:(L/H):900/1,200 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):209/250 Avg annual 2009-2020(L/H):64/89,LUXEMBOURG2008:35 MW MW2020(L/H):300/700 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):22/55,2008 TWh(%):2.0 TWh(2.9%)2020 TWh(L/H):7.5/8.6 TWh(9.5/10.9%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):0.3 TWh(0.6%)2020 TWh(L/H):2.1/2.8 TWh(4.0/5.3%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):0.1 TWh(0.9%)2020 TWh(L/H):0.6/1.5 TWh(14.1/33.1%),TWh,BELGIUM2008:384 MW MW2020(L/H):3,900/4,500 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):293/343,IRELAND2008:1,002 MW MW2020(L/H):6,000/7,000 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):417/500,MALTA2008:0 MW2020(L/H):100/200 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):8/17,2008 TWh(%):0.8 TWh(0.9%)2020 TWh(L/H):11.3/13.0 TWh(10.4/11.9%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):2.7 TWh(9.3%)2020 TWh(L/H):17.6/20.4 TWh(47.8%/55.4%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):0 TWh(0%)2020 TWh(L/H):0.2/0.4 TWh(11.2/22.4%),TWh,BULGARIA2008:158 MW MW2020(L/H):3,000/3,500 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):237/279,ITALY2008:3,736 MW MW2020(L/H):15,500/18,000 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):980/1,189,NETHERLANDS2008:2,225 MW MW2020(L/H):9,500/11,400 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):606/765,2008 TWh(%):0.3 TWh(0.9%)2020 TWh(L/H):7.1/8.3 TWh(12.6/14.7%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):7.9 TWh(2.2%)2020 TWh(L/H):33.5/38.1 TWh(7.6/8.6%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):5.0 TWh(4.2%)2020 TWh(L/H):27.6/34.0 TWh(18.1/22.3%),TWh,CYPRUS2008:0 MW MW2020(L/H):300/500 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):25/42,LATVIA2008:27 MW MW2020(L/H):200/300 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):14/23,POLAND2008:472 MW MW2020(L/H):10,500/12,500 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):836/1,002,2008 TWh(%):0 TWh(0.0%)2020 TWh(L/H):0.6/1.0 TWh(8.9/14.8%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):0.1 TWh(0.8%)2020 TWh(L/H):0.5/0.8 TWh(5.0/8.9%),TWh,2008 TWh(%):1.0 TWh(0.7%)2020 TWh(L/H):25.4/30.1 TWh(12.5/14.8%),TWh,CZECH REPUBLIC2008:150 MW MW2020(L/H):1,600/1,800 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):121/138,By June 2010,the 27 EU Member States must provide the European,2008 TWh(%):0.3 TWh(0.4%)2020 TWh(L/H):3.5/3.9 TWh(3.4/3.8%),TWh,Commission with indicative targets in terms of both capacity(MW)andenergy production(MWh)-for all energy technologies,including onshoreand offshore wind energy.,DENMARK2008:3,180 MW MW2020(L/H):6,000/6,500 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):235/2772008 TWh(%):7.7 TWh(20.3%)TWh2020 TWh(L/H):17.0/18.5 TWh(42.5/46.2%)ESTONIA2008:78 MW MW2020(L/H):500/600 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):35/442008 TWh(%):0.2 TWh(1.8%)TWh2020 TWh(L/H):1.2/1.6 TWh(8.4/10.9%)FINLAND2008:143 MW MW2020(L/H):1,900/3,000 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):146/238,This map illustrates,for each of the 27 Member States,a)the currentcapacity(MW)and electricity production(TWh),b)the”Low”and”High”2020 targets for capacity and electricity and the corresponding share ofnational demand and c)the amount of average capacity needed to meetthe”Low”and”High”targets.In addition,the colour code of the mapindicates the average annual level of MW needed between 2009 and2020 to meet the”High”scenario.Low scenario for the EUFor the EU as a whole,the”Low”scenario requires installed capacity toincrease from 65 GW by end 2008 to 230 GW in 2020.That wouldrequire an average annual increase in capacity of 13.8 GW in 2009-2020.Wind energy production would increase from 137 TWh(2008)to 580 TWh(2020)and wind energys share of total electricity demandwould increase from 4.1%in 2008 to 14.2%in 2020.,2008 TWh(%):0.4 TWh(0.4%)2020 TWh(L/H):5.1/8.6 TWh(5.0/8.4%),TWh,High scenario for the EUFor the EU as a whole,the”High”scenario requires installed capacity toincrease from 65 GW by end 2008 to 265 GW in 2020.That would,FRANCE2008:3,404 MW MW2020(L/H):23,000/26,000 MWAvg annual 2009-2020(L/H):1,633/1,8832008 TWh(%):8.1 TWh(1.6%)TWh2020 TWh(L/H):62.4/72.3 TWh(9.9/11.4%)GERMANY2008:23,903 MW MW2020(L/H):49,000/52