A股市场1月流动性月报：短期流动性收紧预期或有改善0114.ppt

2,2,A,2013,1,A,2013,12,1,14M2,12,010-60838226,1.6,1,11,1.1,S1010510120004,0755-23835395,12,M2,34,12,M1,S1010510120038,021-S1010512050004010-S1010511090003,12,010-S1010512060002,IPO,010-,IPO4,1-5,8,IPO,IPO1,IPO-3,IPOIPO,12,A,A,2013,1,.1.1.2.3.3.3.4.4.5.5,A,IPO,.6,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,17,20,21,22,24 2,A,2013,1,.1.1.1.1.2.2.2,8,1,.2.3.3.4.4.4.4.5,16181923,ETF,121 2,12,.5.5.6.6.6.6.7.7.7,%,-400,A,2013,1,12,12,M2,1.6,1,12,11,1.1,2038,24582 124,3,11,1218,1995,M1,M2/,12,12,2000,1,2200%180%160%,2500020000150001000050000,150%100%50%0%-50%,140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%,-50002002,2004,2006,2008,2010,2012,-100%,07-04 08-04,09-04 10-04,11-04 12-04,3,WindM1,-M2,4,Wind,151050-5-10-152005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Wind,70006000500040003000200010000,10008006004002000-2002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Wind,1,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,2002,2002,2003,2003,2004,2004,2005,2005,2006,2006,2007,2007,2008,2008,2009,2009,2010,2010,2011,2011,2012,2012,12,A,2013,1,5,2.5%,3:3:2:212,2.5%6,0,20082011,20092012,2010,20000,10000,20082011,20092012,2010,150001000050000Wind72500200015001000500011-01 11-05 11-09 12-01 12-05 12-09 13-01Wind,50000-5000-10000-1500081,4001,2001,0008006004002000200,WindWind,2,A,2013,1,9,201230,10,12,7,87654,%,7,30 MA,14 12108,3210,6420,2007-01,2009-01,2011-01,2013-01,07-01,08-01,09-01,10-01,11-01,12-01,13-01,Wind,12,Wind,2012,8,3,2012/1/1,2012/2/1,2012/3/1,2012/4/1,2012/5/1,2012/6/1,2012/7/1,2012/8/1,2011/12/1,2012/9/1,2012/10/1,2012/11/1,A,2013,1,11,12,4.54,%,101,%,43.53,876,/,35003000,3.5,2.5,5,2500,32.522010-01,2011-01,2012-01,21.510.502013-01,4200032 150009-01 09-09 10-05 11-01 11-09 12-05 13-01,13,Wind,14,Wind,9876543,%,3,70,00065,00060,00055,000,2,10,50,000,08-01,09-01,10-01,11-01,12-01,13-01,Wind4,201201,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201301,2010/3,2010/9,2011/3,2011/9,2012/3,2012/9,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,1301,A,2013,1,15150000000100000000500000000A12,ETF,50%40%30%20%10%0%,IPO,60%65%,23.34%12,16,12,17,3002001000100,(,)2500240023002200210020001900,200150100500,IPO,200,Wind,1800,Wind,5,120427,050715,060227,060922,070420,080620,090306,090904,100319,100930,110401,121123,11Q3,2009-01,2009-04,2009-07,2009-10,2010-01,2010-04,2010-07,2010-10,2011-01,2011-04,2011-07,2011-10,2012-01,2012-04,2012-07,2012-10,2013-01,A,2013,1,18,ETF,19,12,50,ETF,2500,300,403020100-10-20-30-40-5001-13,04-13,07-13,mm-dd10-13,2400230022002100200019001800,90%85%80%75%70%65%60%,6000500040003000200010000,Wind,Wind,20,11,1,21,1,60%,/,3500,A,50%40%30%20%10%0%,3000250020001500,1,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000,mm-dd,01/01 05/01 09/01 01/01 05/01 09/01 01/01,A,Wind2,IPO,1,Wind1-2,6,12-10,12-11,12-12,13-01,13-02,13-03,13-04,13-05,13-06,13-07,13-08,13-09,13-10,13-11,13-12,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,01,02,03,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,13,13,13,A,2013,1,2250040030020010002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Wind242,(,)690059004900390029001900900,2310008006004002000,Wind,1,2,201510,50,Wind,mm dd,IPOIPO,1,8,IPO,IPO,1,-3,4,-5,IPOIPO7,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant toRule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC,no-action letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,