(宏观经济学东伊利诺伊大学).ppt

Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-1,CHAPTER 1,Introduction to Macroeconomics,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-2,Questions,How much richer are we than our parents?How much richer will our children be than our grandparents were?Will changing jobs be easy or hard in five years?How many of us will have jobs in five years?,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-3,Questions,Will the businesses we work for vanish as demand for the products they make dries up?Will inflation make us poor by destroying our savings or rich by eliminating our debts?,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-4,Macroeconomics.,is the subdiscipline of economics that tries to answer these six questionsis the branch of economics related to the economy as a whole,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-5,Macroeconomists.,try to figure out why overall economic activity rises and fallstry to understand what determines the level and rate of change of the price levelstudy other variables that play a major role in determining the overall levels of production,income,employment,and prices,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-6,Why Macroeconomics Matters,Cultural Literacyability to follow and participate in public debates and discussionsunderstanding of news reports on changes in the economy,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-7,Figure 1.1-The Daily Flow of Economic News,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-8,Why Macroeconomics Matters,Self-Interesteffects of macroeconomy on our daily livesunderstanding of changing opportunities as the economy fluctuates,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-9,Why Macroeconomics Matters,Civic Responsibilitymore informed votingmore responsible macroeconomic policy,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-10,Macroeconomic Policy,Growth Policypolicies to accelerate or decelerate long-run economic growthmost important policies for the long-run,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-11,Figure 1.2-Long-Run Economic Growth:Sweden and Argentina,1900-2000,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-12,Macroeconomic Policy,Stabilization Policypolicies to smooth out the business cycle by diminishing the depth of recessions and depressionsbusiness cycles are fluctuations in production and employmentbooms or expansions occur when production grows and unemployment fallsrecessions or depressions occur when production falls and unemployment rises,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-13,Figure 1.3-The American Business Cycle:Fluctuations in Total Production Relative to the Long-Run Growth Trend,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-14,Macroeconomics versus Microeconomics,Macroeconomistsexamine the economy as a wholefocus on the feedback from one component of the economy to anotherstudy the total level of production and employmentbelieve that imbalances between supply and demand may be resolved by changes in quantities rather than prices,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-15,Macroeconomics versus Microeconomics,Microeconomistsstudy the markets for single commodities and the behavior of individual households and firmsfocus on how competitive markets allocate resources to create consumer and producer surplusassume that imbalances between demand and supply are resolved by changes in prices,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-16,Economic Statistics and Economic Activity,Economic activity is the pattern of transactions in which things of real,useful value are created,transformed,and exchanged.National Income and Product Accounts(NIPA)reported by the U.S.Commerce Departments Bureau of Economic Analysis,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-17,Table 1.2-The Flow of Economic Data,2000-2001,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-18,Six Key Economic Variables,Real Gross Domestic Product(GDP)is corrected for changes in the price level(real)includes the replacement of worn-out and obsolete equipment and structures as well as new investment(gross)counts economic activity that happens in the United States(domestic)represents the production of final goods and services(product),Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-19,Six Key Economic Variables,Real Gross Domestic Productoften divided by the number of workers in the economymeasures how well the economy produces goods and services that people find usefuldoes not indicate the relative distribution of the nations economic productis an imperfect measure of economic well-being,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-20,Figure 1.4-Officially Measured Real GDP per Worker in the United States,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-21,Six Key Economic Variables,The Unemployment Rateto be unemployed,a person must want to work and be actively looking for a job(but have not yet found one)the labor force consists of those who are employed and those who are unemployedthe unemployment rate is equal to the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-22,Figure 1.5-The U.S.Unemployment Rate,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-23,Six Key Economic Variables,The Unemployment Ratefrictional unemployment occurs because workers and firms spend time searching for the best matchcyclical unemployment occurs during recessions and depressionsthe unemployment rate is the best indicator of how well the economy is doing relative to its productive potential,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-24,Six Key Economic Variables,The Inflation Rateis a measure of how fast the overall price level is risinghyperinflation occurs when the price level is rising by more than 20%per month,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-25,Figure 1.6-Inflation in the United States,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-26,Six Key Economic Variables,The Interest Rateis important because it governs the redistribution of purchasing power across timethe many different interest rates in the economy vary by duration and degree of riskoften move up and down together,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-27,Six Key Economic Variables,The Interest Ratenominal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of moneydoes not take into account the effects of inflationreal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of goods and servicesdoes take into account the effects of inflation,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-28,Figure 1.7-U.S.Real Interest Rates,1960-1999,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-29,Six Key Economic Variables,The Stock Marketis heard about most often(every day)is an index of expectations for the futurea high value means that investors expect economic growth to be rapid,profits to be high,and unemployment to be low,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-30,Figure 1.8-Real Stock Index Prices,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-31,Six Key Economic Variables,The Exchange Rategoverns the terms on which international trade and investment take placenominal exchange rate is the rate at which monies of different countries can be exchanged for one anotherreal exchange rate is the rate at which the goods and services produced in different countries can be exchanged for one another,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-32,Six Key Economic Variables,The Exchange Rateif domestic currency appreciatesits value in terms of other currencies increasesforeign-produced goods are relatively cheap for domestic buyersimports are likely to be highdomestic-made goods are relatively expensive for foreignersexports are likely to be low,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-33,Six Key Economic Variables,The Exchange Rateif domestic currency depreciatesits value in terms of other currencies declinesdomestic-produced goods are relatively cheap for foreign buyersexports are likely to be highforeign-made goods are relatively expensive for domestic buyersimports are likely to be low,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-34,Figure 1.9-The U.S.Real Exchange Rate:The Dollar against a Composite Indexof Foreign Currencies,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-35,The CurrentMacroeconomic Situation,The United States-2001economic growth has slowed to a very weak paceforecast for 2001 is that real GDP will grow by no more than 1.8%interest rates lowered through Fed policydue to lags,effects of lower interest rates will not be felt until end of 2001(at the earliest)inflation continues to be low,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-36,The CurrentMacroeconomic Situation,The United States-recent pastfrom early 1990s to 2000,there was an economic boomunemployment fell during the 1990slowest unemployment rate in two decades(4%)real wages increased only slightlyhelped to keep inflation low,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-37,The CurrentMacroeconomic Situation,Europeeconomic growth in countries belonging to the European Monetary Union slowinglow inflationless than 2%per yearrelatively high unemploymentnear 10%,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-38,The CurrentMacroeconomic Situation,Japanslow growth ratereal GDP grew only 1.8%in 2000real GDP is expected to grow only by 1.4%in 2001deflation is occurringthe overall price level fell by 0.7%in 2000,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-39,Chapter Summary,Macroeconomics is the study of the overall economy.There are three key reasons to study macroeconomicsto gain cultural literacyto understand how economic trends affect you personallyto exercise your responsibility as a voter and citizen,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,1-40,Chapter Summary,The key indicators in macroeconomics arereal GDPthe unemployment ratethe inflation ratethe interest ratethe level of the stock marketthe exchange rate,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-41,CHAPTER 2,Measuring the Macroeconomy,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-42,Questions,What key data do macroeconomists look at?How are key macroeconomic data estimated and calculated?What is the difference between“nominal”and“real”values?How are stock market values related to interest rates?,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-43,Questions,How are interest rates related to the price level and the inflation rate?How is unemployment related to total production?What is right-and what is wrong-with the key measure of economic activity,real GDP?,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-44,The Importance of Data,Economists use quantitative data to examine and understand behaviorpricesquantitiesvaluesData can be used in two waysmake quantitative forecaststest economic theories,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-45,Most Important Macroeconomic Data,real GDPthe unemployment ratethe inflation ratethe interest ratethe level of the stock marketthe exchange rate,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-46,Table 2.1-The Six Key Economic Variables,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-47,The Exchange Rate,The nominal exchange rate is the relative price of two different currenciesdetermined in the foreign exchange marketExample1.00 equals$1.20$1.00 equals 0.83,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-48,The Exchange Rate,Domestic exporters earn foreign currency when they export productsneed to trade the foreign currency for dollarsForeign producers earn dollars when U.S.residents import their productsneed to trade the dollars for foreign currency,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-49,Figure 2.1-The Market for Foreign Exchange,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-50,The Exchange Rate,The real exchange rate is the nominal exchange rate adjusted for changes in the value of the currencydepends on the nominal exchange rate and the price level,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-51,The Exchange Rate,Example 1nominal exchange rate changes from$1.20=1.00 to$2.40=1.00price level doublesreal exchange rate is unchangedExample 2nominal exchange rate remains at the same level($1.20=1.00)price level doublesreal exchange rate falls by half,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-52,The Exchange Rate,Example 3nominal exchange rate increases from$1.20=1.00 to$2.30=1.00price level remains the samereal exchange rate doubles,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-53,The Exchange Rate,To calculate the real exchange rate(),you need three pieces of informationprice level in the home country(P)price level abroad(P*)nominal exchange rate(e),Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-54,The Exchange Rate,There are many different currencies in the worldmany different exchange ratesEconomists construct an exchange rate index to represent“the”exchange rateeach country receives a weight equal to its share of total U.S.trade,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-55,The Exchange Rate,The exchange rate index is by averaging each countrys current exchange rate relative to its exchange rate in the base year(1992),Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-56,Figure 2.2-The Exchange Rate Index,1992-1998,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-57,The Stock Market,The most representative index of the U.S.stock market is the Standard and Poors Composite Index(S&P 500)The most commonly discussed index of the U.S.stock market is the Dow-Jones Industrial Average,Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.,2-58,The Stock Market,Stock market averages are in nominal termsmust divide by some measure of the price level to get the real value of the stock marketThe real value o