亚太原油产业市场分析.ppt

INDUSTRY PROFILECrude Oil inAsia-PacificReference Code:0200-0587Publication Date:March,Datamonitor USA245 Fifth Avenue4th FloorNew York,NY 10016USA,Datamonitor Europe119 Farringdon RoadLondon EC1R 3DAUnited Kingdom,Datamonitor Middle Eastand North AfricaDatamonitorPO Box 24893Dubai,UAE,Datamonitor Asia PacificLevel 46,2 Park StreetSydney,NSW 2000Australia,t:+44 20 7551 9000,t:+1 212 686 7400f:+1 212 686 2626e:,f:+44 20 7675 7500e:,t:+49 69 9754 4517f:+49 69 9754 4900e:datamonitormena,t:+61 2 8705 6900f:+61 2 8705 6901e:,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 1,EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARYMarket valueThe Asia-Pacific crude oil market grew by 35.2%in 2010 to reach a value of$710.8 billion.Market value forecastIn 2015,the Asia-Pacific crude oil market is forecast to have a value of$938.3 billion,an increase of 32%since 2010.Market volumeThe Asia-Pacific crude oil market grew by 3.3%in 2010 to reach a volume of 9 billion barrels.Market volume forecastIn 2015,the Asia-Pacific crude oil market is forecast to have a volume of 11.2 billion barrels,an increaseof 23.6%since 2010.Market segmentationChina accounts for 37.5%of the Asia-Pacific crude oil market value.Market rivalryCrude oil is the most actively traded commodity in the world and the market is dominated by largeconglomerates that are competing for ever dwindling resources which makes market rivalry strong.,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 2,2,7,7,8,9,12,13,20,20,25,29,31,36,37,39,CONTENTSTABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYMARKET OVERVIEWMarket definitionResearch highlightsMarket analysis,MARKET VALUEMARKET VOLUMEMARKET SEGMENTATIONFIVE FORCES ANALYSISSummaryBuyer powerSupplier powerNew entrantsSubstitutesRivalryLEADING COMPANIESChina National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC)Nippon Oil CorporationPerusahaan Pertambangan Minyak Dan Gas Bumi Negara(Pertamina)China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation(Sinopec)MARKET FORECASTSMarket value forecastMarket volume forecastAPPENDIXMethodologyIndustry associationsRelated Datamonitor researchDisclaimerAsia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,101113151617181936383839400200-0587-2010Page 3,41,41,CONTENTSABOUT DATAMONITOR,Premium ReportsSummary ReportsDatamonitor consultingAsia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,41410200-0587-2010Page 4,CONTENTSLIST OF TABLES,Table 1:Table 2:Table 3:Table 4:Table 5:Table 6:Table 7:Table 8:Table 9:Table 10:Table 11:Table 12:Table 13:Table 14:Table 15:Table 16:Table 17:Table 18:,Asia-Pacific crude oil market value:$billion,200610AsiaPacific crude oil market volume:billion barrels,200610Asia-Pacific crude oil market segmentation:%share,by value,2010China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC):key factsChina National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC):key financials($)China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC):key financials(CNY)China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC):key financial ratiosNippon Oil Corporation:key factsNippon Oil Corporation:key financials($)Nippon Oil Corporation:key financials()Nippon Oil Corporation:key financial ratiosPerusahaan Pertambangan Minyak Dan Gas Bumi Negara(Pertamina):key factsChina Petroleum&Chemical Corporation(Sinopec):key factsChina Petroleum&Chemical Corporation(Sinopec):key financials($)China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation(Sinopec):key financials(CNY)China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation(Sinopec):key financial ratiosAsia-Pacific crude oil market value forecast:$billion,201015AsiaPacific crude oil market volume forecast:billion barrels,201015,101112202323232526262729313333343637,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 5,Figure 7:,24,24,27,28,34,35,36,37,CONTENTSLIST OF FIGURES,Figure 1:Figure 2:Figure 3:Figure 4:Figure 5:Figure 6:Figure 8:Figure 9:Figure 10:Figure 11:Figure 12:Figure 13:Figure 14:Figure 15:Figure 16:Figure 17:,Asia-Pacific crude oil market value:$billion,200610AsiaPacific crude oil market volume:billion barrels,200610Asia-Pacific crude oil market segmentation:%share,by value,2010Forces driving competition in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010Drivers of buyer power in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010Drivers of supplier power in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010Drivers of degree of rivalry in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC):revenues&profitabilityChina National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC):assets&liabilitiesNippon Oil Corporation:revenues&profitabilityNippon Oil Corporation:assets&liabilitiesChina Petroleum&Chemical Corporation(Sinopec):revenues&profitabilityChina Petroleum&Chemical Corporation(Sinopec):assets&liabilitiesAsia-Pacific crude oil market value forecast:$billion,201015AsiaPacific crude oil market volume forecast:billion barrels,201015,101112131516171819,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 6,MARKET OVERVIEWMARKET OVERVIEWMarket definitionThe market volume figures within this report represent crude oil consumption.The market values arecalculated using regional spot oil prices averaged over the whole year.As oil markets are experiencing aperiod of price volatility future trends are difficult to predict,therefore the forecasts given in this report areonly given as an indication of the markets possible future growth.All currency conversions used in theproduction of this report have been calculated using constant annual 2010 average exchange rates.For the purposes of this report,Asia-Pacific comprises Australia,China,India,Indonesia,Japan,NewZealand,Singapore,South Korea,Taiwan,and Thailand.,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 7,MARKET OVERVIEWResearch highlightsThe Asia-Pacific crude oil market had total revenues of$710.8 billion in 2010,representing a compoundannual growth rate(CAGR)of 8.1%for the period spanning 2006-2010.Market consumption volumes increased with a CAGR of 2.1%between 2006 and 2010,to reach a total of9 billion barrels in 2010.The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate,with an anticipated CAGR of 5.7%for the five-year period 2010-2015,which is expected to drive the market to a value of$938.3 billion by the end of2015.,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 8,MARKET OVERVIEWMarket analysisFollowing a period of strong growth,the Asia-Pacific crude oil market fell into decline in 2009.The marketrecovered in 2010 and is expected to grow fairly strongly through to 2015.The Asia-Pacific crude oil market had total revenues of$710.8 billion in 2010,representing a compoundannual growth rate(CAGR)of 8.1%for the period spanning 2006-2010.In comparison,the Chinese andSouth Korean markets grew with CAGRs of 11.7%and 7.8%respectively,over the same period,to reachrespective values of$266.3 billion and$70.1 billion in 2010.Market consumption volumes increased with a CAGR of 2.1%between 2006 and 2010,to reach a total of9 billion barrels in 2010.The markets volume is expected to rise to 11.2 billion barrels by the end of 2015,representing a CAGR of 4.3%for the 2010-2015 period.The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate,with an anticipated CAGR of 5.7%for the five-year period 2010-2015,which is expected to drive the market to a value of$938.3 billion by the end of2015.Comparatively,the Chinese and South Korean markets will grow with CAGRs of 8.4%and 5.7%respectively,over the same period,to reach respective values of$399.5 billion and$92.4 billion in 2015.,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 9,MARKET VALUEMARKET VALUEThe Asia-Pacific crude oil market grew by 35.2%in 2010 to reach a value of$710.8 billion.The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 200610 was 8.1%.,Table 1:,Asia-Pacific crude oil market value:$billion,200610,Year20062007200820092010CAGR:200610Source:Datamonitor,$billion520.1600.2846.6525.7710.8,billion391.7452.0637.6395.9535.3,%Growth15.4%41.1%(37.9%)35.2%8.1%DATAMONITOR,Figure 1:,Asia-Pacific crude oil market value:$billion,200610,Source:DatamonitorAsia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,DATAMONITOR0200-0587-2010Page 10,MARKET VOLUMEMARKET VOLUMEThe Asia-Pacific crude oil market grew by 3.3%in 2010 to reach a volume of 9 billion barrels.The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 200610 was 2.1%.,Table 2:,AsiaPacific crude oil market volume:billion barrels,200610,Year20062007200820092010CAGR:200610Source:Datamonitor,billion barrels8.38.58.68.79.0,%Growth2.7%1.1%1.3%3.3%2.1%DATAMONITOR,Figure 2:,AsiaPacific crude oil market volume:billion barrels,200610,Source:DatamonitorAsia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,DATAMONITOR0200-0587-2010Page 11,MARKET SEGMENTATIONMARKET SEGMENTATIONChina accounts for 37.5%of the Asia-Pacific crude oil market value.Japan accounts for a further 17.8%of the Asia-Pacific market.,Table 3:CategoryChinaJapanIndia,Asia-Pacific crude oil market segmentation:%share,by value,2010,%Share37.517.812.1,South KoreaRest of Asia-PacificTotalSource:Datamonitor,9.922.7100%DATAMONITOR,Figure 3:,Asia-Pacific crude oil market segmentation:%share,by value,2010,Source:DatamonitorAsia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,DATAMONITOR0200-0587-2010Page 12,FIVE FORCES ANALYSISFIVE FORCES ANALYSISThe crude oil market will be analyzed taking producers and marketers of crude oil as players.The keybuyers will be taken as oil refiners and petrochemical companies,and oil exploration and productionequipment and services companies as the key suppliers.Summary,Figure 4:,Forces driving competition in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010,Source:Datamonitor,DATAMONITOR,Crude oil is the most actively traded commodity in the world and the market is dominated by largeconglomerates that are competing for ever dwindling resources which makes market rivalry strong.The crude oil market is characterized by the presence of large,diversified international companies withhighly vertically integrated operations,incorporating oil exploration,production,refining,transportation,forecourt fuel retailing as well as marketing.Major suppliers are oil exploration,production equipment andservices companies,including Baker Hughes,Technip,Schlumberger and Halliburton.The presence ofpowerful incumbents acts as a significant barrier to entry.Fixed costs and exit barriers tend to be highand economies of scale are highly important for successful entry to the market.Companies engaged inthe crude oil business experience a high level of rivalry as the commoditys price has a high rate offluctuation.In 2008,the international crude oil market experienced increased demand for specialistequipment and services as commodity prices increased exponentially.This pushed drilling companies toexplore commodity deposits previously deemed too costly,boosting suppliers revenues.Fiscal year 2010showed an increase in oil prices,on the back of events such as the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and a global,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 13,FIVE FORCES ANALYSISincrease in the rates of inflation.Substitutes to this market include alternative energy sources;however,the majority of the worlds current energy production uses non-renewable sources,primarily oil,gas andcoal.Shifting towards alternatives may constitute high switching costs.,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 14,FIVE FORCES ANALYSISBuyer power,Figure 5:,Drivers of buyer power in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010,Source:Datamonitor,DATAMONITOR,The market is characterized by the presence of large,diversified international companies with highlyvertically integrated operations.Due to their integrated downstream operations,major players are nothighly dependent upon downstream consumers of crude oil,for whom buyer power is therefore reduced.Amongst buyers there are both individual as well as institutional end users who are able to make largepurchases.Commodities such as crude oil are relatively undifferentiated products(differentiation of crudeoil is limited to sulphur component and fractional density),the price of which is set according to supplyand demand by the mercantile exchanges of New York,London and Dubai,which effectively amelioratesbuyer power on the basis of price.Brand loyalty is not likely to be a significant factor here(unless thereare loyalty programs in place),strengthening buyer power somewhat.Buyers may be likely to switch ifpresented with a better offer;however,the presence of contracts can reduce this likelihood.Backwardintegration is also unlikely.Overall,buyer power is moderate.,Asia-Pacific-Crude Oil Datamonitor.This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied,0200-0587-2010Page 15,FIVE FORCES ANALYSISSupplier power,Figure 6:,Drivers of supplier power in the crude oil market in Asia-Pacific,2010,Source:Datamonitor,DATAMONITOR,Major suppliers to this market are oil equipment and service providers,including:Schlumberger,BakerHughes,Smith International and Halliburton.Such suppliers are typically large,highly diversifiedcompanies,which affords them greater bargaining power within the sector.Baker Hughes,for example,has a wide product portfolio catering to the worldwide oil and natural gas industry.The companymanufactures and supplies drill bits,primarily roller cone bits,and fixed-cutter polycrystalline diamondcompact(PDC)bits.It supplies them to the oil and natural gas industry worldwide.Baker Hughes alsosupplies drilling and evaluation services,which include directional drilling,measurement-while-drilling(MWD),and logging-while-drilling(LWD)services.The company provides formation evaluation andwireline completion and production services for oil wells.There is a small number of large equipment andservices companies,which,combined with high demand from the petroleum industry,enhances theirsupplier power.However,larger companies involved in the crude oil market have backward-integratedpetroleum service operations,and use third-party services companies to supplement their own activities.This,combined with the high importance of the crude oil market to supplier revenues,reduces thesuppl